Dxyforecast
Still looking to short DollarThe dollar is experiencing fundamental weakness due to its data, with yuan transactions surpassing it for the first time. The GDP was worse than anticipated, causing concerns of an impending recession. Today's core PCE data, a crucial inflation indicator, could potentially alter the trajectory of the dollar, therefore, be cautious.
From a technical standpoint, I am searching for a trend rejection.
DXY - U.S Dollar Index LongDXY is in the support zone that used to be a resistance level from January 2017 and March 2020. a resistance level for 3 years. If the 100 -102 support doesn't get broken we are now looking at our new support and the U.S Dollar index can give us another bullish scenario. The new resistance would be September 2022 High 114-115.
DXY mid to long term analysisLong term I am Bearish on DXY, with De-Dollarization happening in the world especially BRICS countries preparing to create a new currency to use for trade amongst them and 24 other nations joining them. So, we will see the dollar lose its value over the next few years.
But in the short to midterm (Few Months to a year) I am seeing a nice bottom form for DXY.
I have drawn two rounded curves in purple where I see rounded double bottom formations which in my experience are immensely powerful Market structure for explosive move to the upside a move to 109 is expected because of this structure.
I have also drawn two smaller Rounded bottoms in yellow and Red which I see playing out to the upside in the short-term A move to 104 is expected if these structures continue to develop.
PA is also reacting to the PRZ 1.414 of butterfly, if DXY comes down to play the red rounded bottom, we can see a strong move up from 1.618 extension of the butterfly as a Type 2 return on the harmonic.
We also have the 3 key EMAs (13 21 and 34) on daily start to curve to the upside, these are initial signs of Trend reversal. Right now, PA is above 21 and 13, but below 34, As long as 34 EMA is not broken through on Daily Time Frame 21 and 13 EMA act as weak support and 34 EMA will continue to act as resistance, and we will be in a down trend. Once the 34 EMA is claimed on Daily and held for few days, we get a confirmation for the uptrend and then 21 and 13 EMA will start to act as strong support along with 34 EMA.
With FOMC coming up, if the news is favorable for Dollar, we can break thorough 34 EMA and confirm the trend reversal.
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Bearish 3 Drive Pattern for DXYgreetings fellas, us dollar index in bearish 3 drive pattern and want to take sell side liquidity once again and reach to 99.84 zone.
btw, in the second drive we seen 3 drive in 4h timeframe, maybe in third drive we will seen this pattern again but daily timeframe.
after that i expect bullish spike candle to reach TVC:DXY 103.4.
DXYDXY is ready to BUY. there is important price for it and i think 102.00 is very important. if tonight the price will close upper than 102.00, monthly and weekly candles shape show us good signal, in daily and 4H first top line will break, and all the reasons show us powerful signal to BUY. It can change all of markets.
DXY #DXY $DXY Just Look at the respect to my ScribblesJust look at these reactions my scribbles are getting. These lines have not been moved or adjusted these are the same trend lines I gave you weeks ago.
If it isn't broke.
KISS ( Keep It Simple Stupid)
Everyone else telling you only about the old line and the breakout of it and or giving the new lines now. I gave you this as a second R line trend above the 1st one everyone was posting, AND most importantly i gave it to you weeks ago.
DXY: Event influence!Hello traders, I have some USD related information to share with you ♥
US Dollar's position as the primary global reserve currency is being challenged
The US Dollar's share of the global market has decreased from 71 percent to 59 percent over the last two decades and could shrink even further in the future. The primary victim in this scenario is the United States, as currency usage in global trade is a zero-sum game. Each time a Yuan, real, or Rupee is exchanged on the global market, a Dollar is not. If credible alternatives gain steam, the dominance of America in the global market will be compromised.
DXY- Great chances for a riseAfter the low back in February, 100.50 held strongly, and also yesterday, after a drop in that zone, bulls took control leaving a bullish engulfing on our daily chart.
At the time of writing the index is trading at 101.39 and there are good chances of a rise above 103.
I'm bullish as long as 100.50 is intact
DXY may have reversed!!Currency Pair : DXY
Possible direction : Bullish
Technical Analysis : Price just has opened with gap and slowly turning into a bullish market after forming a middle man in the previous session. From monthly price has just bounced from the monthly support zone.
Fundamental : Positive ADP Non-Farm Employment change data has given a strong boost on USD
Possible trade recommendation : Bearish as per chart sketch
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DXY Index Next Possible MovePair : DXY Index
Description :
Divergence
EXP Fiat as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame
Completed " 1234 " Impulsive Wave
Break of Structure
Symmetrical Triangle
Completed " ABC " Correction in Short Time Frame
Bullish Channel as Correction in STF
Rejection from Upper Trendline or Fibonacci Level ( 78.60% - 100% )
DXY - Tool to assess Risk on/ Risk off scenariosHi guys. Welcome to my TA analysis on the dollar index. ALot of talk has been going on about whether or not we are in a bull market for bitcoin and if equities will rally further or not. In order to assess or determine if its likely that we are, the dollar is used by many analysts to gauge at what the sentiment is, whether "RISK ON" or "RISK OFF". As such i also have come to analyze and use DXY as such a tool.
RISK ON = When dollar is decreasing in price, other assets tend to go up. ( Hence we hear people mention "oh, the dollar is inversely related to stocks, crypto)
RISK OFF = sentiment is scared to invest and people flock to the safety of cash/dollar, Increasing the value of the dollar and prices of other assets decrease in price
With that lets look into what i see in the charts for DXY.
This analysis is done on the 2 day timeframe.
I've zoomed out to include about 17 years of data.
So PRICE ACTION
As you can see its interacting with the Red line that is drawn on chart. This is the 200 Day Moving Average. If you look left at all the examples i put up, everytime price action goes down we are below this line for atleast 100 days to as long as couple of years. WE also decline between 2% to as much as 20%.
The 2 recent times, we were under it for 380 days and 488 days with price dropping further down. Ofcourse our current price action doesnt have to do this but because it occured previously it is not out of the question.
At the least expect sideways action, which is also not a bad thing for RISK ON mentality.
BUT as of now we have CONFIRMED below the 200 dma on the 2 day timeframe. I expect the dollar to drop more in the intermediate to longer term of atleast 3 months to a 1 year even. The longer the dollar stays below, the stronger RISK ON mentality gets. This would validate the recent Crypto uptrend and may push equities, housing and others up too.
To further support my thesis, check out the 2 indicators i put up
1. RSI - I believe we have further sell off on the RSI and im expecting it to do below the 20 level, as it did in the examples i circled with white. Also notice the white horizontal resistance line i drew. As long as we stay below here, it validates my thesis of dollar staying down. Im expecting atleast 1 touch point near or below the 20 level. RSI is a close indicator of price action, when it points down, price usually follows and vice versa.
2. ADX and DI - Ths tracks momentum. As highlighted red line is crossing up, indicating bearish momentum to pick up. When price action is below the 200 dma and a bearish cross occurs we usually go down in price.
CONCLUSION: With everything mentioned, in my opinion i believe DXY to go down further in price, it staying in a downtrend for atleast 3 months to 1 year. Supporting the idea that maybe we are in the beginning stages of a crypto bull market and we may see equities rally more.
Thanks for tuning in. Hope this helped. If you like the content, please BOOST, COMMENT and FOLLOW. Check out my other charts on DXY. If you liked what you read, i also do potential buy/sell analysis on stock/ cryptos.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Everything expressed in my posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading please do manage your risk and protect yourselves with stop losses.