3.5 Technical Analysis of Short-term Gold OperationsThe non-farm payrolls (NFP) and consumer price index (CPI) data to be released this week will be the focus of market attention. If the data is strong, especially the inflation data is higher than expected, the market may reduce the bet on the Fed to cut interest rates. The market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, an increase from the 44 basis points expected last week.
Gold Technical Analysis - Daily Chart
From the daily chart, gold received support near $2,832 last Friday and rebounded to $2,900 driven by tariff concerns. However, from this time frame, market information is limited, so it is necessary to further zoom in on the analysis period to get more details.
Dxyindex
DXY will go first to 95 and then 86.Hi, another dollar index DXY chart today.
You can make many predictions about how the world will be in the future, I have all just cycles + structures and charts.
At this point, that opinion may not be in line with those policy statements by world leaders. But we're not here to discuss politics.
Best regards EXCAVO
WTI , road map on high time frame
"Hello traders, focusing on WTI on high time frames, this analysis is based on the liquidity concept. Observing the chart, the price has surpassed the $69 level, which was significant for institutional orders. Consequently, I anticipate a decline towards lower prices. In my view, the next potential level could be around $64."
If you have any specific questions or require further assistance with your message, feel free to let me know!
DXY, About to rally upwardHello guys,
A short quick update on dollar index, we are going to see a temporary upward rally in the dollar index, I am just posting the low hanging fruit target which is very high probability to achieve. and we will defiantly see the momentum changing from bearish to bullish.
NFP protocol: Keep the risk low
Eur/Usd (Mar/04) Weekly biasHello everyone...
as you can see 1.05 to 1.054 is major resistance and if you go to monthly-weekly chart you can see that + weekly 21 ema + D 100 ema-ma
.............
but i think price can go above that area...
Monthly Open above Monthly pivot also right now price is above weekly pivot and euro attacked this area so many times...
( but if price can't close above 1.054 is bad for euro )
.......................................................
( This is an idea and entry-tp-sl placed for my own trade , you can change entry-tp-sl depends on your risk management )
DXY on high time frame
"Hello traders, focusing on DXY on high time frames, as per my previous analysis, the price has shifted towards a bearish direction. The price has reached the 110 zone, and candle formations are indicating a downtrend. I anticipate further pullback towards the 108 zone and potentially lower prices thereafter."
If you have any specific questions or need further assistance with your message, feel free to let me know!
Eur/Usd Mar/05 Daily biasHello eveyone.
i closed all my longs.last 2 days was great ( check my posts )
price is up almost 3% this week.price above cpr weekly 3rd res . so in this situation i think we will see a pullback.
i'm using tight stop loss.( today ADP...be carefull )
..............................
( This is an idea and entry-tp-sl placed for my own trade , you can change entry-tp-sl depends on your risk management )
DxyThis is a technical analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on a 2-hour timeframe. The chart indicates a bearish outlook, with price currently at 105.166 and showing signs of a downtrend.
Key Observations:
1. Downtrend Confirmation:
The price has been consistently forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting bearish momentum.
2. Supply Zone (Red Box):
A red zone is marked at the top, indicating a possible resistance or supply zone.
This suggests that if the price moves back up into this area, it could face selling pressure and drop again.
3. Projected Price Action (White Box & Arrow):
The gray box below represents a potential target zone for the bearish move.
The zigzag pattern inside the box suggests a possible minor retracement before continuing downward.
Conclusion:
The analysis suggests a sell scenario if the price respects the supply zone and rejects it.
A break above the red zone would invalidate this bearish outlook.
The target area appears to be around 103.866, which aligns with a previous support level.
Would you like any modifications to this analysis?
USD index $DXY to 100In this blog space we have discussed the FX:EURUSD and TVC:DXY index on 9th Feb. We said it looks like the FX:EURUSD is forming a local bottom, and the chart was showing lot of resilience. And we said that the next stop on FX:EURUSD will be 1.062 which it has recently surpassed. We also prophesized that because 60% of the TVC:DXY is EUR we might see more weakness in USD.
And now we see the TVC:DXY is below its 0.612 Fib retracement level @ 105. In the short term it is heading to 0.5 in the short term @ 102. We have seen that the index always bounced back when TVC:DXY is @ the psychological level of 100. If the TVC:DXY breaks below the support level @ 100 then it might go to 99 and eventually to 95.
But this USD weakness is not bringing any good news to the Stocks and Crypto. We have to wait until we see a final capitulation in $DXY.
If TVC:DXY goes to 95 then FX:EURUSD above 1.15.
Euro/Usd (Mar/06) for rest of the weekHello eveyone.
as you can see price at golden pocket (high to low).alos near cpr Monthly R3 .
I know it's scary to sell at thi moment but this is what i see in chart.
......................................
( This is an idea and entry-tp-sl placed for my own trade , you can change entry-tp-sl depends on your risk management )
3.5 Technical analysis of short-term gold operationsOn the first trading day of March, the US dollar index fell sharply. Data released by ISM showed that the US ISM manufacturing index in February was 50.3, lower than the expected 50.8, and the previous value in January was 50.9. 50 is the dividing line between prosperity and recession. Although the ISM manufacturing PMI continued to expand in January, the amplitude was small and tended to stagnate. Both new orders and employment shrank. At the same time, the material purchasing price index soared to the highest level since June 2022. After the data was released, the US dollar index fell further.
Gold rebounded sharply, challenging the 10-day moving average. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages still showed a dead cross. The daily RSI rebounded and reached the key pressure zone of 2900-10 in 4 hours. The short-term trend turned to bullish, but it was still not a strong bull market. You can wait for the opportunity to stabilize and go long near 2875.
Gold (XAU/USD) Key Levels & Trade Setups: BUY & SELL ENTRY Gold (XAU/USD) 1-Hour Chart Analysis:
1. Key Resistance Zone:
- The price is currently near the $2,922-$2,930 resistance zone.
- This area has acted as a previous supply zone, indicating potential selling pressure.
2. Potential Price Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Rejection from Resistance & Downtrend
- If price fails to break above $2,922-$2,930, a rejection could send it lower.
- A break of the rising trendline could confirm bearish momentum.
- First target: Around $2,898-$2,900 (previous support zone).
- Second target: Around $2,873, which is a strong demand area.
- Final bearish target: Around $2,855-$2,846 if the momentum continues downward.
Scenario 2: Breakout Above Resistance & Bullish Move
- If gold breaks and closes above $2,930 with strong momentum, further upside is expected.
- First target:$2,945-$2,950, marked as the next resistance level.
- A successful breakout could lead to higher bullish continuation.
3. Trendline & Breakout Structure:
- The price had a previous breakout from a descending channel.
- The current bullish structure could be invalidated if the price breaks below the trendline and key support levels.
Trading Plan:
- Watch for price action at $2,922-$2,930 resistance.
- Look for a rejection confirmation (bearish candle patterns) for a potential short setup.
- For a buy position, wait for a strong breakout above $2,930 with a retest for confirmation.
DXY|LONG SETUPHello, I hope you have a great week ahead. This is my outlook for the Dollar Index, and please feel free to leave your comments and share your own perspective with me.
Initially, on the lower timeframes, I expect a rise to the 108.570 level and a potential breakout into this resistance zone. Afterward, I anticipate a drop to 105.888, which could mark the start of a sharp upward trend from this level. This is just my analysis, not a signal.
"Bearish Pressure on DXY: Key Levels to Watch"🔹 Technical Analysis of U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - 4H Chart
▪️Market Structure & Trend Analysis:
- The chart shows a clear downtrend in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), with a series of lower highs and lower lows.
- The price is trading below the 200-period moving average (blue line) and 50-period moving average (red line), reinforcing bearish sentiment.
🔹Key Levels:
1. Strong Resistance Area ( 107.300 - 107.400)
- This is a significant supply zone where sellers have aggressively pushed the price down in the past.
- The price recently tested this area and failed to break higher, indicating strong resistance.
2. Resistance Level for Further Downside ( 106.700 - 106.800)
- The price is struggling to stay above this level, which has now become a short-term resistance zone.
- If price stays below this level, further downside is likely.
3. Target Area ( 105.453)
- This is the next major support level, where price could find buying interest and potentially reverse or consolidate.
▪️Market Expectation:
- Bearish Continuation:
- If price remains below the 106.700 resistance level, it is likely to continue downward towards the 105.453 target zone.
- Invalidation of Bearish Bias:
- If price breaks and closes above 107.400, it could signal a trend reversal or deeper retracement.
🔹Conclusion:
- Bias: Bearish
- Trading Plan: Look for sell opportunities below resistance zones and target 105.453 for a potential move lower.
😊Don't Forget To Hit The Like Button & Share Your Thoughts In Comments.
DXY Correction Plays Out – Is a Reversal Next? Since the end of January, I have been anticipating a correction in the TVC:DXY , with a target around the 106 support level.
This correction has unfolded as expected, with the Dollar Index touching 106 on Monday, followed by another test and reversal yesterday.
A key observation is that since the early February spike, the DXY has been trading within a falling wedge—a pattern that often signals a potential reversal.
What’s Next?
✅ Bullish confirmation would come with a daily close above the 106.60–106.70 zone. If this happens, we could see a move up to 108.50, a key resistance level.
✅ Interim resistance sits at 107.30, which could also act as a potential target for bulls.
Trading Implications:
If the Dollar Index confirms an upside breakout, it could present selling opportunities in FX:EURUSD , FX:GBPUSD , FX:AUDUSD , and TRADENATION:NZDUSD .
#DXY 4HDXY (4H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is forming a falling wedge pattern, which is generally considered a bullish reversal pattern. This suggests that the downtrend is losing momentum, and a potential upward move could follow if the price breaks above the wedge resistance.
Forecast:
A buy opportunity may arise if the price confirms a breakout from the falling wedge pattern, signaling increased bullish pressure.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: A buy position can be considered after a confirmed breakout above the wedge resistance.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed below the recent swing low to manage risk.
- Take Profit: Target key resistance levels based on previous price action.
Market Sentiment:
The falling wedge suggests potential bullish momentum. A confirmed breakout with strong price action can provide better validation for the buy setup.
DXY Dollar Index Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰🐱👤🐱🏍
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DXY Dollar Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (37800) then make your move - Bearish profits await!"
however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 38500 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 36500 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
DXY Dollar Index Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
⚡Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental factors driving DXY focus on U.S. economic conditions, Fed policy, and global currency dynamics.
Interest Rates:
U.S. Federal Reserve: Rates steady at 3-3.5%, down from 2024’s 4.5-5%. Fed officials stress data dependency, with no cuts signaled despite weak PMI (50.4) and jobless claims (219,000 vs. 215,000 forecast). Real yields (10-year Treasury at 3.8%, ~1% inflation-adjusted) support USD.
Other Countries: ECB at 2.5%, BoJ at 0.25-0.5%, BoE at 4-4.5%—U.S. yield advantage persists, though narrowing.
Impact: Bullish for DXY, tempered by global easing.
Inflation:
U.S.: PCE at 2.6% YoY (Jan 2025), above the Fed’s 2% target, with producer inflation hotter-than-expected (X posts). Inflation fears linger, supporting USD.
Other Countries: Eurozone at 2.8%, Japan at 2.5%, UK at 2.5-3%—global inflation pressures USD rivals less.
Impact: Bullish, as U.S. inflation sustains Fed hawkishness.
Economic Growth:
U.S.: Mixed signals—PMI at 50.4 (near stagnation), jobless claims up, but ADP jobs beat at 183,000 (Jan 2025). Tariffs add uncertainty.
Other Countries: China at 4.5% (slowing), Eurozone at 1.2%, Japan at 1%—U.S. outperforms peers.
Impact: Mildly bullish, U.S. resilience aids USD.
Safe-Haven Flows:
USD competes with JPY and CHF amid tariff risks and geopolitical flare-ups (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East). Recent yen strength (X posts) pressures DXY.
Impact: Mildly bearish, global risk-off challenges USD dominance.
Trade Balance:
U.S. deficit persists, but Trump’s tariffs (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China) aim to bolster USD via trade shifts.
Impact: Bullish long-term, short-term neutral.
⚡Macroeconomic Factors
U.S.-focused with global context:
U.S. Policy: Fed’s tighter stance vs. global easing (ECB, BoJ) favors USD. Trump’s tariff threats add volatility, potentially strengthening USD via trade protectionism.
Global Growth: 3% (Morgan Stanley), with China slowing and Eurozone stagnant (PMI 46.2). U.S. relative strength supports DXY.
Commodity Prices: Oil at $70.44 pressures import-heavy peers (Japan), mildly weakening JPY vs. USD.
Currency Dynamics: Yen strength and EUR softness (EUR/USD below 1.0500) drag DXY lower recently,
⚡Commitments of Traders (COT) Data
Hypothetical COT (mid-Feb 2025, CME):
Large Speculators: Net long USD ~70,000 contracts (down from 80,000 post-110 peak), cooling after profit-taking.
Commercial Hedgers: Net short USD ~80,000, hedging export exposure as tariffs loom.
Open Interest: ~150,000 contracts, stable, reflecting U.S. trader engagement.
Key Insight: Speculative longs suggest bullish bias, but moderation hints at consolidation.
⚡Market Sentiment Analysis
Includes retail, institutional, and corporate traders:
Retail Sentiment: U.S. retail traders likely 60% short DXY at 106.000 (hypothetical broker data), betting on yen/CHF gains. Contrarian upside risk if shorts unwind.
Institutional Traders: U.S. funds (e.g., Citi, HSBC) mixed—bearish short-term (DXY to 96.87, Citi Hong Kong), bullish long-term (WalletInvestor to 119.193). Sentiment leans cautious.
Corporate Traders: U.S. exporters hedge at 106.50-107.00, neutral as tariffs loom; European firms favor EUR weakness.
Social Media (X): notes yen-driven DXY weakness, sees bearish momentum to 106.15—trending bearish.
Broker Data: U.S. IG sentiment ~55% long—balanced positioning.
⚡Quantitative Analysis
Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (106.30), 200-day SMA (105.50)—price below 50-day, above 200-day, neutral signal.
RSI: 45 (daily), bearish momentum fading, room for reversal.
Bollinger Bands: 105.80-106.80 range, 106.000 at midpoint—consolidation likely.
Fibonacci: 38.2% retracement from 110.00-102.50 at 105.62—key support holds.
Volatility Model: Implied volatility (1-month) at 7%, suggesting 0.75-point monthly range (±0.7%).
⚡Intermarket Analysis
USD/JPY: At 150.00, yen strength pressures DXY; drop to 145 could accelerate declines.
EUR/USD: Below 1.0500, EUR weakness supports DXY mildly.
Gold: XAU/USD at 2940 (risk-off proxy) inversely pressures USD.
Equities: S&P 500 range-bound (5960-6120) reflects stability, neutral for DXY.
Bonds: U.S. 10-year yield at 3.8% vs. JGB at 0.9%—yield gap aids USD.
⚡News and Events Analysis
Recent: Trump’s tariff threats (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China, Feb 23-25) fuel risk-off, pressuring DXY via yen strength (X posts). Weak U.S. PMI and jobless claims offset by PCE at 2.6% (Jan 2025).
Upcoming: U.S. PCE data (Feb 28) critical—hotter data could lift DXY, softer data bearish. Fed rhetoric pending.
Impact: Bearish near-term from risk-off, bullish potential from Fed stance.
⚡Overall Summary Outlook
DXY at 106.000 balances U.S. resilience (Fed policy, inflation) against global risk-off pressures (tariffs, yen strength). Fundamentals favor USD long-term, but macro risks and sentiment (retail shorts, X bearishness) suggest near-term softness. COT shows cautious longs, quant signals consolidation, and intermarket flows (gold rise, yen strength) lean bearish. Short-term dip to 105.50-105.91 likely, medium-term range-bound with a bullish tilt if Fed holds firm.
⚡Future Prediction
Bullish Case: DXY to 108.00-110.00 by Q2 2025 if PCE/Fed bolster USD, tariffs lift trade flows, and risk-on resumes.
Bearish Case: Drop to 103.50-105.00 if yen/CHF surge, tariffs falter, or Fed dovishness emerges.
Prediction: Mildly bearish short-term to 105.50, then bullish to 108.00 by mid-2025, driven by Fed policy divergence.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
USD/CHF Poised for a Bullish Reversal at Key SupportThe USD/CHF pair is currently trading near a significant support level around 0.8950, with bullish signals emerging. The harmonic Bat pattern suggests a potential reversal, aligning with historical price reactions at similar levels. Additionally, the presence of green buy markers and RSI indicators approaching oversold conditions indicate possible upward momentum.
If price sustains above the 0.8950 region, a bullish move towards 0.9000 and beyond could unfold, with further resistance around 0.9120. Confirmation of reversal signs, such as bullish candlestick formations and RSI divergence, will strengthen the case for a recovery.
DXY Dollar Index Market Bearish Heist Plan (Day/Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰🐱👤🐱🏍
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DXY Dollar Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 108.500 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 105.500 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
DXY Dollar Index Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
💠Fundamental Analysis
Weakening US Economy: The US economy's growth is slowing down, which could lead to a decline in the dollar's value.
Falling Interest Rates: The US Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates could weaken the dollar.
💠Macroeconomic Analysis
The US economy's growth, inflation rates, and employment numbers influence the dollar's strength.
Global economic trends, such as trade tensions and geopolitical events, also impact the dollar's value.
💠COT Data Analysis
Net Short Positions: Institutional traders and large banks have increased their net short positions in the DXY Dollar Index, indicating a bearish sentiment.
COT Ratio: The COT ratio has fallen to 1.2, indicating a bearish trend.
💠Market Sentimental Analysis
Bearish Sentiment: 55% of client accounts are short on this market, indicating a bearish sentiment.
Option Skew: The 25-delta put option skew has increased to 15, indicating a bearish sentiment.
💠Positioning Data Analysis
Institutional Traders: Institutional traders and large banks are positioning themselves for a bearish trend, with some predicting a decline to 105.50.
Corporate Traders: Corporate traders are also monitoring the index's performance, considering factors like interest rates and global economic trends.
💠Overall Outlook
Bearish Trend: The DXY Dollar Index is experiencing a bearish trend, with a potential decline to 105.50.
Key Support Levels: 106.57, 105.50.
💠Technical Analysis
Moving Averages: The 50-day MA is indicating a bearish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI has fallen to 40, indicating oversold conditions.
Bollinger Bands: The lower band breakout indicates a bearish trend.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩