Dxyforecast
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Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)Technical Analysis
Monthly Chart:
Since January 2023, the DXY has been moving within a range. The upper boundary of this range was marked by the 107.348 level, which has now been cleared. This breach of the previous high suggests that liquidity above the range has been taken, signaling the potential for a downside move. Historically, such liquidity grabs often precede significant reversals, aligning with the current bearish setup.
Daily Chart:
On the daily timeframe, the DXY displayed a sharp decline after taking out its last significant high. This aggressive sell-off has formed a strong bearish pattern, indicating a potential continuation to the downside. The presence of strong bearish momentum highlights sellers' dominance in the current market conditions, reinforcing the bearish outlook initiated by the liquidity grab on the monthly chart.
Price Targets:
Short-Term Target: A move toward 104.636 is expected as the DXY continues its bearish momentum, which aligns with immediate support and prior structural lows.
Medium-to-Long-Term Target: If the bearish trajectory persists, the DXY could reach the 101.917 level, which aligns with a significant support zone from previous price action. This target reflects the potential for extended downside in a broader bearish scenario.
Fundamental Analysis
Federal Reserve and Interest Rates:
Recent minutes from the Federal Reserve highlight concerns about continuing rate cuts due to the potential risks they pose to inflation. The Fed has signaled that further rate reductions would only be considered if both the labor market weakens and inflation continues to decline. However, these two factors are closely intertwined.
Labor Market Conditions:
Historically, the months of November and December exhibit strong employment trends due to holiday hiring. This seasonality reduces the likelihood of immediate rate cuts, as a robust labor market typically does not align with the conditions necessary for easing monetary policy.
Inflation Outlook:
For the Fed to proceed with aggressive rate cuts, inflation figures would need to remain stable or show further declines. If unemployment rises and inflation remains under control, the Fed may have room for another round of cuts. Such a scenario would support a long-term bearish outlook for the DXY, as lower interest rates reduce demand for the U.S. dollar.
Summary and Outlook
Technically, the DXY is positioned for further downside following the liquidity grab above the 107.348 level and the subsequent bearish pattern on the daily chart. Fundamentally, while seasonal strength in the labor market may delay immediate bearish moves, the broader macroeconomic context suggests that eventual rate cuts are likely.
Key factors to monitor include:
Unemployment data in the coming months.
Inflation trends to confirm stability or further declines.
Any changes in the Fed’s tone regarding rate policy.
Price Expectations:
In the short term, we could see the DXY reach 104.636, reflecting a retracement toward a key support zone.
In the medium to long term, the DXY is likely to target 101.917, aligning with major support from prior price structures and further confirming the bearish outlook.
If unemployment begins to rise and inflation remains under control, these targets become even more probable, reinforcing the alignment between technical and fundamental factors.
Dollar Currency Index DXY Predicts Massive Crypto Bull RunHello, Skyrexians!
In crypto trading and investment it's vital to not only analyze some particular assets, but also macro charts. We have already considered the Bitcoin Dominance chart to predict potential altseason in this article . Today we have even more important asset, the TVC:DXY , which reflects in which type of assets investors are about to be in. When crisis happens investors are scared, selling risky assets and buy dollar. In the worthy times investor are greedy to risky assets and dollar currency index decreases. Today we will try to explain why DXY is about to crush giving liquidity to risky assets like our favorite crypto.
Let's take a look at the monthly time frame. It looks like DXY has ended the super cycle of any degree and now is printing correction. Waves A and B are likely to be finished already in this correction. The most impulsive wave C is incoming soon. To measure the targets we can use the Fibonacci retracement for the entire Elliott Waves cycle. Area between 0.5 and 0.61 is going to be our target. That's why we are waiting DXY between 88 and 93.
Inside this area we plan to wait for the green dot on Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator which works great in the past. Important note here is that you have to disable MFI filter on this indicator to work correctly on DXY. As always, alerts from this indicator are automatically replicated on my accounts. You can find the information in our article on TradingView.
Best regards,
Skyrexio Team
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Unmasking DXY's Bullish Potential with Volume ProfileH ello,
The unusually high market activity around the 100.5 level indicated strong bullish accumulation. The yellow ellipses highlight the volume and price levels. You can see that volume decreases both above and below this key level. This accumulation is evident because the price broke out of a bullish consolidation pattern, as shown in the left yellow circle, reaching a high of 103.9, indicated by the yellow line. This is the current level, where you may notice exceptionally high market activity. As the price remains above the green demand zone, the red supply zone may be tested, as suggested by the volume profile.
Regards,
Ely
DXY ShortThis currency has been forming a descending flag, broke out of the structure and retested the higher high formed last week.
It has made a false break out (liquidity grab) and I anticipate that the price will build a bearish momentum to fill the second gap created by the previous week bullish impulse.
An analysis will follow using a shorter time frame.
DXY ShortBased on the previous analysis using a higher timeframe, I have analysed that we expect a bearish momentum from this trade.
Based on the 15 min timeframe, the price has retested and rejected the zone, forming an inverted hammer candlestick. I do anticipate that a bearish momentum is been formed.
Entry price at 106.9, SL at 107.2 and Target at 105.5
DXY, Is correction on the way ?Hello Traders, Hope you are doing great.
for upcoming days and for a short period of time, we'll probably see a downward correction to Specified level in TVC:DXY , we also have a Divergence on 4H that confirms our theory.
so with a proper trigger we can open a short position. We will also probably find better buy positions in FX:GBPUSD And FX:AUDUSD than the FX:EURUSD .
Trade safe and have a great weekend.
And finally tell me what do you think ? UP or DOWN ? leave your comment below this post.
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DXY Update and Levelsafter good impulse move to the upside there is certainty of price going into pullback mode
because
. price recently broken the trend line which was from weekly side so the next liquidity zone is supply from monthly which is 1% away and on other hand price can try to retest the fvg which nearby 0.5% below the current price (105.998) or the round figure 105 can act as support
my take - before going to 107 zone price should retrace and get some liquidity from fvg
Is a DXY Pullback on the Horizon? Key Price Action Signals Is a DXY Pullback on the Horizon? Key Price Action Signals to Keep an Eye On
👀👉 The DXY Dollar Index has shown robust bullish momentum recently—but is it overextended? A pullback at a major support level could offer a valuable entry opportunity. I’m watching this zone closely for a possible buy setup aligned with the key criteria covered in the video. In this analysis, we’ll explore essential price action signals to watch and discuss strategies for positioning in the next potential move. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice.* 📊✅
DXY bias new outlooklast 10 candle does not have any liquidity which seems that price is likely to bounce from 1st poi
but the candle from nov5 and nov6 will be important as it is bearish marbozu with nov6 candle could create bearish fvg that can give price another rejection zone to push the price to test poi 2
based on drawn poi
poi 1 = 103.220
and poi 2 = 102.630
we need see if price is rejected from this zone followed by dotted line which represents external liquidity to grab
and finally we have orange zone that is weekly bearish fvg once that is tested will follow with new idea
A Bullish Turn: Investors Embrace the DollarA Shift in Sentiment
In a surprising turn of events, hedge funds, asset managers, and other speculators have shifted their stance on the US dollar, moving into bullish positions in the week ending October 22nd. This significant shift, totaling approximately $9.2 billion in long dollar bets, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) compiled by Bloomberg, marks a dramatic departure from the previous week's net short position.
A $10.6 Billion Swing
This abrupt change in sentiment represents a substantial $10.6 billion swing from the previous week, when traders were actively betting against the greenback. The reasons behind this bullish pivot are multifaceted, primarily driven by a confluence of factors, including stronger-than-expected US economic data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets as the US election approaches.
A Recalibration of Fed Expectations
A series of positive economic reports released throughout October has forced a recalibration of previously dovish Federal Reserve expectations. The robust economic indicators have raised the possibility of a more hawkish monetary policy stance from the Fed, which could potentially lead to higher interest rates. Historically, a stronger US dollar has been correlated with higher interest rates, making the greenback an attractive investment for global investors.
Election-Year Uncertainty
As the US presidential election draws near, geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility tend to increase. In such times, investors often seek refuge in safe-haven assets like the US dollar. The dollar's perceived status as a reliable store of value, combined with the potential for increased market volatility, has likely contributed to the recent surge in demand for the currency.
Implications for the Global Economy
The shift towards a bullish dollar position has significant implications for the global economy. A stronger dollar can negatively impact emerging market economies that rely heavily on dollar-denominated debt. Additionally, it can make US exports more expensive, potentially hindering economic growth. However, for countries with strong economic fundamentals and current account surpluses, a stronger dollar can be beneficial.
A Cautious Outlook
While the recent bullish trend in the dollar is notable, it is essential to maintain a cautious outlook. The global economic landscape remains uncertain, and a variety of factors, including geopolitical events, trade tensions, and central bank policies, could influence the dollar's trajectory. As such, it is crucial for investors to carefully consider the risks and rewards associated with dollar-based investments.
In conclusion, the recent shift towards a bullish dollar position reflects a significant change in market sentiment. A combination of stronger-than-expected US economic data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets has driven investors to embrace the greenback. While the implications of this trend for the global economy are far-reaching, it is essential to remain vigilant and adapt to evolving market conditions.
Key Levels to Watch in the DXY: Preparing for Potential ReversalWaiting on a reaction a tad higher. TVC:DXY
Looking at the levels 103.5 > 102.2. From there, I'll see how it behaves.
If it moves above 103.6, I’ll cut the short, as 105.4 will come into play.
Just playing out two scenarios with the same premise: down before more up...
DXY Index at Critical Resistance: Possible Clues for USD Pairs👀👉 The US Dollar Index (DXY) is nearing a key resistance zone, repeatedly tested on both the monthly and weekly timeframes, which often signals a potential market reaction or rejection. While the US dollar has maintained a strong bullish trend, these factors suggest a possible near-term reversal, offering potential opportunities in both correlated and inversely correlated currency pairs. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
📊✅
USD Index at 104 Resistance: Strategies for the Next MoveIn early October, I wrote that the multiple attempts to break below the support level given by the beginning of the year price were likely false breaks.
I suggested that the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) was primed for a reversal to the upside, which could potentially push the price toward the 104 resistance level.
As anticipated, the USD Index reversed and touched this key resistance.
Looking ahead, a correction from this point seems probable, with the 102.50 zone being a possible target in the coming days.
My strategy is to look for buying opportunities in EUR/USD and AUD/USD.