DXY NEW MACRO ANALYSISClosing of the day or week below or above this level will determine the DXY movement.
Before this jump in the last analysis, I wrote that divergences were formed and that dxy should now jump.
News along with divergences pushed the price.
If the price keeps this level, the expectation is 108, as was the plan all this time, but we will see what the price shows
Dxyindex
DXY still shows no signs of breaking out of the trendlineThere has been little change in the market since the minutes of the Fed's monetary policy meeting were released in September. This highlighted concerns about U.S. economic growth and caused the Fed to become cautious about raising interest rates.
Dallas Fed President Rory Logan and Fed Director Christopher Waller have argued that rising U.S. Treasury yields in recent months could prompt the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates. Waller said on October 11 that higher market interest rates could help the Fed control inflation and allow policymakers to consider whether further rate hikes are necessary.
"Overall, the minutes indicate that Fed officials are increasingly concerned about recession risks to the U.S. economy," said Carl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Kopay in Toronto.
The recent weakness in the US dollar is due to a decline in US Treasury yields, with bond prices rising due to the Fed's "loose" stance on future interest rate hikes. Investors are now awaiting the release of the main inflation report today, October 12th, for further guidance on the future direction of interest rates. Additionally, the market is closely monitoring the conflict between Israel and the Islamic organization Hamas.
Conversely, the euro rose to $1.0634, its highest level since September 25th. Meanwhile, the pound rose to a three-week high of $1.2337.
Dutch central bank board member Klaas Nott said on October 11 that the ECB has made "important progress" in bringing inflation down to its target level, but there is still a long way to go and rules out the possibility of inflation rising. He said he could not. Interest rates may rise further in the future.
DXY I Still have the DXY in the expanded Flat with a top in at $107 which happens to be the fib retracement 50% level of the 5 down wave A.
I expect the momentum indicators to begin to slowly roll over. RSI, Stochastic RSI , OBV , MACD should all confirm the last leg of the down trend wave C which I expect to finish around $94.
At $94 the DXY should complete a very HTF wave 4 and then kick off what is shaping up to be one ugly recession. W5 targets for DXY run over $130 and I don't think much will survive this risk off trade set up.
This is likely what many analysts are referring to as the "Blow off Top" to which I find myself reluctantly agreeing with since all my charts keep leading me down this rabbit hole. ;)
DXY Index will Go Down to 🟢Heavy Support zone🟢(1-Hour)⏰✅The DXY index managed to break the Uptrend line and 🟢 Support zone 🟢.
💫Currently, DXY reacted well to the Resistance line and formed a 💫Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern💫 near this line in the 1-hour time frame ⏰.
🔔I expect the DXY to trend lower in the coming hours , enter the 🟢 Heavy Support zone 🟢, and fall to at least the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡.
U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 1-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
EUR/USD, DXY in focus for FOMC mins, PPI, Fed speakersWe have a busy claendar today for forex traders, with US producer prices data, FOMC minutes and several Fed members set to speak. Clearly this lineup has the potential for some larger moves on the US dollar, and that helps explain why the 1-day implied volatilty level for EUR/USD is nearly 200% of its 20-day average.
What’s grabed our attention is that DXY has retraced for five days yet is holdig above the January high / September 29 low. And that this coicides with a euro rally that has paused beneath resistance, it suggests the USD may be nearing an inflection point.
For EUR/USD to roll over form current levels, weak PPI data, dovish comments and minutes may be required. But traders should keep an eye on bond yields, because if they continue to fall it could further weigh on the US dollar and helpd EUR/USD braeak above the resitance cluster. However it plays out, bulsl and bears have clear levels to monitor for their setups.
USD is showing positive signals amid tensions in the Middle EastEarlier this week, the safe-haven dollar strengthened against the euro as military clashes between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic militant group Hamas raised concerns that the conflict could spread beyond Gaza. However, the dollar weakened against other major currencies.
Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel's response to the multi-pronged attack by Palestinian armed groups from Gaza would "transform the Middle East." Risk sentiment is fragile as Israel announces it is mobilizing 300,000 reservists and imposing a complete blockade of Gaza amid potential attacks in response to weekend attacks by Hamas.
Fed member Bostic told the American Bankers Association that even if the Fed raises interest rates to slow the economy while keeping inflation in check, there is no prospect of a recession. Joseph Trevisani, a senior analyst at FX Street in New York, said Bostic's response comes amid the eruption of conflict in the Gaza Strip.
Analysts also said the decline in U.S. yields initially reflected comments from Fed officials that there may not be a need for further rate hikes given the rise in long-term yields, and the port sector becoming a safe-haven asset following a monetary policy clash. He said this was due to comments from traders who were looking for. Hamas and Israel.
Traders are currently waiting for key US inflation figures to be released today, October 11th. Investors are also keeping an eye on developments surrounding the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic group Hamas.
DXY Index New Week MovePair : DXY Index
Description :
Falling Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and Breakout of the Upper Trend Line and Retracement. Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " A " Corrective Wave. We have Strong Divergence and Break of Structure
Entry Precautions :
Don't Enter until its Rejects from Previous Support or Complete its Retracement
Dollar Index -> Plain And SimpleMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only focus on price action and market structure 🖥️
I am trading the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on the Dollar Index.
Over the past couple of years, the Dollar Index has been trading in a quite solid rising channel and jusr recently perfectly retested and already started to reject the psychological $102 level. I do expect more continuation towards the upside to retest the upper resistance trendline.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
When the market moves where, and how, and if - these are all unknown.
The only thing which you can control is your risk.
- Philip Basic Trading -
Keep the long term vision🫡
DXY : Here's what you need to know to start your week.DXY
New forecast
The US dollar index faces the risk of ending its 12-week upward streak, with a possible decline to 104.19.
Factors contributing to the dollar's strength include Fed hawkishness, recession fears in the Eurozone, and weak data from Asia
US inflation data could provide more clarity on the future path of interest rates following Friday's strong jobs report, while minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting on Wednesday will also be looked at closely. Meanwhile, the third quarter earnings season begins and energy prices remain in focus. Here's what you need to know to start your week.
Inflation data
The US will release what markets have been waiting for September CPI data this week as investors continue to evaluate the Fed's rate hikes for "a longer period".
The August CPI report showed the fastest increase in 14 months as the cost of gasoline rose, although core inflation, which excludes food and fuel costs, rose at its slowest pace in nearly two years.
Jobs data on Friday showed a larger-than-expected rise in non-farm payrolls last month as wage growth slowed, suggesting that monetary policy may remain tight for some time.
Federal Reserve meeting minutes
The US central bank is set to publish minutes from its September meeting on Wednesday as market watchers look for clues on whether policymakers are leaning toward another interest rate hike before the end of the year.
Beginning of third quarter earnings
The third-quarter earnings season begins with reports from several major banks as Wall Street investors look for a catalyst to revive stocks in the face of rising bond yields.
⭕️This week’s data
⭕️Monday and Tuesday no data
⭕️Important data on Wednesday: American inflation for consumers and producers
Technical abstract :
The index of Dollar witnessed negative performance in trading before the closing of the last sessions of the week,
on the 4H time frame
The price trade in the bullish channel for a long time and now trade at the bottom of channel and above the support zone 105.22 - 105.61,so we have to wait until get out of the channel and breach the support zone then we will sell .
therefore the downward trend scenario will be remain valid and effective when the price breach that level we mentioned above and will try to reach 104.01 as a next negative target ,taking into account that as long as price trade above 105.61 the price will try to be continue at the bullish trend .
On the weekly time frame
As we see the price closed weekly bearish candle and that is first bearish candle since 3 month , the price pullback from that zone strongly so we expect the bearish tendency will be on control during the next week .
support line : 105.61 , 105.22
resistance line : 106.55 , 107.51
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
#DXY is on the support #dollarindex is growing and this is not good for markets. #dxy is closed on both trend and ichimoku support on last friday. War broken out in Israeli - Palestine lands and we may expect further move of #dxy with this monday opening. If Dollar Index breaks the support downwards, then markets will plant green candles for days.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Dyor.
DXY will Fall by Head and Shoulders Pattern⏰(1-Hour)⏰✅The DXY Index has managed to form a Head and Shoulders Pattern in the 🔴Resistance zone🔴.
🔨DXY broke the 🟢 Support zone 🟢 and Neckline hours ago.
🔔I expect DXY to start falling again to 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡and Uptrend line after completing the pullback to Neckline .
U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 1-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Potential for Continued Rise in US Dollar as Bond Yields SpikeBond yields have been on the rise lately, and this trend may continue in the near future. As a result, it is crucial to approach the situation with caution and consider the potential opportunities it presents.
The correlation between bond yields and the US dollar is well-established. When bond yields increase, it often attracts foreign investors seeking higher returns, leading to an appreciation in the value of the US dollar. Given the recent spike in bond yields, it is reasonable to anticipate a continued rise in the US dollar's value.
However, it is important to note that market dynamics can be unpredictable, and various factors can influence currency movements. Therefore, I encourage you to exercise prudence and conduct thorough analysis before making any trading decisions. Here are a few factors to consider:
1. Monitor Economic Data: Keep a close eye on economic indicators such as inflation rates, employment figures, and GDP growth. These data points can provide insights into the overall health of the US economy and its potential impact on the currency.
2. Central Bank Policies: Stay informed about any shifts in monetary policies by the Federal Reserve. Changes in interest rates or quantitative easing measures can significantly influence the US dollar's trajectory.
3. Global Events and Geopolitical Risks: Consider geopolitical developments and their potential impact on the US dollar. Factors such as trade tensions, political instability, or unexpected events can create volatility in the currency markets.
Considering the potential for the US dollar to continue its rise, it may be prudent to explore long positions on the currency. However, I strongly urge you to conduct thorough research and consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Remember, trading involves inherent risks, and it is crucial to carefully assess your risk tolerance and financial goals.
As always, it is essential to stay updated with the latest market news and trends. By staying informed and adopting a cautious approach, you can navigate the currency markets more effectively.
Wishing you successful trading ahead!
DXY index bottom and BTC topINDEX:DXY
Possible Targets and explanation idea
➡️weekly (even yearly) FIB top for DXY now we are in a downtrend
➡️last move on DXY will be around 107-109 than down till 2025-2026
➡️Bottom for DXY will be around 92
➡️The same time historically its will be the new high (not for sure ATH) for BTC
➡️After that we will start new bear market in crypto
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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• Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓
• For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
DXY - Dollar Update TVC:DXY
With what am seeing on the chart, there is a 60% possibility that DXY will take out this 4 hour time swing low, which is also the recent low on daily.
This automatically means currencies paired against the dollar like EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD etc, will be bullish for today.
However, DXY is still bullish, the drop is just a retracement to take out sell stops liquidity.
How dollar react after taking out the low will determine what our next bias will be.
DXY - Elliott Wave CountDXY - Elliott Wave Count
DXY - On the Daily charts, DXY displays a clear ABC Wave formation, indicating that the market is likely to undergo a significant correction with Wave C toward the 100 to 95 range. this down move will boost metals & indexes upwards. It is advisable to exercise caution when considering long positions in dxy. However, if the market breaks above 108, this view would be deemed invalid.
Please note that this information is for educational purposes only, and it is crucial to trade with caution.
TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY INDEX:DXY
DXY/USD ~ Flat Bottom Pattern + Inverse H&S (15min)TVC:DXY developing flat bottom pattern after rejecting upper parallel channel + potential inverse H&S pattern, TBC.
Inverse H&S Playbook (Long):
- Break above 200MA/38.2% Fib/descending trend-line confluence
- Reject 50% Fib/overhead supply (white box) confluence then bounce off 38.2% Fib to create the "Right Shoulder"
- Re-test & break (hold) above overhead supply confluence to activate inverse H&S pattern
- TP 1st target = ~107.70-108 21st Nov 2022 wick top/supply (red box)
Inverse H&S breakout also coincides w/ break above ascending parallel channel.
Flat Bottom Bear Break Playbook (Short):
- Break below horizontal "Flat Bottom" line to re-test middle trend-line (dark blue/dashed)
- Failed re-test of Flat Bottom &/or middle trend-line validates Bearish price action
- Moving averages (esp. 200MA) act as dynamic resistance, pushing price action towards lower parallel channel
- TP 1st target = ~106-105.70 (green box)
DXY Reversal Based on historical pattern Hi Guys,
JUst for the Education purpose, found one interesting pattern in history which might be very worth looking at TVC:DXY charts
Lets look at this chart where i have market how DXY reversal might Play out
www.tradingview.com
This pattern i found which has similar or should i exact same character
Watch this in Hourly TF
its same pattern senario .
DXY MY VIEW 60 MIN TIME FRAMEThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Thanks for your support....
Tradelikemee Academy
Celebrating the Bright Future of the US Dollar! 🌞I bring you fantastic news that will surely make your day even brighter. The upcoming job report expect to have an impressive addition of 150,000 new jobs, coupled with a lower unemployment rate. This remarkable achievement will set the stage for an exciting journey ahead for the US dollar!
The US economy continues to demonstrate its resilience and strength, and these latest figures are a testament to that fact. With each passing day, the US dollar is becoming an even more attractive investment opportunity. As traders, it is essential to recognize and seize the potential this brings to our portfolios.
So, what does this mean for you? It's time to consider a long position on the US dollar! The positive job report signals a favorable market sentiment and reflects the growing confidence in the US economy. By taking advantage of this upward trend, we can position ourselves to reap the benefits of a strengthening US dollar.
Here are a few compelling reasons why you should consider going long on the US dollar:
1. Economic Growth: The addition of 150,000 new jobs indicates a robust and expanding economy. This growth is likely to fuel increased consumer spending and business investments, further bolstering the value of the US dollar.
2. Lower Unemployment: The decrease in the unemployment rate signifies a healthier labor market, which translates into higher wages and increased consumer confidence. As disposable incomes rise, so does the demand for goods and services, ultimately benefiting the US dollar.
3. Global Safe Haven: In times of uncertainty, the US dollar has historically been a safe haven for investors. With its strong economic fundamentals and stable political environment, the US dollar is likely to attract capital flows, driving its value higher.
Now is the time to act! As traders, we have the opportunity to capitalize on this positive news and optimize our investment strategies. By going long on the US dollar, we position ourselves to potentially unlock substantial gains in the future.
Remember, successful trading requires staying informed and making well-informed decisions. Keep a close eye on market trends, economic indicators, and geopolitical events that may impact the US dollar's performance.
Let's embark on this exciting journey together, riding the wave of optimism and prosperity that lies ahead. Long live the US dollar!
DOLLAR INDEX DXY The dollar index extended gains to above 107, its most substantial level since November, and tracking Treasury yields higher, as hawkish comments from Fed officials continue to strengthen the expectation that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period. Meanwhile, economic data continues to signal a resilient economy, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI indicating the most minor contraction in factory activity in nearly a year for September. Several labor market indicators, including the upcoming payroll report and further comments from Fed officials, will be closely watched in the coming days. The dollar strengthened against all major currencies, with the most pronounced buying activity against the Aussie, after the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady. The greenback also appreciated against the Japanese yen and the British pound.
The United States Dollar Index or DXY measures the performance of the dollar against a basket of other currencies including EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF, and SEK. The EUR is, by far, the largest component of the index, making up 57.6% of the basket followed by JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), and CHF (3.6%).
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Thank you.