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DXY

2025 Outlook : DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies, has shown notable strength in the last quarter of 2024. This trend is influenced by several key factors: 1) Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation Concerns The Federal Reserve's renewed cautious approach to interest rate cuts has been pivotal in supporting the dollar's value. Concerns about inflation, potentially exacerbated by anticipated fiscal policies under President Donald Trump's administration, further contribute to this cautious monetary approach. The Fed's reluctance to reduce rates aggressively may continue to bolster the DXY. 2) Economic Performance and Trade Policies The U.S. economy's robust performance, coupled with expectations of new tariffs and tax reforms under the Trump administration, is anticipated to sustain the dollar's strength. However, these policies may lead to increased inflationary pressures, influencing the Fed's monetary decisions and, consequently, the DXY's trajectory. 3) Global Economic Comparisons Comparatively weaker economic growth in regions like Europe and Japan, where central banks maintain dovish policies, enhances the dollar's appeal. This divergence in economic performance and monetary policy stances contributes to the DXY's bullish outlook. Projections for the DXY in 2025 may vary. A rise to around the 115 level (2022 high), driven by the factors mentioned above, seems very likely. Additionally, based on the Fibonacci Extension, the DXY could possibly reach a high of 124.50 in the long-term. However, fluctuations are anticipated at those historic high levels, with some significant declines. While the current outlook for the DXY appears bullish, it's essential to consider potential risks, including: - Trade Policies: The implementation of new tariffs could introduce uncertainties affecting the dollar's value. - Global Economic Conditions: Improvements in other economies or shifts in their monetary policies could influence the DXY's trajectory. - Domestic Economic Indicators: Factors such as the U.S. budget deficit and overall economic health will play significant roles in shaping the dollar's strength.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
4
Weekly Forex Forecast: Last Show For 2024Dec 30th to Jan 3rd. USD is still strong, and so are the indices. I will be looking for buys until there is a significant bearish Break of Structure. A strong USD is a headwind for Gold, Silver and the other metals. It is also a headwind for GBP, EUR and the other majors. USDCHF, USDCAD and USDJPY should see some upside. Thank you for hangin' with me for 2024! I hope you found a benefit in my weekly forecasts this year. 2025 will be even better! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
by RT_Money
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 107.49 1st Support: 106.72 1st Resistance: 108.52 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
DXY at a Critical Juncture: Will Bulls Break the Resistance?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently consolidating just above the ascending trendline while approaching a critical horizontal resistance zone around 108.00. The price action shows a contracting triangle pattern, suggesting indecision in the market. A breakout above the resistance could confirm bullish momentum, potentially driving the index toward 109.50 or higher. Conversely, a breakdown below the ascending trendline and support zone could indicate bearish pressure, targeting the next key level at 106.50.
TVC:DXYLong
by unichartz
es1! retests 5kes1! appears poised for a larger move down, based on the smaller timeframe count . this leads me to believe that es1! has entered a larger fourth wave. historically, these waves take an average of 2 months to play out and typically result in a 12% decrease from the high before completing. wave 4's often retrace back into the territory of the prior degree's wave 4, and i expect this one to follow suit. pay attention to the green trendline i've drawn on the chart,,, it serves as a solid guide for where i anticipate es1! to find a bottom. dipping below the trendline is acceptable, provided we don't see any weekly candle closes beneath it. even if a weekly candle does close below, a strong recovery the following week, such as a gap-up scenario , could invalidate the breakdown. there’s not much else to add here, as the chart is fairly straightforward. keep an eye on the trendline and monitor weekly closes for confirmation. 💸
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)I am expecting a ‘complex correction’ of the Elliott Wave Theory, to complete the correction on Gold. So a 5 Sub-Wave pattern (A,B,C,D,E). This correction should push the price down towards $2,240 roughly. We can then look to start buying Gold again at cheaper prices. At the most extreme, if the bigger institutional firms want to really shake people out of buying Gold before it creates new high’s towards $3,200+, I would not rule out the possibility of price dropping towards $1,960 as an extreme target.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
DXY Trading plan Here’s a more detailed CAPITALCOM:DXY DXY Trading Plan: - **Buy Entry:** Enter a buy position around **107.800**, watching for price action confirmation at this level. - **First Target:** **108.000** – This is the immediate resistance and serves as a safe partial profit-taking level. - **Second Target:** **108.300** – A key resistance level, ideal for booking the remaining profits. Risk Management: - If **107.800** fails to break out or shows signs of reversal, **close the trade immediately** to minimize potential losses. Look for candlestick patterns, rejection wicks, or bearish momentum as warning signs. Additional Notes: - Monitor DXY momentum and overall trend direction on the 1-hour timeframe. - Keep an eye on related macroeconomic data or news events that could impact dollar strength.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
1
The Relationship Between Dollar Dominance, Debt, and Deficits The US dollar's position as the world's reserve currency grants the United States a unique set of economic advantages and challenges. This "exorbitant privilege," as it's often called, significantly influences the nation's ability to manage its debt and deficits. Understanding this complex relationship is crucial for comprehending the dynamics of the global financial system and the US economy's position within it. Dollar Dominance: A Foundation of Economic Power The dollar's status as the primary reserve currency means that it is widely held by central banks, international institutions, and businesses worldwide. This widespread acceptance creates consistent demand for dollar-denominated assets, particularly US Treasury bonds. This demand is a key factor in allowing the US government to finance its debt at relatively low-interest rates. If the US were to borrow in another currency, or if global demand for its debt were significantly lower, the cost of borrowing would likely increase, making it more expensive to finance government spending. This dominance also simplifies international trade for US businesses. Because the dollar is the standard currency for many global transactions, US companies can conduct business with reduced exchange rate risks and transaction costs. This ease of trade strengthens the US position in the global economy and contributes to its overall economic power. Debt and Deficits: The Fiscal Realities Government debt represents the accumulation of past budget deficits. A budget deficit occurs when government spending exceeds its revenue in a given fiscal year. These deficits require the government to borrow money, primarily by issuing Treasury bonds, which then contribute to the overall national debt. While deficits can be used strategically to stimulate the economy during downturns or to fund essential public services, persistent and large deficits can lead to a growing national debt. A high debt level can have several potential consequences, including higher interest payments on the debt, reduced fiscal flexibility to respond to future economic crises, and potential inflationary pressures. The Interplay: Dollar Dominance and Fiscal Policy The relationship between dollar dominance, debt, and deficits is complex and multifaceted. The ability to borrow at lower costs due to the dollar's reserve currency status can, in some ways, lessen the immediate pressure to address budget imbalances. The lower interest rates make it less painful in the short term to finance deficits, potentially leading to a greater accumulation of debt over time. However, it's crucial to understand that dollar dominance does not directly cause deficits. Deficits are a result of fiscal policy decisions—specifically, decisions about government spending and taxation. Dollar dominance merely affects the cost of financing those decisions. A government could run deficits regardless of its currency's global status, but the financial implications would likely be significantly different. One could argue that the "exorbitant privilege" afforded by dollar dominance creates a moral hazard. Knowing that borrowing costs are relatively low could incentivize policymakers to engage in more expansive fiscal policies than they might otherwise pursue. This can lead to a situation where the long-term consequences of debt accumulation are downplayed in favor of short-term political or economic gains. Potential Challenges to Dollar Dominance While the dollar has maintained its dominant position for decades, several factors could potentially challenge its future status. The rise of other economic powers, the development of alternative reserve currencies, and shifts in global trade patterns are all potential threats. For example, the increasing economic influence of countries like China has led to discussions about the potential for the renminbi to become a more prominent player in the global financial system. However, for a currency to achieve reserve status, it requires deep and liquid financial markets, strong institutions, and widespread trust in the issuing country's economic and political stability. These are factors that have contributed to the dollar's strength and are not easily replicated. Furthermore, the emergence of new technologies, such as cryptocurrencies and digital payment systems, could potentially disrupt traditional financial flows and challenge the existing currency hierarchy. However, these technologies are still relatively new and face regulatory and adoption hurdles before they could pose a significant threat to the dollar's dominance. Maintaining the Dollar's Strength Maintaining the dollar's strength and its reserve currency status is a complex undertaking. It requires a combination of sound economic policies, strong institutions, and a commitment to maintaining open and transparent financial markets. Sustainable fiscal policies are essential. While dollar dominance provides some flexibility, persistently large deficits and a rapidly growing national debt could eventually erode confidence in the dollar and its long-term value. This could lead to a decrease in demand for dollar-denominated assets, potentially increasing borrowing costs and weakening the dollar's global position. In conclusion, the relationship between dollar dominance, debt, and deficits is a critical aspect of the US and global economies. While the dollar's reserve currency status provides significant advantages in financing government spending and facilitating international trade, it also presents challenges in managing fiscal policy. Maintaining the dollar's strength requires a balanced approach that prioritizes sound economic management and recognizes the complex interplay between these crucial economic factors.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
GOLD → A chance for growth or a trap?FX:XAUUSD continues to give hope to the bulls, trading inside a local rising channel resembling a flag on the background of a local bearish trend. Further upside for the gold price may remain limited as the US dollar remains underpinned by the Fed's hawkishness. This begs the question: what will happen to rates? Hold or rise? It is worth understanding that the rise in inflation expectations against the backdrop of Trump's protectionist policy requires an increase in interest rates. In addition, statistically, the dollar enjoys interest towards the end of the year, and because of the Christmas holidays Technically, I am still skeptical about a possible strong growth, as the fundamental background is weak. Technically, the price may bounce from any nearby strong level. Resistance levels: 2633, 2650 Support levels: sma, 2606 We may not expect strong moves at the end of the year, the market is already celebrating the end of 2024. But the probability is there. Emphasis on the nearest strong levels from which the fall may resume Regards R. Linda! Happy Holidays to all and a productive new year 2025!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
12
Gold at a Crossroads: Key Correction to Avert Deeper DeclineXAUUSD Analysis: Navigating a Complex Gold Market Amid Volatility The XAUUSD pair is currently navigating a critical juncture as it tests key zones of interest within an ongoing counter-trend correction. This comes after successfully breaching a significant resistance level earlier. However, the broader market landscape remains challenging, with bearish sentiment taking the forefront. Fundamental Overview The downward pressure on gold is largely driven by a combination of factors, primarily stemming from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Persistent concerns about inflation, the uncertain trajectory of Trump's future policy, and mixed economic data from the past two weeks have all contributed to a negative outlook for the yellow metal. One critical point to note is the speculation surrounding the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy in 2025. The cycle of interest rate cuts, initially expected to be more aggressive, now appears to be slowing, with projections indicating only two potential cuts for the year. This cautious stance has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, adding to the bearish tone in the market. The correction observed on Friday was largely influenced by the release of PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data, which acted as a temporary catalyst for price movement. However, this correction does not appear sufficient to alter the broader bearish narrative. As the year draws to a close, liquidity in the markets is expected to decline further. This seasonal trend could exacerbate volatility, particularly if assets become mispriced in thinner trading conditions. Traders are advised to exercise heightened caution during this period. Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, it is essential to acknowledge the ongoing geopolitical risks that continue to underpin the gold market. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have provided a degree of support, acting as a counterbalance to the otherwise negative fundamental backdrop. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, gold appears to be forming a flag pattern following its recent sharp decline. The price is currently trading within the boundaries of this consolidation pattern. For traders, the critical focus should be on the local channel's support and resistance levels, as they will likely dictate the next significant price movement. Resistance Levels: 2620: A pivotal level where bearish momentum could intensify if broken and defended by sellers. 2631: Secondary resistance that could act as a hurdle for any upward attempt. 2640-2650: This zone could serve as a testing ground if the price attempts to break above the channel resistance. Support Levels: 2606: Immediate support level that may provide short-term stability. 2560: A deeper support level, which, if breached, could signal a more substantial downside move. The 2620 level deserves particular attention. Should sellers manage to push the price below this threshold and maintain control, it could significantly amplify bearish pressure, potentially triggering a more pronounced price drop. Conversely, the possibility of a breakout above the flag pattern's resistance cannot be entirely dismissed. In such a scenario, the price might retest the 2640-2650 zone before resuming its downward trajectory. Market Outlook and Final Thoughts As we approach the final stretch of the year, market participants should prepare for heightened volatility fueled by reduced liquidity. Mispriced assets during this period could lead to unexpected price swings, making risk management a top priority. While the bearish narrative remains dominant, traders should remain vigilant for any developments that could shift the balance of power, including geopolitical escalations or unexpected shifts in monetary policy. In summary, the gold market presents a complex mix of technical setups and fundamental drivers. Navigating this environment requires a careful balance of short-term tactical positioning and a broader understanding of the macroeconomic landscape. Keep an eye on key levels and stay prepared for potential surprises in this volatile market.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by lonelyPlayer0
GOLD → A reversal pattern for a further fallFX:XAUUSD is consolidating below the key point - 2620. Against the backdrop of a strong and growing dollar, gold has a chance to test local lows Gold price gains are likely to remain subdued as the US dollar continues to be supported by the hawkishness of the Federal Reserve at its December meeting. Trump's protectionist policies are fueling inflation expectations, setting the stage for higher interest rates. In addition, amid Christmas holidays and reduced trading volumes, market participants are inclined to maintain positions in the US currency. Thus, gold is still seen as an attractive instrument to sell in case of attempts of its recovery, except for cases of sudden geopolitical aggravations, for example, in the regions of the Middle East or Eastern Europe. Resistance levels: 2620 - 2622, 2633 Support levels: 2606, 2590 Emphasis on 2622. If the bears keep the price below this zone, it is worth looking at local support levels, as a breakdown of these levels will only strengthen the fall to 2600-2560. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSD
by RLinda
10
Are we ready for the rise in the price of Bitcoin?The answer is yes We are repeating history... There are less than 60 days left until the breaking of the previous ceiling and then the price increase to the desired ranges in the Bitcoin chart. After 1 year of effort and study, I found out the method of seeing the chart, I did a lot of trial and error, but now I am ready to make the best predictions in the world.... I am Ehsan Chegani from the beautiful country of Iran and I must tell you that the price ceiling of Bitcoin will be set in 2025 and the price will increase to the range of 220 thousand dollars. The altcoin party will start in 3 months and eventually the price of many altcoins will see new ceilings, but there will be no news of significant progress in the market until the next 2 months... During these 2 months, I buy more bitcoins and altcoins with every price drop... how about you??? Number 1: The US government will support Bitcoin. Number 2: Little by little, I am preparing my hardware wallets to be ready to convert bitcoins to dollars and exit the market. Number 3: The price has reached its ceiling and I am selling.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by ehsan_chegeni
4
XAUUSD on the way to 2900 Price LevelThe currency pair in focus is XAU/USD, representing the exchange rate between gold (XAU) and the US Dollar (USD). The current price of XAU/USD is 2611, meaning one ounce of gold is valued at 2611 US Dollars. The target price is 2900, indicating a projected increase in gold's value to 2900 USD per ounce. The expected gain is 2000 pips, with each pip representing a small price movement in the currency pair. The pattern being observed is a Symmetrical Triangle, a chart formation that indicates a period of consolidation. In this pattern, the price moves between converging trendlines, suggesting that the market is uncertain and waiting for a breakout. A breakout occurs when the price breaks above the upper trendline or below the lower trendline, signaling a strong price movement. Traders are watching for this breakout, as it could push the price toward the target of 2900. The symmetrical triangle pattern typically leads to a significant price movement once the breakout occurs, making it a key technical indicator. This setup is used by traders to anticipate the direction of the next major move in the market.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery