3.25 Gold short-term operation technical analysis suggestionsOn Tuesday (March 25), the spot gold market showed a trend of consolidation under the interweaving of multiple factors.
Fundamental analysis: the game between policy expectations and risk sentiment
1. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut dominates the market sentiment
2. The suppression of risk aversion demand by risk events
3. Short-term disturbance of macroeconomic data
Technical analysis:
The current price fluctuates narrowly in the range of 3000-3033 US dollars. As the upper edge of the transaction concentration area in the past three months, 3000 US dollars has become a battleground for long and short positions. If the daily closing price effectively falls below this position, technical selling may push the price down to the support area of 2982-2978 US dollars, or even test 2956 US dollars (the support of the previous breakthrough position conversion). On the contrary, if the price stands at 3033 US dollars (overnight high), it is expected to challenge the historical high of 3057-3058 US dollars set last week, and a new round of upward space will be opened after the breakthrough.
Resistance: 25 30 40
Support: 18 08 3000
Dxyanalysis
3.26 Gold 3020 shock adjustment technical analysisOn Wednesday (March 26) in the Asian session, spot gold prices traded above $3,020/ounce, and the market is reassessing the potential impact of the latest U.S. tariff policy on global commodity liquidity.
Interpretation of intraday technical analysts:
The 60-minute chart shows that gold prices are at a critical decision point, with MA55 (3019.70) and MA14 (3015.83) gradually approaching, and prices stabilizing above MA200 (3009.71), and the short-term moving average system showing a bullish arrangement. It is worth noting that the price of $3,020 constitutes an important intraday balance point, the MACD indicator diverges from the bottom and presents a golden cross, DIFF (0.54) crosses DEA (-1.07), and the column expands to 3.20, indicating that momentum is accumulating. The three RSI lines are unified in the neutral area of 54.05, leaving room for price breakthroughs. The first resistance above is in the 3028-3033 range. If it breaks through, it will test the previous high of 3047; the 3011.67-2997.86 area below forms a dense support belt.
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3.25 Gold short-term shock callbackGold's current strong trend in the large-scale cycle trend has changed. Pay attention to the support band around 2950 during the week. In the 4-hour level trend, the price rebounded and touched the previous pressure band and then began to fall back. The short-term moving average continued to diverge downward and continued to be weak in the short-term trend. The price began to slowly fall below the short-term terraced support band, tending to have a downward space in the short-term trend. The short-term trend began to show signs of stabilizing slightly after a wave of rapid declines. Pay attention to whether there will be a second downward trend after a small rebound and repair in the late trading. If it falls below 3000, look at 2990 85 below. Otherwise, look up 20-30
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Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (103.800) Day trade basis.
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🏴☠️Target 🎯: 105.400 (or) Escape Before the Target
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EUR USD Entry Setup 30M Timeframe🔹 Pattern: Double Bottom
🔹 Entry Condition: Wait for a clean break and retest of the neckline before entering.
No confirmation = No trade.
🔹 Higher Timeframe Context: Overall trend is bearish: this is just a pullback to the Lower High before a potential continuation of the downtrend.
⚠️ Patience is key let’s see how it plays out!
3.24 Gold intraday operation ideasAfter last week's intense volatility, this week's market sentiment diverged significantly, with different categories performing differently. In addition, as the month is coming to an end, market risk appetite is reduced, so it is necessary to be cautious.
We still need to pay attention to economic data this week, because we need to observe the prospects for US economic development through data, and another thing is inflation, which the market and the Federal Reserve are concerned about.
Last Friday, the world's largest gold ETF added 20.08 tons of positions at one time, which was the eighth consecutive increase. This kind of continuity is relatively rare. In theory, it is a positive support for gold prices, but the increase and decrease of ETFs is more viewed from a medium- and long-term perspective.
The initial pressure on the intraday gold price is around $3,026, and the further pressure is around $3,035. The strong pressure or the long-short dividing point is at the high point of $3,040. The current rebound is slightly stronger, and it may be the first to continue the rebound.
The primary support below the day is around $3005. After breaking down, further support is at $2995. If the first retracement is near this level, you can intervene and buy. The rebound target price is around $3020. As for whether the rise can continue? It must stand firmly above $3040. Below this level, there is a risk of retracement at any time.
BUY: 3005 Stop loss: 2995
TP1:15
TP2:25
TP3:35
SELL:3040 Stop loss: 48
TP1:30
TP2:20
3.26 Technical analysis of short-term gold operationsGold is still supported by risk aversion, but it quickly fell back after rising. In fact, the support of safe-haven gold is not surprising. However, since the gold bulls did not continue, it means that the space for gold bulls is also limited. Gold rose and fell in the US market. Gold was directly short at 3032. Gold fell as expected. The US market rebounded high and was still short.
Gold's 1-hour moving average is still in a downward dead cross. Gold bulls cannot reverse the situation. Gold fell directly to 3035 in the US market under pressure.
Support level: 3018 3005 3000
We will update regularly every day and introduce to you how we manage active ideas and settings. Thank you for your likes, comments and attention, we are very grateful
DXY:Maintain a long position above the daily line supportOn Monday, the price of the US Dollar Index generally showed an upward trend. On that day, the price rose to a maximum of 104.422, dropped to a minimum of 103.814, and closed at 104.285. Looking back at the price performance on Monday, after the opening in the morning, the price initially came under pressure and declined in the short term.
Subsequently, when the price reached the 103.80-90 area, it stopped falling and then started to rise, and finally closed with a large bullish candlestick on the daily chart. Currently, since the retracement and rally on Monday have provided confirmation, if the price remains above the 103.80 level in the subsequent period, a swing long position can be taken.
In the short term, on the four-hour chart, attention should be temporarily paid to the support in the range of 104.00-104.10. After the price reaches this level in the future, further upward movement should be observed. In the short term, attention should be paid to the resistance in the area of 104.50-104.90 on the upside.
Trading strategy:
buy@104.00-104.10
TP:104.50-104.90
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US Dollar Weakens: Hedge Funds Shift to Short PositionsThe U.S. dollar, long considered a bastion of stability, is facing a significant shift in sentiment as hedge funds begin to adopt a bearish stance. This reversal, marking a notable change since the period following Donald Trump's election, is driven by a complex interplay of economic uncertainties and evolving market expectations.
Factors Driving the Bearish Turn:
• Shifting Federal Reserve Expectations:
o A key driver of this bearish sentiment is the evolving outlook on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Initially, expectations of a strong dollar were bolstered by projections of limited Fed rate cuts. However, growing concerns about the fragility of the U.S. economy have led to increased expectations of multiple rate reductions. This shift in expectations weakens the dollar's appeal.
• Economic Uncertainty and Trade Policies:
o Concerns surrounding potential trade wars and the impact of certain economic policies are also weighing on the dollar. Uncertainty about future trade relations and their potential impact on U.S. economic growth is creating apprehension among hedge fund managers.
o The impacts of possible public sector job cuts, and restrictive immigration policies, are also adding to the economic uncertainty.
• Data from the CFTC:
o Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals a clear trend. Speculative traders have moved from holding significant long-dollar positions to net short positions, indicating a substantial shift in market sentiment.
• Global Economic Factors:
o The relative strength of other global economies also plays a role. If other global economies are showing signs of stronger growth, that can also put downward pressure on the dollar.
Implications of a Weaker Dollar:
• Impact on Global Trade:
o A weaker dollar can have significant implications for global trade, potentially making U.S. exports more competitive while increasing the cost of imports.
• Inflationary Pressures:
o A depreciating dollar can also contribute to inflationary pressures within the U.S. as import prices rise.
• Investment Flows:
o Changes in the dollar's value can influence international investment flows, as investors adjust their portfolios in response to currency fluctuations.
Market Analysis:
• Analysts are closely monitoring these developments, with some revising their dollar forecasts downward. The shift in hedge fund positioning underscores the growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook.
• It is important to understand that the currency markets are very dynamic, and things can change rapidly.
• The effects of political events, and world wide economic changes can have very large effects on the dollar.
In essence, the shift in hedge fund sentiment reflects a growing recognition of the complex economic challenges facing the U.S. As these challenges unfold, the dollar's trajectory will remain a key focus for investors and policymakers alike.
Potenial inverse head and shoulders pattern for Bitcoin This is the scenario I’m believing in for the near term for BINANCE:BTCUSD .
One more leg down to confirm the neckline around 78,300 USD.
Quick reversal price action to retest the 92,300 USD (ish) level.
If the breakout takes place to the upside, then I think we will retest the previous highs, with a higher probability of going much higher. Although I believe the tariffs will have a big impact on the USD (DXY index), which I believe will have a strong effect on BTC for the near term, around the coming 6 months. So, I believe the new high will most likely come in Q4 this year, making this cycle different from the historic crypto cycles. Although, there is still a chance that other countries will start to adopt more crypto-friendly policies for crypto or Bitcoin, making this thesis more uncertain. If the policies come out as positive, then I think there are good chances of reaching new highs earlier than Q4, 2025.
DXY Update – Two Possible Scenarios! 📢 DXY Update – Two Possible Scenarios! 📢
1️⃣ Bearish Scenario: Looking for sell from the Bearish OB 🎯
2️⃣ Bullish Scenario: If price doesn’t reach the Bearish OB, we shift focus to the Bullish OB for a potential buy ✅
📌 Waiting for price to approach key zones & using confirmations for entry!
📊 Stay updated with our latest analysis – Follow our TradingView page! 🚀
3.22 Gold Short-term Trend Analysis and SuggestionsTechnical analysis:
From the daily chart, technical indicators show signs of upward exhaustion and lose strength at extreme levels. At the same time, gold prices are holding above all bullish moving averages, with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) providing dynamic pressure near 2941.70. From the 4-hour chart, the 100-period SMA and 200-period SMA continue to move higher, well below the above short-term moving averages. At the same time, the momentum indicator moves lower in the positive area but loses downward strength; while the relative strength index (RSI) corrects the overbought condition and then stabilizes near 61. Overall, Zhang Jinglin recommends wide fluctuations in gold operations today!
Short-term operation strategy:
SELL: Short near 3045 above, stop loss 3051, target near 3015, 3000.
We update regularly throughout the day and tell you how we manage active ideas and settings. Thank you for your likes, comments and attention, we are very grateful!
3.21 Gold peaking or rebounding?The three tracks of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands have shrunk severely, and the current range is compressed in the 3056-3012 range. As time goes by, the range will continue to shrink. The short-term support middle track and the MA30 moving average correspond to the 3034-3020 line. The 4-hour indicator macd has a high-level dead cross and runs with large volume. The dynamic indicator double lines are glued together and flat, indicating that there are signs of further decline in the 4-hour period. Pay attention to the suppression of the 3042-45 line in the short term.
The hourly macd dead cross is initially established, and the dynamic indicator sto is quickly repaired downward, indicating that the price shock is weak. At present, pay attention to the resistance of 3042-48 above.
In summary: Pay attention to the support of the 3025 line below during the day, and pay attention to the suppression of the 3057 line above. Combined with the shrinking of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, the short-term price remains in the range of 3025-3053. The short-term resistance is at the 3042-45 line.
Resistance: $3,045; $3,079; $3,100; $3,108
Support: $3,018; $3,000; $2,974; $2,956
Dollar Index at Risk: Key Support Holds the Fate of the TrendThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has broken down from a Head & Shoulders pattern, confirming a bearish reversal after a successful retest of the neckline. The price is currently near a key support area, and if it fails to hold, a drop toward the lower strong support zone is likely.
Additionally, RSI is showing bearish divergence and is below the neutral 50 level, indicating weakening momentum.
DYOR, NFA
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Bearish Outlook with Key Levels📉 Bearish Bias on U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart
🔹 Resistance Zone & Stop Loss 🚫
📍 Resistance: 104.200 - 104.432
🛑 Stop Loss: 104.432 (Above resistance zone)
🔸 Support Zone 🛠️
📍 Intermediate Support: 103.300 (Possible bounce)
🔻 Target Point 🎯
📍 Target Price: 102.232 (Expected downside)
📊 Price Action Outlook:
✅ Bearish Scenario:
Price rejected from resistance 🔽
Lower highs forming ⚡
Breakdown expected toward 102.232 🎯
❌ Invalidation:
If price breaks above 104.432, bearish setup fails 🚫
🔥 Conclusion:
⬇️ Sell Bias below 104.200 targeting 102.232
❌ Cut losses if price closes above 104.432
3.21 Gold Short-term Analysis and Operation SuggestionsGold hit a record high on Thursday (March 20) after the Federal Reserve hinted that it might cut interest rates twice this year, further enhancing the attractiveness of gold amid the current geopolitical and economic tensions. As of press time, spot gold was basically stable near $3,030, having hit a record high of $3,057.21.
——Gold Technical Analysis
From the daily chart, the volume indicator is firmly aiming higher, supporting another wave of gains, while the relative strength index (RSI) is stable near 72. At the same time, the price of gold is trading above all its moving averages, with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) providing dynamic support near 2,936. From the 4-hour chart, technical indicators have eased from extreme levels, but are far from indicating an imminent downtrend. In addition, the 20-period SMA continues to rise steadily, currently around 3,011, while well above the longer-term moving average. Overall, Zhang Jinglin recommends rebounding and shorting as the main operation of gold today!
Gold short-term operation strategy:
SELL: 45 Stop loss 55
TP1:35
TP2:25
TP3:10
3.20 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsOn Wednesday, gold maintained a bullish trend! In yesterday's trading:
1: Following the trend principle, the support is stuck at 3020, but the amplitude of the retracement is not given to the retracement near 3020, the lowest is the range of 3022-3025.
2: For short orders, avoid short orders directly; because there is no price reference for short orders, no indicator reference for short orders, therefore, avoid all of them;
3: In terms of trend, at the current stage, the bullish trend is still continuing, therefore, do not catch the top, do not think about catching a large-scale short order, it is not realistic for the time being!
In today's market:
1: 4 hours, the stochastic indicator is in a golden cross state, the main long signal; MACD double lines are glued together, and the state of passivation divergence! These signals suggest that the market is mainly controlled by bulls during the day, and it is difficult to fall sharply for the time being; in terms of form, the continuous positive rise and the broken positive oscillation form, the short-term support position is near 3040; the high point is unknown;
2: In the daily K, the stochastic indicator continues to form a golden cross, which is a bullish signal; in terms of form, the continuous positive rise is the main trend, and the short-term support position today is near 3040;
To sum up: today's short-term trend thinking; the support positions are near 3040, near 3020; near 3000, followed by around 2990; near the support, the trend thinking;
3.20 Focus on the long and short battle of the Federal Reserve!!On Wednesday (March 19), the spot gold price continued to fluctuate at a high level during the Asian and European sessions, hitting a record high of $3,045/ounce during the session, and then fell slightly to around $3,029. The market focus is highly concentrated on the upcoming Fed's March interest rate decision.
Fundamentals: 1. The struggle between risk aversion demand and policy expectations
2. Rising geopolitical risk premiums
3. Trump's tariff remarks sparked concerns about economic recession
4. Fed policy expectations dominate short-term fluctuations
Technical aspects: Long and short game in high-level fluctuations
4-hour structure chart:
Bollinger Band pattern: upper track 3044.86, middle track 3031.24, lower track 3017.63, the current quote 3030.49 is close to the middle track, indicating a short-term balance of long and short forces. If the price stands firm on the middle track, it is expected to test the upper track (3044) again; if it falls below the middle track, it may seek support from the lower track (3017)
Moving average support: The 100-day moving average (2928.75) and the 200-day moving average (2903.27) form a long-term support band, and the price difference with the current quotation exceeds US$100, further verifying that gold is in a strong cycle.
Resistance level: 3050 3080 3100
Support level: 3018 3000 2980
3.19 Gold continues to peak, waiting for the Fed's interest rateThe gold market continued to rise strongly after opening yesterday, reaching the highest point of 3038 and then consolidating at a high level, with no obvious adjustment in the middle. Although we determined that the market would surge, it was still stronger than expected. The daily line finally closed with a big positive line with a slight shadow line. After this pattern ended, the bulls in today's market are still there.
Resistance level: 3045 3050
On 3.19, gold continued to fluctuate upward after breaking throuAs a safe-haven asset, gold has attracted more buying amid global political tensions: the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the continued strikes by the United States against the Houthi armed forces in the Red Sea region may affect the energy supply chain. The uncertainty of the ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has led to a high risk aversion in the market. The increase in domestic political risks in the United States may affect market confidence and push up gold demand.
The rise in gold on March 18 is in line with my thinking. Obviously, the US market was suppressed at 3028. After a short-term retracement, it further broke upward. It is expected to continue the upward trend at night and see the suppression of 3044.
The weekly and monthly lines are concerned about the upper track position, and even diverge upward under the impetus of market sentiment. The specific position cannot be determined because there is no reference point, but it is only necessary to follow the market trend to do it, and the transaction is relatively simple. From a technical perspective, the upper track of the weekly line is 3030, and the upper track of the monthly line is 3050. This is the position that needs attention. In addition, the previous two waves of rises have gone through 4 positive monthly K lines, and then closed with a negative correction.
Support level
$2994; $2982; $2950
Resistance level
$3025; $3050; $3080