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Dxyforecast

DXY- The chart show a lot of bottiming signsIf you read my analysis you know that I'm bullish USD and although so far the reversal keeps us waiting, my opinion remains the same. Looking at the Dxy chart we can see that since Monday USD is showing some life with yesterday being a very agitated and volatile day. Usually, big volatility is a sign of reversal, and yesterday's low could mark the bottom Technically all the candles since Monday are reversal ones so a test of 103.50 resistance, in the short term, is very probable. Anyway, I will remain bullish in the long run USD, and in my opinion, there is much more room for up than down. I'm looking for good points to sell EurUsd and GbpUsd
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
1
DXY to 160?I think you can see where I copy and pasted this line bar from. At the end of 1981 / beginning of 1982, the DXY crossed over the 100 mark for the first time, then retested and held it as support. The 100 level has served as rejection in 2016 and 2020. We blasted through it last year, and are now coming down to retest it. Will it hold? Or will it fall below, break down, and confirm as resistance again? If that happens, my idea is negated. But if the DXY holds this level as support, then I think higher is likely, especially due to the "mAcRoEcOnOmIc CoNdItIoNs" -- lol. Since this is just a line bar copy and paste of the inflation of the 1980's, the timeframe is not the point of this prediction, only the target area. It's highly possible we could approach that area much sooner than depicted here. There will also likely be resistance in the 120 area, if we reject and confirm from there, my idea is also negated. If we go above and retest and hold as support, then the 160 is even more likely. The DXY is also above the 20, 50, 100 and 200 MONTH moving averages. "Bullish" Cheers! None of this is financial advice. But it is fine and chill advice.
TVC:DXY
by phlezk
1
Plan A or Plan B on this index?Hello, my dear friends and fellow traders. What we are going to look at today is the US dollar index. When looking at the daily chart this is a good setup for the price of this index to go up. if we see if this index can be taken long position, according to the daily time scale in this index, it is at the lower side. Very dangerous one to take a long position. But it has the potential to go up. So, keep the trailing stop small in this. If you take it for a long time, there is a 1:2 RR chance of giving it. Also, it has a 1:8 chance of giving a good move to go up. However, due to the current opposition, there are chances to stop this rally. So, the first profit target in this should be 1:2. Then if you want you can keep 1:8 but it depends on the system. Till then wishing you a good luck on this strategy. See you in my next post. It is wise to follow your risk management before taking entry. I love to share my ideas. Feel free to revise the text and provide feedback. It makes it so personal and improve us in better ways. CAPITALCOM:DXY Thanks & regards, Alpha Trading Station Disclaimer: This view is for educational purpose only & any stock mentioned here should not be taken as a trading/investing advice. We may or may not have position in the stocks mentioned here. Please consult your financial advisor before investing. Because Price is the "King of Market".
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by AlphaTradingStation
Dollar Index (DXY) still in uptrendsAccording to the DXY market chart, the uptrend continues, as it has since 1981. According to the GDP growth data of 1980 to 1982. GDP was negative for six of the 12 quarters. The worst was Q2 1980 at -8.0%.24 Unemployment rose to 10.8% in November and December 1982. It was above 10% for 10 months. From 2020 to 2022, the GDP was negative for four of the eleven quarters. Q4 of 2022 is pending, but the overall GDP situation is the same; the rate hikes are higher to combat inflation. In 2020, unemployment during the COVID period was 14%, but overall after COVID, it was around 3.7%. The market structure of DXY says the recent decline of DXY is a market uptrend signal. The support level is from December 1981 and the resistance is the same as in August 1981.
TVC:DXY
by humairqureshi
2
Dxy- Reversal loomingAs I argued in the start of the year video, I expect a reversal from Usd pairs and a resumption to the long-term bearish trend (bullish DXY). In Dxy's case, I draw attention to the important support that the index is trading in and, as we can see, so far this zone held. Going further, as we can see from the posted chart, since mid-December, the index is trading in a range and we have a strong reversal 2 days ago. Confirmation of reversal comes once the price is breaking above the upper boundary of the range at 104.50 and, in such an instance we can see a medium-term rise to 109 important resistance zone. Sell pairs like EurUsd, GbpUsd, NzdUsd, and AudUsd can be a good trading strategy.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
2
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% DXY, 90% Cash. * DEATH CROSS WATCH . Final US Q3 GDP estimate was +3.2%, compared to a decline of -0.6% in Q2 , and was primarily led by upward revisions to exports, nonresidential fixed investments (IP and equipment) and consumer spending. The latest GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate was 3.7% on 10/23 , with the next estimate due on 01/03/23. Russia announced a ban of oil sales to any countries or companies abiding by the $60 price-cap imposed by the G-7 (+ Australia) . North Korea sent 5 reconnaissance drones into South Korea and SK failed to hit any of them in their defensive counter-assault . Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda expressed that the latest BOJ move to allow their 10-year bond yield to rise to 0.5% from 0.25% shouldn't be viewed as an "exit" from their ultra-loose monetary policy and that they maintain a 2% inflation target , although investors are now betting on a higher likelihood of a departure from negative interest rates come next April when Kuroda's second 5-year term comes to end. The Treasury General Account and Reverse Repos seemed to have found a short-term floor and are expected to continue rising, which poses a threat to the Fed balance sheet but a bullish catalyst for US Treasurys, and lesser so for DXY. A continually rising Fed funds rate which is expected to top out at 5.1%-5.2% at the moment also acts as a bearish catalyst for Risk-On markets and bullish for US Treasurys, and lesser so to DXY. A main reason why DXY has been going down recently is due to a bounce in EURUSD, JPYUSD and GBPUSD; along with inflation coming down and a terminal Fed funds rate being anticipated in 2023. Energy, US Equity Futures, DXY, Short-Term US Treasurys, VIX, HSI, N100, EURUSD, JPYUSD, GBPUSD and CNYUSD are up. US Equities, Cryptos, Long-Term US Treasurys, Metals, Agriculture and NI225 are down. Key Upcoming Dates: Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP Estimate 01/03; S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 01/03; FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 01/04; December US Employment Situation at 830am 01/06. * Price is currently trending sideways at ~$104 as it nears a retest of the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support for the first time since February 2022. The 50MA is currently trending down at $107 as it approaches a seemingly inevitable Death Cross if it is to cross below the 200MA at $106. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $103.85, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI continues to trend sideways as it tests 39.43 resistance for the ninth consecutive session. Stochastic remains bearish but is on the verge of crossing over bullish just below 86.26 resistance. MACD remains bullish and is currently testing -0.832 resistance with no sign of peak formation at the moment. ADX continues to trend sideways at ~31 for the tenth consecutive session as Price continues to trend in a tight range for the same amount of time as it forms a Symmetrical Triangle, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to breakout here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$108 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $105.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY going to perform classic chart pattern and correction I think it is time for DXY to perform another top and confirm it’s double top for a mid term correction, if It falls more than it supply area around 89 then we should see more falling down. But according to overall fundamentals and technical analysis it is not something that we would like to see. Anyway, I think another bull move to 111 is necessary and maybe a bit more than last high (around 114) to face divergence in RSI and then start its falling down correction for more than 4 to 6 months.
TVC:DXYLong
by AtareumFX
DXY- Reversal underway?Since the 115 top at the end of September, the US Dollar index dropped hard with a more than 10% decline from the top to the recent 104 zone bottom. However, the last month's drop from 108 top is contained in a falling wedge which is a warning of reversal. Considering the long-term bullish trend for Usd and 104 very strong support on longer time frames I expect a reversal soon. 108 could be the bull's target with negation in case of a new low. Buy dips slightly above 104 could also have a more than 1:3 R: R for medium-term traders.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
4
The market is still trying to avoid risk?Introduction : - As you know, the $DXY is the index representing the strength of the dollar against a lot of other currencies. - Often used as a representation of capital flows, from RISK ON to RISK OFF, and vice versa. - With the economic conjectures of the moment, the rise in rates, it is normal to see the DXY grow. On the other hand, it has been retracing for some time, which has allowed the markets to breathe a little. Point of view: - The DXY is moving in the range (colored channel), but it rose quickly and needed to breathe, in this zone of action, the direction taken will have an effect on the markets for a few months. - The chart stumbles on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the last movement, so we could have had time to breathe to look for a new peak (materialized by the drawing in red). - Otherwise, see the DXY react slightly on this level and fall to find the bottom of the channel. (Materialized by the green drawing) - The RSI has fallen significantly, after having printed a Divergence Bear on us, and landed around 37.5 Conclusion : - It is important to have both plans in mind, so as not to be taken aback on the market, but only our reactivity thanks to alerts can protect us from risk. - Indeed, only economic announcements, geopolitics, or choices of large institutions can influence this index, so I think that anticipating its movement is not really possible. - But on the contrary, delimiting areas or scenarios as here, with alerts, allows you not to suffer the vagaries of the market and to know how to intervene. - I think that the direction of the DXY is very much to watch on its levels and these more than uncertain times. Voilà une vision plus globale : (It's a Fibonacci retracement, on the last move) Thanks ! Don't hesitate to Follow, putting on your big rocket is always nice, and comment to tell me what you think!
TVC:DXY
by Oudamska
DXY Daily TA Neutral BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% DXY, 60% Cash. * FOMC WATCH . US November CPI was estimated to come in at 0.3% but instead came in at 0.1% , compared to October's 0.4% it's fair to say that it eased a bit. Meanwhile Core CPI rose 0.2% in November compared to 0.3% in October. The last FOMC rate hike is expected to be announced tomorrow, though there is still a chance for another 75bps rate hike, the majority of speculators are anticipating 50bps. If they go with 50bps, it's reasonable to expect volatility tomorrow followed by further downside to DXY; however, if they go with 75bps, DXY should see a bit of a reversal in the short/medium-term. In a surprising move which is likely due to national security interests, China banned exports of their Loongson military grade processors to Russia ; Russia had apparently been testing them for a while as opposed to Intel and AMD processors due to Western sanctions. The USA is preparing to send their Patriot Air Defense system to Ukraine in response to Russia continuing to bombard key energy infrastructure as Ukraine approaches their coldest parts of winter. DXY, Cryptos, US Equities, US Equity Futures, JPYUSD, HSI, NI225, N100 and Short-Term US Treasurys are up. While Commodities, GBPUSD, EURUSD, CNYUSD, Long-Term US Treasurys and VIX are down. Key Upcoming Dates: Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate 12/15; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price is currently attempting to bounce here at $104.06 before retesting the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support for the first time since February 2022. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $105.27, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 34, the next resistance is at 39.43 and the next support at 23.34. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 29.40 support. MACD remains bullish and is on the verge of crossing over bearish as it trends sideways at -1.21 support; if it breaks below this support level it would be a bearish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 33 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$105.80 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $105.80.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% DXY, 95% Cash. * Oil tankers are reportedly beginning to jam up the Black Sea with 28 tankers waiting to be checked for having proper insurance by Turkish officials . This will likely put upward pressure on the price of oil in the near/medium term. Investors appear to be anticipating a 50bps rate hike by the FOMC on 12/14, which will be their last rate hike announcement until February 1st 2023. Interestingly, investors appear to be equating a slowing in rate hike increases with a lowering of the terminal FFR, which is unlikely to be true; Federal Reserve staff/member consensus is currently projecting a 5%-5.5% terminal funds rate to be achieved by mid-2023, the FFR is currently at 3.75%-4%. So going forward, 50bps on 12/14/22 brings it to 4.25%-4.5%, another hypothetical 50bps on 02/01/23 would bring it to 4.75%-5%, another hypothetical 25bps on 03/16/23 would bring it to 5%-5.25% and then a last hypothetical 25bps on 05/04/23 would bring it to 5.25%-5.5%. This all assumes that Russia doesn't continue to escalate the war and that supply chains reach a newfound stability/order; a somewhat unrealistic assumption at the moment. US Equities, US Equity Futures, US Treasurys, Cryptos, Metals, Natural Gas, Agriculture, EURUSD, GBPUSD, CNYUSD, HSI, N100 are up. DXY, VIX, JPYUSD, NI225 and Oil are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US November PPI 830am EST 12/09; US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price is currently trending down at $104.80 after being rejected by the 200MA at ~$105.80 as resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at ~$105.80, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 36 after being rejected by 39 resistance for the third time since 11/21/22, the next support (minor) is at 23.34. Stochastic remains bullish and is on the verge of crossing over bearish as it trends down at 58 after getting rejected by 67 resistance, if it falls below 56 it would be a bearish crossover; the next support is at 45.65. MACD remains barely bullish for a second consecutive day as it trends sideways just below -1.21 support. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 31 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here and reestablish support at the 200MA (~$105.80) , the next likely target is a retest of $108 resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from May 2021 as support for the first time since February 2022 which would coincide with $103 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $105.80 .
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy