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DXY

Rates Are Down, So Why Isn’t Gold Shining?Gold Prices Drop to 2581 Amid Market Turmoil: What's Driving the Decline? Gold prices, as reflected in the XAU/USD pair, have slumped to 2581, marking a significant dip in the market. While many anticipated that falling interest rates would bolster gold, the reality has turned out to be more complex. Yesterday’s developments weighed heavily on the precious metal, and surprisingly, the negative impact isn’t directly tied to rate cuts. Instead, a mix of economic uncertainty and technical market dynamics has pushed gold into bearish territory. The Core Reason Behind Gold’s Decline The primary driver of this downward movement is the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach regarding future rate cuts. While the Fed followed market expectations by reducing the benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, its projections for next year surprised many. The central bank’s forecast of just two rate cuts in 2024 falls significantly short of market expectations, signaling a more hawkish stance than anticipated. This hawkishness has rippled through global markets. The U.S. dollar, buoyed by the Fed’s cautious tone, has strengthened, creating headwinds for commodities like gold that are priced in dollars. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers, diminishing its appeal as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, broader market indices have also faced selling pressure, reflecting heightened concerns about the economic outlook. Technical Factors Amplify the Bearish Sentiment From a technical perspective, gold’s price action underscores the bearish sentiment dominating the market. The XAU/USD pair has decisively broken below a critical support level, exiting a global ascending channel that had been intact for weeks. This breakout has confirmed the downward momentum, with gold setting a new low at 2581. Key support and resistance levels now define the boundaries of potential price movements: Resistance Levels: 2620, 2630, 2636 Support Levels: 2616, 2612, 2603 After breaking below the support, the price has moved into an imbalance zone, signaling a possible retest of the previously broken channel boundary. This retest could serve as a pivotal moment for market participants. If the price fails to reclaim the resistance zones at 2620 or 2630 and consolidates below these levels, it could pave the way for further declines. False breakouts, where the price briefly breaches a resistance level before reversing, are another factor to watch closely. A failed attempt to break key resistances like 2620 or 2630 could reinforce the bearish trend and lead to further downward pressure on gold. Macroeconomic Data in Focus Today’s trading session brings additional catalysts that could shape gold’s trajectory. Market attention is firmly fixed on the release of U.S. GDP data and initial jobless claims. These indicators will provide fresh insights into the health of the U.S. economy and could either reinforce or challenge the Fed’s cautious stance. A stronger-than-expected GDP reading or lower-than-expected jobless claims could further support the dollar, adding to gold’s woes. Conversely, weaker economic data might rekindle hopes for more aggressive rate cuts, potentially offering some relief to gold prices. Broader Implications for Gold Investors The recent price action in gold highlights the complex interplay between macroeconomic fundamentals, central bank policies, and technical market dynamics. While gold has traditionally been viewed as a safe haven, its performance is not immune to shifts in interest rate expectations and currency fluctuations. For investors, the key question is whether gold’s current bearish trend represents a short-term correction or the beginning of a more sustained decline. Much will depend on how the Federal Reserve’s policy unfolds in the coming months and how global economic conditions evolve. In the short term, traders should monitor key technical levels closely. A decisive break above resistance at 2636 could signal a reversal of the bearish trend, while a sustained move below support at 2603 would likely confirm further downside potential. Until then, gold remains under pressure, navigating a challenging and uncertain landscape.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by lonelyPlayer0
2
DXY vs BTC - Don't Fade the FedVery simple concept that people should be aware of. When DXY runs it is because investors are risking off from the market into USD for some reason. Usually DXY will run in opposition to the majority of Stocks, Crypto and other risk on markets. The Fed has announced yesterday that there will be less rate cuts than expected in 2025 and are hawkish causing a market wide selloff into USD and other safe haven assets. This risking off may be done and we could see a reversal on the DXY, a failed breakout: or we could be in for more pain. It's a big warning sign.
by Mrgalaxy
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST: USD Still Bullish? YES! Buy It!This forecast is for the week of Dec. 16th - 20th. The USD INDEX is indicating strength, continuing from last week going into this week. The economic calendar has red folders for every day this week. THe xxxUSD pairs are looking bearish, while the USDxxx pairs are looking bullish. The USD Index closed last week very bearish, trading through the previous week's low. A pullback makes sense for this week, at least for the beginning of it. With NFP coming on Friday, trading up until Wed may be the safest way to go. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. Transcript
TVC:DXYLong
by RT_Money
What I Expect Through The New Year Absent A Government Shutdown.Traders, minus a government shutdown, I do expect another altcoin pump. However, the possibility of a shutdown is throwing a big wrench into my thesis. We'll talk about how price action would look in both scenarios as well as discuss the new crypto cycle rotation. You should get to know this new rotation to remain most successful in your trading. As always, we'll start with the DXY, VIX, SPY, and NVDA and discuss future direction and what it means for our crypto space.
COINBASE:SOLUSD
by stewdamus
2
GOLD → Interest rates are down, but why is gold falling?FX:XAUUSD falls to 2581. Yesterday's news had a negative impact on the market and it's not about rate cuts. Technically the price confirms the bearish nature of the market. The main reason for the decline in gold prices is the Federal Reserve's caution about lowering interest rates amid the latest economic data. The US central bank lowered the interest rate by 0.25% to the range of 4.25%-4.50% as expected, but for the next year it forecasts 2 rate cuts, which is much less than expected. The Fed's hawkishness has played its role: the dollar is rising, markets are falling. Today all eyes are on GDP and initial jobless claims. Technically, the price is out of the global channel, breaking the support, gold updates the low to 2581. Resistance levels: 2620, 2630, 2636 Support levels: 2616, 2612, 2603 After updating the low, a retest of the previously broken channel boundary and imbalance zones is formed. False breakdown of key resistance, for example 2620 or 2630 and subsequent consolidation of the price below these zones may lead to further decline. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
10
NZDUSD → The price could fall another 2.5%FX:NZDUSD is forming a return to a strong support zone after testing it after a year. Against the backdrop of a rising dollar, the chances of a support breakout are growing. The downtrend, rising dollar, weak fundamental background for NZD play a key role in forming a bear market. The price is testing the key resistance and trying to enter the selling zone. At the moment the price is restrained by the descending channel support and if the price manages to break this line and consolidate below, strong selling may be formed further, as there are no obstacles below it until 0.562. Resistance levels: 0.577, 0.5817 Support levels: 0.575, 0.562 I do not exclude the possibility of correction if the buyers hold the support. But there is no chance of a trend change. Another retest of the support may lead to a breakdown and further fall to 0.562 Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
2
DXY (THE DOLLAR INDEX)1. If the Dollar Breaks Out Above Resistance This scenario indicates bullish momentum, meaning the dollar could strengthen further. Implications: Continuation of Uptrend: Breaking resistance often signals strong buying interest or positive sentiment. Next Target: The price may move toward the next resistance level or a new high. Market Sentiment: This could result from strong economic data, higher interest rate expectations, or geopolitical factors favoring the dollar. Traders’ Actions: Enter long (buy) positions after confirming the breakout. Set stop-loss orders just below the breakout level to manage risk. --- 2. If the Dollar Fails to Break Resistance This scenario indicates a potential reversal or consolidation below the resistance level. Implications: Reversal to Downtrend: Failure to break resistance often signals profit-taking or bearish sentiment. Support Retest: The price might fall to test lower support levels. Market Sentiment: This could occur due to weak economic data, dovish central bank policies, or stronger foreign currencies. Traders’ Actions: Consider short (sell) positions if rejection at resistance is confirmed. Monitor for bearish patterns (e.g., double top or bearish engulfing candles). --- Confirmation is Key Volume Analysis: A breakout with high volume is more reliable, while rejection with high selling volume confirms resistance. Economic Data Events: Major announcements like interest rate decisions or employment data can influence the direction. Would you like help with specific dollar pairs or technical analysis?
TVC:DXY
by TRADE_CENTER_1
DXY SELL US Dollar rises after Fed's cut and hawkish outlook DXY trades rose above 107.80, reacting to the Fed’s anticipated rate cut. Markets parse new rate projections for 2025 and 2026. Traders assess Powell’s cautious yet hawkish remarksThe US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. These currencies are the Euro (constituting 57.6% of the weighting), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%). The index started in 1973 -with the absolution of Bretton Woods- with a base of 100.000, and values since then are relative to this base. For example, if the current reading says 99.800, this means that the dollar has fallen 0.2% since the start of the index (99.800 - 100.000). US Dollar Index on Wikipedia Being the Dollar Index a geometrically weighted index and not a trade-weighted one, it is too concentrated in Europe and does not include two of the U.S. top four trading partners Mexico and China. It does not appear to be used by corporates or many asset managers, like mutual funds, insurance companies, and endowments. It is primarily a speculative vehicle. It's also important to acknowledge that a geometric mean artificially lowers the value of the USD over time. More about the basics of the Dollar index! ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE US DOLLAR INDEX The US Dollar Index news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people: Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis. The US Government: events as administration statements, budget, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the Dollar Index. The US Treasury Dept that defines its role as “the steward of U.S. economic and financial systems, and as an influential participant in the world economy.” US GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in the United States of America. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the Dollar Index, while a low reading is negative. WANT TO LEARN MORE ON US DOLLAR INDEX? The US Dollar Index Steve Misic Steve Misic Online Trading Academy When I write the Online Trading Academy Forex newsletter, I give my opinion about what I believe is happening to the currencies of the world based on the news I hear, the experts I follow, and my personal experiences of the economic cycles I have seen in the past. This fundamental information helps me understand what reports and indicators the economists of the world believe will shape future events. The Dollar Index – It Makes Sense Until it Closes Don Dawson Don Dawson Online Trading Academy Have you watched the US Dollar Index (USDX) Futures contract trade during the day? Do you notice that with each price change the intervals are always a minimum tick of .005? And then at the end of the day when you look at your daily candle of the USDX you see a closing price like 97.197. A Look at the US Dollar Index Sam Evans Sam Evans Online Trading Academy Over the last few months especially, there’s been a lot of focus in the world of Currency Trading upon the state of the US Dollar. No matter what your opinion is of the Greenback, it is still, without question, regarded as the world’s primary reserve currency and holds its weight of recognition across the board. Being the Dollar Index a geometrically weighted index and not a trade-weighted one, it is too concentrated in Europe and does not include two of the U.S. top four trading partners Mexico and China. It does not appear to be used by corporates or many asset managers, like mutual funds, insurance companies, and endowments. It is primarily a speculative vehicle. It's also important to acknowledge that a geometric mean artificially lowers the value of the USD over
TVC:DXYShort
by KingForex078
Silver XAG/USD Bearish FlagThe XAG/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 30.11 2nd Support – 29.86 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
10
Sell EURUSD Bearish ChannelThe EUR/USD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0437 2nd Support – 1.0410 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
12
USOIL Best Level to Short/Hold 10% swing trade setup🔸Hey guys, today let's review the 2 hour chart for US oil . Any upside is limited by strong overhead resistances, currently trading near range highs so overall risk/reward shifting in bears favor. 🔸Strong resistances will cap upside at 72.00 usd / 72.50 usd. right now locked in tight trading range, however expecting final pump to trigger overhead stop losses before reversal and subsequent sell off event. 🔸Recommended strategy for BEARS: wait for the final pump before short selling from strong overhead resistances at 72.00 and 72.50 SL fixes at 74.00 usd, TP1 bears is 68 usd TP2 bears is 66 usd. swing trade setup, patience required. good luck! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:USOILShort
by ProjectSyndicate
5
XAUUSD - gold waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its medium-term bearish channel. In the authentic failure of the support area, we can see the continuation of the gold decline and the demand zone. Within the zone of demand, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If the resistance range is broken, you can sell in the supply zone. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is scheduled for today. According to a recent report by Crédit Agricole, it is expected that during the December meeting, the interest rate will be reduced by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25-4.50%. While this rate cut has largely been priced into the market, the Fed’s monetary statement may carry a hawkish tone. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will indicate slower rate cuts in 2025 due to resilient economic conditions and persistent inflation. Crédit Agricole predicts that Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, will likely hint at pausing rate cuts early in 2025. Additionally, recent employment and inflation data from November suggest that the Fed is in a position to implement this rate cut. However, the risks associated with persistent inflation indicate that the rate-cutting cycle will progress more gradually. Crédit Agricole estimates that interest rate projections for 2025 could be revised to 3.625% and for 2026 to 3.125%. These figures represent reductions of 0.75% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, showing smaller decreases compared to earlier forecasts. According to the Financial Times, Israeli negotiators have met with mediators in Doha to discuss a ceasefire with Hamas and the release of hostages from Gaza. These talks are taking place ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January. Both Israeli and U.S. officials remain cautiously optimistic about reaching an agreement, though disagreements over key details persist. The Israeli negotiating team arrived in Qatar on Monday, focusing on resolving major points of contention. It is expected that both sides will respond to a recent mediator proposal, which includes a six-to-eight-week ceasefire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. These discussions have intensified following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. Steven Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, has met with Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatar’s Prime Minister to advance the agreement. Despite progress, significant challenges remain, including disagreements over the number of hostages to be freed and the presence of Israeli forces in Gaza. While Hamas has softened its stance somewhat, substantial differences still exist. UBS, in its recent report, has projected that gold prices will reach $2,900 per ounce by the end of 2025. A key factor highlighted by UBS is the continued demand for gold from central banks, driven by the declining value of the dollar and diversification of reserves. UBS expects central bank gold purchases to remain strong throughout 2025, supporting elevated gold prices. Moreover, investor demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical and policy uncertainties will play a significant role in maintaining high gold prices. UBS points to ongoing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle Eastern tensions, and uncertain fiscal and trade policies under the incoming administration of Donald Trump. These factors could boost investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Lower interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar are additional factors that could drive gold prices higher. UBS predicts that interest rate cuts will continue and the dollar will weaken further, which will bolster demand for gold. In addition to gold, UBS has identified opportunities in copper and other transition metals. Global investments in power generation, energy storage, and electric transportation are expected to serve as long-term drivers of demand for these metals.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GOLD → Ahead is the Fed and the rate decision. What to do?FX:XAUUSD tested strong support on Tuesday at 2633 before traders moved into a buying phase, hoping a possible rate cut would support their intentions There is a 93% probability that the Fed may cut interest rates by 0.25%. But the thing to pay attention to here is the general backdrop - the Fed's stance. Hawkish hints about 2025 could have a much bigger impact than a rate cut, which is partially already factored in by the market. Any hint of fewer rate cuts next year could be a growth driver for the dollar. Powell's comments play an important role in assessing the situation for next year against the backdrop of Trump's policies Downside risks for gold are quite high due to the controversial situation in favor of the Fed's hawkish stance. Technically, the emphasis is on the local channel. A price exit beyond 2658 or 2633 will be accompanied by a strong impulse. Resistance levels: 2658, 2675 Support levels: 2645, 2633, 2620 The situation is very controversial and complicated, that's why several directions relative to the key zones are indicated on the chart. Everything depends not only on the actual rate numbers, but also on the Fed comments, namely we are interested in the tone and stance for next year. Recommendation - skip trading before the event and wait until volatility decreases to be able to adequately perceive the market position Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
11