Potential bulllish reveresal?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot, which aligns with the Fibonacci confluence and could reverse to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 97.08
1st Support: 96.44
1st Resistance: 98.10
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Dxyindex
Free fall on DXY?With gap open at 97.66 level before the monthly close price has broken the monthly support and started to drop. We may see the price to drop to long term monthly support at 96.622 or further below to 95.66 as with the increased bearish pressure we may see the price to continue to drop to this longer term support level.
As with upcoming USD news we may see the price to move to this level with high probability bearish trend.
Gold breaks down and moves downward, focus on the 3300 markWith the official ceasefire between Iran and Israel, although there are some repeated frictions in the middle, under Trump's mediation, both parties are relatively tolerant. It seems that the war has been declared over. Gold has also fallen sharply. In the early trading, it fell sharply to around 3333 and stabilized. After rebounding to around 3357, it fell again under pressure. During the European trading session, it broke the low and continued. It repeated around 3317/8 and fell again under pressure around 3332. This position has become the key pressure point for the current top and bottom conversion. In the evening, the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was also relatively cautious. He believed that inflation had declined, but it was still far from the 2% target. He tended to adjust interest rates after inflation achieved the target. Therefore, the double pressure caused gold to rebound weakly and repeatedly run weakly. At present, the lowest level reached 3304, which is one step away from the 3300 mark. Judging from the current trend, the overall weak pattern continues. In the evening, relying on the 3300 mark, try a long order for the last time, and then do a good job of continuing defense after the break.
6/24 Gold Evening Reference Ideas
Gold is long near 3303/05, defend 3298, target 3320/3330, short at 3298, defend 3305, target near 3276, short at 3330, defend 3337, watch 3316/08
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 98.59
1st Support: 97.69
1st Resistance: 99.25
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
6.24 Gold resistance strengthens + kinetic energy exhaustionGold prices have fallen under pressure near $3,380 several times, and this area gathers three technical resistances:
1. The daily Bollinger band middle track 3,375 and the upper track 3,450 form a suppression.
2. The previous high of $3,400 plus the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level constitutes a concentrated selling pressure area.
3. The previous high of $3,451 failed to break through effectively, forming a bearish structure with the second highest point moving down.
Risk of breaking the shock range: Gold continues to trade sideways in the 3,300-3,450 range, but the K-line continues to close in a small real body alternating yin and yang pattern, indicating that the long and short momentum is exhausted. If it falls below 3,350 , a technical sell-off will be triggered, with the target pointing to 3,300-3,330!
SELL: 3,388\3,393 Stop loss: 3,398
Target: 3,360
Profit point: 30
6.23 Gold Short-term Technical GuidanceThe current price is in the double-line interval of 3350-3375 on the hourly chart. Please note that the four-hour lifeline 3368 is also the resistance point determined by the last rebound in the Asian session.
The Asian session fell under pressure and returned to the sweeping range. It was treated as a sweep. The European session was able to hold the 3350 mark. Look up to find the 3368 area, followed by 3375 and 3385-3388.
If the European session falls below and closes below 3350, the short-selling forces are dominant. The four-hour lifeline 3368 is used as suppression. Look down to find 3333-3331, followed by 3320-3315
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🎯 Wait for price to break above Resistance @ 99.000 and candle to close ✅
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💡 Currently seeing bullish momentum in the DXY
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DXY Bullish Reversal & Cup Formation The DXY (US Dollar Index) is exhibiting a strong bullish reversal pattern, with multiple technical signals suggesting upward momentum:
🔍 Technical Analysis Summary:
✅ Support Holding Strong:
Price has respected the horizontal support zone around 98.00–98.50 on multiple occasions (highlighted by orange circles and green arrows), forming a solid base.
✅ Breakout from Downtrend:
A clear breakout above two descending trendlines (black and blue) indicates a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment.
✅ Cup Pattern Formation ☕:
A textbook Cup pattern is visible, where price formed a rounded bottom — a bullish continuation formation. The handle is minor and price has broken above the neckline (around 99.00), signaling a potential continuation toward the target.
✅ Bullish Target 🎯:
Based on the cup pattern and prior resistance, the projected target is around 101.846, aligning with previous major resistance.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone: 98.00 – 98.50
Immediate Resistance: 99.50 – 100.00
Major Resistance/Target: 101.846
🧭 Outlook:
As long as the price remains above the 98.50 zone, the bullish scenario remains intact. The cup breakout indicates strong buying pressure, and momentum could push DXY toward the 101.846 target in the coming sessions.
The DXY eince 1979 and Rate Rises / Cuts & the Crucial point NOW
What i want to draw your attention now, more than anything is simplay that DXY PA is on the line of Support created in the 2008 Crash
Thisis Crucial as if it drops belwo, that is the $ on the international stage loosing the strongest line of support it has ever had
If we look at the stage now, you will also see that the DXY was loosing traction BEFORE the FED began cutting Rates.
This is due to many things on the internationa stage, Like BRICS gaining momentum.
If we look closer, at the weekly chart since around 2017
We can see how the DXY has been Ranging, with a Few Peaks and Drops, the deepest being in 2021, just before the Bitcoin ATH that year.
It bounced well and hit a Peak in late 2022, when Bitcoin was in its Deep Bear.
DXY has ranged ever since j a tight range...
Untill this year
And now, we find DXY on that line of support once moew, Bitcoin maybe heading to a New ATH
But this time we have the serious threat of Global Mayhem
So, the thing to watch here, Like a HAWK, is if DXY can hold this line of support.
Can the $ regain international support and bounce OR will it Fall through this line of support ?
Or Range on it as in 2021
I am not going to pretend to know the answer but I certainly recommend we all pay attention to this- This could take a while................
DXY US DOLLAR INDEXAs we can see on the chart, there’s a clear pattern emerging. The current movement of the index closely resembles the price action we saw between April 2015 and August 2018.
Assuming this fractal continues to play out, we could see more sideways movement until the end of the year — before a potential trend reversal kicks in.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.48
1st Support: 97.62
1st Resistance: 99.47
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.48
1st Support: 98.09
1st Resistance: 99.25
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 98.89
1st Support: 98.29
1st Resistance: 99.60
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?USD Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 97.81
1st Support: 97.19
1st Resistance: 98.69
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Could the DXY reverse from here?The price is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 97.71
1st Support: 94.66
1st Resistance: 101.87
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Index/US) Bearish trend analysis Read The caption)SMC trading point update
Technical analysis of U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 30-minute timeframe, with the price respecting a clear downtrend and repeatedly rejecting a resistance zone near the 200 EMA.
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Analysis Breakdown
Key Technical Elements:
1. Downtrend Structure:
The price remains within a descending channel.
Multiple lower highs and lower lows signal sustained bearish pressure.
2. Resistance Zone:
Highlighted near 98.490–98.495, aligned with the EMA 200.
Multiple rejections from this level (indicated by red arrows), confirming strong supply.
3. EMA 200 (98.490):
Acts as dynamic resistance.
Price is below it, reinforcing the bearish bias.
4. Projected Move:
Bearish price path targets the 97.189 level (target point).
A measured move of approximately -1.30% is illustrated.
5. RSI (14):
RSI currently at 46.27, below the neutral 50 mark.
This confirms bearish momentum without being oversold, leaving room for further downside.
---
Bearish Thesis:
Repeated failure to break above key resistance + downward channel + RSI weakness suggests a continuation to the downside.
Short-term consolidation expected before breakdown continuation.
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Trade Idea Concept:
Entry: Sell on a minor pullback near resistance (~98.300–98.490), or breakdown below the recent minor support.
Target: 97.189 zone.
Stop Loss: Above 98.500 or EMA 200 to invalidate the bearish setup.
Mr SMC Trading point
Risks to Watch:
A break and strong close above 98.500 would invalidate the bearish structure and could initiate a trend reversal.
Economic events (noted by calendar icons) may trigger volatility – ideal to monitor closely around those times.
plesse support boost 🚀 this analysis)
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Bearish Setup – Supply Zone Rejection & 🔹 Trend Overview
📊 Overall Trend: Bearish (Downtrend)
📉 Price is forming lower highs and lower lows within a descending channel.
🔻 Recently bounced off a support zone, now heading toward a potential pullback.
🔵 Supply Zone (Resistance Area)
📍 Zone Range: 100.049 – 100.601
🧱 Acts as a resistance block where sellers might step in.
📏 Confluent with EMA 70 at 100.178, strengthening its validity.
🔸 Trade Setup – Short Position
🟠 ENTRY POINT: 100.088
❌ STOP LOSS: 100.587 – 100.595 (Just above supply zone)
🎯 TARGET: 98.000 (With intermediate support levels)
📌 Support Levels
🔹 98.112 – First minor support
🔹 98.106 – Close-range confirmation
🔹 97.885 – Additional support zone
🟦 Main Target: 98.000
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
🟧 Small risk above supply zone
🟩 Large reward to downside = Favorable R:R
📌 Summary
📈 Expecting a pullback into supply zone.
🧨 Look for bearish confirmation around 100.088.
🎯 Target the downside at 98.000 for profit.
DXY ready for free fall?DXY at 99.39 strong liquidity grab then rejected back to the support level then following a head and shoulder, price completely has broker out of the support with CPI, it has finally managed break out of consolidation.
As the impulse has volume, we may see further drop to the monthly support 97.93 and may potentially break below as there is FVG which may slide the price further down.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly 2025Summary:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected down to the key 38.60% Fibonacci retracement zone and is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, bolstered by a clear hidden bullish divergence on the MACD. This may signal a renewed rally toward key upside targets, especially if the 93.3–99.9 support Zone holds.
Chart Context:
Current Price: 98.864
Key Fib Support: 38.60% @ 99.906, 48.60% @ 93.310, 61.80% @ 87.476
Support Zone: 93.3–99.9 USD
Hidden Bullish Divergence: Observed both in 2021 and now again in 2025 on the MACD
Trendline Support: Long-term ascending trendline holding since 2011
Fib Extension Targets (Trend-Based):
TP1: 115.000
TP2: 120.000
TP3: 126.666
Key Technical Observations:
Fibonacci Confluence: DXY is bouncing from a strong Fib cluster between 93.310 and 99.906, historically acting as a reversal zone.
Hidden Bullish Divergence: Suggests potential upside despite price weakness.
Downtrend Retest: Price may revisit 93.3–87.4 before confirming full reversal.
Breakout Pathway: Green dashed arrows outline the likely recovery trajectory toward 114–126 range.
Indicators:
MACD: Showing hidden bullish divergence and potential signal crossover.
Trendline Support: Holding intact from 2021 low.
Fib Levels: Used for retracement and trend-based extension.
Fundamental Context:
Interest Rate Outlook: If U.S. inflation remains controlled and Fed signals future hikes or sustained high rates, DXY strength may persist.
Global Liquidity & Recession Risk: If risk aversion returns, the dollar may rise as a safe haven.
Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts, trade tensions, or BRICS dedollarization efforts may create volatility.
Our Recent research suggests the Fed may maintain higher-for-longer rates due to resilient labor markets and sticky core inflation. This supports bullish USD bias unless macro shifts rapidly.
Why DXY Could Continue Strengthening:
Robust U.S. economic performance & monetary policy divergence
U.S. GDP growth (~2.7% in 2024) outpaces developed peers (~1.7%), supporting stronger USD
The Fed maintains restrictive rates (4.25–4.50%), while the ECB pivots to easing, widening the policy and yield gap .
Inflation resilience and Fed hawkishness
Labor markets remain tight, keeping inflation “sticky” and delaying expected rate cuts; market-implied cuts for 2025 have been pushed into 2026
Fed officials (e.g. Kugler) emphasize ongoing tariff-driven inflation, suggesting rates will stay elevated.
Safe-haven and yield-seeking capital flows
With global risks, capital favors USD-denominated assets for yield and stability
Why the Dollar Might Face Headwinds
Fiscal expansion & trade uncertainty
Ballooning U.S. deficits (~$3.3 trn new debt) and erratic tariff policy undermine confidence in USD
Wall Street’s consensus bearish position.
Major banks largely expect a weaker dollar through 2025–26. However, this crowded bearish sentiment poses a risk of a sharp rebound if data surprises occur
barons
Tariff policy risks
Trump's new tariffs could dampen dollar demand—yet if perceived as fiscal stimulus, they could unexpectedly buoy the USD .
Synthesis for Our Biases
A bullish DXY thesis is well-supported by:
Economic and policy divergence (U.S. growth + Fed vs. peers).
Hawkish Fed commentary and sticky inflation.
Safe-haven capital inflows.
Conversely, risks include:
Deteriorating fiscal/trade dynamics.
Potential Fed pivot once inflation shows clear decline.
A consensus that could trigger a short squeeze or reversal if overstretched.
Philosophical / Narrative View:
The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. Periodic dips often act as strategic re-accumulation phases for institutional capital—especially during global macro uncertainty. A return toward 120+ reflects this persistent demand for USD liquidity and safety.
Bias & Strategy Implication:
1. Primary Bias: Bullish, contingent on support at 93.3–99.9 holding.
2. Risk Scenario: Breakdown below 93.3 invalidates bullish thesis and targets 87.4–80 zones.
Impact on Crypto & Gold and its Correlation and Scenarios:
Historically, DXY has had an inverse correlation to both gold and crypto markets. When DXY strengthens, liquidity tends to rotate into dollar-denominated assets and away from risk-on trades like crypto and gold. When DXY weakens, it typically acts as a tailwind for both Bitcoin and gold.
Correlation Coefficients:
DXY vs. Gold: ≈ -0.85 (strong inverse correlation)
DXY vs. TOTAL (crypto market cap): ≈ -0.72 (moderate to strong inverse correlation)
Scenario 1: DXY Rallies toward 115–126 then, Expect gold to correct or stagnate, especially if yields rise. Crypto likely to pull back or remain suppressed unless specific bullish catalysts emerge (e.g., ETF flows or tech adoption).
Scenario 2: DXY ranges between 93–105 then Gold may consolidate or form bullish continuation patterns. Then Crypto may see selective strength, particularly altcoins, if BTC.D declines.
Scenario 3: DXY falls below 93 and toward 87 Then Gold likely to rally, possibly challenging all-time highs. Crypto could enter a major bull run, led by Bitcoin and followed by altcoins, fueled by increased liquidity and lower opportunity cost of holding non-USD assets.
Understanding DXY’s direction provides valuable insight for portfolio positioning in macro-sensitive assets.
Notes & Disclaimers:
This analysis reflects a technical interpretation of the DXY index and is not financial advice. Market conditions may change based on unexpected macroeconomic events, Fed policy, or geopolitical developments.