DXY
DXY: Bulls Are Winning! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 99.377 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 99.823 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue to Fall?!Gold is trading in its ascending channel on the 1-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. I expect the direction ahead for gold to be bullish and if it breaks the downtrend line, we can look for buying opportunities.
The U.S. dollar rose following a decision by the United States Court of International Trade to revoke tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. Since the Trump administration, there have been continual developments regarding tariffs, and this latest ruling, which blocks Trump’s retaliatory tariffs, has stirred uncertainty and confusion over its legal validity. The ruling also triggered a correction in gold’s upward trend.
According to the U.S. Constitution, the power to impose tariffs officially resides with Congress. However, since 1962, much of this authority has been delegated to the executive branch. Courts have historically upheld this delegation to the president, but this recent judgment casts doubt on the legitimacy of such executive powers.
The pressing question now is whether Trump can circumvent the ruling. Could he potentially ignore it or take counteraction? Any move by Trump in response would undoubtedly ripple through the financial markets.
Goldman Sachs has characterized the court’s decision as a new obstacle for Trump’s trade strategy, though it notes the ruling only applies to part of the tariffs.Analysts at the firm believe Trump may find legal or procedural means to work around the court’s decision, possibly introducing new strategies to maintain his tariff agenda.
Citing customs data, ING commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey reported that despite record-high prices, China’s gold imports reached their highest level in eleven months last month. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have surged by more than 20%.
Total gold imports climbed to 127.5 metric tons, marking a 73% increase from the previous month. This sharp rise followed the People’s Bank of China’s issuance of new import quotas to select commercial banks in April. With a year-to-date gain exceeding 20%, gold hit an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April. Key drivers of this rally include geopolitical risk and sustained purchases by central banks.
In the broader metals sector, China’s refined copper production in April reached a new monthly record, rising 9% year-on-year to 1.25 million metric tons, even as processing fees remained low. Meanwhile, lead production declined by 1% from the previous year to 664,000 tons, while zinc output edged up by 0.3% to 576,000 tons.
According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminum production in April remained flat compared to the prior month, averaging 201,100 metric tons per day. However, on a year-over-year basis, output increased by 2.24%.
USDJPY - Will the dollar weakness stop?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see a downward trend and then see the demand zone and buy in that range with an appropriate risk-reward ratio. A credible break of the indicated resistance range will pave the way for the currency pair to rise.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasized that investment is more crucial to economic growth than tariffs, reaffirming Japan’s continued commitment to negotiating the removal of U.S. trade tariffs. He also pointed to encouraging signs in the Japanese economy following wage increases and offered an optimistic outlook on the country’s recovery.
Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, speaking on Wednesday, warned that significant volatility in ultra-long-term bond yields could affect short-term borrowing costs, which in turn might exert a stronger impact on the broader economy. His remarks highlight the BOJ’s growing focus on recent fluctuations in long-dated bond yields, which could influence the board’s decision next month regarding the pace of its bond purchase reduction.
Ueda explained that in Japan, short- and medium-term interest rates tend to have more direct influence on the economy than ultra-long yields, due to the maturity structure of household and corporate debt. However, he acknowledged in a parliamentary session that sharp moves in ultra-long yields can also affect long- and even short-term bond yields indirectly.
Turning to Friday’s inflation report, expectations suggest that overall inflation remained subdued in April, as falling gasoline prices provided some relief to household budgets. However, core inflation—excluding food and energy—remains stubbornly high.
The PCE inflation index is anticipated to have risen 2.2% in April from a year earlier, slightly down from 2.3% in March, marking the lowest level since last September. Federal Reserve officials are still awaiting more data on how newly imposed tariffs are feeding into the broader economy, making it unlikely that the recent moderation in inflation will prompt a rate cut in the near term.
Although the Fed’s preferred inflation measure may have reached its lowest point since September, a second consecutive month of encouraging price data is unlikely to be sufficient to justify easing interest rates.
According to a survey conducted by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal, economists expect Friday’s report—covering inflation, income, and spending—from the Bureau of Economic Analysis to show that consumer prices rose 2.2% year-over-year through April. This would mark the lowest reading since September and a potential turning point in the Fed’s battle against post-pandemic inflation.
Goldman Sachs economists noted that falling gasoline prices have more than offset the inflationary impact of new tariffs introduced by the Trump administration. However, they cautioned that this dynamic may not last, as retailers are likely to start passing along the added import tax costs to consumers in the coming months.
Several Federal Reserve officials, concerned that tariffs could reignite inflation, have stated that they will wait to assess the full impact of these trade policies on the economy before making changes to the federal funds rate—which directly affects borrowing costs on everything from mortgages and auto loans to credit cards.
US500 - Will the stock market reach ATH?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect the index to continue moving, and on the other hand, if the index declines towards a certain zone, you can also look for the next S&P long positions with a risk-reward ratio.
Yesterday, a U.S. federal court halted the implementation of President Trump’s “Freedom Day” tariffs. The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that these tariffs exceeded the legal authority granted to the president and unanimously decided to revoke them. Nonetheless, Trump still retains the right to appeal the ruling.
Following the court’s decision, President Trump promptly filed an appeal. In response, the White House issued a statement asserting, “The decision on how to handle a national emergency should not fall into the hands of unelected judges.”
Meanwhile, the market reacted strongly to Nvidia’s latest financial report. The company’s stock surged by as much as 5.8% in after-hours trading, before settling at a 4.8% gain compared to the previous day.
This bullish movement reflects investors’ confidence in Nvidia’s continued strong performance.
Nvidia is actively expanding into new markets, including the Middle East—an indication that the company is poised for sustained growth even if its presence in China is constrained.
The rally in Nvidia’s stock didn’t just lift semiconductor companies; broader markets followed suit. The S&P 500 index climbed to 6,005.75 points, representing a 1.7% increase from the prior session.
According to the company’s announcement, Nvidia posted $44.1 billion in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, marking a 69% increase year-over-year and slightly surpassing analysts’ expectations. Revenue from data center operations rose 73% to reach $39.1 billion.
CEO Jensen Huang stated: “Our Blackwell NVL72 AI supercomputer—designed for reasoning and acting as a ‘thinking machine’—is now being mass-produced by system builders and cloud service providers.” He added, “There is enormous global demand for Nvidia’s AI infrastructure. Over the past year alone, AI inference token generation has grown tenfold. As AI agents become mainstream, the demand for AI compute will continue to surge.”
A Reuters poll now projects that the S&P 500 will reach 5,900 by the end of 2025—down from the 6,500 level forecast in February. Similarly, the Dow Jones index is expected to close 2025 at 43,708, compared to the previous projection of 47,024 from the February survey.
Separately, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported that the increase in U.S. bank profits was largely driven by growth in noninterest income. Bank earnings in the first quarter of 2025 rose by 5.8%, reaching $70.6 billion. While overall asset quality remains favorable, the commercial real estate loan portfolios continue to show signs of weakness. The number of “problem banks” declined by three, bringing the total down to 63. The banking industry also reported a slowdown in lending growth; the annual loan growth rate for the first quarter was just 3%, down from the pre-pandemic average of 4.9%.
Gold Still bearish for the momentLooking for gold to fill in a Bullish gap before I consider longs. price is pretty bearish this week and im thinking it due to the contract roll and month end close. Looking for price to find some area of support before considering going Long. As always we wait for the Killzones.
GBP/USD Breakout (28.05.2025)The GBP/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3424
2nd Support – 1.3380
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eurusd 20 short-term market update short it exit 1160🏆 EURUSD Market Update m20 short-term trade
📊 Technical Outlook
🔸Short-term: BEARS 1160
🔸5 waves impulse completed
🔸1090/1240/1140/1350/1270/1410
🔸a/b/c/ correction 1160
🔸short sell and exit at 1160
🔸Price Target Bears: 1160
Key recent developments in EURUSD
📉 The U.S. dollar weakened as investors grew concerned over President Trump's proposed tax and spending bill, which could significantly increase the national debt
📈 The euro reached a one-month high after President Trump delayed the implementation of 50% tariffs on European Union imports, providing a temporary boost to investor confidence
🗣️ European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde suggested that the euro could become a global alternative to the U.S. dollar, contingent on strengthening the EU's financial and security infrastructure
📊 Technical analysis indicates that the EUR/USD pair may edge higher within a range of 1.1360 to 1.1420, though upward momentum is slowing
📉 Soft inflation data from France has increased selling pressure on the euro, as markets anticipate a stronger divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank
📉 The EUR/USD pair is under bearish pressure, trading near 1.1350, as the U.S. dollar finds demand ahead of upcoming economic data and ongoing Senate tax debates
SELL DXYThis week the USD has been retracing, most traders are going long but we know how this goes. Based of our strategy and approach we are still very much bearish on the USD. Our positions for shorts are at 99.916 and adding more shorts at 100.500. Our targets remain at 94.760. If you are catching this set up now then your stops should be above 1011.300. Use proper risk management and risk what you can afford to loose. Best of luck folks.
GOLD - WAVE 4 CORRECTION TO $2,800 (UPDATE)After hitting both of our buying targets of $3,274 & $3,318, Gold pushed a little higher than expected. But price came back down again & is following our sell bias very nicely!
With Wave B now supposedly complete, Wave C bearish momentum can now continue down. Gold has been extremely bearish since the start of this week.
the trap has layerswhat if i told you the dxy was not done yet,
what if i told you, there was 1 more push up,
1 more test before it truly breaks and starts a bull market.
what if i told you that on that final test, that final push up,
the crypto market breaks and takes everything.
---
you probably wouldn't believe me.
---
looking at the dxy as a simple zig-zag with a complex flat in the b-wave.
once wave b is completed, at about 110-111,
i predict it drops down, deep
and while it drops,
it triggers alt season.
🌙
DXY OUTLOOK BEFORE FOMC | Will the Dollar Break Trend DXY OUTLOOK BEFORE FOMC | Will the Dollar Break Trend or Just Retrace?
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded after weeks of relentless selling pressure, but this bounce is now approaching key decision zones just ahead of two critical events: the April PCE report and the next FOMC meeting. With macro data and sentiment diverging, traders should closely monitor how the dollar reacts to upcoming catalysts.
🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
Core PCE Price Index (Apr) – due Friday – is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A higher-than-expected print may reinforce the “higher for longer” stance on rates.
FOMC Minutes revealed a growing divide within the committee: some members remain open to further tightening if inflation stalls.
Bond market stress is emerging again, as 10Y yields hover near 4.5%. Fiscal concerns and treasury auctions are weighing on investor sentiment.
Political noise – particularly from former President Trump’s shifting tariff threats – adds short-term volatility to USD expectations.
🧠 Bottom line: While the dollar has regained ground, macro risks remain asymmetric. A hot PCE may spark short-term demand for USD, but structural credibility risks are still on the table.
📊 TECHNICAL INSIGHT – H1 STRUCTURE
Price Channel: DXY broke slightly above a well-respected descending channel that started mid-May.
EMA Confluence: EMA 13, 34, and 89 are beginning to align upward but haven’t fully confirmed a bullish trend yet.
Key Retest Zone: 99.08 is a critical zone — a Fibonacci 38.2% level of the recent breakout. A hold here may support another test higher.
🔑 KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS
Immediate Support: 99.08 (Fib 38.2% + channel retest)
Mid Resistance: 100.02 (round number + previous structure high + near 200 EMA)
Major Target Zone: 100.48 (Fib 61.8% + multi-day pivot)
📈 POTENTIAL PRICE SCENARIOS
If DXY respects 99.08, a continuation toward 100.02 and even 100.48 is plausible as a technical correction.
If DXY fails to hold 99.08, the breakout above the trend channel may turn into a false break, opening the door for a re-test of lower channel support near 98.30.
Watch for price behavior around 100.02 — aggressive sellers may re-enter at this level, especially if macro data disappoints.
⚠️ STRATEGIC REMINDER
Avoid chasing mid-range price action.
Let the market reveal its hand post-PCE.
Volatility is expected to spike — be patient and let key levels define directional conviction.
AudCad..PWL taken!!Good day traders, I’m back with another setup on AudCad and I like that previous week low was taken. We can now look at the power of 3 with higher TF in mind.
On the 4H TF price has been bearish but we can see that price left very “smooth” highs(relative equal highs) but ICT teaches us that price will always go back to make the smooth highs, smooth cries(liquidity sweep).
Before price took our low it left a FVG that’s we wanna see turn into an inverse.
The first target has to be our internal liquidity than the external liquidity that also has relatively equal highs too.
EUR/USD Holds Above 16-Year ChannelThe U.S. dollar, pressured by debt concerns, has declined toward critical 2025 lows near the 98 level. Meanwhile, the euro has stabilized near 1.1380, now trading above the upper boundary of a 16-year descending channel originating from the 2008 peak and extending through 2024.
This breakout positions EUR/USD for a potential long-term bullish move—provided the DXY confirms further downside. A firm monthly close above 1.16 would confirm the breakout, setting sights on highs from 2018 and 2021, between 1.20 and 1.24.
On the downside, key pullback levels are 1.1270, 1.1140, and 1.1070. A break below those could extend pressure toward 1.0990 and 1.0890.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
GBPAUD…being the best is a mindset!!Good day traders, I am back again with another great setup and again another opportunity to learn something new.
On the daily TF on GBpAUD we still in a bearish structure and if we use the 2022 model, we had a structure shift lower and now that price is retesting the OTE entry levels we can now expect price to shoot lower, before you asked about the recent FVG on 4H TF. That newly formed BISI is that candle that created the BPR and from what I’ve learned is that price normally shoots past BPR’s.
My poll of liquidity is resting below(weekly), that Ray line makes weekly represents previous week’s low which we want to see the market get to. Just on top of that ray line we have a FVG that price left open, we also wanna see price fill that FVG fully.
$US10Y and $DXY Divergence and correlation breakdownRecent weeks we might have missed some underlying churn in the market dynamics. Recently there has been a clear visible divergence in TVC:US10Y and TVC:DXY in midst of all the noise about the tariffs. Usually with rising TVC:US10Y yield the US Dollar index TVC:DXY rises with it as visible in the chart below. In this blog we have been following the downward slopping channel in the TVC:US10Y and the yield has remained within this tight range of the channel. In our last blog on 02 May 25 we called for a lower TVC:US10Y @ 4%. Seems that call was incorrect and I was wrong. But in this space, we have been asking for a lower $DXY. The TVC:DXY chart is making lower highs and lower lows and in a verge of a breakdown.
So we have higher TVC:US10Y which is capped to the upside @ 4.6% visible from the upper end of the downward slopping channel and we have TVC:DXY making lower lows but the correlation is broken in the recent weeks as shown in the daily chart below. This kind of unpredictable market behavior it’s difficult to forecast equity market direction. TVC:US10Y seems to create headwind for equities but the lower TVC:DXY is good for risk assets like CRYPTOCAP:BTC , SP:SPX and $QQQ. Hence this push and pull will keep the markets range bound for now.
Verdict : TVC:US10Y currently at top of the range, downside more likely ; TVC:DXY continues to struggle and in penalty box.
DXY: Move Down Expected! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 98.579 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 98.459 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Gold H4 Technical update and key levels bulls/bears📊 Technical Outlook Update H4
🏆 Bull Market Overview
▪️stuck in range for now
▪️overhead resistances will limit upside
▪️Bears key S/R: 3410/3460 USD
▪️Bulls key S/R: 3160/3240 USD
▪️Expect range price action
▪️Focus on selling high / buying low
▪️volatility likely to remain low
▪️next few weeks as no major headlines
⭐️Recommended strategy
▪️short high and buy low
▪️detailed price levels above
▪️right now no trade recommended
Latest gold market updates:
📈 Gold surges as renewed tariff threats and geopolitical tensions drive safe-haven demand.
💳 Fiscal concerns escalate after the U.S. credit rating is downgraded, increasing investor interest in gold.
📊 Analysts identify $3,300 as a crucial support level, with strong buying interest keeping prices elevated.
🔮 Major banks project gold to surpass $4,000 per ounce within the next year, citing robust demand from both investors and central banks.
💍 Record gold prices prompt jewelry designers to shift toward 14-karat gold and alternative materials to control costs.
📉 Gold jewelry demand in India continues to decline due to high prices, while investment gold purchases rise.
🌍 Central banks, especially in emerging markets, sustain gold purchases to hedge against currency volatility and inflation.
🛡 Gold maintains key support above $3,200 despite market volatility and profit-taking pressures.
📈 Leading investment banks remain bullish, forecasting significant upside for gold through year-end.
💰 Gold is currently trading near $3,358 per ounce, reflecting ongoing volatility and global economic uncertainty.