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GBPUSD Brace for a Sharp Drop to 1.3000! Free signal!Hello everyone. I want share my idea about GBPUSD. The U.S.-China trade deal breakthrough has fueled USD strength, pressuring GBP/USD after a surge to 1.3330. BoE’s dovish stance, with a potential 25 bps rate cut priced in, contrasts with a hawkish Fed, favoring USD. Upcoming UK CPI and U.S. CPI data this week could drive volatility—soft UK inflation may weaken GBP, while high U.S. inflation could bolster USD further. UK wage growth (5.9%) offers GBP support, but weak PMI and employer sentiment cap gains. Watch U.S.-UK trade deal news for potential GBP upside. With technical we can see last week we had some consolidation and this week started with high volatility and brake support. at the moment price testing resistance + 4h FVG. Scenario 1 (Bearish – Primary View): Price rejects the 1.3200–1.3275 FVG/resistance zone and resumes its downtrend, targeting the next major support at 1.3000—a psychological and structural level. This aligns with USD strength from the trade deal and BoE’s dovish stance . Trade Setup: Short below 1.3200, target 1.3000, stop above 1.3300 (above FVG). Scenario 2 (Bullish – Less Likely): Buyers break above the FVG (1.3275) and 1.3300, targeting 1.3350–1.3400. This would require a catalyst like soft U.S. CPI data weakening USD, but current fundamentals favor bears. Trade Setup: Entry below - 1.3190 (current price 1.32048) ensures confirmation of rejection. Stop above - 1.3280 (above FVG) protects against a bullish breakout. Target - I will follow trend with trail stop. For collaboration text me private! Always make your own research!!!
Short
by elmakacho
2 Charts in Monthly Time FrameThere’s a common misconception when it comes to the relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin — and it's time to take a deeper look. While the short-term movements of DXY can create temporary pressure on Bitcoin, the broader correlation tells a different story. If you zoom out and analyze the larger structure, an interesting pattern begins to emerge. Historically, when DXY enters a major rally within a wide-ranging diametric formation, Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily decline — in fact, it often follows the trend with a slight delay. This lag can vary between one to two months, but the eventual upward momentum in Bitcoin frequently aligns with DXY strength over extended periods. So before drawing conclusions based on daily fluctuations, take a step back — compare the macro charts, connect the dots, and you'll start to see a bigger, more nuanced picture.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by vs_sayin
$USIRYY - U.S Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Slows (April/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY April/2025 source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the US eased to 2.3% in April, the lowest since February 2021, from 2.4% in March and below forecasts of 2.4%. Prices of gasoline fell at a faster pace and inflation also slowed for food and transportation. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.1% fall in March but below forecasts of 0.3%. Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate steadied at 2.8% as expected, holding at 2021-lows.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
DXY Dual Perspective: Smart Money OB Short vs. Mid-Term LongThis chart presents two perspectives: My Perspective (Dipanshu - GreenFireForex): Expecting a bearish reversal from the current Order Block (OB) between 101.9 – 103.2, possibly due to inefficiency and early liquidity sweep. ChatGPT’s Refined Perspective: OB refined to 102.4 – 103.0 zone, aligning with imbalance and previous H4 structure break. A rejection from there is more probable. Target: Both views expect a drop toward the Demand Zone at 96.4 – 96.3, with bullish reversal expected from that key support. Let’s observe whether the DXY respects early inefficiency or reaches full OB. Comment your bias below! ---
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Greenfireforex
GBPUSDHello traders. Today's first signal comes from GBPUSD. To be honest, I don’t feel entirely confident about this trade — but I’m still taking it, trusting my system and strategy. 🔍 Criteria: ✔️ Timeframe: 15M ✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.50 ✔️ Trade Direction: Buy ✔️ Entry Price: 1.32022 ✔️ Take Profit: 1.32320 ✔️ Stop Loss: 1.31824 🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It's a trade I’m taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes. 📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies: 💡 Don’t forget to follow the page and subscribe to stay updated on future analyses.
Long
by Nurlan_PT
EURUSD Tests Head and Shoulders Target Ahead of CPIIn line with the inverted head and shoulders formation seen on the DXY from its 2025 lows, EURUSD has completed a breakout of its own head and shoulders pattern, reaching the 1.1070 target. With the 4H RSI rebounding from oversold territory, a bullish bounce for EURUSD appears likely toward the 1.1140 level. A clean hold above this resistance could extend gains to 1.1270, 1.1380, 1.1430, and eventually to the 2025 high at 1.1570. If dollar strength resumes and EURUSD falls back below 1.1070, downside levels to watch include 1.1000, 1.0920, and 1.0760. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
DXY Rebound or Reversal? All Eyes on the Bearish OB Zone! Analysis: As anticipated, DXY has now swept the major weekly/monthly sell-side liquidity (SSL) at 99.58, tapping deep into a high-probability reversal zone. This aggressive liquidity raid was followed by a sharp bullish reaction—marking the first signs of potential re-accumulation or a relief rally. Currently, price is pushing back toward a bearish order block (OB) that aligns with a dense cluster of confluences: A weekly FVG (Fair Value Gap) A monthly FVG that’s been previously respected Major supply resistance from previous highs around 108.40–109.39 This confluence zone is critical. 📍 Two Likely Scenarios: Rejection from OB Zone: If price respects the OB, expect continuation to the downside—possibly targeting a deeper structural shift and breaking below the recent SSL. Breakthrough & Reclaim: If price breaks and closes strongly above the OB zone, it opens the door for a move toward 114.60, the next major daily buy-side liquidity. 🧠 Either outcome offers a significant macro play, especially for risk-sensitive pairs (i.e., AUD, NZD, Gold, or equities inversely correlated to USD strength). Keep in mind, DXY's movement is heavily influenced by macroeconomic events, so dollar strength or weakness can cascade across global markets. Key Levels to Watch: Support: 100.215 / 99.58 Resistance: 108.40 → 109.39 OB zone Upper Target if invalidated: 114.60 ⚠️ DYOR. Let price confirm before bias is committed.
TVC:DXYLong
by INSIDER_INTEL
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 102.05 1st Support: 100.41 1st Resistance: 103.28 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
$IWM, small caps, not YET giving the "all clear"AMEX:IWM is the lone index still not in the clear 🚩 — backtesting its 200dma today and tagging the weekly mid-BB , just like in '22. Will it matter by week's end? If not, the bull is likely back across the board 🐂 This week's #CPI (Consumer Price Index) and #PPI (Producer Price Index) prints could significantly influence market direction across major indices — AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:IWM — especially with rate cut expectations in flux. 🧵Here's how: 1. Hot CPI or PPI (above expectations): AMEX:SPY : Likely to pull back as sticky inflation pressures broader S&P names, especially rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities. NASDAQ:QQQ : Could see sharper downside—tech stocks (many of which are high duration assets) are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations. AMEX:IWM : Likely the hardest hit. Small caps suffer from tighter financial conditions and depend more on domestic borrowing costs. 🟥 Result: Bearish across the board, with small caps underperforming. 2. Cool CPI or PPI (below expectations): AMEX:SPY : Broad lift, particularly in consumer discretionary and financials. NASDAQ:QQQ : Strong rally—mega cap tech loves the prospect of lower yields. AMEX:IWM : Outperforms if cooling inflation suggests easing ahead, since it's more leveraged to rate cycles and domestic growth. 🟩 Result: Bullish, with small caps possibly leading a relief rally. 3. In-line CPI/PPI : Markets may stay choppy or consolidate, with AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ more stable. AMEX:IWM remains at risk of drifting lower unless there’s a strong dovish narrative from the Fed or other macro catalysts. With small caps already lagging, this week’s inflation data could either validate its bearish divergence or spark a rotation rally if inflation AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:VIX $ES_F $NQ_F $RTY_F TVC:TNX NASDAQ:TLT TVC:DXY #Tariffs #Stocks
AMEX:IWMShort
by KobesyTrades
EurUsd…Daily FVG fill.Good day traders, I’m back with another setup but this setup is based on the GBPUSD setup I posted yesterday…go and look at it, to get the ideological. To be honest I don’t think the drop in price to start the week was unexpected because of the strength shown last week on the DXY and on the idea I posted on GBpUSD I highlighted that last week XXX/USD pairs did not perform as the USD/XXX pairs. Which explains why we open with a bearish move lower and now I believe price is gonna do as I expected it on GBPUSD before taking liquidity but strength was too strong. EurUsd on this respective TF we can see that it has been on a downward movement, and if we take a look at that healthy bearish leg. Price has left imbalances but the most visible one is the volume imbalance that I have shown you on the chart. For the rest of the day should price closer above the VI than I believe we can expect it to move higher till Thursday before DXY continues moving higher.
Long
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
2
Why Gold Is Pulling Back Now – May 2025 Update⚡️After surging above $3,500/oz in late April, gold has since declined over 8%, recently breaking below key levels and now trading near $3,210. The retracement reflects fading panic buying and growing attention to fundamental drivers: U.S. monetary policy, the strong dollar, easing geopolitical risks, and completed trade agreements. Here’s a breakdown of the leading catalysts and their current impact (ranked 0–10). 1. Fed “Higher for Longer” Bias Strength: 9/10 The Fed kept interest rates at 4.25–4.50% at its June policy meeting and reiterated its cautious stance. The absence of cuts combined with persistent inflation pressure is lifting real yields and undercutting gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. 2. U.S. Dollar Resurgence Strength: 8/10The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed above 101 as investors digest the Fed’s hawkish tone. A stronger dollar reduces global gold demand, especially from non-USD buyers. 3. U.S.–China Trade Agreement Reached in Switzerland Strength: 7.5/10 A formal trade deal was announced in Geneva in May, easing longstanding tariff tensions. While specific tariff rollback details are pending, markets welcomed the de-escalation, pushing investors away from gold and into risk assets. 4. U.S.–U.K. Trade Deal Signed Strength: 7/10 The U.S. and U.K. finalized a bilateral trade agreement in early May, boosting global sentiment and further reducing the geopolitical premium priced into gold. 5. India–Pakistan Border De-escalation Strength: 6.5/10 After brief clashes in Kashmir in mid-May, both sides have since released statements of restraint. The calm has helped cap gold’s safe-haven bids. 6. Iran–U.S. Nuclear Talks Update Strength: 6/10 Talks resumed in Vienna in May with cautious optimism. While no concrete deal has been signed, progress and diplomatic language from both sides have eased fears of escalation. 7. Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Developments Strength: 5.5/10 Localized ceasefires in eastern Ukraine, brokered by Turkey and the UN, have lowered near-term geopolitical risk. However, skepticism remains around long-term stability. 8. ETF Inflows & Institutional Demand Strength: 5/10 ETF inflows slowed in May (up just 48.2 tonnes), reflecting waning retail momentum. Still, central bank buying—especially from China—offers a medium-term cushion. Catalyst Strength Rankings (May 2025) 🔸Fed “higher for longer” bias 9 🔸U.S. dollar rebound 8 🔸U.S.–China trade agreement 5.5 🔸U.S.–U.K. trade deal signed 5 🔸India–Pakistan border easing 6.5 🔸Iran–U.S. nuclear diplomacy 6 🔸Russia–Ukraine ceasefire 5.5 🔸Global gold ETF & central-bank inflows 5 Where Next for Gold? ⚡️Current price: ~$3,210/oz 📉Recent support levels broken: $3,300 and $3,250 🎯Next technical floor: $3,150/oz ✨Upside triggers: Renewed dollar weakness, inflation surprise, or geopolitical flare-up Gold’s recent drop reflects the market's rotation out of fear-driven trades into yield-bearing and risk assets. While the Fed and the dollar remain dominant forces, any shock—whether geopolitical or inflationary—could quickly reignite interest in gold as a hedge.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ProjectSyndicate
44
XAUUSD - Is Gold Going Down?!Gold is trading in its descending channel on the four-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. A downward correction in gold will open up buying opportunities from the demand areas. Investors in the precious metals market witnessed another week of gold’s strong performance. Although overall optimism about a potential reduction in trade tariffs slightly slowed gold’s momentum, robust demand from Asia and other global regions provided solid support, preventing any major market correction. At the beginning of the week, gold prices fell by over 1% on Monday as news of a trade agreement between the U.S. and China prompted investors to shift toward riskier assets. This drop occurred alongside easing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, which also contributed to a calmer market atmosphere. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamison Greer announced that the two nations had reached an agreement during negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The deal, which is expected to be released as a joint statement, signals a reduction in trade tensions that had escalated in recent weeks with tariffs reaching as high as 145% on Chinese imports. As part of the agreement, the U.S. and China plan to establish a joint economic and trade consultation mechanism to continue discussions on tariffs. President Donald Trump hinted last week at a potential reduction in tariffs to 80%, although the official details of the deal have yet to be disclosed. Adam Button, Chief Currency Strategist at Forexlive.com, commented that in the current market environment, it is difficult not to be bullish on gold. However, he warned that any de-escalation in U.S.-China tensions could dampen the strength of gold’s rally. He added, “Even though a 50% reduction in tariffs wouldn’t be the final chapter, if implemented, it would represent fairly rapid progress and a positive sign for both parties.” In addition to trade developments, the easing of tensions in Kashmir and a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan have also reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The ceasefire, brokered by the United States, remained largely intact over the weekend. Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, stated that his outlook on gold remains unchanged. He explained, “Rising concerns over a potential U.S. recession, coupled with cautious optimism about easing trade tensions—especially between Washington and Beijing—could exert pressure on gold. However, gold’s notable resilience against price declines indicates underlying demand that has not yet fully entered the market.” Meanwhile, Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, firmly maintained a bullish view on precious metals. He said, “If I had to write one analytical sentence on the market board, it would be: Precious metals must rally. I emphasize ‘must’ because nothing is certain in the markets. My bearish call last week was wrong, and it’s clear that technical analysis has become almost obsolete—especially in today’s world where algorithm-driven trading dominates.” After a week largely influenced by the Federal Reserve’s meeting and tariff-related headlines, market focus now shifts to a data-heavy week featuring a broad range of U.S. economic indicators. The action kicks off Tuesday with the release of the April Consumer Price Index (CPI), a report that could offer insights into whether the Fed might cut interest rates in its June meeting. The real highlight, however, is expected on Thursday, when key reports are scheduled to be published, including the Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales figures, jobless claims data, and two major regional indices—the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and the Empire State manufacturing index. Amidst this flood of information, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also set to deliver a speech in Washington, which could serve as a major catalyst for market movement. To wrap up the week, markets await Friday’s release of the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May—a report often viewed as a psychological gauge of American consumer behavior.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
DXY Has More To The UpsideDXY is right now in what I believe to be a 4th wave correction, which has turned into a wxy, and probably also will turn into a WXYXZ. It has plenty of room to develop. Since 4th wave corrections has a tendency to enter the area of the 4th wave of previous impulse, it will most likely go up to the area of the green rectangle above. This will be between 103.2 - 104,7. If it will go further up before heading down is to early to say. But my previous forecast about it will go down below 96 is still in play and intact.
TVC:DXY
by TheDane
US DOLLAR Analysis: Bullish Momentum Building?TVC:DXY is finally showing signs of stabilization. The index has successfully rejected a key support level, an area where price has historically attracted strong buying interest. This level closely aligns with the psychological $100 mark, which has once again acted as a pivotal point for market participants, reinforcing its relevance as a key technical level. The recent price action confirms bullish interest, as evidenced by a strong rejection pattern within the zone, with long lower wicks and bullish follow-through candles. The support zone held firm, and buyers have stepped in, initiating an upward move. Now that price has bounced from this level, the probability of a continued rally increases. If the bullish momentum sustains, the price could move toward the 102.500 level, a logical near-term target based on previous structure and minor resistance. However, a failure to maintain above the 100.00 handle or a sudden shift in sentiment could still pose downside risks. A confirmed breakdown below the green support zone would invalidate this bullish outlook and potentially open the door for further declines. Remember, always confirm your setups and use proper risk management.
TVC:DXYLong
by TrendDiva
92
NAS100 - Stock Market Expects a Devastating Week!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect corrective moves from the specified range, but if the index corrects towards the demand range, we can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with a good risk-reward ratio. U.S. stock futures responded positively to signals from both Chinese and American officials. Looking ahead to the coming week, investor focus is squarely on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the United States—marking the first chance to assess the impact of the new tariffs implemented on April 9. Meanwhile, ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China remain a crucial factor, with significant implications for inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and overall market expectations. In addition to inflation data, retail sales figures and the preliminary results of the University of Michigan sentiment survey could influence market outlook regarding interest rates—especially since price stability and full employment remain core mandates of the Federal Reserve. At present, Fed officials are working to maintain a cautious stance in order to anchor inflation expectations. However, if clear signs of economic weakness emerge, that stance could shift rapidly—something that several Fed officials have already openly acknowledged. Retail sales, in particular, could provide a different narrative about the health of the economy. After a notable 1.5% jump in March, estimates suggest that growth in April slowed to just 0.1%. This deceleration may reflect consumer reluctance to spend, stemming either from inflationary pressures or broader economic uncertainty. Thursday’s data release will include the Producer Price Index (PPI), industrial production, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index—offering a clearer picture of supply-side dynamics and the performance of the industrial sector. On Friday, attention will turn to a fresh batch of economic indicators: building permits, housing starts, the New York (Empire State) manufacturing index, and especially the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey. This survey has gained importance in recent months due to notable increases in both one-year and five-year inflation expectations. As recent charts indicate, while consumer confidence has plummeted to multi-year lows, inflation expectations have trended upward—a worrisome combination that could limit the Fed’s ability to ease monetary policy. Although concerns about a U.S. recession persist, recent data suggest more of a “gradual slowdown” rather than signs of an imminent crisis. In March, both the CPI and PCE indices declined, indicating a temporary easing of inflationary pressures. However, this trend may reverse in April, as the broad implementation of reciprocal tariffs likely raised import costs—particularly for Chinese goods, which now face duties as high as 145%. New estimates indicate that these tariffs could add 2.25% to core inflation over the next year, effectively reversing the progress made in 2024 on taming price pressures.Prior to the Trump administration’s tariff announcements, economists had differing views on inflation, with some expecting it to approach the Fed’s 2% annual target by year-end. Contrary to trade experts, Trump claimed that sellers would not pass these price increases on to consumers. Goldman Sachs’ analysis this week suggests that Trump’s tariffs could push inflation to levels not seen since the post-pandemic price surge. The broad import taxes announced between February and April may have a substantial impact on the economy, and consumers are likely to feel the effects first at the checkout counter. Goldman economists estimate that the tariffs could drive annual inflation—as measured by core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)—to 3.8% by December, marking the highest rate since 2023. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose 2.6% last year. This metric remains above the Fed’s 2% target and has shown limited progress toward that goal since 2023. The last time inflation was below this benchmark was in January 2021. A renewed wave of price increases could severely strain American household budgets—particularly if the labor market also weakens, as many economists anticipate. This would also represent a significant setback for the Federal Reserve, which has kept interest rates elevated since 2022 in an effort to combat post-pandemic inflation. While inflation hovered around 3% at the beginning of 2024 with little change, it saw a notable drop in March. Many analysts forecast that inflation will continue to decline and approach the 2% target by the end of 2025. Walker and Peng’s analysis factored in both the direct effects of tariffs—most of which will likely be passed on to consumers—and several indirect consequences. The trade war has unexpectedly weakened the U.S. dollar, reducing Americans’ purchasing power. Moreover, some manufacturers may shift production away from China, where tariffs are particularly severe, to locations with higher production costs. As a result, American consumers may end up paying significantly more for imported goods, especially in categories like consumer electronics and apparel.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
GBPUSDToday's other trade opportunity comes from the GBPUSD pair. The first days of the week usually don’t behave exactly as expected — there's often volatility, fake moves, and false breakouts. That's why I prefer to approach Mondays with a lower risk appetite. 🔍 Criteria: ✔️ Timeframe: 15M ✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 ✔️ Trade Direction: Sell ✔️ Entry Price: 1.32940 ✔️ Take Profit: 1.32690 ✔️ Stop Loss: 1.33066 🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It's a trade I’m taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes. 📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies: 💡 Don’t forget to follow the page and subscribe to stay updated on future analyses.
Short
by Nurlan_PT