Dxyforecast
DXY MARKET FORCASTSince the beginning of the week, the DXY has been giving us a correction after last week's impulse move. The market has already broken above the correction area, which was a downtrend in the smaller timeframes. Therefore, I'm expecting the DXY to continue pushing up further, as it has been respecting the setups from my previous analysis. This means the DXY will likely continue rising, and on the other side, we'll be looking for sell opportunities in the gold market and dollar pairs.
DXY MARKET FORCAST ON MONDAYOn the 1-hour time frame, the DXY is ranging between 105.505 and 105.774. If the market breaks below 105.505, we anticipate buying opportunities in the gold market. Conversely, if it breaks above 105.774, we expect selling opportunities in the gold market. This is my current perspective on the DXY. From these key levels, the market has been respecting. Last week, the DXY formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, followed by an impulsive move. Currently, it might be forming a correction or a bullish flag. We will wait to see which direction it breaks before pursuing opportunities in the gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD markets.
DXY Bullish rallies from 105.200 or 104.400The bias for the dollar is to continue its bullish trend. We have seen a change of character on the higher time frame followed by a break of structure, confirming the upward movement. There are also equal highs above the current price that need to be swept.
Due to recent bullish momentum driven by news, the price may be exhausted. At the start of the week, we might see a drop in price as it mitigates a demand zone. Once the price taps into one of these marked demand zones, I expect a bullish reaction.
P.S. Once the price moves up, it may react to the 8-hour supply zone, causing a temporary sell-off. However, I won’t be surprised if this zone gets violated due to the liquidity pool sitting above it.
DXY The Fake Dance- One of the most important barometers for global currencies and markets in the world.
- Most of the time DXY is a well used machine to supress markets (forex, stocks, cryptos, etc..)
- When they don't start the printing machine, DXY keeps is strength.
- When they start to print DXY starts to dip and markets boom up.
- it's really basic and based on "BRRR Machine".
- i had a hard time to decrypt this fake peace of resilience.
- actually there's none visible divergences on the 1M or 3M Timeframes.
- So i decided to push my analysis to 6M Timeframe and noticed few things :
- You can notice that from 2008 ( Post crises ), DXY was in a perma bullish trend.
- So now check MACD and will notice this fake move on January 2021 ( in graph the red ? )
- MACD was about to cross down, columns smaller and smaller, then a Pump from nowhere lol.
- i rarely saw that in my trading life on a 6M Timeframe.
- So to understand more this trend, i used ADX (Average Directional Index)
- ADX is used to determine when the price is trending strongly.
- In many cases, it is the ultimate trend indicator.
- So if you look well ADX columns, you will notice that a strong divergence is on the way.
- First check the Yellow Doted Line in July 2022 when DXY reached 115ish and look the size of the green columns.
- Now check today (red doted Line), and look again the ADX green columns is higher, but DXY diped to 105ish.
- So like always, i can be wrong, but i bet on a fast DXY dip soon or later.
- it's possible to fake pumps, but it's harder to fake traders.
Happy Tr4Ding !
DXY and USD Pairs Technical Analysis and Trade Idea In this video, we provide a succinct analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and its potential impact on USD pairs. Following recent bullish momentum, the DXY has become overextended, reaching resistance levels. Currently, we observe a significant retracement toward support. Our main goal is to identify an optimal buy entry point within this critical support zone, assuming price action aligns with our analysis from the video.
As always, the video offers valuable insights into trade entry points, trend analysis, market structure, and price action. It’s essential to recognize that this content serves an educational purpose and should not be construed as financial advice." 📈🚀📊
DXYThe dollar price looks bullish on the daily timeframe, moving within a symmetrical triangle and ascending channel, and following the Elliott Wave 12345 pattern. Currently, the price is at a resistance-turned-support level; waiting for a bullish rejection here could signal an upward move. This would positively impact XXXUSD pairs and negatively affect USDXXX pairs.
DXY hits major resistanceDXY: The USD index this week is touching the susceptible help area round 104.60, so withinside the brief term, the USD is anticipated to get better barely today. Most of the marketplace will now no longer have lots fluctuation because of the financial institution holiday. Ace can refer to shopping for with USD
DXY - USD Sinking To A Bottomless Pit The Fundamentals
When I think of U.S. Federal Reserve and U.S. Government infinite debt ceiling, the title of the movie, "The Gods Must Be Crazy" comes to my mind. What they are doing has only one end result, the destruction of the U.S. $ and its economy.
There are new sheriffs in town (BRICS - Economic Sheriffs, Russia, China, Iran - Military Sheriffs), the U.S. no longer has military nor economic hegemony, this is what's behind the power of the U.S. $, imagine being powerless to protect their interests in the red sea, where there's a new sheriff in town called Iran camouflaged as Houthis :D or being kicked out of Niger?
Some genius decades ago, had the bright idea that backing the U.S. $ by military power was a great idea, moving factories to China for the sake of increasing profits was also a bright idea, and at the same time antagonizing China.
The Technical Analysis
Counting the waves, looks like we've completed wave B of wave 5 which means wave C could take the USD below 92. Coincidently that's close to 0.5 and 0.618 Fibs. Wave 1 and 2 of wave C looks completed now brace for impact!
Mayday! Mayday!
The Bullish Scenario
Wave B of wave 5 could be an extended wave and take the USD all ze vay to 119 and crash afterwards.
DXY observations (short term bearish trend)DOLLAR OBSERVATIONS
As price continues its downward trajectory, it has shifted its trend to the downside, leaving behind clear supply zones. One of these zones was previously identified and respected as per last week's forecast. I anticipate this short-term bearish trend to persist until it reaches the 104.200 mark. At that point, I expect a bullish reversal to occur, especially considering the presence of an imbalance just above this level.
Additionally, with price currently in a downtrend, my bullish biases on GU and EU align accordingly. This correlation is logical until either of them reaches the supply zone on the daily chart, which should coincide with the same daily demand zone marked out on DXY.
#GBPUSD: 600+ Pips Selling Opportunity! FX:GBPUSD price fail due to DXY remain extremely bullish, though we thought price would rise up in our 1 hour timeframe and then continue dropping. However, DXY bullishness momentum was extreme and it kept on dropping. We might see some correction where price reaching around price region and then drop from that area.
If you like our work then please do like and comment the idea. Appreciate your support and good luck trading.
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Shorting DXY: A Calculated Gamble on a Weaker DollarShorting DXY: A Calculated Gamble on a Weaker Dollar, But Beware the Dragons
The DXY, or US Dollar Index, measures the greenback's strength against a basket of major currencies. With rising global tensions and a potential shift in global power dynamics, the question lingers: is it time to short the DXY, betting on a weakening dollar? Let's explore the arguments for and against this strategy.
The Case for Shorting DXY: A Multi-Pronged Approach
• America's Shrinking Lead: The US, while still a dominant economic force, faces challenges. Its manufacturing base has shrunk, its national debt is ballooning, and infrastructure crumbles. These factors could erode confidence in the dollar's long-term stability.
• The Rise of the Rest: China's economic power is undeniable. The yuan's internationalization efforts are gaining traction, potentially chipping away at the dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency. Other economies like the Eurozone are also maturing, offering alternatives.
• A Concerted Effort: Imagine a scenario where the US's major allies, concerned about American dominance, decide to weaken the dollar. This could involve measures like central banks diversifying reserves away from the US or pegging their currencies to a basket that excludes the dollar. While a hypothetical scenario, it can't be entirely dismissed.
China: The Dragon in the Room
China's displeasure with a weakening dollar is a significant risk factor. A weaker dollar makes Chinese exports more expensive, hindering their economic growth. China holds a significant amount of US Treasuries, and a devalued dollar would erode the value of those holdings. This could lead to China dumping US Treasuries, further weakening the dollar in a vicious cycle.
Beyond China: Other Considerations
• US Response: The US Federal Reserve has tools at its disposal to counter a weakening dollar. Raising interest rates, for instance, could entice investors back to the dollar for higher yields.
• Global Instability: A devalued dollar could create global economic turmoil as countries scramble to adjust exchange rates and inflation spikes. This could be particularly damaging for developing economies.
• Unpredictable Markets: Shorting any asset is inherently risky, and the currency market is especially volatile. Unforeseen events can drastically alter currency valuations.
So, Should You Short DXY?
The decision to short DXY depends on your risk tolerance and investment goals. Here's a breakdown:
• For Aggressive Investors: If you believe in a long-term decline of the US dollar and have a high tolerance for risk, shorting DXY could be a potential strategy. However, careful risk management is crucial.
• For Cautious Investors: The potential consequences of a weakening dollar, particularly China's reaction, are significant. It might be wiser to stick with less volatile investments or consider options strategies that limit your downside risk.
Alternative Strategies
Instead of shorting DXY directly, consider these alternatives:
• Invest in a Diversified Currency Basket: Spread your risk by investing in a basket of major currencies, potentially benefiting from a weakening dollar while mitigating some of the risk.
• Look to Emerging Markets: If you believe in the rise of other economic powers, consider investing in their currencies or stocks poised to benefit from a weaker dollar.
The Final Bite
The future of the US dollar is uncertain. A combination of factors could lead to its decline. However, the potential consequences, particularly China's response, are significant risks to consider. Carefully weigh the arguments before taking a short position on DXY. Remember, diversification and a measured approach are key in navigating the ever-fluctuating currency markets.
DXY (dollar index) weekly ideaCurrently, the dollar trend indicates a bearish direction, suggesting that pairs I typically trade, such as GU, EU, and gold, may rise. Presently, I anticipate a retracement to occur towards an 8-hour supply zone I've identified, facilitating the continuation of the bearish trajectory.
This ideally aligns with my strategy until the price drops to around the 104 level, potentially sparking a bullish rally upwards. At that point, I'll need to seek selling opportunities for my other pairs. The dollar's price action appears clear, and there are still imbalances below that require fulfilment.
Have a great trading week guys!
USD INDEX (DXY) ... The BULLISH Bias Is Playing OutNotes are in the screenshot.
Please refer to the link for the Sunday Weekly Forecast.
FOMC tomorrow. Price could become very volatile and unpredictable. I do not recommend holding or entering trades before the news.
We'll see how it goes tomorrow. I would like to see that old high swept between tomorrow and Friday.
This would mean the bears would be all over the indices.
Trade safely.