Dollar idex is ready to drop next week are you ready ?This week, the market was slow with little movement. However, starting next week, keep an eye on the dollar. The order flow is showing a strong sell, and the daily chart reveals an FVG that indicates a sell from this level. Additionally, the current low aligns with the monthly FVG level. Trading next week should be exciting!
Dxyindex
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis1. Long-Term Uptrend & Ascending Channel
The DXY has been respecting a well-established ascending channel for over two decades, with price action bouncing between the upper and lower trendlines. This suggests a macro bullish structure, despite periodic corrections.
2. Wave Structure for Clarity
The green waves highlight significant price swings within the trend.
These waves illustrate market cycles of expansion and correction, showing how DXY has moved through phases of strength and retracement.
The current movement suggests a similar pattern is playing out, with a likely correction before the next potential leg higher.
3. Key Price Levels
Resistance at ~113.07: A major historical level where the index has faced selling pressure.
Support Zone (~100-102): The blue area represents a critical support region that has acted as a demand zone in previous corrections.
Lower Trendline (~98): If selling pressure continues, the lower boundary of the channel (~98) could act as the final line of support before a potential reversal.
4. Potential Market Scenario
The price has recently rejected the upper region and is heading toward support.
If the 102-100 range holds, a bounce toward the upper trendline (~113) is likely.
If broken, the next target would be the lower channel support (~98) before a possible long-term recovery.
Gold Breaks Out of Triangle Pattern: Targeting $2,970–$2,980This chart shows a breakout from a triangle pattern on the 1-hour timeframe for gold (XAU/USD). The breakout has occurred above the resistance of the triangle, indicating potential bullish momentum.
- Resistance Zone: The previous resistance level was around 2,936–2,940, which was tested multiple times before the breakout. Now, this level may act as new support.
- Target: The projected target for this breakout is near 2,970–2,980, aligning with the height of the triangle pattern.
A successful retest of the breakout level could confirm further bullish movement toward the target zone.
Gold(XAUUSD Bullish Breakout with Upside Potential Towards 2,940This chart shows a bullish structure in gold (XAUUSD) on the 15-minute timeframe.
1. **Break of Structure (BOS)** – There was a BOS to the upside, confirming bullish momentum.
2. **Change of Character (ChoCH)** – Multiple ChoCH events indicate a shift in sentiment before the breakout.
3. **Liquidity & Equal Highs (EQH)** – A weak high is marked around 2,940, suggesting a possible liquidity grab.
4. **Demand Zone & Trendline Support** – The price rebounded from a key demand zone and trendline support, fueling the breakout.
5. **Current Price Action** – Gold is currently in a minor pullback around 2,911 after a strong bullish push. The next potential target is near the 2,940 resistance.
If the price holds above the 2,904–2,911 support zone, further upside is expected toward 2,940. A failure to hold could lead to a retest of lower demand zones.
Gold Teeters on the Edge: 2942 Retest Before the Big Leap!XAU/USD: Gold Eyes New Highs as Market Dynamics Align for Further Upside
Gold (XAU/USD) is once again testing its all-time high (ATH), a critical technical level that historically increases the probability of continued upward momentum. With the psychological 3000 level gradually coming into focus, the market remains on edge, closely monitoring key economic data and geopolitical developments that could fuel the next leg higher.
Current Market Conditions & Fundamental Drivers
Gold’s latest consolidation phase follows an impressive rally, maintaining its long-term uptrend while digesting recent gains. The metal remains well-supported by a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that continue to favor bullish sentiment:
Trump’s Tariff Plans: Former U.S. President Donald Trump has reiterated his stance on imposing tariffs if re-elected, a policy move that historically strengthens gold as investors hedge against trade uncertainty and inflationary pressures.
Federal Reserve’s Dovish Shift: Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts remain elevated. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has hinted at the necessity of monetary easing, he has refrained from providing a specific timeline. This uncertainty has kept the dollar under pressure, indirectly benefiting gold.
Weakening Dollar & Falling Bond Yields: Recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data reinforced a dovish sentiment, signaling softening inflationary pressures. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have reacted accordingly, weakening in response and creating a more favorable environment for non-yielding assets like gold.
Markets have also digested the delay in tariff implementations and mixed messages from policymakers. While the rhetoric from Powell and Trump suggests a growing consensus on the need for lower interest rates, the lack of concrete action leaves room for speculation-driven volatility.
Technical Landscape: Key Levels & Price Structure
Gold is currently consolidating just below its ATH, with a delicate balance between profit-taking and renewed buying pressure. The key technical levels to watch include:
Resistance Levels:
$2942.6 – The immediate barrier gold needs to clear to confirm a breakout.
$2950 – A psychological and technical level that, if breached, could accelerate bullish momentum toward the much-anticipated 3000 mark.
Support Levels:
$2929 – A critical short-term support zone that has previously acted as a springboard for renewed buying interest.
$2922 – A deeper support level where buyers may step in to defend the uptrend.
$2908 – A major pivot point; a break below this level could signal a temporary shift in momentum.
Potential Scenarios & Market Outlook
Direct ATH Retest & Breakout
If gold manages to sustain its momentum and push past $2942-$2950, a test of ATH will be imminent. A decisive breakout above this level could open the doors for a rapid move toward $2975 and beyond, with $3000 becoming a realistic short-term target.
Support Retest Before Further Upside
Should gold fail to break above immediate resistance, a pullback toward $2929-$2922 remains a plausible scenario. This retracement would likely serve as a healthy correction, providing stronger support for the next leg higher.
Deeper Correction Toward $2908
While less likely in the absence of a major catalyst, a sharper decline could see gold testing $2908. Such a move would challenge the uptrend in the short term but might present an attractive buying opportunity for long-term bulls.
Market Catalysts Ahead: U.S. Retail Sales Data
The upcoming U.S. retail sales report is poised to be a key market-moving event. Strong consumer spending data could momentarily boost the dollar, exerting short-term pressure on gold. Conversely, weaker-than-expected retail numbers would reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance, adding fuel to gold’s bullish narrative.
Final Thoughts: Bullish Momentum Intact, Eyes on ATH
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with macroeconomic factors and technical signals aligning in favor of further gains. While a support retest is possible before another rally, the overall trajectory remains bullish, with the 3000 milestone inching closer. Traders and investors should keep a close eye on resistance levels and upcoming economic data, as they could dictate the next major move in gold’s journey toward new highs.
EUR/USD Poised for a Pivotal Resistance BreachEUR/USD: Eyeing a Breakout Amid Dollar Weakness
The EUR/USD pair is navigating a critical juncture as it attempts to capitalize on the ongoing correction in the U.S. dollar. After a prolonged period of downward pressure, the price is now testing a crucial resistance level, hinting at the possibility of a breakout that could pave the way for renewed bullish momentum.
Technical Overview
Following an initial attempt to breach the overarching downtrend resistance, EUR/USD has transitioned into a consolidation phase, creating a defined trading range between 1.053 and 1.021. Within this broader structure, a more localized consolidation channel has emerged, with the price repeatedly challenging resistance at 1.038. This level is proving to be a pivotal inflection point, where market participants are carefully assessing the potential for a sustained bullish reversal.
The ongoing price action suggests that the market is still in the process of determining whether the recent correction in the dollar is sufficient to establish a structural shift in trend. A successful breakout above 1.038, followed by a decisive price stabilization above this threshold, would significantly increase the probability of continued upward movement.
Market Sentiment and Fundamental Factors
Beyond technical considerations, the fundamental landscape remains highly complex. Global economic uncertainties, compounded by the lingering effects of trade disputes and inflationary pressures, continue to shape investor sentiment. The ongoing tariff war and economic slowdown in key regions add another layer of unpredictability, making market reactions more sensitive to macroeconomic developments.
Despite these challenges, the weakening U.S. dollar provides a window of opportunity for the euro to gain traction. If the dollar correction deepens, it could further bolster the euro's position, enabling it to sustain higher levels and potentially embark on a more pronounced bullish trajectory.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance Levels: 1.038, 1.053
Support Levels: 1.033, 1.021
A confirmed breakout above 1.038, supported by strong buying momentum and sustained price action above this zone, could unlock additional upside potential, allowing EUR/USD to advance further within the broader framework of accumulated market energy. Conversely, a failure to hold above this level may result in renewed downward pressure, keeping the pair trapped within its consolidation range.
As the market awaits further clarity, traders and investors should remain vigilant, keeping a close eye on both technical signals and fundamental catalysts that could influence the pair's next major move.
Bearish drop?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the pullback support that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Pivot: 107.51
1st Support: 105.72
1st Resistance: 109.67
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EUR/USD on high time frame
"Regarding EUR/USD on high time frames, as per my recent analysis, the price has shifted towards a bullish momentum. I anticipate the price to surpass the mitigated order block on the 4-hour chart and reach the 1/1 price zone on the weekly and daily time frames. However, this analysis would be invalidated if the price closes below 1.02 on the daily time frame."
If you have any specific questions or if you need further assistance with your text, please let me know!
$BTC.D and $DXY are in diametrically opposite directionsIn this blog space we have been discussing Bitcoin Dominance ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D ) since Dec 2024. On 9th Feb 2025 I posted a blog where we discussed the Fib Retracement levels in CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D chart and we said that we can expect more upside and has broken past 0.618. I said it is possible that the dominance can reach the 0.786 Fib level at 66.12%.
I tried to plot the Dollar index TVC:DXY in the same weekly chart as CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D and it was quite surprising that the FIB retracement levels in CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D are the same as the top to the bottom levels in the TVC:DXY chart. We are looking at the last 5 years for our analysis.
When CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D has broken past 0.618 Fib level and trying to reach 0.786 @66.12%. But the TVC:DXY has broken below 0.786 and in the near term the TVC:DXY level can end up at 0.618 Fib levels which can take TVC:DXY to 104.
So, in the near to medium term is CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D @ 66.12% and TVC:DXY @ 104.
Elliott Wave Insight: DXY Correction to 100 ?PEPPERSTONE:USDX TVC:DXY TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY
📊 DXY Analysis with Elliott Waves 🌊
Wave (B) appears to be completing around 109.
A corrective decline toward the 100 zone (Wave (C)) is likely.
Key Fibonacci targets: 100% at 95.06 and 127.2% at 90.93.
🔎 Keep an eye on price action near these levels for potential reversals.
⚠️ Disclaimer : This analysis is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.
Gold: Northbound GoGold Market Outlook: Northbound Momentum Persists Amid Inflation and Trade Concerns
XAU/USD Rebounds from Inflation Shock, Poised for Further Gains
Following a temporary shakeout triggered by inflation data, gold (XAU/USD) has regained its bullish momentum, reinforcing the narrative of an ongoing uptrend. The precious metal demonstrated remarkable resilience, bouncing back from its dip to $2,865 and reclaiming higher levels as buyers stepped in swiftly. Currently, gold is navigating a pivotal zone around $2,908, a level that could determine the next major price move. Key upcoming events, such as the release of U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, will likely influence gold's trajectory in the short term.
Macroeconomic Landscape: Inflation, Fed Policy, and Trade Risks
The broader macroeconomic environment remains supportive of gold, primarily driven by persistent inflationary pressures and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs have injected fresh uncertainty into the global economic landscape, further bolstering demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues its hawkish stance in response to rising inflation, resulting in higher bond yields that temporarily pressured gold prices downward. However, investors quickly capitalized on the dip, reinforcing the metal’s strong underlying demand.
The upcoming PPI report will be a critical factor in shaping market expectations for the Fed’s next move. Should inflationary pressures remain elevated, gold could benefit as investors hedge against potential economic turbulence. Conversely, a softer PPI reading might provide temporary relief for the dollar and yields, exerting short-term pressure on gold.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Market Sentiment
Gold’s price action suggests that the market is in a consolidation phase within a key support zone. The $2,900–$2,908 range has emerged as an important battleground for bulls and bears. If buyers maintain control above $2,908, the potential for gold to retest and surpass its all-time high (ATH) in the medium term remains strong.
Key Resistance Levels:
$2,920: A critical near-term level that, if breached, could accelerate bullish momentum.
$2,929: A significant resistance point that could attract selling pressure but, if surpassed, would signal continued strength.
$2,942: A breakout above this level could set the stage for a new price discovery phase.
Key Support Levels:
$2,908: The immediate support level that must hold to maintain bullish sentiment.
$2,902: A deeper retracement zone that could serve as a springboard for another leg higher.
Additionally, traders should closely watch the $2,918–$2,920 region, as consolidation above this zone would reinforce bullish momentum and increase the likelihood of an extended rally.
Conclusion: Gold’s Path Forward
Gold remains well-supported by macroeconomic uncertainties and inflationary concerns, with technical indicators pointing to further potential upside. While short-term fluctuations may occur in response to economic data releases, the broader trend suggests that XAU/USD is positioned to continue its northbound journey. Investors should monitor price action around key levels, as a successful defense of support at $2,908 or a decisive break above $2,920 could confirm the next directional move.
With the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and geopolitical risks in focus, gold remains a crucial asset for portfolio diversification and risk management. As market participants await further economic data, the precious metal's resilience underscores its role as a preferred safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty.
Scenario on DXY 13.2.2025I would see the dollar index like this if I was considering going short I would first consider going above the monthly level of 108.048 if the market continued then I have one more SFP at a price around 108.6 if I was going to talk about a long position then first around the monthly level of 107.053 then the next one below the daily level of 106.724.
**DXY 4H Analysis: Ascending Channel Support, Bullish Move AheadThis DXY 4H chart shows an ascending channel with multiple BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) points. The price is currently near the lower trendline support, around 107.754, suggesting a potential bullish reaction.
A minor BOS has formed, and a possible retest of the 108.000 zone could act as confirmation for a bullish move. If the price holds above this support, the next upside target is around 110.062. However, a breakdown below the ascending trendline could indicate weakness, with support levels at 107.706–107.675 and a stronger demand zone lower around 106.400.
Gold Alert: Testing 2881 Risk Zone!Gold at a Crossroads: Awaiting Key Triggers
XAUUSD is navigating a critical juncture, testing a pivotal risk zone that could dictate its next major move. From this level, we either witness a trend continuation or a deeper corrective phase.
Key Drivers: CPI Data & Policy Uncertainty
All eyes are on the upcoming US CPI report, which could inject fresh momentum into the market. Inflation figures will play a decisive role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, influencing both gold and the broader financial landscape.
Meanwhile, geopolitical and economic uncertainties add complexity. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Biden administration is preparing new tariffs, which could introduce fresh volatility and global economic risks. At the same time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled a cautious stance, reinforcing expectations of only a single rate cut in July. This has pushed bond yields higher, creating additional headwinds for gold.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 2898, 2910, 2929
Support: 2881, 2870, 2855
Potential Scenarios:
🔹 Bullish Case: A false break below 2881 could signal ongoing bullish momentum. If buyers defend the 2881 – 2885 zone, gold may stage a rally towards 2930 – 2950 in the short to medium term.
🔹 Bearish Case: A decisive break and consolidation below 2881 could trigger a wave of liquidation, driving prices lower towards 2855 – 2848.
Market Sentiment: A Stalemate Before the Storm
With crucial news ahead, the market is at a tipping point. Whether gold surges or sinks depends on inflation data, Fed policy clarity, and potential tariff developments. Traders should brace for volatility as these catalysts unfold.
Gold (XAUUSD) Holding Key Support – short term buy This gold (XAUUSD) chart on the 15-minute timeframe shows an uptrend within a rising channel. The price is currently testing a key support zone around 2,906. If this support holds and the price doesn’t break below, a potential buying opportunity could emerge, targeting the 2,914–2,926 resistance zone. However, if the support fails, a deeper pullback toward lower levels may occur. Watch for price action signals at the support zone for confirmation.
#DXY 1DAYDXY (1D Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price has broken below the uptrend support, signaling a potential shift from bullish to bearish momentum. This breakdown indicates that buyers were unable to sustain the upward trend, leading to increased selling pressure. Additionally, a sell engulfing candlestick has formed, further confirming bearish sentiment.
Forecast:
A sell opportunity is expected as the breakdown of uptrend support and the sell engulfing pattern suggest further downside movement.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: After a confirmed breakdown and possible retest of the broken support as resistance.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed above the broken support or recent swing high.
- Take Profit: Target lower support zones for potential downside movement.
Market Sentiment:
The combination of the uptrend support breakdown and a sell engulfing pattern indicates that bearish momentum is increasing. Waiting for confirmation of continued selling pressure will help align with the prevailing market trend.