USD/JPY -H1- Bearish FlagThe USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 154.30
2nd Support – 153.52
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DXY
Euro maintaining uptrend due to short-term dollar weakness
The short-term dollar weakness is leading to a notable appreciation of the euro. Within the ECB, there are varying opinions regarding the future rate trajectory, but the prevailing sentiment strongly leans towards the necessity of further rate cuts. ING Group is confident that the ECB will cut interest rates by an additional 25bp at its monetary policy meeting this week and will pursue more gradual easing throughout the year.
It’s also crucial to closely monitor Germany's 4Q GDP and Spain's January CPI results set to be released this week. Germany's GDP (QoQ) is projected to drop to -0.1% from 0.1% in the previous quarter, while the market anticipates Spain's January CPI to rise to 2.9% from 2.8% in the prior month.
EURUSD broke below EMA21 and retreated to 1.0430. However, the price is still holding an uptrend, sustaining bullish momentum.If EURUSD breaks above EMA21 and the resistance at 1.0455, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.0530. Conversely, if EURUSD breaks below the channel’s lower bound, the price could test the support at 1.0400.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 107.16
1st Support: 106.51
1st Resistance: 107.92
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GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Friday's huge pump, followed by a bigger Monday dump! Gold went very close to its ATH, but has now started declining, staying below the major Wave 5 high, keeping our sell analysis valid so far.
I will be wary of Gold until we see a melt back below $2,690, as we can still possibly see it create a new high in the SHORT TERM. But overall, our sell bias is still holding valid🦾
DXY - 1H still bearish...While some signals indicate buy opportunities on the dollar index, I remain skeptical. As mentioned in our 4H analysis, the third bullish leg has been completed, and I expect a deeper correction in CAPITALCOM:DXY .
In the 1H time frame, we can observe that the second reaction to the support zone is significantly weaker than the first. This could indicate a potential breakdown of the support zone, with the index likely falling below the 107 level.
Let’s see how this plays out! Follow for timely updates and expert insights! 🚀
XAUUSD ( GOLD ) | 1 DAY | SWING TRADING | ICT STRATEGY Hey there, friends! 👋
I’ve prepared a gold analysis for you using the swing trading style. 📊 Currently, the daily analysis aligns with the ICT market maker sell model.
However, for these models to work, we need to see some sort of reaction in the market. Patience is key, so hang tight and wait for my analysis to be updated. ⏳
Once I spot a reaction, I'll share a golden target with you! 🎯
Don’t forget to hit the like button to stay tuned for updates! 🚀
Sell off across U.S. Equity into Monday U.S. openU.S. equity indicies failed to register new highs at the close of inauguration week on the heels of famed Trump 'tariff talk' and the initiation of mass immigration reform. Friday 1/24/2025 we saw the bulls slightly outnumbered by bearish interest before the 'full weight' of the move was felt coming towards the close of Sydney/open of London session into today Monday, January 27 of 2025. The dollar is weak, the price of metals is subdued as of writing and bonds have sky-rocketed across the board in a clear display of a flight to safety (guaranteed interest during a time of uncertainty in RISK-assets). Due to a clear risk off sentiment reflected in the flight to safety in the bond market, I'm calling U.S. equity indicies to be in a sell-off for monday 1/27/2025 across the board. We have MAGS and FAANG earnings reporting this week in addition to an FOMC meeting this coming Wednesday - While the price action might become a blood-bath for a while, it may or may not be part of an over-due correction of a broader sequence.
XAUUSD - Gold Enters the Last Week of January!On the 4-hour timeframe, gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is in its ascending channel. If gold rises to the previous ATH, we can look for selling positions at the ceiling indicated by the target of the midline of the ascending channel. A correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with its next buying position.
Last week, the gold market showcased one of its most stable and impressive performances in recent months, seemingly adapting to the shocks and uncertainties introduced by the newly established U.S. administration.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, highlighted that given global markets’ reaction to the unpredictability of the new U.S. president, there appear to be few barriers to new record highs for gold. He stated, “At this point, we can set aside technical and fundamental analysis. Gold is acting as a safe haven against the chaos stemming from the new U.S. government. No one knows what the next statement or action will be.”
According to the latest U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report released by S&P Global, the services sector index dropped to 52.8, marking its lowest level since April of last year and falling below market expectations of 56.5. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, exceeding the forecasted 49.7. The composite PMI also decreased to 52.4.
Although confidence in the services sector has declined from its 18-month peak in December, it remains the second-highest level recorded in the past year.Additionally, the services sector experienced the fastest rate of job creation in 30 months. Input costs and selling prices across sectors also rose at the fastest pace in four months.
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at S&P Global, commented on the data, stating that U.S. businesses began 2025 with optimism about the new administration’s policies. In particular, growth expectations in the manufacturing sector have increased due to anticipated government support. He also noted that while GDP growth slowed slightly in January, sustained business confidence suggests this slowdown may be temporary. The rise in hiring rates, driven by improved business outlooks, is another encouraging sign.
However, Williamson warned about increasing inflationary pressures. Companies reported that rising supplier costs and higher wages, driven by labor shortages, have led to price increases. If this trend continues, concerns about inflation could intensify, prompting the Federal Reserve to adopt more hawkish policies.
Rich Checkan, President and COO of Asset Strategies International, predicted that gold might experience a price correction in the short term. He explained, “While the long-term trend for gold remains bullish, thanks to the mismanagement of fiat currencies, I anticipate a price correction this week. Gold has approached historical highs today, but uncertainties surrounding the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could prompt investors to take profits, leading to a temporary price pullback.”
This week, officials from major central banks worldwide will convene to make critical decisions. These meetings come as discussions about President Trump’s tariff threats resurface. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Canada (BoC) are all scheduled to hold their monetary policy meetings this week.
GOLD → A correction before the final spurt to ATH - 2790 ?FX:XAUUSD has been shaking against the support at 2762 since the opening of the session. Most likely, the chances of ATH retest are still high. Dollar in correction gives chances to yellow metal lovers
Traders faced profit taking as they await Fed statements and the Trump administration's actions on trade tariffs. U.S. tariff plans and PMI data continue to influence sentiment, the dollar and gold. Economically, the week ahead will be quite important with Fed rate, US GDP and PCE decisions.
Technically, gold tested a key support zone, but the price did not reach the risk zone where we could expect a trend reversal. We can assume that the extra passengers were dropped off the train, taking their money ;)
Resistance levels: 2762, 2790
Support levels: 2751, 2747
The focus at this point is on the 2762 level. If the gold can consolidate above this support, then we should wait for 2790. Still, this is an important zone that cannot leave speculators alone. We are waiting for ATH retest and false breakout.
Regards R. Linda!
XAGUSD - Silver on the verge of a big week?!Silver is trading in its ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. If the correction continues, we could see a break of the channel bottom. A consolidation above $30.8 would provide a path for silver to rise to the supply zone, where we can sell at a risk-reward ratio.
According to the annual report by StoneX Financial, silver has been highlighted as one of the top-performing metals among both precious and industrial metals in 2025.Benefiting from its dual nature as a monetary and industrial asset, silver is set to gain from rising gold prices and strong industrial demand. In the report, Rhona O’Connell, Head of Market Analysis at StoneX, and Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Base Metals Analyst, forecasted that silver, alongside copper and tin, will outperform other metals in 2025.
Despite strong performance in 2024, with a 22% growth, silver is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025 as the top-performing metal. This projection is based on robust market fundamentals and promising future prospects that have attracted the attention of investors. Part of this growth stems from the long-term outlook for the solar industry, although new U.S. government policies might slow this trend.
Investment in silver is expected to remain strong, potentially even outpacing gold. While gold is predicted to peak this year, silver is anticipated to keep growing, with a price target of $33 by the end of 2025.
Copper and tin have also garnered attention due to their critical roles in the transition to green energy and digitalization. On the other hand, aluminum has been identified as a metal requiring cautious investment.
The report notes that silver has historically been recognized as a precious metal due to its history as a form of currency and its use in jewelry. According to the authors, “Silver’s relationship with gold has always played a key role in its price behavior, but in reality, this relationship is more complex.” They added, “Throughout much of last year, silver behaved like a precious metal during bullish trends and like a base metal during bearish ones. Statistical analysis confirms this. During U.S. economic recessions, silver’s price performance and correlation with gold and copper show that, more often than not, silver traded more in line with copper than gold. In inflationary periods, the opposite was true.”
StoneX attributes this to two primary reasons. They explained, “Firstly, the nature of silver’s supply, which is predominantly derived as a byproduct of base metals or from industrial scrap, prevents it from having a clearly defined equilibrium price in the market. Secondly, a small group of investors sees silver as an accessible way to capitalize on gold’s price volatility.”
They highlighted that “President-elect Trump’s suggestion that Mexico and Canada could face tariffs was enough to unsettle the market, even if these were likely negotiating stances rather than definitive decisions. Mexico accounts for approximately 25% of U.S. silver imports, and Canada accounts for 10%. Just the idea of such tariffs was enough to drive silver prices higher. However, as is often the case with silver, this movement was short-lived. This metal remains one of the most vulnerable to rapid and reactive price swings and should always be approached with caution.”
They concluded, “Silver will continue to respond to any significant activity in the gold market and will also see further transitions this year due to the ongoing fundamental investment deficit growth. While it may face headwinds from European recession and potential oversupply of solar cells, its long-term outlook remains bright, likely continuing to attract investors and speculative funds.”
Meanwhile, Lee Hardman, an analyst at MUFG Bank, noted that the depreciation of the dollar, following Trump’s statement that he would “prefer” not to impose new tariffs on China, might be limited. He argued that Trump is still likely to implement higher tariffs.
Trump has called for lower interest rates and a weaker dollar to support the U.S. economy. However, his policies of higher tariffs, stricter immigration controls, and tax cuts, if enacted, “are likely to bolster U.S. yields and the dollar for a longer period.” In an interview with Fox News, Trump stated that he “prefers” not to impose new tariffs on China, suggesting the possibility of a trade deal.
Gold 1H Intra-Day Chart 26.01.2025After this week's huge pump, I do believe Gold will be hitting $2,800+ soon. There's 2 ways in which it'll happen;
Option 1: Price consolidates around CMP, trapping in new sellers before it shoots up.
Option 2: We see a downwards retracement towards $2,720 before price recovers up again in February.
MELANIA COIN RUGPULL!You know the funniest part about the markets this past week?
Some of you really let Donald Trump & the US government drop the biggest rug pull in history! Hope any of you who were silly enough to buy this meme coin, let this be an EARLY INDICATOR & red flag of what the U.S. government got in store for the next few years. Use the puppet Donald Trump to get your hopes up with words, but screw you with actions😂
#MakeAmericaBrokeAgain2025😂
NZDJPY - 2025 Plan. Make It Your Best Year Yet!Here we have the 2 Day chart for NZDJPY.
We've seen a massive impulse mid 2024. We are now in an ABC correction.
We are currently in wave B of the correction, subwave B. Expecting subwave C to complete wave B.
We're looking for a rejection of the fib zone and a drop of over 700pips.
Trade idea:
- Watch for rejection of fib zone
- Once rejection appears, enter with stops above the highs
- Targets: 86 (350pips), 83 (700pips)
Once we've completed this move down, we'll be looking for longs. We'll update this setup if there's enough engagement.
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
DXY Possible ideaDXY has been bullish for quite some time now. From what we can see, it has been breaking highs with momentum. It has recently retraced back just above an unmitigated demand zone, where lots of liquidity is currently hovering above. It could use this liquidity to fuel its move to the upside after it mitigates this demand area, breaking the latest weak high that awaits a liquidity run.
The Market Matrix - Gold, Crude, Nasdaq & DXY for Jan 26 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix.
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USDCHFHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on USDCHF?
On the daily chart, the USD/CHF currency pair has reached a key resistance level. After testing this resistance, the price has entered a corrective phase, indicating signs of further retracement.
It is expected that after some consolidation, the price will continue its corrective movement toward the specified targets.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
DXY Will Go Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 107.464.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 109.437 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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