Dxy_short
FOMC Press Conference - DXY - Double Three - USD Getting TrashedFOMC Press Conference is right around the corner and the outcome is being watched by traders all over with much interest.
Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a Triple Three Pattern which would mean that USD could get trashed once more, just as it did on my previously posted "FED December Rate Hike – DXY Technicals – Elliott Wave Analysis" article when I said that the FED would increase the rates but expecting a Bearish trend.
Now the Market is in a similar spot and it looks like the USD is positioning once more.
My 2 cents on the event:
Rate Hike to occur from 1.50% towards 1.75% benchmark points, making the USD Bullish until the Press Conference
Jerome Powell not to signal more than 3 Rate Hikes this year, making the USD Bearish and forcing traders to trash the dollar
*Entries and scenarios available for our Members.
DXY waiting on the Dust to SettleWith the Dollar consistently producing strong data its only a matter of time before the chart reflects it. I'm starting to be more bullish especially with the stall and range the EURO has itself currently in. I'm expecting the index to break to the top but we will see as anything can happen in the markets.
If the index breaks north the target will be the 90.40 area and the further north 90.92 area.
If we see a break south our target will be the 89. 40 area and further south 89.00 area.
As always do your own do due diligence.
Keep Calm and Forex.
DXY Bearish - Double Three Pattern UnfoldingDXY (Dollar Index) Structure shows me that it has more chances to show a Bearish outcome than a Bullish one.
According to the previously posted DXY - Cheating with the Joker - Double or Triple Three? video, this could very much turn out to be true.
Wave Counts suggests that the Double Three Pattern is complete and that DXY could start unfolding a possible Ending Diagonal towards 87.30 Levels.
Preferred direction is Bearish and the Main Count is my favorite at these times, however, should the Dollar Index start a Bullish move, I would be looking for limitations around 91.40 Levels.
Main Count vs Alternate Count:
Alternate Scenario:
If DXY would surprise with one more Bullish Swing, it would be most probably considered as limited because that would imply extending the current Corrective Structure from a Double Three into a Triple Three, which would rarely occur.
*Note: 91.40 would be closely watched if this scenario would turn out to be true.
Reasons:
50% Fibonacci Retracements of Minute III (red)
150/161.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Minuettes (w)&(x) (purple)
Bearish Divergence expected at the mentioned Fibs
Preferred Scenario:
Expanded Flat within a Double Three Pattern would be considered as complete at these stages as multiple facts point towards that possibility.
38.2% Fibonacci Retracements of Minute III (red) have been reached (default measurements for Minute IV (red)).
False Break-out caused by Minuette (x) (purple) decreases the chances of the Triple Three scenario
100% (default measurement) Fibonacci Extensions of Minuettes (w)&(x) (purple) have been reached
Sub-Minuette c (blue) of Minuette (y) (purple) unfolded as an Ending Diagonal which is seen as a reversal Patern
Minuette (ii) (black) shows a possible Right Shoulder in a Head & Shoulders Formation, which is a Continuation Pattern
Recent up-swings are causing lower-highs which could be a solid sign of upcoming Bearish Divergence
Dollar Index 2H Interactive Chart:
USD/JPY - Running Flat pointing towards 103.00
USD/CHF pointing towards 0.9050
Many pips ahead!
Possible Sell Trade in DXY, Bearish Signals (D1)There may be a sell move for The Dollar Index, encountered resistance at 90.92
Clear 12345 Elliot Wave - Bearish Impulse followed by correction.
Will DXY maintain its strength?
EMAs levelling and maybe be in the process of converging and MACD showing signs of Divergence in the Daily.
Clear breakout of channel will be surefire confirmation.
Possible target of approximately 80.25 which was February's support.
All the best!
DXY price is approaching near to the six year long uptrend lineDXY Weekly
Price is nearing a very important price point 88, after breaking the massive symmetrical in 2014, it never had a pullback near to the triangle except for last year's fall which is ongoing. Pre-break out of the symmetrical triangle a well respected uptrend line was formed in 2011. After more than three and half years price is finally coming to re-test this six-year long uptrend line, massive Fib confluence, support and uptrend line converge around 88. Break of this area will leave a potential to retest the triangle @80 and if the uptrendline is respected then a potential move towards @110. If price fail to hold the traingle then the equal move down from 2002 will break DXY to 54 range (Damn). Mind you long term chart of this is bearish and this fall (From 2017)is after perfect retest of 61.8% retracement of 2002 high.
DXY to continue lower from these levelsDXY is looking to continue lower from current consolidation levels. We broke head and shoulders from my recent chart and now have been in a downwards channel and broke below that as well. On USDCAD news this morning, we didn't see the dollar push up any on a nearly150 pip spike in USDCAD pair and now USDCAD is about to breach 1.24. I continue to see weakness in DXY continuing.
DXY Short - Longer term pictureShort DXY. We have broken the upwards channel alongside a head and shoulders and now are in a bearish channel. We are retesting the neckline from current levels to 92.50/92.60 as a good short entry. Retail is long the dollar and are calling bottoms everyday which gives me a further bearish outlook on the dollar index.
USDCAD Loonie ShortUSDCAD A.k.a The Loonie Has some Further Downside Potential. After the 160+ Pip move Last Friday on Strong CA Data and Weak US Data, We saw a huge sell off and a slight pullback. On the Hourly Timeframe we have a MA Cross and A Clean Break of the Trendline. I already have some Short Running and have now added to my positions hoping to achieve the Target 2 which also coincides with the -61.8% extension target and a key area of support at 1.2200.
We Have US PPI Data Later This week. Will this Push the Loonie Down Further??
FX:USDCAD
Dollar Index DXY short bias, monthly downtrendDollar Index DXY has a short bias, monthly downtrend with new supply zone created overhead, shorts at daily and weekly supply imbalances around 91 and higher. There is a void to be filled if monthly lows around 91 are broken. Most USD cross pairs are filling that void already and breaking lower. Shorts as well at daily and weekly supply zones on USDCZK, USDPLN, USDSEK, USDSGD, USDCLP, USDRON, and a few more.
Dollar is completing H&S top, suggesting next step lowerFrom past week DXY index was completing the right shoulder, today price finally broke the neckline. Still time to close but the massive engulfing candle looks like we will get a clear neckline break of the H&S. Let see if the Dollar hit the low of 90 in 2018.