U.S. DOLLAR INDEX FUTURESStrong dollar Saud in recent days but has made a strong correction and Hwa is rising now there is a high probability of Saud to 110.47
Dx1
USD Cup & Handle BreakoutIt has been a rather long time since I looked at the US Dollar Index Futures chart. Pulled out the chart and surprise!
Since June 2022, the weekly USD chart had actually completed a Cup & Handle pattern, retested the resistance turned support at 105, and now is on a tear rocketing upwards. Technical indicators although stretched for a bit, appear to have renewed momentum, crossing over and upwards in alignment.
The daily chart shows some level of stalling in late August, and pushed further upwards late last week, closing at a multi-year high.
In an inflationary environment, with the Fed bent on continuing to raise rates and accepting painful costs, the USD is likely to rise further. Cup & Handle pattern projections put it above 120. This has many many implications, both as the USD rises, and when the USD is categorically above 110, 115 and 120. This USD move will be the backdrop of many new trends over the next couple of months to years, giving traders and investors many opportunities if handled correctly. Watch for them!
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX FUTURESThe dollar has made a very strong rise and reached the top, from the start of the decline, and from the middle to get a very strong trend
DX1! A bit bullish on this oneGreat bull flag on the Daily Chart.
Not a Financial Advise or Suggestion.
Let's see what happens.
DX1! - Weekly Market Update, 8/15US Dollar Index showing relative strength weakness.
Price for the past several weeks is being propped up by the 50 day sma.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX FUTURESVery sharp drop to the lowest points and now deliberately deliberate strong demand zone is considered support knowing that it has broken it strongly and is likely to retest and continue landing
Dollar index 4hour = sellstop in yesterday low is good ideaSL =106.800 wait time 7 day
in 102.5 area after pinbar comes on high timeframe we can buy too
good luck , use very low size
USD technicals damaged Looking at the USD futures, and interesting picture is starting to prevail...
The weekly chart is heading to a lower USD in the next couple of weeks. and to resume uptrend, it needs to reclaim above the green resistance line, which is unlikely at current status. RPM and MACD are burnt out and crossed down to a moderation in the coming weeks.
The daily chart accentuate that view as the FOMC rate raise of 75bp yesterday closed the day with a bearish daily candle and a lower low clocked today... so downside to the support over the next couple of weeks is likely. Technical indicators are all bearish crossed down too.
This has big picture effects... on equities, and commodities, which will be pushing up again, stoking more inflation. This is a major consideration in all my analyses going forward.
Much discussions going on everywhere about the economics of it, but the charts seems to reflect that the expectation is where the FOMC is done with raising rates for now... at least.
Watch what happens when the support level is met...
Strong Dollar makes is tough on other marketsUS Dollar – Weekly continuous: Surpassed the Primary recover target at 102.25 and making highs not seen for 20 years.
My opinion. Cash commodities can struggle to keep upward momentum when US Dollar is strong. The world is experiencing a financial crisis it has not seen for several decades. The 07/08 recession Primarily hit the US with the Housing market bust and Dollars fled the US to other stronger currencies/assets. US Ag commodities were very volatile in the period but mostly strong with a weak dollar. If EU and Asian markets remain weak, safe haven assets like the Dollar could remain elevated to extremely high…Yet to be determined.
Open interest is/has been low in the commodity space, and we recently witnessed what a liquidity drain out of our markets from the big money can do. Major swings up and down to be expected in the nearby future.
DX1! - Dollar Index Weekly Analysis, 7/11/22US Dollar Index has finally broken out with 1%+ confirmation.
I've identified the entry, stop and target. I personally would've liked to see more reward.
Support and Resistance structures have been adjusted for your reference this upcoming week.
Wishing you a blessed and profitable week!
us dollaus dollar at these heights = gg for the markets.
keeping as simple as that.
the higher the us dollar goes, the more pressure is put onto the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
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grand cycle w5 target = 113
expansion target = 116~119
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stay safe out there o/
DXY - What's next! Break to either direction!
Pattern: Pennant / Cup & Handle pattern - At key support.
TJ
dxy 6-28 updatedxy is in the process of seeing a significant breakout.
this 105 level is basically a line in the sand for what can be.
above 105, opens a door to 109,113,116,119.
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if you think things are bad in the market right now, you have seen nothing.
🛑
DXY Trading Wave 5 TerminationIn this update we review the recent price action in the Dollar Index futures contract and identify the next high probability trading pattern and price objectives to target
DX1! - Weekly Market Update, 6/20/22US Dollar Index continues to grind higher on broader market weakness but has yet to settle on a weekly basis 1%+ above the COVID-19 highs.
I've also updated support and resistance structures for your reference. Wishing you a blessed and profitable week ahead!
DX1! - Dollar Index looks creepyOK, that's creepy to me.
On this long term chart we see that price respects the Pitchfork very nicely. But that's not creepy, that's what I see day in and out.
But here it comes: IF this is a monster Bull Flag we see in the grey shaded area, the USD will explode to the upside in the comming months. That means, that with the higher and higher inflation in the US, daily goods become even more expensive, and at the same time, exporting becomes harder and harder.
Now, to stay competitive to the world with exports, the governments usually intervene by manipulating the currency down.
BUT now we face a huge problem:
The FED has printetd money endlessly...billions and billions, and that caused the mess, the inflation. Yes, it's not the Virus, it's the "Cocain" for the gamblers that was printed.
So, what would be necessery to manipulate the USD down? Printing money? But, they should STOP printing money so that the inflation can be tamed. Oh..ough..I think someone is trapped very, very bad.
I have no clue how this kneel could be unwinded without kinda reset, or the hard but efficient way of Paul Volker. It would be equivalent to the very, very bad headache after the furiousest party ever celebrated. (borrowed from Maverick Of Wallstreet on YT).
Oh, yes, you're right: The wealthiest got the party, the headache is for the crowd.
1.20 is the mark so far.
Cheers...
US Dollar Breaks 5-Year High!In last week’s post, I highlighted that the US Dollar was being held at a major
resistance level and was preventing price from climbing any higher. So far this
week, price has broken through.
Closing prices are more critical than intraday movement, so although price is
above resistance, it does not mean it will stay above it at the end of the business day.
This resistance has held strong for over five years, so it will take a lot of momentum
from the buyers to keep price above resistance at $103.
The resistance level is actually the high of a large area of consolidation, with the
support low at $90. Following a breakout of the high, we need to see a pattern of
higher highs to confirm that a trend is forming. This will reduce the likelihood of
price returning into the consolidation zone.
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As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
is there about to be a shift?good evening o/
a case could be made for the topping of the us dollar in the days ahead.
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while the chart may suggest this theory to be probable,
the worldly conditions do not.
though;
last year when i called out a $100 target on dxy at the absolute low,
it too didn't seem plausible -
until it was.
💲
DXY USDollar Weekly ContinuousThe high to low cycle in the dollar is looking to complete the primary target at the 88% retracement price at 102.25.
**High to low cycle: Pivot high to Low retracement and have price action surpass the 24% retracement and downtrend line. Move up to fill the 38% target and hold uptrend without making a new low.
Further upside targets
Resistance above at 103.96
Support at 96.94 and 94.58
the abducted us dollathe us dollar seems to be getting abducted by aliens here.
it will likely continue getting pulled until 112~113 algo target is met.
this will complete the longer term wave count, and it could begin a decade long correction to the downside after
(in theory).
DXY The 1 year Pitchfork approach points to a correctionA popular yet often overlooked technical took is the Pitchfork. On this analysis I have applied it on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 1D time-frame. The dotted line is the median, with the dashed being the 0.5 Fib and the black straight being the 0.75 Fib. As you see the latter two are used as Support (on the lower) and Resistance (on the upper) levels respectively.
Right now the price got rejected on the upper 0.75 Resistance Fib. Last time, on March 07, that caused a pull-back and 1 month consolidation. Basically the whole price action since December 2021, resembles the sequence of July - November 2021. Even the RSI fractals are similar. If we continue to repeat this, then the index is bound for a correction back to the lower Support 0.75 Fib. Short-term Support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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DXY - Little pull back!Hey!
Hope all is well.
Here's a quick trade idea you can dive into whilst using your own trade plan as well...
All the best,
TJ
Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice
dxy 3-6 update.dxy is currently backtesting a decade old trendline,
if we get above it, this is bullish for dxy - bearish for the global markets.
this is my updated projection on dxy as of this moment.
i do expect a downturn into a sub-wave 2 of the primary fifth wave to take place sometime soon.
once that wave 2 is completed, there will be some real pain in the markets.
if you think things are pretty bad right now, i'm sorry to say - it can get a whole lot worse.
prepare for it, use stops, and expect the unexpected.
✌
