Dxylong
DXY Update and Levelsafter good impulse move to the upside there is certainty of price going into pullback mode
because
. price recently broken the trend line which was from weekly side so the next liquidity zone is supply from monthly which is 1% away and on other hand price can try to retest the fvg which nearby 0.5% below the current price (105.998) or the round figure 105 can act as support
my take - before going to 107 zone price should retrace and get some liquidity from fvg
DXY (dollar index) Out lookMy bias for the dollar is that it may start to slow down and experience some pullbacks, likely to fill the imbalances below and capture some liquidity. However, I also see Scenario A playing out, which could push the price upward and continue the bullish trend.
Given the current market conditions, I expect these retracements, which also align with my outlook for EU and GU.
Confluences supporting my bullish bias on the dollar:
- The DXY has been very bullish and has broken significant structure to the upside.
- The DXY has surpassed the key psychological level of 105.00.
- There is still a lot of liquidity to the upside that needs to be taken.
- Clean demand zones are in place, reinforcing my bullish outlook.
P.S. Be cautious and watch for the major red news on Wednesday, specifically the CPI event, as it will provide key insight for the forecast. I expect the dollar to retrace ahead of the news, but once it's released, I anticipate the dollar will shoot back up.
Gold’s Sharp Decline Brings Profits; Ready to BuyI predicted it in advance—the election results would boost the dollar, leading to a drop in gold. Do you trust my analysis? Have you ever traded with such precision? If you followed my suggestion, I’m sure you’ve made a substantial profit! Gold’s volatility remains high, and it may drop below 2700 before rebounding. I’m ready to start buying—are you joining in?
Gold Trading Insights Ahead of the Election!Although gold didn’t fluctuate much today, our returns were quite impressive! These small range movements create excellent opportunities for agile buying and selling. As I mentioned yesterday, the New York market did indeed decline today, and the buy signal I provided at the open hit the TP of 2745 perfectly. I then began selling, ultimately closing the trade at 2733 with great results.
Tomorrow is the election, and I believe the results will boost the dollar, which could lead to a drop in gold prices. I plan to continue selling during tomorrow's New York session. What do you think?
USDJPY 151.950 -0.64% LONG IDEA INTRADAY SET-UPHELLO TRADERS
Hope everyone is doing great
📌 A look at USDJPY from MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS
USDJPY 4H TF
* Mon. opens strongly bullish with the 7am SAT pushing up but wicking out.
* Trading out of a sweep on an long term high.
* 4H vi above looking good for targets.
* looking for long entries in correlation with the DXY
* looking for PO3 rules towards the Downside to continue HIGHER.
* The weekly & daily TF show we are still showing signs of a BULLISH move still.
* Looking for continuation of this move.
* We saw a rally with the bears, strong momentum to the downside.
* Looking at the 1H FVG, this is where I would look for long entries this week.
* Should this PD ARRAY hold will be LONG for the GJ intraday.
* BASED on the price action served.
HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK.
SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS.
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE
SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
*
Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
| * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤
LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
Near-term Bullish DXY Bias
Monthly chart for DXY hints a possible distribution zone formation.
As there is a bullish candlestick pattern formed at last month, bullish bias seems to be the higher possible trend for now.
Weekly Bullish trend channel formation suggest higher upside is likely, however, last bar doji candlestick pattern suggest indecision.
Near-term support and resistance at 100.25 and 106.50.
Last Friday bullish bar closes back near Monday's opening reinforced near term bullish bias.
Looking forward, next week 5 Nov being US presidential elections day will add volatility to the market.
So, price may likely to go the next higher order block area.
Dollar index on the floor of the trading rangeAccording to the weekly chart of the dollar index and since tomorrow and next week we have important data such as unemployment claims, and also these data will probably strengthen the strength of the dollar, it is expected that the dollar index will rise to the middle of the trading range in the first step. .
A Bullish Turn: Investors Embrace the DollarA Shift in Sentiment
In a surprising turn of events, hedge funds, asset managers, and other speculators have shifted their stance on the US dollar, moving into bullish positions in the week ending October 22nd. This significant shift, totaling approximately $9.2 billion in long dollar bets, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) compiled by Bloomberg, marks a dramatic departure from the previous week's net short position.
A $10.6 Billion Swing
This abrupt change in sentiment represents a substantial $10.6 billion swing from the previous week, when traders were actively betting against the greenback. The reasons behind this bullish pivot are multifaceted, primarily driven by a confluence of factors, including stronger-than-expected US economic data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets as the US election approaches.
A Recalibration of Fed Expectations
A series of positive economic reports released throughout October has forced a recalibration of previously dovish Federal Reserve expectations. The robust economic indicators have raised the possibility of a more hawkish monetary policy stance from the Fed, which could potentially lead to higher interest rates. Historically, a stronger US dollar has been correlated with higher interest rates, making the greenback an attractive investment for global investors.
Election-Year Uncertainty
As the US presidential election draws near, geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility tend to increase. In such times, investors often seek refuge in safe-haven assets like the US dollar. The dollar's perceived status as a reliable store of value, combined with the potential for increased market volatility, has likely contributed to the recent surge in demand for the currency.
Implications for the Global Economy
The shift towards a bullish dollar position has significant implications for the global economy. A stronger dollar can negatively impact emerging market economies that rely heavily on dollar-denominated debt. Additionally, it can make US exports more expensive, potentially hindering economic growth. However, for countries with strong economic fundamentals and current account surpluses, a stronger dollar can be beneficial.
A Cautious Outlook
While the recent bullish trend in the dollar is notable, it is essential to maintain a cautious outlook. The global economic landscape remains uncertain, and a variety of factors, including geopolitical events, trade tensions, and central bank policies, could influence the dollar's trajectory. As such, it is crucial for investors to carefully consider the risks and rewards associated with dollar-based investments.
In conclusion, the recent shift towards a bullish dollar position reflects a significant change in market sentiment. A combination of stronger-than-expected US economic data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets has driven investors to embrace the greenback. While the implications of this trend for the global economy are far-reaching, it is essential to remain vigilant and adapt to evolving market conditions.
Unmasking DXY's Bullish Potential with Volume ProfileH ello,
The unusually high market activity around the 100.5 level indicated strong bullish accumulation. The yellow ellipses highlight the volume and price levels. You can see that volume decreases both above and below this key level. This accumulation is evident because the price broke out of a bullish consolidation pattern, as shown in the left yellow circle, reaching a high of 103.9, indicated by the yellow line. This is the current level, where you may notice exceptionally high market activity. As the price remains above the green demand zone, the red supply zone may be tested, as suggested by the volume profile.
Regards,
Ely
Hotter-than-Expected CPI Prints: A Potential Catalyst for DXY an
Introduction
The release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is a highly anticipated event in financial markets, often influencing investor sentiment, currency valuations, and risk appetite. A hotter-than-expected CPI print, indicating higher-than-anticipated inflation, has significant implications for monetary policy decisions, particularly interest rate cuts. This article explores how such a scenario could strengthen calls to halt or even reverse rate cuts, potentially bolstering the US Dollar Index (DXY) and leading to increased risk aversion.
Understanding CPI and Its Impact on Monetary Policy
CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the price of a basket of goods and services consumed by households. It is a key indicator of inflation, which central banks closely monitor to assess the overall health of an economy. When CPI rises above the target inflation rate, it suggests that prices are increasing at a faster pace than desired, potentially eroding purchasing power and destabilizing the economy.
Central banks often use interest rates as a tool to manage inflation. By raising interest rates, they make borrowing more expensive, which can slow down economic activity and reduce demand for goods and services, ultimately putting downward pressure on prices. Conversely, lowering interest rates can stimulate economic growth but may also lead to higher inflation if demand outpaces supply.
The Implications of a Hotter-than-Expected CPI Print
If a CPI report comes in hotter than expected, it suggests that inflation is running higher than anticipated. This could lead to increased concerns among central bankers and investors about the potential for inflation to spiral out of control. In response, central banks may feel compelled to pause or even reverse their monetary easing policies.
The prospect of higher interest rates can have a significant impact on financial markets. When central banks raise interest rates, it often leads to a stronger domestic currency relative to other currencies. This is because higher interest rates make the domestic currency more attractive to investors seeking higher returns on their investments.
In the case of the US Dollar, a stronger DXY can have implications for global financial markets. A stronger dollar can make imports cheaper for US consumers but can also make exports more expensive for US businesses, potentially hurting economic growth. Additionally, a stronger dollar can put downward pressure on commodity prices, which can impact the profitability of commodity-producing countries and industries.
The Potential Impact on Risk Aversion
A hotter-than-expected CPI print and the subsequent tightening of monetary policy can also lead to increased risk aversion among investors. When investors become more cautious about the outlook for the economy, they may be less willing to take on riskier investments, such as stocks and emerging market bonds. This can lead to a sell-off in these asset classes, as investors seek to shift their portfolios to safer, more liquid assets like US Treasury bonds.
Conclusion
A hotter-than-expected CPI print can have significant implications for financial markets, particularly if it leads to a change in monetary policy. By strengthening calls to halt or reverse rate cuts, such a scenario could bolster the US Dollar Index and increase risk aversion. Investors should closely monitor CPI releases and their potential impact on central bank decisions and market sentiment.
COT Analysis - Currency SectorA few weeks ago I was calling for shorts on 6J, longs on DX, and shorts on ZB. Those trades are well underway, with partials already taken.
This week, COT strategy is supportive of longs for DX. Of particular interest is 6A (AUD). The commercials are more short this market than they have been in over 3 years. This is a very bearish signal. I will be focusing on shorting AUD this week, as in my opinion, it has the greatest potential for a significant down move.
Have a great weekend.
Cycle Analysis - Dollar IndexI am SETUP to hunt long TRIGGERS in the DX this week based on the COT strategy.
So I thought I'd look, do cycles support the COT strategy looking for Longs?
It turns out, they do.
Decennial & Annual Predictable Zones (APZ's) supportive of up move to Early/Mid October
Intermarket analysis finds a striking 60.9% correlation to DX's current price action to that of the price action found in 1991. Based on the intermarket analysis, we expect a major cyclical low sometime around now.
The long term blend of the 51.5 month & 581 day cycles show a major cyclical low should be around the corner for DX.
The short term blend of the 20.6, 29.9 & 115.6 day cycle is supportive of longs until a short term cyclical high early-mid October.
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GBPUSD 1.32055 -0.08% SHORT MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS + DXYHELLO TRADERS
Hope everyone is doing great
📌 A look at The CABLE At the close of ASIA INTO THE LONDON, TO NY PM SESSION
* With a bullish run into Monday open today will be looking for some retracement.
* looking at the daily last week friday failed to take high wich is a sign of weakness on GU.
* even though the -OB is violated looking for a retracement.
* on the 4H looking for a bullish open to take ASIA high LQ.
* PO3
* Push higher before going for lower structures.
* looking for an aggressive move above out of the range to sweeep.
* and agressive in.
* this where I would look for entries short.
* Looking for the take of that ERL.
* with two possible OTE ( ASIA HIGHS, AND LONG TERM HIGH) , EXECUTION IS BASED ON RR & RISK MANAGEMENT.
* DXY 4H
- Will wait for the DXY to take ASIA lows and trade back in the range as a confirmation as well...
* BASED on the price action served next session...
* We will see what does the market dish.
🤷♂️😉🐻📉🐮📈
HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK.
SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS.
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE
SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
* ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤
LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!