Dxynextmove
DXY -- BEARISH PRICE DIVERGENCE with consolidationWARNING: BEARISH PRICE DIVERGENCE
Higher Highs and higher Lows while price is consolidating
and RSI & CCI are making Lower Highs and Lower lows
Indicates reversal of DXY might be in the works, watchout . The DXY might collapse if it continues to consolidate so be on the lookout.
We still expect US Dollar Strength but it seems we are starting to run out of steam again on this particular rally.
Can we hold on and continue to rally ?
DXY -- 95.74 --Area of Resistance --Case for SHORTThe area around 95.74 has been an area of resistance for a while . This DXY seems strong enough with great economic news for US Economy, it should break it this time ? if it fails again then we go SHORT
STRICT WARNING: If and only if DXY fails to break 95.74 then we go short from here otherwise we remain LONG
DXY LONG --- Moment of truth ideaEverytime since US Dollar Index ( DXY) began its major uptrend on 15th February 2018, DXY has made :
Higher Lows followed by corresponding Higher Highs i.e
After every Higher Low its has rallied to take out the previous Higher High.
So what can we expect this time : All the fundamental factors still point US Dollar strength for a couple of more weeks ( 3 to 6 weeks ) and that implies weaker USD based currencies like EURUSD or GBPUSD , etc
NOTE: it means if this pattern is bound to repeat itself and the rally has not died then we should expect the DXY to rally and take out 97.00 Level before dropping again to a higher low . if the Trend is dead then expect DXY to drop and break the previous Higher LOW .
Assumptions for next 3 to 6 weeks, if the above pattern holds:
Stronger DXY = Long DXY = Short EURUSD , Short GBPUSD
LONGS ( BUY) :
--- DXY
--- USDJPY
--- USDCAD
--- USDCHF
SHORTS ( SELL):
--- EURUSD
--- GBPUSD
--- AUDUSD
DXY/Dollar Index Analysis For New Week 9.2.2018 {NFP WEEK}So here with the DXY (dollar) we have obviously seen very bullish movement. The dollar is very strong, I do not care what anybody says. The dollar is not weak.
That being said, I am still bullish with the dollar overall this week as we also seen a nice doji & rejection right off our zone this week. A lot of false movement for those who trade the dollar on smaller time frame to get more bears in the market, as on a smaller time frame the trend was broken. Many trades look to go bearish once that happens, but people never factor in the manipulation of the markets.
So, I am still bullish on the dollar, but obviously Friday with it being NFP week, the dollar could fall down so we will have to see what happens then. Overall, like I said, I am still bullish until otherwise. If NFP even breaks our zone/trend line, I still think it will be more or so manipulation to get bears in the market and then we will continue back upside.
DXY CYPHER OR HEAD AND SHOULDERS?DXY:
- As it is pulling back after a neckline break, but it also looks like a bias continues to form cypher pattern
- If the break up exceeds the neckline (95) then the odds are still bullish with the target returning to area 96 as a potential reversal zone of the formed cypher pattern.
- If it is unable to break above and break the low back above the previous low (94.93) then there is a possibility to continue the head and shoulders pattern with the target to area 93.
- Looking at the bullish divergence that is formed most likely the dollar index is still bullish
DXY POTENTIALLY TO SET BEARISH CYPHERCypher Pattern Rules:
- Point B is the Fibonacci retracement of point XA of 0.382 to 0.618
- Point C is an extension of XA of at least 1,272 or between 1,130 - 1,414
- Point D is the Fibonacci retracement of the XC point of 0.782
DXY has the potential to form a similar formation, with point B of 0.32 and point C a little longer at 1.667. DXY also managed to move up to form an uptrend channel after touching this year's low at 88.25 points, if DXY successfully maintains to move in the uptrend channel then there is a possibility that DXY will finish the pattern by touching 99-100. If this happens.
The key point is if the DXY slumps and exits the uptrend channel and continues to penetrate 88.25, the failed pattern is formed, meaning that as long as the pattern has not been formed, it will still be a lot of possibilities. But if the pattern is successfully formed until it is finished then it will be very helpful to project the next DXY trend, here the pattern formed is bearish cypher.
DXY Strength - But A Trendline In The Way?The last two weeks we have seen some bullish moves with the Dollar which broke the DXY out of a low range. However on a weekly chart, we can see it has now reached a descending trendline around the 93.00 level. Could this be a bit of a make or break move for the Dollar? With a break to the upside and push towards previous 2017 highs or a rejection and downside move to test 87.00 area.
Up Down Up DownThe Dollar Index has been stuck in this wedge pattern since the beginning of 2018. After a large fall from the 95.00 area it seems to have stalled and now deciding on whether to continue pushing down, or prove this wedge pattern is the bulls getting ready to go! Between 90.50 and 80.50 seem to be keen bounce areas for price to reverse so keep an eye for a a strong rejection / break of these levels...
US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) Medium TermMulti-day view: DXY price action contained in a multi-month bearish channel decelerating with new tops and lows, finally clearing the May 2016 lows. Current price action has so far stalled near the prior resistance area but I am likely to see a break of this area as there is a bullish divergence under play and momentum is supporting the view as well. So I am likely to see DXY visiting 38.2% retracement area (95.90) over the coming days or so.
Strategy: Buy on dips for a target to 95.90, stop below 91.66
What's in store for USD in Q2... time to choose our side!Firstly congratulations to those who took shorts on the previous idea (please see attached), very well done for clearing all targets on the handle.
We are rolling with the dollar holding 100.xx post FED - we need to keep in sync with the dollhair to make our next few months a lot easier and it will separate the men from the boys, having a crystal clear map will be invaluable.
OK so with that in mind, lets draw our maps moving forward;
As long as strong prints on the macro front continue, then as will Trump's Honeymoon be extended with tax cuts being tracked like a hawk by smart money. The initial knee jerk rally is over as markets have begun to demand more since Trumpcare fell through.. In any event, there are many doors still open, if not tax cuts then we have huge infrastructure and if all else fails there is always defence (or "attack").
What we now need to track is the pullback we find ourselves in... there is plenty of room either side here, what I aim to do by publishing this idea is to start the discussion and place for us here to track and put in context over the next Q and current leg.
Our options are as follows;
a. BUY above 102.xx -> TP 109.xx
b. SELL below 98.xx -> TP 92.xx
c. sidelined, waiting for things to become clearer
d. No idea