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COT Analysis - CurrenciesThis week is a quiet week for COT setup markets. In this video I overview how the currency setups which I have identified over the last few weeks (Long USD, Short JPY, AUD, CAD, EUR) have played out and are well underway. As of right now, the only currency that is setup for a trade is the Mexican Peso. This video reviews the combination of factors which have made this market setup for longs. To be clear, this does not mean long now. But this means that, if we get an entry trigger on the daily, we are authorized to long this market. Have a great weekend.
CME:6MZ2024
by Tradius_Trades
Hotter-than-Expected CPI Prints: A Potential Catalyst for DXY an Introduction The release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is a highly anticipated event in financial markets, often influencing investor sentiment, currency valuations, and risk appetite. A hotter-than-expected CPI print, indicating higher-than-anticipated inflation, has significant implications for monetary policy decisions, particularly interest rate cuts. This article explores how such a scenario could strengthen calls to halt or even reverse rate cuts, potentially bolstering the US Dollar Index (DXY) and leading to increased risk aversion. Understanding CPI and Its Impact on Monetary Policy CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the price of a basket of goods and services consumed by households. It is a key indicator of inflation, which central banks closely monitor to assess the overall health of an economy. When CPI rises above the target inflation rate, it suggests that prices are increasing at a faster pace than desired, potentially eroding purchasing power and destabilizing the economy. Central banks often use interest rates as a tool to manage inflation. By raising interest rates, they make borrowing more expensive, which can slow down economic activity and reduce demand for goods and services, ultimately putting downward pressure on prices. Conversely, lowering interest rates can stimulate economic growth but may also lead to higher inflation if demand outpaces supply. The Implications of a Hotter-than-Expected CPI Print If a CPI report comes in hotter than expected, it suggests that inflation is running higher than anticipated. This could lead to increased concerns among central bankers and investors about the potential for inflation to spiral out of control. In response, central banks may feel compelled to pause or even reverse their monetary easing policies. The prospect of higher interest rates can have a significant impact on financial markets. When central banks raise interest rates, it often leads to a stronger domestic currency relative to other currencies. This is because higher interest rates make the domestic currency more attractive to investors seeking higher returns on their investments. In the case of the US Dollar, a stronger DXY can have implications for global financial markets. A stronger dollar can make imports cheaper for US consumers but can also make exports more expensive for US businesses, potentially hurting economic growth. Additionally, a stronger dollar can put downward pressure on commodity prices, which can impact the profitability of commodity-producing countries and industries. The Potential Impact on Risk Aversion A hotter-than-expected CPI print and the subsequent tightening of monetary policy can also lead to increased risk aversion among investors. When investors become more cautious about the outlook for the economy, they may be less willing to take on riskier investments, such as stocks and emerging market bonds. This can lead to a sell-off in these asset classes, as investors seek to shift their portfolios to safer, more liquid assets like US Treasury bonds. Conclusion A hotter-than-expected CPI print can have significant implications for financial markets, particularly if it leads to a change in monetary policy. By strengthening calls to halt or reverse rate cuts, such a scenario could bolster the US Dollar Index and increase risk aversion. Investors should closely monitor CPI releases and their potential impact on central bank decisions and market sentiment.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
DXY US Dollar Internal Level Worth NotingOn an internal basis, the Buck has made it nicely into a potential wave iv high. The Alternate count is there in Purple, but with CPI coming up later this week, we do have some catalysts at hand that would fit nicely with the final wave v leg lower to complete the Wider wave-C and the higher degree wave-2. Obviously, the larger point is we are nearing the time a larger wave-3 much higher comes into picture, with end of year and the first Quarter the obvious turn points.
TVC:DXY
by HendoMacro
DXY (Dollar Index) Technical Analysis and Day Trade Idea👀 👉 The DXY (Dollar Index) recently shifted into a bullish structure on the 4H timeframe, with price now approaching a key resistance level. This could present a potential short day trade opportunity. In this video, we analyse the DXY in detail, reviewing the trend, market structure, and price action, while exploring a possible trade setup. Disclaimer: Forex trading carries significant risk, and market conditions can change rapidly. The information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. 📉✅
TVC:DXY
by fxtraderanthony
1
DXY doing Cycle Wave 2, now inside the Wave C about to break SupHello everyone, In this scenario the DXY has finished the Wave Cycle Wave 1, with 5 Waves (Ending in September 2022), and now it is doing the Wave 2. Inside the Wave 2, we encounter ourselves inside the Wave C already. The Wave C is about to break the 100 support area, and targeting at least 92 target. The 92 target is the minimum move that it needs to perform, since it will be the same lenght as the Wave A. Knowing this, we expect to see other Assets rise as the Dólar falls in the upcoming months
TVC:DXYShort
by xReve
Continued fall of the dollar index DXY. H4 30.09.2024Continued fall of the dollar index DXY The dollar index is moving downwards without changes. There was an attempt to trade, above which it was not allowed to consolidate and eventually fell. I showed this in the last analysis and now I am aiming at the support levels around 99.20. Perhaps they will just make a false update of the low and come back, it is not known in advance, but at the moment we are trading near the visible support and so far without an upward reaction. Therefore, 99.20 is the next strongest level in recent years and it is ideal to test it before a reversal. TVC:DXY
TVC:DXYShort
by KovachTrader
Dollar bulls are strong hereIt has now been exactly a month since the DXY dropped to its price at the start of the year, which also serves as a technical support level. The price has bounced back from this zone twice but has failed to break above the 102 resistance, falling back each time. However, each time the bears attempted a decisive break downward, the bulls stepped in and pushed the price back up. Although the price did dip below the support zone on two occasions, these breaks were minor (around 0.2%) and did not qualify as significant. Yesterday, the price once again reversed strongly from this well-established support zone. It seems as though the bulls are waiting for a catalyst to trigger a true reversal. I anticipate that the USD will strengthen in the coming days and weeks. A break above the 102 resistance would confirm a bottom and open the path for further gains, with 104 as the next target.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
4