DXY top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Dxylong
A ribbon of strength of the US dollarThe Strong Dollar: Can It Continue? --the short answer is YES!
"A trifecta of factors support the dollar, including the relatively strong performance of the U.S. economy, tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, and safe-haven buying. These are likely to remain intact into 2023."
INDEX:DXY
TVC:DXY
btc go down a few days so be care full dear tradersThis trading week’s economic and financial data will be crucial to crypto investors.
Lagarde and Powell to share their latest assessments of the economic and monetary policy situation on Tuesday.
Last week, the crypto market looked slightly bullish until the US Fed reserve announced its interest rate decision. The announcement of the rate increase by 75 basis points by the US Fed reserve caused huge trading volatility, as is usually the case. The rate increase also resulted in sell-offs in the traditional market.
However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) kept rising, hitting a 12-month high of 113.22. By the weekend, most US stock indices have dropped about five percentage points, almost hitting their June 2022 lows. Ethereum and most other altcoins also dropped prices, as in the traditional market.
The good news is that the price of the leading digital asset (Bitcoin, BTC) only dropped by a small amount. Initially, the Bitcoin price dropped to $18,153. However, it recovered and moved opposite the Dow Jones index (DOW30). It is remarkable that the highly volatile crypto and the US tech stock market, NASDAQ, weren’t hugely affected by the fed’s rate increase. Hence, investors may still regard Bitcoin as a store of value. However, in the coming weeks, Bitcoin’s price action will confirm this perspective.
ECB President and US Fed chair to release new statements
On Tuesday, September 27, 2022, Christine Largade (the European Central Bank, ECB President) and Jerome Powell (US Fed chief) will share their insights regarding the current monetary and economic policy situation. The insights from these two will be crucial as they will determine whether the EU, the US, or both are shifting their stance regarding interest rate policy.
Any announcement of a change in monetary and economic policies by either or both of these financial watchdogs to curb rising inflation will impact the financial markets (crypto and stock market). Another crucial data affecting the financial markets this week is the incoming orders for durable goods.
The US census bureau will publish this data by 2.30 pm (CET) on Tuesday, September 27, 2022. This data indicates the rise or decrease in the demand for industrial goods this past month. Analysts predict a reduction of 0.5 percentage points. Orders for durable goods dropped by 0.1 percent in July 2022.
It is important to note that each time data for the durable goods orders is higher than predicted, the US Dollar usually tends to be bullish. Conversely, when this data is lower than analysts’ prediction, the US Dollar usually drops, even if it is for a short period. Recently, a weakening US Dollar resulted in a surge in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, crypto market sentiment remains in “extreme fear” for over a week. As of September 26, the average crypto market sentiment measure, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, is at 21, with 25 being the limit for extreme fear. However, the crypto analytics firm, Santiment, noted that Bitcoin’s social dominance had reached a new peak in two months. Santiment further notes that this renewed interest could positively impact crypto’s top asset
Is DXY making a cup an handle pattern?So as for now we can see DXY is probably making cup and handle pattern but its inside strong support/resistances which can indicates if yes or not.
We can also see that is looking for his supply which can be another clue about bullish trend in monthly chart.
Also can explain my other post about USDMXN which is about to pullback in H-C-H pattern.
Even above behavior already explained I saw in CRSI that for now overbought which makes me doubt a little bit, so I hope it is just a 4th Elliott's wave in lower timeframe.
DXY chart pattern analysis TF 4hIt is a medium-term technical analysis for DXY in the fourth hour's time frame. It can be seen that bullish flags dominate the current chart. An expectation of higher earnings for the dollar may cause more losses in gold during the next few weeks.
However, DXY should not stay lower than 106, a key level for breaking down. While the significant resistance is 109, breaking this level will confirm an uptrend for the dollar following this chart analysis.
More pain ahead as the fed continues raising interest ratesThe Federal Reserve announced that it will raise its benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday afternoon in its latest attempt to quash inflation. Chair Jerome Powell gave an update update on the central bank’s economic outlook and forecast for future rate hikes.
“I believe 75 is the new 25 until something breaks, and nothing has broken yet,” Zox said. “The Fed is not anywhere close to a pause or a pivot. They are laser-focused on breaking inflation. A key question is what else might they break.”
— Michelle Fox
GBPUSD Unfinished QMHello everyone. Good day & I hope you all profit today.
From what I see in GBPUSD, a big void needs to be filled due to the US CPI release last time.
I will start to accumulate buy at the bottom (around 1.12-1.198) to 1.17-1.168.
This is due to the imbalance, which needs to be filled as it is unfair to the buyers.
I call this an unfinished QM setup because it should have a right shoulder and it does not have a proper fall. So the price had to come back at that point to fill the imbalance.
DXY - 20 years in a nutshell (Resistance vacuum ahead of now)The $index has been in a bullish continuation trend for over ten years now ever since that reversal Bullish bat pattern completion back in 2011 as an effort to recover USD and US economy from the 2008 recession.
We have witnessed some 6 year long price consolidation between 2016 and 2022 (Darvas Box 1) after the price made the first top of the box at 104 back in 2016. This consolidation has finally broken higher into a new zone (Darvas Box 2) this year in 2022.
Potential Prospects:
1- Historic 20 year data reveals that there is apparently no resistance between this current price (~111) and 120 price level, it is like a vacuum, nothing in between
2- 120 is the point of confluence between historic consolidation area and Darvas Box target
3- This target at 120 is invalid if weekly timeframe breaks lower than 104 before it hits 120. We shall then deem it a bearish reversal and not continuation, until that happens, this analysis is valid
4- If it breaks higher than 120, we will see about that later
Further evidence:
1- FEDs hawkish counter inflation policies
2- Recent Interest rate hike to 3.25% from 2.5% and further news for an increment to 5% in FOMC conference, as told by Jerome Powell (FED chairperson). Contributing to the continued strength of USD against other currencies
The DXY gameplan (through halloween)DXY has had quite the run and doesn't appear to be losing any steam. It just recently hit my July target level of 108 again... and this time I expect it to act as support as we gravitate towards Monthly R1, R2, and R3 levels. If I were to make a prediction as of today, it's that by Halloween (October 31) we will be knocking at 115.
While I don't know the actual path, crawling along this current trend line and having a major run up to 115 level would make the most sense to me. Markets move in waves, I do expect some down before a gigantic push to the top. Time will tell. Lose the trend line and perhaps the overall market gets a nice breather for a relief rally and we reassess.
Some interesting levels to note that are not quite as clear on my chart are Traditional Yearly R4 Pivot (111.1) and Yearly R5 Pivot (115.8). One of these could have a reaction as well. It will be important to watch price action as we get towards them for potential pullbacks.
Be safe out there!
The Monday Overview - DXY Gold SIlver Wheat Bonds BTC DAXAn overview of the markets I often cover. Dollar should pull back lifting just about everything, Wheat may have to retest 800, Bonds ABC continues to 120's, Dax (germany index) looks interesting at support and may be hinting at a larger bounce in world markets. Good luck!
Dollar will go higherI think here Everything is clear! it will continue movement to 112.2.
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Here i anticipated by price action, please do not consider investment advice, Because i'm not your official financial advisor. The author of this analysis does not accept liability for any loss or damage.
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