U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Bearish Outlook with Key Levels📉 Bearish Bias on U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart
🔹 Resistance Zone & Stop Loss 🚫
📍 Resistance: 104.200 - 104.432
🛑 Stop Loss: 104.432 (Above resistance zone)
🔸 Support Zone 🛠️
📍 Intermediate Support: 103.300 (Possible bounce)
🔻 Target Point 🎯
📍 Target Price: 102.232 (Expected downside)
📊 Price Action Outlook:
✅ Bearish Scenario:
Price rejected from resistance 🔽
Lower highs forming ⚡
Breakdown expected toward 102.232 🎯
❌ Invalidation:
If price breaks above 104.432, bearish setup fails 🚫
🔥 Conclusion:
⬇️ Sell Bias below 104.200 targeting 102.232
❌ Cut losses if price closes above 104.432
DXY
Breakout on the DXY - Is the DXY going higher?What is the DXY?
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) measures the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies. A rising DXY indicates a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This can have significant effects on cryptocurrencies, particularly in the short- and medium-term. Here are some of the key impacts:
What does an increase in the DXY mean for crypto?
Negative Impact on Crypto Prices: As the dollar strengthens (rising DXY), the relative value of other assets, including cryptocurrencies, can decline. Many cryptocurrencies are priced in U.S. dollars, so when the dollar strengthens, the same amount of dollars may buy fewer crypto assets, leading to price declines for cryptocurrencies.
Safe-Haven Movement: When investors flock to the U.S. dollar due to its rising strength, they may move capital out of riskier assets like crypto and into the dollar or U.S. Treasury bonds, which are seen as safer. This can cause a decrease in demand for cryptocurrencies.
What can we conclude from the 4-hour DXY chart?
The DXY experienced a rapid decrease this month, resulting in a drop from 108 to 103. However, after this sharp decline, the price has shown some bullish signs.
First: The price action kept making lower lows while the RSI made higher lows, resulting in a bullish divergence.
Second: The price action formed a specific pattern commonly found at the end of a downtrend. This pattern shows that the price is making small lower lows and lower highs, suggesting market exhaustion and a possible upside move toward the resistance zone.
The resistance zone aligns with the golden pocket Fibonacci level, indicating it could be a strong rejection level.
It is highly probable that the DXY could make an upside move to the resistance zone and golden pocket after breaking this bullish chart pattern.
What do we see on the daily timeframe?
The price dropped rapidly from 108 to the support zone at 103. After consolidating at this level, the price made a slightly lower low, while the RSI made a higher low. This indicates a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe. Before this drop, the DXY formed a typical bearish chart pattern known as Head and Shoulders (H&S). The neckline of the pattern coincides with the resistance zone on the 4-hour timeframe and the golden pocket. This suggests that it may be a difficult level to break.
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DXY: Starting a new Channel Up rally into Summer.The U.S. Dollar Index is near the oversold zone on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.232, MACD = -1.040, ADX = 33.922) having reached the bottom of the 9 month Channel Up. The 1D RSI was oversold last week but is seen rebounding. This is exactly the kind of formation we had on the previous bottom of the Channel Up as well as the December 28th 2023 low.. The selling sequences that led to those lose have been almost the same as today's (-6.32% and -5.74%). The last Channel Up bullish wave reached exactly the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Consequently we can go long here with an acceptable risk, targeting the top of the Channel Up (TP = 113.000).
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eurusd h4 pullback in progress buy dips target 1150🏆 eurusd Market Update
📊 Technical Outlook
🔸Mid-term: BEARISH OUTLOOK
🔸Status: pullback in progress
🔸Hit resistance at 0950
🔸0650/0660 normal pullback
🔸300 pullback off the recent highs
🔸BULLS still maintain control
🔸Price Target Bears: 0650/0660
🔸Price Target BULLS: 1100/1150
📊🔥 Latest EUR/USD & Fed Update
🛑 Federal Reserve Decision:
🏦 Fed Holds Rates Steady – No rate cuts yet, citing economic uncertainty. 📉⚖️
📊 Growth Forecasts Lowered – 2025 GDP outlook down to 1.7% as trade tensions weigh on the economy. 🌍📉
💸 Inflation Expectations Rise – Now at 2.7%, signaling persistent price pressures. 🔥💰
💱 EUR/USD Market Reaction:
💹 EUR/USD Steady at 1.0900 – Traders await ECB President Lagarde’s speech for further direction. 🏦🇪🇺
📉 USD Under Pressure – DXY drops to 103.40, as declining yields weaken the dollar. 💵🔻
📊 Market Cautious – Investors eye ECB policies & Fed rate-cut expectations for next moves. 🔍
$USINTR - U.S Interest Rates (March/2025)ECONOMICS:USINTR
March/2025
source: Federal Reserve
- The Fed keep the funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%,
but signaled expectations of slower economic growth and rising inflation.
The statement also noted that uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased, but officials still anticipate only two quarter-point rate reductions in 2025.
Setup #006 - AUDUSD - Long (Not the cleanest)Trade entered. I used the 5 min for entry but Tradingview doesn't let me post it on a small time frame.
We should find out if this is a winner or loser during the rest of US/UK overlap. I personally think price wants to drop more, but my strategy says to buy, so I'm listening to the strategy, plus there is a nice risk to reward for this trade.
Confluences:
✅ Bullish overall bias
✅ Bulllish demand zone
✅ Bullish ABCD on 15 min chart, bullish impulse crab on H4
✅ Bullish divergence in price reversal zone
✅ Buillish break of structure
✅ Entering NY open
✅ Break of structure confirmed
✅ Required risk:reward met
Gold at $3,000: The Ultimate Panic Buy or Just Another Bubble? 💰 Gold Hits Record Highs – Because the World is on Fire 🔥
Ah, gold—humanity’s favorite panic button. As of March 2025 , gold prices have skyrocketed past $3,000 per ounce . Why? Because the world can’t go five minutes without a crisis. 🌍💥
Trade wars? Check.
Geopolitical conflicts? Check.
The eternal struggle between "experts" predicting doom and moonboys screaming ‘buy the dip’? Check.
With the U.S. economy wobbling like a Jenga tower after a few tequila shots and global uncertainty at an all-time high, investors are piling into gold like it’s the last lifeboat on the Titanic. 🚢💨
🏦 Central Banks: The Ultimate Gold Hoarders
If you think you have a gold addiction, meet central banks. These guys have been buying over 1,000 metric tons per year —basically turning their vaults into dragon lairs. 🐉💰
Why? Because they definitely trust fiat currencies… just not enough to NOT hedge against their own policies. 😏
China, India, and Turkey are leading the charge, stacking gold like it’s a limited edition NFT.
The logic? If everything goes to hell, at least they’ll have something pretty to look at.
📈 What Do the ‘Smart People’ Think? (Spoiler: They Don’t Agree 🙄)
Let’s check what the big banks are saying—because if there’s one thing banks are great at, it’s being consistently wrong with their predictions.
JP Morgan Private Bank is feeling "constructive" about gold. Which is just a fancy way of saying "Eh, we have no clue, but it looks good." They think potential Fed rate cuts could send gold higher. 🚀
VanEck highlights how central banks and investors drove gold to new highs in 2024. Basically, everyone’s running for cover while pretending it’s a “strategic allocation.”
🤔 Should You Buy Gold or Just Watch the Chaos?
Pros: You get a shiny rock that everyone suddenly cares about during a crisis. 🌟
Cons: No dividends, no passive income, and you basically just hope some sucker will pay more than you did. 😬
Gold is a great hedge when the world is melting down, but let’s not pretend it’s some magical wealth generator. If you’re buying, just make sure it’s not because your Uber driver said it’s "going to the moon." 🚀🌕
(Not financial advice. But definitely sarcastic advice. 🤷♂️)
If you want the deeper breakdown (the one nobody’s telling you), drop a comment or DM me. Maybe I’ll let you in on the real insights. 👀🔥
If you don't have DXY, keep an eye on USDCHF.Today we are waiting for the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, where the Bank is expected to keep the rates unchanged. However, it's the press conference, which we are more bothered about. Keep your eyes on TVC:DXY , but if you don't have MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX , then MARKETSCOM:USDCHF will be just as good.
Let's dig in.
FX_IDC:USDCHF
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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EUR/USD Analysis (4H & Weekly)Price broke liquidity above D candle → Now expected to drop to 4H FVG.
Waiting for 4H confirmation before entering a sell:
Break & Retest of key level.
Formation of FVG and retest.
Market Structure Break (MSB) in lower timeframe (15min).
Targets:
First: FVG Weekly Mitigation
SELL EURUSDGreetings to you all, in todays session we are monitoring EURUSD for a potential pullback from the highs of 1.0923 level. Our stops will be at 1.09618 and 1st target at 1.0800 and 2nd target at 1.06973. Be advised DXY is bearish generally and EURUSD is bullish, this only serves as a pullback trade. Use proper risk management.
NB: This is not financial advice.
USD/CHF: Bearish Continuation Towards Key SupportUSD/CHF has maintained a strong bearish trend, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. The chart highlights a **Deep Crab** harmonic pattern, which previously triggered a corrective move before resuming its overall downtrend.
Currently, price action is trading near **0.8767**, approaching a key support zone at **0.8722** (HOP level). The recent rejection from the **H4 supply zone** around **0.8920** further confirms bearish momentum, suggesting sellers remain in control.
**Key Considerations:**
- A breakdown below **0.8722** could accelerate further downside, extending losses towards lower psychological levels.
- A potential pullback may occur if buyers step in at support, but the overall bearish structure remains intact unless a significant reversal signal appears.
**Conclusion:** USD/CHF remains under bearish pressure, with a high probability of further declines. Traders should monitor price action at support for potential continuation or reversal signals before committing to new positions.
GBP/USD Market Analysis: Potential Short Setup at ResistanceThe GBP/USD pair is trading near the **1.3000** psychological level, showing signs of consolidation after a strong bullish move. The chart suggests a potential reversal as price approaches a key resistance zone, with an apparent liquidity grab at the recent high.
The highlighted area around **1.2946 - 1.2921** represents a significant **H4 demand zone**, where price could retrace before continuing its next move. A break below this zone would indicate a deeper correction, with potential downside targets towards **1.2870** (OA level).
**Key Considerations:**
- A sustained break above **1.3000** could invalidate the bearish setup, leading to further upside momentum.
- A rejection at this level, combined with bearish price action, could confirm a short opportunity with a target towards the demand zone and lower support areas.
**Conclusion:** Traders should monitor price action around the resistance level and confirmation of a bearish reversal before committing to short positions. If bullish momentum persists, a breakout could open the door for further gains.
GBP/USD - 1.30 Break I've been monitoring Cable closely, waiting for a clean break above the 1.30 resistance level. Since the start of the month, no solid entry has presented itself, but the bulls seem to be gaining momentum as time progresses.
The chart is shaping up well, with 1.30 acting as a key resistance level. We've already seen multiple rejections this month, with price coming within 10 pips before reversing sharply.
If we get a confirmed breakout above 1.30, I'll be watching for a retest to establish it as support before entering a long position. The target is set at the psychological level of 1.325, aiming for a 3:1 risk-to-reward.
Gold Bullish to $3,030 (4H UPDATE)As per yesterday's video update I gave you all, I said Gold would push higher into $3,030. That target has now been hit!
Gold has pushed up strongly today, up 380 PIPS in less then a day. I'm waiting for bullish momentum to slow down as an indication that market structure will shift to bearish. I'll be keeping an eye on the smaller TF.
3.18 Risk aversion and expectations of rate cuts support gold toIntraday data analysis:
Gold hit a new record high and maintained an upward trend. For the support below, pay attention to the upper rail of the 4-hour Bollinger band at $3010, followed by the integer position of $3000, which is also near the high point of gold prices on Monday; for the pressure above, pay attention to the upper rail of the weekly Bollinger band at $3028, which is also the upper rail position of the current 4-hour Bollinger band. If the gold price continues to break upward, the upper space can pay attention to the upper rail of the monthly Bollinger band at $2950. The 5-day moving average and the MACD indicator cross upward, and the KDJ and RSI indicators cross upward. The short-term technical side is bullish.
Gold intraday reference: Supported by risk aversion expectations and interest rate cut expectations, gold maintains an upward trend and gold prices hit a new record high. In terms of operation, it is recommended to treat it with a volatile mindset. Pay attention to the support below at $3010, followed by $3000. Pay attention to the breakthrough near $3028 for the pressure above. If it stands firm here, you can continue to pay attention to $3050.
We Need a Retrace before the breakout IMO on GoldI want to go long. I am long on gold. but I need to see it pull back and establish a low for he week first before I'm interested in attempting the long. This would make for a much stronger move. Just have to be patient and wait for it all to line up inside of the killzone.
The US Dollar... March has been a fantastic trading month for me so far. I'm out of drawdown and showing a half-decent profit.
This week, there is a lot happening, including interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan, Fed, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of England.
At the moment, I'm thinking about the dollar with two minds. Based on current positive economic data and the potential of higher US inflation, I'm bullish. On the other hand, I see the potential downside of the dollar based on US uncertainty, possible US recession, and the US losing its spot as a safe-haven and stable investment environment... 🤷♂️ What do you think?
NAS100 - Stock Market Enters Downtrend?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for further buying opportunities in Nasdaq. A break of the channel ceiling will also continue the short-term upward trend in Nasdaq.
According to EPFR data reported by Bank of America, investors withdrew $2.8 billion from equity funds last week, marking the largest outflow of the year so far. Meanwhile, U.S. government bonds saw an inflow of $6.4 billion, the biggest weekly increase since August.
Scott Basnett, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, stated in an interview that there are no guarantees to prevent an economic recession. He welcomed the decline in stock markets, viewing it as a sign of a healthy market. Analysts believe this shift in tone—unusual for a Treasury Secretary who typically reassures economic strength—suggests an effort to prepare the public for a possible recession.
According to data from the Polymarket betting platform, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is currently estimated at 41%. Reuters reports that American households are increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook. However, the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to respond aggressively to a weakening economy, given growing concerns that the Trump administration’s trade policies could further fuel inflation.
These concerns were reflected in financial markets on Friday, as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed a decline in consumer confidence for March. Additionally, consumers now expect inflation to reach 3.9% over the next five years, the highest level in more than 30 years.
In an interview with Breitbart, Basnett emphasized the need to remain vigilant against persistent Biden-era inflation and expressed support for deregulation to lower costs. He also stressed that while tackling inflation, the government must also address affordability concerns. Additionally, he backed interest rate cuts to help reduce housing costs and auto loan payments.
This week will be packed with major economic events, creating a high-risk environment for precious metals traders amid ongoing geopolitical developments during Trump’s second term.
Central banks are back in the spotlight, as several key monetary institutions are set to announce their policy decisions in the coming days:
• Tuesday: Bank of Japan
• Wednesday: Federal Reserve
• Thursday: Swiss National Bank & Bank of England
Furthermore, a series of macroeconomic data releases could influence market sentiment, including:
• Monday: Retail sales & Empire State Manufacturing Index
• Tuesday: Housing starts & building permits
• Thursday: Weekly jobless claims, existing home sales & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting. Market participants will closely watch the Fed’s updated economic projections and Jerome Powell’s press conference for insights into future monetary policy.
According to a Bloomberg survey, economists anticipate two rate cuts by the Fed this year, likely starting in September. However, despite declining stock indices and rising recession concerns, Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance, avoiding any rushed rate cuts.
While consumer and business confidence has weakened, the Federal Reserve has limited flexibility to lower rates due to persistently high inflation indicators.