GOLD → Character changes, bearish premise emergesGOLD updates the low and tests trend support, testing the market and traders' nerves. The dollar is rebounding, putting pressure on the metal.
Gold is moving into a correction, gradually changing the bullish nature of the market to bearish under selling pressure due to growing demand for the dollar amid fears of a trade war over Trump's policies.
The issue of tariffs by the US is still open. Meanwhile, traders' attention is focused on data on durable goods orders and consumer confidence in the US, as well as the Fed meeting, the outcome of which will be announced on Wednesday.
Technically, after breaking the bullish structure, the price is testing the channel support. It is quite difficult to break this line from the first time and the price may form a correction to 2745, or to the imbalance zone, for example, to 2750- 2760 Fibo, before the market desire to sell resumes.
Resistance levels: 2745, 2751, 2760
Support levels: 2735 (trigger), 2717
If 2745 does not miss price and gold returns to 2735, then we should prepare for a break of trend support. In that case, an impulse to 2717 could form.
But, if 2745 does not hold the price, gold may test 2750 - 2760 before falling further.
Regards R. Linda!
DXY
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, Sentimental Outlook
The DXY (Dollar Index) market is expected to move in a bearish direction, driven by several key factors.
🔴Fundamental Analysis
The DXY is a geometrically weighted index that tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies: the euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). The index is influenced by interest rates, inflation, and economic indicators such as GDP and employment rates.
🟠Macro Analysis
The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions significantly impact the DXY. With the Fed's rate hike cycle, the US dollar has strengthened against other major currencies. However, the recent decline in US Treasury yields has put pressure on the dollar.
🟡Market Sentiment
The market sentiment for the DXY is currently bearish, with 71% of IG client accounts short on this market. However, some analysts believe that the dollar's decline has been overdone and expect a rebound.
🟢Retail Traders' Sentiments
Retail traders' sentiments are mixed, with some expecting a bullish move and others predicting a bearish trend. On TradingView, some analysts have identified a potential bearish pattern, while others see a bullish reversal.
🔵Upcoming Events
The upcoming events that may impact the DXY include:
Federal Reserve Meeting: The Fed's interest rate decision and monetary policy statement may influence the dollar's value.
US GDP and Inflation Data: The release of US GDP and inflation data may impact the dollar's strength.
Trade Developments: Any updates on US trade policies, particularly with China, may affect the dollar's value.
🟣Trading Expectations
Based on the analysis, it's challenging to predict a clear direction for the DXY. However, considering the bearish market sentiment and potential bearish patterns, a neutral to bearish move is possible in the short term. Keep a close eye on upcoming events and market developments to adjust your trading strategy accordingly.
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USD/JPY -H1- Bearish FlagThe USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 154.30
2nd Support – 153.52
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DXY rebounding on the 1D MA50 and bottom of Channel Up.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Up since the November 05 2024 Low and the break-out above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Yesterday it made a new Higher Low exactly at the bottom of the Channel and shortly after breaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
This MA recovery confirms the start of the pattern's new Bullish Leg. The previous two delivered a rise of exactly +4.50%, and as such we will be looking for a similar Target at 111.650.
Note that, even though the 1D RSI resembles the May 15 2024 Low, which despite an initial rebound, it was rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line at the time, now the long-term trend has shifted to bullish as that Lower Highs trend-line turned into Support on the December 06 2024 contact.
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GOLD → A correction before the final spurt to ATH - 2790 ?FX:XAUUSD has been shaking against the support at 2762 since the opening of the session. Most likely, the chances of ATH retest are still high. Dollar in correction gives chances to yellow metal lovers
Traders faced profit taking as they await Fed statements and the Trump administration's actions on trade tariffs. U.S. tariff plans and PMI data continue to influence sentiment, the dollar and gold. Economically, the week ahead will be quite important with Fed rate, US GDP and PCE decisions.
Technically, gold tested a key support zone, but the price did not reach the risk zone where we could expect a trend reversal. We can assume that the extra passengers were dropped off the train, taking their money ;)
Resistance levels: 2762, 2790
Support levels: 2751, 2747
The focus at this point is on the 2762 level. If the gold can consolidate above this support, then we should wait for 2790. Still, this is an important zone that cannot leave speculators alone. We are waiting for ATH retest and false breakout.
Regards R. Linda!
DXY Will Go Down! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 107.947.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 106.747 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Dollar Index Bullish to $111.350 (UPDATE)The Dollar has melted down to our second POI, down to $107 & so far has bounced back up. It is possible that price might still drop a little lower, but overall I expect the Dollar to turn bullish again.
We've seen Wave 4 correction complete, followed by a 'BOS' above Wave 3 high confirming the bull run will continue. Retest of supply zone completed, now time for the move up to continue📈
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 107.16
1st Support: 106.51
1st Resistance: 107.92
Risk Warning:
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURJPY | 1 HOUR | PULLBACK THEN BULLHi everyone, Please don't forget to press the like button to receive updates of this analysis. 🚀
SIGNAL ALERT
BUY EURJPY ( FX:EURJPY ) | 162,309 , 162,221
🟢TP1: 162,500
🟢TP2: 163,100
🟢TP3: 163,950
🔴SL: 160,908
Stop Loss RR ratio - 1,32
Thanks to everyone who supported my analysis with likes 🙏🏻
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Friday's huge pump, followed by a bigger Monday dump! Gold went very close to its ATH, but has now started declining, staying below the major Wave 5 high, keeping our sell analysis valid so far.
I will be wary of Gold until we see a melt back below $2,690, as we can still possibly see it create a new high in the SHORT TERM. But overall, our sell bias is still holding valid🦾
DXY - 1H still bearish...While some signals indicate buy opportunities on the dollar index, I remain skeptical. As mentioned in our 4H analysis, the third bullish leg has been completed, and I expect a deeper correction in CAPITALCOM:DXY .
In the 1H time frame, we can observe that the second reaction to the support zone is significantly weaker than the first. This could indicate a potential breakdown of the support zone, with the index likely falling below the 107 level.
Let’s see how this plays out! Follow for timely updates and expert insights! 🚀
Euro maintaining uptrend due to short-term dollar weakness
The short-term dollar weakness is leading to a notable appreciation of the euro. Within the ECB, there are varying opinions regarding the future rate trajectory, but the prevailing sentiment strongly leans towards the necessity of further rate cuts. ING Group is confident that the ECB will cut interest rates by an additional 25bp at its monetary policy meeting this week and will pursue more gradual easing throughout the year.
It’s also crucial to closely monitor Germany's 4Q GDP and Spain's January CPI results set to be released this week. Germany's GDP (QoQ) is projected to drop to -0.1% from 0.1% in the previous quarter, while the market anticipates Spain's January CPI to rise to 2.9% from 2.8% in the prior month.
EURUSD broke below EMA21 and retreated to 1.0430. However, the price is still holding an uptrend, sustaining bullish momentum.If EURUSD breaks above EMA21 and the resistance at 1.0455, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.0530. Conversely, if EURUSD breaks below the channel’s lower bound, the price could test the support at 1.0400.
XAUUSD ( GOLD ) | 1 DAY | SWING TRADING | ICT STRATEGY Hey there, friends! 👋
I’ve prepared a gold analysis for you using the swing trading style. 📊 Currently, the daily analysis aligns with the ICT market maker sell model.
However, for these models to work, we need to see some sort of reaction in the market. Patience is key, so hang tight and wait for my analysis to be updated. ⏳
Once I spot a reaction, I'll share a golden target with you! 🎯
Don’t forget to hit the like button to stay tuned for updates! 🚀
Sell off across U.S. Equity into Monday U.S. openU.S. equity indicies failed to register new highs at the close of inauguration week on the heels of famed Trump 'tariff talk' and the initiation of mass immigration reform. Friday 1/24/2025 we saw the bulls slightly outnumbered by bearish interest before the 'full weight' of the move was felt coming towards the close of Sydney/open of London session into today Monday, January 27 of 2025. The dollar is weak, the price of metals is subdued as of writing and bonds have sky-rocketed across the board in a clear display of a flight to safety (guaranteed interest during a time of uncertainty in RISK-assets). Due to a clear risk off sentiment reflected in the flight to safety in the bond market, I'm calling U.S. equity indicies to be in a sell-off for monday 1/27/2025 across the board. We have MAGS and FAANG earnings reporting this week in addition to an FOMC meeting this coming Wednesday - While the price action might become a blood-bath for a while, it may or may not be part of an over-due correction of a broader sequence.
XAUUSD - Gold Enters the Last Week of January!On the 4-hour timeframe, gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is in its ascending channel. If gold rises to the previous ATH, we can look for selling positions at the ceiling indicated by the target of the midline of the ascending channel. A correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with its next buying position.
Last week, the gold market showcased one of its most stable and impressive performances in recent months, seemingly adapting to the shocks and uncertainties introduced by the newly established U.S. administration.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, highlighted that given global markets’ reaction to the unpredictability of the new U.S. president, there appear to be few barriers to new record highs for gold. He stated, “At this point, we can set aside technical and fundamental analysis. Gold is acting as a safe haven against the chaos stemming from the new U.S. government. No one knows what the next statement or action will be.”
According to the latest U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report released by S&P Global, the services sector index dropped to 52.8, marking its lowest level since April of last year and falling below market expectations of 56.5. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, exceeding the forecasted 49.7. The composite PMI also decreased to 52.4.
Although confidence in the services sector has declined from its 18-month peak in December, it remains the second-highest level recorded in the past year.Additionally, the services sector experienced the fastest rate of job creation in 30 months. Input costs and selling prices across sectors also rose at the fastest pace in four months.
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at S&P Global, commented on the data, stating that U.S. businesses began 2025 with optimism about the new administration’s policies. In particular, growth expectations in the manufacturing sector have increased due to anticipated government support. He also noted that while GDP growth slowed slightly in January, sustained business confidence suggests this slowdown may be temporary. The rise in hiring rates, driven by improved business outlooks, is another encouraging sign.
However, Williamson warned about increasing inflationary pressures. Companies reported that rising supplier costs and higher wages, driven by labor shortages, have led to price increases. If this trend continues, concerns about inflation could intensify, prompting the Federal Reserve to adopt more hawkish policies.
Rich Checkan, President and COO of Asset Strategies International, predicted that gold might experience a price correction in the short term. He explained, “While the long-term trend for gold remains bullish, thanks to the mismanagement of fiat currencies, I anticipate a price correction this week. Gold has approached historical highs today, but uncertainties surrounding the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could prompt investors to take profits, leading to a temporary price pullback.”
This week, officials from major central banks worldwide will convene to make critical decisions. These meetings come as discussions about President Trump’s tariff threats resurface. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Canada (BoC) are all scheduled to hold their monetary policy meetings this week.