🦘🦘 Aussie Kangaroo Returns Home In The OutbackThe Australian dollar has been taking a bath. It’s gone from buying 71 US cents at the beginning of the year to netting you just 63.3 US cents against the benchmark greenback.
The dollar is down over the last year against most currencies, and down over the past few weeks against almost every currency.
The humble Aussie dollar is suffering in particular against European currencies: Pound Sterling, the Swiss Franc and the Euro.
However, even in Japan where the AUD is up over the year so far, it is down in recent weeks.
What’s going on? The answer is two-fold.
👉 America’s economy is stronger than expected. And China is weaker, so Chinese yuan has little to no chance of dethroning the US dollar, even as global de-dollarization happens.
👉 Australia gets hit on both of those trades.
Difference between 10-Year United States and Australian Govt Debt becomes lower
Technical graph for FX:AUDUSD indicates that Aussie has a lot down to deliver.
DXY
DXY: HTF Analysis (72D)What’s Happening Now on the High-Timeframe?
The DXY measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies. On the 72-day chart, we’re seeing signs of a potential shift, but the overall trend is still in downtrend territory. Keep an eye on how the price reacts to these levels and stay ready to adjust your strategy!
RESISTANCE (Areas where price struggles to rise above):
If Resistance holds firm, Price Action could reach Support I (see below)
If Resistance is strong, Price Action could short to Support II (see below)
118.53 (Sell Limit Order II): the 2nd resistance level for sellers
117.09 (Supply Zone): This is a hard ceiling for now, far above the current price.
113.50 (Sell Limit Order I): the 1st resistance level for sellers
110.29 (Resistance) If the price keeps getting stuck here, it might fall back down.
SUPPORT (Areas where price might stop falling):
100.4180 (Support I): The first major safety net if the price drops.
95.8590: A deeper support that could attract buyers.
93.96 (Support II): The second major safety net if the price drops.
89.9269: A historical level where prices have bounced in the past.
OSCILLATORS (Measure speed or momentum of price)
Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 81.36, it suggests the price is overbought, meaning it’s been rising too fast and might slow down.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI): At 134.004, it’s signaling a potential SELL since the price might drop soon.
Momentum: Shows a weak SELL signal, suggesting the upward speed is losing steam.
MACD: Shows a small BUY signal, meaning there’s still some upward energy left.
MOVING AVERAGES (Track average price over time)
Most moving averages (10-day, 20-day, etc.) show a BUY, meaning the price has been above its averages and is in an uptrend for now.
Hull Moving Average: Shows a SELL signal, hinting at potential short-term weakness.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The Good News (for buyers): The moving averages suggest that DXY is still in an upward move on shorter timeframes, with prices above key averages.
The Bad News (for sellers): Oscillators like the RSI and Momentum show that the current upward push might be losing strength. The market might correct (fall) soon.
If the price struggles to break 110.2990, it might fall back to 100.4180.
A breakthrough above 112.5000 could lead to a move toward the 118.5326 zone.
Even though we’re seeing some upward action now, the bigger trend is still downward. A reversal would need sustained movement above major resistance.
If price falls: Look for potential rebounds around 100.4180 or 95.8590.
If price rises: Be cautious as it approaches 112.5000, where sellers might come back in.
Right now, DXY is facing challenges near 110.3990. If it can’t push higher, it’s likely to fall back to lower levels.
Moving averages suggest strength, but oscillators are hinting at exhaustion. This mix of signals means you should be cautious and wait for clear moves.
Apparently, bright days are ahead of DXYDXY has underwent a reversal:
1- A clean inverted head and shoulders
2- A dropping wedge break high (Which is a reversal at the end of the bearish move)
3- Break and retest of the inverted head and shoulders and the wedge simultaneously
4- Ichimoku cloud broken high as well, indicating the shifting trend bias
Expect the target area as marked on the chart either by the end of this year or whenever FED announces rate cuts.
Best of luck and happy trading!
DXY at 108.4: The Dollar’s Midlife Crisis—Breakout or Breakdown?Alright, traders, let’s not sugarcoat it. What you’re looking at here isn’t just another chart—it’s the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) standing at the gates of destiny. 💥
🔥 The Setup:
Testing the almighty 108.4 resistance. Will it smash through like a battering ram or faceplant into oblivion? 🤔
Riding the top of the Bollinger Bands like it’s a rollercoaster at peak speed. Overbought much? 🎢
RSI? She’s chilling at 59 —neither here nor there but whispering “don’t count me out just yet.” 🧘♂️
🚀 The Bullish Dream: Break 108.4, and this thing’s flying to the moon (or at least 112). Bulls will party like it’s 1985. 🐂💃
💀 The Bearish Nightmare: Rejected here? Say hello to a pullback at 104, and if things really hit the fan, we’re looking at 100.6. Bears will sip their coffee smugly. 🐻☕
But here’s the kicker: DXY isn’t just a chart—it’s the puppet master pulling the strings of everything from Bitcoin to gold to your morning cup of coffee. ☕ (Yes, inflation is still a thing.)
⚡ Final Word: Whether it breaks or bends, this is the make-or-break moment for the dollar. Get ready for fireworks. 🎇
George out. ✌️ #DXY #DollarIndex #Forex
New Year, New GOLD Plays! LETS GO!!!Being that this is the year after a US Election I am Bullish on Gold and looking for new highs to be made. We might just get a break out this week. it looks like price is setting up for something. Keeping a eyes on things as we slide into 2025 to remain in tune when things pick up in Feb!
Weekly Forex Forecast: Last Show For 2024Dec 30th to Jan 3rd.
USD is still strong, and so are the indices. I will be looking for buys until there is a significant bearish Break of Structure.
A strong USD is a headwind for Gold, Silver and the other metals. It is also a headwind for GBP, EUR and the other majors. USDCHF, USDCAD and USDJPY should see some upside.
Thank you for hangin' with me for 2024! I hope you found a benefit in my weekly forecasts this year. 2025 will be even better!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 107.49
1st Support: 106.72
1st Resistance: 108.52
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DXY at a Critical Juncture: Will Bulls Break the Resistance?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently consolidating just above the ascending trendline while approaching a critical horizontal resistance zone around 108.00.
The price action shows a contracting triangle pattern, suggesting indecision in the market. A breakout above the resistance could confirm bullish momentum, potentially driving the index toward 109.50 or higher. Conversely, a breakdown below the ascending trendline and support zone could indicate bearish pressure, targeting the next key level at 106.50.
es1! retests 5kes1! appears poised for a larger move down, based on the smaller timeframe count .
this leads me to believe that es1! has entered a larger fourth wave. historically, these waves take an average of 2 months to play out and typically result in a 12% decrease from the high before completing.
wave 4's often retrace back into the territory of the prior degree's wave 4, and i expect this one to follow suit.
pay attention to the green trendline i've drawn on the chart,,, it serves as a solid guide for where i anticipate es1! to find a bottom. dipping below the trendline is acceptable, provided we don't see any weekly candle closes beneath it. even if a weekly candle does close below, a strong recovery the following week, such as a gap-up scenario , could invalidate the breakdown.
there’s not much else to add here, as the chart is fairly straightforward. keep an eye on the trendline and monitor weekly closes for confirmation.
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GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)I am expecting a ‘complex correction’ of the Elliott Wave Theory, to complete the correction on Gold. So a 5 Sub-Wave pattern (A,B,C,D,E). This correction should push the price down towards $2,240 roughly. We can then look to start buying Gold again at cheaper prices. At the most extreme, if the bigger institutional firms want to really shake people out of buying Gold before it creates new high’s towards $3,200+, I would not rule out the possibility of price dropping towards $1,960 as an extreme target.