Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 107.90
1st Support: 107.12
1st Resistance: 108.93
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DXY
Will Trump's tariff threat be an obstacle to an ECB rate cut?
Both short-term dollar weakness and the ECB’s increased inflation concerns have clearly propelled EURUSD upward. Finland's central bank governor, Oli Rehn, asserts that eurozone inflation will stabilize as anticipated and that monetary policy will continue to be constrained in the near future. Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde has issued a stark warning that the threat of tariffs is set to rise with Trump’s return to power, which could lead to significant inflation risks.
EURUSD breached above the descending channel’s upper bound and approached the resistance at 1.0470. EMA21 widens the gap after golden-crossing EMA78, indicating a possible shift to bullish momentum. If EURUSD breaches above 1.0470, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.0560. Conversely, if EURUSD breaks below EMA21 and the support at 1.0360, the price may reenter the descending channel.
DXY in 4H timeframehello dear traders
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the potential for a correction over the next month:
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy:
If the Federal Reserve signals a slowdown or pause in its rate hikes, it could put downward pressure on the DXY. Upcoming speeches or FOMC minutes will be key indicators to watch.
U.S. Economic Data:
Weaker-than-expected economic data, such as lower GDP growth, higher unemployment rates, or declining inflation, could suggest a less aggressive Fed policy, leading to a potential correction in the dollar.
Global Economic Trends and Risk Sentiment:
Increased risk appetite in global markets could drive investors toward riskier assets (like equities or emerging market currencies), reducing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.
Geopolitical and International Developments:
Any easing of geopolitical tensions or positive trade agreements between major economies could diminish the dollar’s safe-haven appeal and contribute to a potential correction.
Correlated Markets like Gold and Oil:
Rising prices in gold or oil often correlate with a weaker dollar. If these assets strengthen, it could be a sign of dollar weakness.
In summary, weaker U.S. data or dovish signals from the Fed, combined with a more favorable global economic environment, could increase the likelihood of a DXY correction over the next month.
DeGRAM | DXY pullback in the channelThe DXY is in an ascending channel between trend lines.
The price is moving from the upper boundary of the channel and dynamic resistance.
The chart has fallen below the support level.
We expect the pullback to continue
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XAUUSD - Gold will continue to rise?!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold climbs to the ceiling of the channel, you can look for positions to sell it towards the midline of the channel.
Investments in commodities are expected to remain a reliable hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty in 2025. Specifically, gold and silver are predicted to outperform other commodities.
Despite the optimistic outlook for 2025, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, advises investors to be cautious when constructing a commodity portfolio. Gold and silver, which showed strong performance in 2024, remain his top picks.
Hansen forecasts that gold prices will reach $2,900 per ounce this year, representing a 7% increase from current levels. However, he sees greater potential in silver, expecting prices to rise to $38 per ounce, a nearly 30% increase from current levels. He added that his outlook for the market remains bullish.
He also highlighted that gold will continue to serve as a key safe-haven asset through 2025. Hansen stated, “Investment demand for metals is increasing due to growing geopolitical uncertainties and global economic shifts. This has driven investors to seek safer assets, a trend that shows no signs of slowing down. Additionally, concerns about rising global debt, particularly in the United States, have prompted investors to turn to precious metals to safeguard against economic instability.”
However, Hansen urged investors to remain patient, as the Federal Reserve continues to unwind its accommodative monetary policies. Currently, markets anticipate only one rate cut this year, a significant shift from expectations just a few months ago. The Fed’s hawkish stance could support the U.S. dollar, potentially creating volatility in the precious metals market.
Jenny Johnson, CEO of Franklin Templeton, stated that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause to assess the impact of Trump’s policies on the economy.She noted that Trump’s spending pressures could provide a short-term boost to the economy, and his stance on deregulation is favorable for businesses.
Ron O’Hanley, CEO of State Street, remarked that he does not expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates more than twice this year. He also expressed heightened concerns about U.S. debt levels in the medium term.
DXY Is Going Up! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 108.100.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 109.402 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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GOLD (XAUUSD) Extraordinary SELL ComingGold (XAU/USD) Trading Signal and Analysis
Current Price: 2,743 USD
Sentiment: Bullish momentum continues despite potential volatility linked to macroeconomic factors, including Trump's return and increased demand for safe-haven assets by financial institutions.
Technical Outlook:
The price is currently testing a high zone between 2,743 and 2,751, approaching the upper boundary of its recent bullish range.
A retracement is anticipated, targeting at least 30% of Fibonacci retracement, aligning with a move toward the lower band of the Bollinger Band.
Signal:
Sell Zone: Enter short positions between 2,743 and 2,751.
Target: Aim for a price level near 2,670 on higher timeframes.
Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss according to your portfolio risk tolerance. Position it slightly above 2,760 to account for potential breakouts.
Analysis and Strategy:
Macro Factors: Bullish pressure is driven by demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, retracement is expected due to market corrections and profit-taking.
Technical Indicators:
Anticipated correction aligns with Fibonacci 30% retracement.
Bollinger Bands suggest a possible pullback towards the lower band as price reverts to the mean.
Support:
Support Zones: 2,670, with a minor level at 2,680.
Resistance Zones: 2,751–2,760.
Recommendation: Use position sizing and stop-loss placement that align with your portfolio's risk management strategy. Adjust take-profit targets if momentum extends the retracement.
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GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)As you can see from the last update, Gold has decided to push higher towards our 'Option 2' scenario. We've seen huge bullish momentum since the start of this year, which I'm viewing as liquidity grab for the year, before it can move down.
Gold is creating an 'Extended Flat Correction' hence why we are seeing such a long consolidation. Have to learn to exercise patience in these slow market conditions.
XAUUSD SHORT OPPORTUNITY 1:5
Fundamental Sentiment
Inauguration Day- Anticipating a bullish dollar NY open
Directional Bias
New York bias - Bearish bias
Price Action:
AMD Model this session: Accumulative price action in Asia, Bullish Manipulation start of London session. Anticipating a bearish distribution in New York
15mins market structure shift with a clear AOI at the bearish orderblock.
Setup invalidation
If price rallies above the high of London open, this will invalidate this setup.
DeGRAM | DXY seeks to close the gapDXY is in a descending channel between trend lines.
After the gap formation, the price has reached the lower boundary of the channel, the support level and the lower trend line, which previously acted as a rebound point.
The chart approached the 38.2% retracement level and is now holding above the resistance level.
We expect the rebound to continue if successfully consolidated above the resistance level.
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FTSE (UK100)BIAS: BULLISH
The FTSE(UK100) still ranging between 8400 and 8000... Break range and expect a big move (9K or retest 7800).
That rejection of 8100 makes me bullish bias X 2
If bias was to change
A solid push and resistance found around 8100-8000 would be expected.
Unless specifically timed with a low chance of alteration by external forces, anticipating the exact timing of events is unrealistic.
DXY- Start of correction?In my previous analysis of the DXY, I mentioned that the index might begin a correction after more than three months of upward movement and a 10% increase.
Yesterday, the market opened with a downside gap and broke below the rising trendline that had been supporting the price since the 100 mark. This suggests that 110 could now serve as a local top. As long as the price remains below this level, shorting the USD currency could present a viable trading opportunity.
I am currently looking for buying opportunities in currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD.
Levels discussed on 20th Jan 2025 Livestream20th January 2025
DXY: Currently below 109.40, break above, could trade up to 110 (previous swing high), beyond that, strong resistance at 111
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5575 SL 25 TP 60
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6170 SL 15 TP 40
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2150 SL 15 TP 40
EURUSD: Sell 1.0310 SL 30 TP 110
USDJPY: Buy 156.70 SL 40 TP 120
EURJPY: Sell 161.10 SL 40 TP 120
GBPJPY: Looking for reaction at 191.15
USDCHF: Choppy between 0.91 and 0.9150
USDCAD: Buy 1.4480 SL 30 TP 60
XAUUSD: Needs to stay above 2694 (trendline) to trade up to 2722 resistance
Gold showing strength after Trump entered White House
President Trump's recent phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping has created a strong expectation for a more conciliatory relationship with China. In response, the dollar, which had previously surged due to fears over tariffs and inflation, has begun to weaken and gold is on a consistent upward trajectory.
Goldman Sachs firmly predicts that gold will likely be exempt from widespread tariffs, asserting that there is less than a 10% chance of a 10% real tariff on gold being introduced in the next year. They also confidently forecast that the gold price will soar to $3,000 per ounce by mid-2026.
XAUUSD sustains a steady uptrend within an ascending channel. The price holds above EMA21, awaiting further price triggers to test the resistance at 2720. If XAUUSD breaches above 2720, the price may gain upward momentum toward 2735. Conversely, if XAUUSD breaks below EMA21, the price may fall further to the ascending channel’s lower bound, where EMA78 coincides.
GOLD is setting up for the week! Switched to doing my breakdown on the micro contract since is what I actually trade and the forex chart is not moving in sync with it currently so I cant trust that price action. Expecting for a set up on a major play tonight some time between Asian session and London. Price is ultimately bearish so we not looking to get in until price moves outside of value to give us a entry.