USD Weakens; Currencies ResilientThe Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the greenback against a basket of key currencies, extended its decline to 103.40 (from 103.75) during the holiday trading session.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperformed, causing USD/CAD to drop by 0.7% to 1.3615, hitting a one-month low. Canada's year-on-year retail sales for September surged to 2.7%, beating expectations of 2.0%.
The British Pound (GBP/USD) rebounded to 1.2605 (from 1.2540), while the Euro (EUR/USD) rose to 1.0942 (from 1.0905). Germany's IFO Business Climate increased to 87.3 in November, beating forecasts but slightly lower than the previous reading of 86.9.
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) extended gains to 0.6585 from 0.6560, nearing its three-month high. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) climbed to 0.6085 (from 0.6045) on strong sentiment from Australia and risk appetite.
Against the Japanese Yen, the U.S. Dollar (USD/JPY) dipped to 149.45 from 149.65 in subdued trading. The greenback closed lower against Asian and emerging market currencies.
USD/CNH (Dollar-Offshore Chinese Yuan) dropped to 7.1475 from 7.1515, and USD/THB (Dollar-Thai Baht) ended nearly unchanged at 35.40 (from 35.43). USD/SGD fell to 1.3405 from 1.3420.
Global bond yields rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 4.47% (from 4.40%). The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 4.95% (from 4.90%). Germany's 10-year Bund yield rose by 3 basis points to 2.64%, and Japan's 10-year JGB yield spiked to 0.76% (from 0.71%).
The U.S. stock markets closed stable on Thanksgiving, with the Dow rising 0.27% to 35,383 (from 35,287), and the S&P decreasing to 4,557 (from 4,560). Global equity markets showed mixed performance.
The VIX, measuring U.S. stock market volatility, dropped to its lowest close since January 2020, reaching 12.46, a 2.7% decrease. Increasing expectations suggest that central bank tightening measures have concluded, contributing to calmer stock markets.
Dxyindex
US Dollar Faces Supports: Potential Double Bottom Signals MarketUS Dollar Faces Supports: Potential Double Bottom Signals Market Dynamics
Major currency pairs continue their range-bound movement on Monday as investors refrain from making significant directional bets. The market sentiment is cautious due to escalating concerns, with investors eyeing key inflation data releases from both the United States (US) and the Eurozone later in the week.
Early Monday, Asian markets saw declines, influenced by the People’s Bank of China's (PBOC) lack of detailed information on stimulus measures for private firms and rising respiratory illnesses in China. The ongoing decrease in China’s Industrial Profits, coupled with uncertainty surrounding major central banks' interest rate outlooks, further contributed to the subdued market mood.
The return of US traders after the Thanksgiving holiday break is awaited, and the US S&P 500 futures, considered a risk barometer, indicate a 0.30% decline on the day.
Despite the cautious market sentiment, the US Dollar experiences selling pressure as it hovers around the 103.200 zone. Notably, there's potential for a Double Bottom formation, suggesting a strong recovery for the USD. The existence of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) around $105.000 becomes noteworthy, serving as a potential target point in the event of a market reversal.
Our Preference
Above 102.600 look for further upside with 104.2150 & 105.000 as targets.
Looking to see if DXY re accumulatesLast week was definitely a lesson learned. This week working on my patience and really waiting for the market to show me direction, without marrying a bias.
Currently seeing DXY coming into the extreme of the trading range, understanding price can alway re accumulate at a previous are of accumulation. I want price to show me re accumulation before I start looking for price to continue higher.
If we don’t get clear re accumulation then either we sweep the low then accumulate, or just continue lower since price is coming in a bearish counter trend.
DXY is Ready to Go UP🚀🏃♂️The DXY index is moving in the 🟢 Support zone($103.78_$102.93) 🟢 near the SMA(200) and 1 00_SMA(Weekly) .
🕯If we want to look at the last three daily candles of the DXY index from the candlestick pattern, we can see the reversal patterns of Hammer and Morning Star very well.
💡Also, another sign that shows us the end of the downward trend of the DXY index is the Falling Wedge Pattern in the RSI indicator .👇
🔔I expect the DXY index to trend higher in the coming days and attack the 🔴Resistance zone($105.88_$104.630)🔴 again.
U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, Daily frame⏰.
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DXY D TFOn D TF I can RSI is Oversold and some pull back from 103.2$
Pull back until the resistance level 104.56$ is OK for continuation of the Downtrend. **(n.1)**
The most important right now is not to see DXY above 104.56$ price level on W TF. In this case the chance of the continuation of the Uptrend will increase. **(n.2)**
Keeping an eye on W close.
On HTF I see more reasons of the further price decrease, but its a market, and we should always pay attention on what is going on on LTF.
--- ### #DXY - 6W TFWhile looking at HTF charts, suddenly I saw this coincidence on the chart.
Will it play out? - I dont know. At least I cannot be sure 100% right now.
But as usually there are IMPORTANT levels to pay attention now.
Because on LTF there is still possibility for the bounce, I will write about that later.
Just keep in mind that if #DXY loses the support at 93 - 90$ it will go lower towards to 80 - 75$, and RSI shows us that it is possible.
DXY Elliot WaveUpon examining the Elliott Wave pattern for the DXY in a broader timeframe, it seems that the current phase aligns with the fourth wave. This phase could be characterized either as a zigzag or a WXY correction. Based on this interpretation, it's plausible to anticipate an initial upward trend leading towards the fifth wave, preceding a notable pullback in the index.
DXY (Dollar index) Longs to 104.000My bias for the dollar is bullish, as I am expecting a major pull back from this key level of demand that we have marked out on the daily time frame. As you can tell by the price action, bearish pressure is now getting exhausted so, we will be looking out for a wyckoff accumulation on the lower time frame to give us more confluence that this move will take place. As I don't personally trade the dollar, I will be using as it a sign to sell my other pairs.
As we know already if the dollar becomes bullish we will expect bearish pressure for pairs like GU, EU and gold, visa versa. In addition to this, the daily demand holds a lot of significance as it has broken structure to the upside and swept liquidity therefore, we can expect a nice reaction from this AOI to potentially mitigate the supply above or fill the imbalances that have been left.
My confluences for DXY$ Longs are as follows:
- Overall DXY market is still long term bullish even though we temporarily bearish.
- Price mitigated a strong level of demand on the (daily Time frame) that caused a BOS to the upside.
- Price tapped in very slowly and the candle sticks have less volume, indicating that the bearish pressure is now exhausted and price is now looking like it wants to reverse.
- Wyckoff accumulation has started to form very gradually on the lower timeframe.
- Theres lots of imbalances above to target as well as supply zones to mitigate in order for price to continue in its bearish trend.
- Price has also taken out a key level of engineering liquidity on the way down approaching the zone, so now price has enough liquidity to move the market back up.
P.S. I am still bearish but as price has tapped in a key level, my thoughts are to buy back up to the nearest supply in order for us to follow the dollar trend downwards. I will be waiting on what market does on Monday as I will be looking for imminent Sells for EU, GU and XAUUSD.
Important update on the USDT Dominance and the US Dollar IndexGreetings, Traders,
We have a brief update on USDT dominance and the US Dollar Index using a 3-day timeframe chart. This video holds significance for analyzing the crypto market, so be sure to watch it through to the end. If you have any questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to reach out. I'm here and just a comment away.
Best regards,
Team Dexter.
DXY → Extra losses look likely below 104.00TVC:DXY attempts a mild recovery to the 104.30/40 band after bottoming out just below the 104.00 support earlier in the session on Wednesday.
The breakdown of the November low of 103.98 (November 14-15) should pave the way for a quick test of the critical 200-day SMA at 103.60 prior to the weekly low of 102.96 (August 30).
In the meantime, while above the key 200-day SMA, today at 103.60, the outlook for the index is expected to remain constructive.
#DXY The dollar has reached the reversal zone#DXY
The dollar has reached the reversal zone (Harmonic Enlightenment pattern)
The decline prediction fails with a daily close above 108.14. Otherwise, we wait for the green targets
The "Butterfly" pattern is a technical analysis pattern used in trading, including cryptocurrency trading. It is a specific type of harmonic pattern that traders use to identify potential reversal points in the price of an asset. The Butterfly pattern is characterized by several price points that form specific geometric shapes on a price chart. Here's a brief explanation of the Butterfly Bearish Harmonic Pattern in crypto:
1. **Initial Move:** The pattern begins with a significant price move, which could be either an uptrend or a downtrend, depending on whether it's a bearish or bullish Butterfly pattern.
2. **X-A Leg:** This is the first leg of the pattern and represents the initial move's retracement. It's labeled as "X" and is usually the point where traders first identify the potential pattern.
3. **A-B Leg:** This leg is the next move in the opposite direction of the initial move, labeled as "A." It retraces a portion of the X-A leg.
4. **B-C Leg:** The B-C leg represents a move in the direction of the initial X-A leg and is labeled as "B."
5. **C-D Leg:** The final leg, labeled as "D," is the most critical part of the pattern. It extends beyond the X-A leg and typically ends near a Fibonacci extension level of 1.618 or 2.618 of the X-A leg.
The Bearish Butterfly pattern suggests a potential reversal to the downside. Traders look for this pattern to anticipate that the price may start declining after completing the D leg. It's important to note that not all identified patterns result in price reversals, so traders often use additional technical indicators and risk management strategies to make informed trading decisions.
Remember that cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and trading based solely on technical patterns carries risks. It's crucial to conduct thorough research and consider other factors before making trading decisions in the crypto market or any financial market.
EURUSD LongEURUSD had great week showing intention to look for higher prices
Price most likely to hit 38% fibo and retrace before pushing higher
Overall sentiment of the market is very bull for EURUSD :
1- Weekly Overview - Huge positive candle on the weekly close
2- DXY broke support and is looking bearish. The structure breakout projection is point DXY to drop to mid 38%-50% fibo .. plenty of room for EURUSD to grow and to break reverse to bull
3- Main USD pairs - All looking bad for USD therefore EUR should benefit from but also expect several retracements to adjust and look for supports in order to sustain their gains from this week
- USDJPY - Looking Bear
- USD vs GBP also on the bear side
- USDCAD also not looking good for USD
GOLD ANALYZE 1H Hello dear traders,
In the global gold market, on the 1-hour timeframe, we are witnessing a downward trend where the price, after forming a bottom at 1931.5 and making an upward spike, indicates the possibility of forming a price pivot.
We have two scenarios for the movement of gold:
1. If the trendline is broken, we expect further price growth. However,
2. if the price shows a reaction at the trendline and turns back towards the pivot, we anticipate price support.
It is worth mentioning that if the floor at 1931 is lost, this analysis loses its validity.
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