Dxyshort
Is the DXY dollar index ready for a correction ? H4 08.11.2024💸 Is the DXY dollar index ready for a correction ⁉️
Looking back to 2016 when Trump first became US President, the dollar index initially reacted with a sharp rise and then a prolonged fall. I wonder if history will repeat itself again or if the market will take his second presidency more calmly in the distance.
DXY formed a sellers' zone at 104.80-105.16, but the far resistance zone at 106 remains intact. It's not a sure thing that it will get there, but I keep the option in my head just in case. The priority for me is to fall from the nearest sellers' zone with the targets of 103.30 and lower to 102.30. I will specify in the process.
TVC:DXY
Waiting for the DXY correction H4. 17.10.2024 Waiting for the DXY correction
Ahead of the ECB meeting, the dollar index has reached a strong rotation level of 103.57 and the main question is whether there will be a reaction and correction downwards! There is also a spare resistance level at 104.20 and I do not rule out reaching it and then a serious correction to at least 102.28. There will definitely be volatility and it is important to watch the reaction through other currencies.
TVC:DXY
DXY Bullish again? rally from 102.600 back upOnce price mitigates and retests the daily demand zone I’ve marked out, I’ll be looking for the dollar (DXY) to trigger another bullish move within this point of interest (POI), potentially leading to a rally that could take out another all-time high (ATH).
Upon reaching this daily demand, I’ll focus on finding a lower time frame entry. As price pushes up, taking out the liquidity and filling the imbalance, I’ll be watching for potential short-term sell opportunities from the daily supply zone, which looks like a high-quality area.
Confluences for DXY Bullish Move:
Recent Bullish Momentum: Price has been strongly bullish.
Break of Structure (BOS): A clear BOS to the upside, leaving behind a demand zone.
Liquidity and Imbalance: Liquidity targets and imbalance above, providing room for a rally.
High-Quality Daily Demand: The daily demand zone is strong and has a good potential for a bullish push.
P.S. I wouldn’t be surprised if the daily supply also holds and causes a deep retracement, but we’ll see how the market reacts.
Have a great trading week guys!
Could this be the fall of the Dollar???The dollar is about to break the last significant structure on the monthly time frame. We have seen the dollar dropping over the last few months after its reaction from the last swing high.
Market structure shows price creating lower lows and lower highs which are confirmed by endless BOS. We can see a clear 11min OB has been left from the last low that price created once it tapped into the 18h demand which may allow us a buying opportunity to buy the dollar up to the 1h supply where we will continue to see it fall to it's untimely demise.
previous price action from this 18H however, didn't create much movement despite the fact it also took ASL liquidity possibly suggesting buying power in the market has no strength what so ever. We have to also consider the possibility price may not even be able to push back up but rather fall targeting the Asian lows as this would be considered a magnet for price movement.
#DXY 4H On the 4-hour chart (4H) of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), the price is currently in a downtrend, indicating a strong sell opportunity.
Sell Levels: 101.200 - 101.500
The price has reached a potential selling zone between 101.200 and 101.500, which is acting as a resistance range in the current bearish trend. This is a strategic area to consider short positions as the market may struggle to break above this level.
Target Level: 99.500
The expected downside target for this move is around 99.500, a key support area where the price might find some buying interest or consolidation after the bearish move.
Key Factors:
Downtrend: Lower highs and lower lows dominate the price action.
Resistance: The price faces strong selling pressure near 101.200-101.500.
Momentum: Indicators like RSI and moving averages suggest the trend is firmly bearish, with room to fall toward the 99.500 support.
Trading Strategy:
Entry: Look for short entries near the 101.200-101.500 range.
Target: Aim for the 99.500 level as the profit target.
Stop-loss: Consider placing a stop-loss above 101.500 to manage risk effectively.
This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio in line with the ongoing downtrend.
Still Bearish on DXYDXY can see some correction to the upside and reach 102.5 or even climb up to 103.5 before September 18, 2024, which, most probably we'll see the first rate cut after a long time.
So be patient and wait for this week's NFP.
Check out my post on June 11 to see how DXY followed our yellow scenario. 😉
$DXY | SilverEdge Insights |Technical Confluences:
Price action is in Oversold conditions in the Daily and Weekly Timeframe. Likely to see some consolidation of positioning here.
Price action broke out of an Upward Sloping Parallel Channel and cleared itself out of the that Interest Zone too. Likely will see a test to re-enter that Channel due to Oversold conditions.
Elliot wave count shows it is trying to compete Wave C (expected target would be to 71% Fibo Extension levels - possible to test the 100% Fibo level)
A new Downward Sloping Parallel Channel is in play now and Price action needs to see it break the mid of the Channel to see a substantial move downwards
Fundamental Confluences:
With the expected cuts, market started unwinding their long USD positions and it is reflected in the TVC:DXY
The extent of Wave C will really depend on how quick and reactive is the FED in cutting rates (the higher chances of 50bps cuts; the likelier we will see USD get sold.
Building into next week, we are likely to see some traders cover their short USD positions as they size down before NFP data.
However, if there is any gyration on the geopolitical front or US elections, it is possible to see the TVC:DXY reverse back to the top of the Downward Sloping Parallel Channel and top out at the Interest Zone area again
DXY is under 102.00 what now?(08/20/2024)DXY finally hit our target under the 102.00 zone.
Since 1 August, DXY has dropped continuously. Right now we are looking for a reversal pattern near the 101.4-101.8 zone.
our view has been negated if the price breaks below the 100.650.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
DXY is moving lower**Monthly Chart**
DXY monthly candle closed as bullish. This month's candle (still active) reached the supply zone last week around the 106 level and bounced lower from it.
Note: I don’t trade DXY but I use it as an indication when analyzing other currency pairs linked to USD.
**Weekly Chart**
Last week's candle closed as a bearish engulfing suggesting a reverse trend lower at least to test the demand zone around the 104 level and then moving lower to the 103 level.
**Daily Chart**
This week, DXY is expected to have a corrective wave structure and consolidate before continuing the downward movement. There will be a release of monthly and yearly CPI on Thursday which can provide some strength to USD.