Still looking to short DollarThe dollar is experiencing fundamental weakness due to its data, with yuan transactions surpassing it for the first time. The GDP was worse than anticipated, causing concerns of an impending recession. Today's core PCE data, a crucial inflation indicator, could potentially alter the trajectory of the dollar, therefore, be cautious.
From a technical standpoint, I am searching for a trend rejection.
Dxyshort!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When can the DXY index break the Descending Channel❗️❓The DXY index has been moving in the descending channel for more than 1 month.📆
DXY seems to have formed the Double Three Correction structure(WXY) in the middle of the descending channel during the last two weeks.
I expect the end of wave Y to finish near the middle line of the descending channel and the🟢 support zone($ 101.3-$ 100.82) 🟢, and again DXY will attack the upper line of the descending channel for the 5️⃣fifth time5️⃣ and break the descending channel.
U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 2-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
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Has The U.S. Dollar DXY Peaked In 2023?After steadily climbing throughout 2021, the DXY saw a solid start to 2022. The US Dollar Index rallied from a low point of 94.63 in mid-January to a 20-year high of just over 114 in late September.
DXY has experienced a significant drop since the publication of cooler-than-expected inflation data. Expectations of slower rate hikes from the Fed, and a lower potential terminal rate for US interest rates, have resulted in a repositioned dollar.
I believe the USD will weaken further in 2023, as its significant overvaluation (based on the real effective exchange rate (REER)) can no longer be supported, once the Fed stops hiking, global growth shows signs of toughing and market volatility comes down.
Technically, the dollar index DXY on the monthly timeframe closed below the 21-EMA for the first time since Aug. 2021, below the critical resistance represented in 102.80 level. Next downside target: 99.35 support level. (on the medium-to-long term)
Bearish 3 Drive Pattern for DXYgreetings fellas, us dollar index in bearish 3 drive pattern and want to take sell side liquidity once again and reach to 99.84 zone.
btw, in the second drive we seen 3 drive in 4h timeframe, maybe in third drive we will seen this pattern again but daily timeframe.
after that i expect bullish spike candle to reach TVC:DXY 103.4.
New opportunity to add in my dollar positionAfter breaking through the support zone, a retest occurred, accompanied by a 61% Fibonacci retracement.
Thursday's GDP data will be the deciding factor for market movement,
We can anticipate two potential outcomes:
1. If the GDP exceeds expectations, investors may feel more secure, and as a result, dollar prices may not increase significantly.
2. A worse-than-expected GDP could trigger fears of a potential recession, leading to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This increase in demand could drive up the price of gold and weaken the dollar significantly.
DXY: Event influence!Hello traders, I have some USD related information to share with you ♥
US Dollar's position as the primary global reserve currency is being challenged
The US Dollar's share of the global market has decreased from 71 percent to 59 percent over the last two decades and could shrink even further in the future. The primary victim in this scenario is the United States, as currency usage in global trade is a zero-sum game. Each time a Yuan, real, or Rupee is exchanged on the global market, a Dollar is not. If credible alternatives gain steam, the dominance of America in the global market will be compromised.
DXY DAILY CHART - KEYLEVELS TO WATCHDXY for me at this point is neutral, im waiting for a broken trend or new lows for more ideas and targets.
More DXY will stay here, more the trust in other valutes willl be decreased.
So if here will be a consolidation zone, we will see USD more HIGHER , but for this, we need to a broken daily trend.
Dont be fomo at this point.
The inevitable collapseDXY looks to be at a reversal point, or is it? This is why I love looking at a ticker in relation to another by using the / symbol. The way it works is ( ticker youre interested in )/( in relation to another ticker ) . For this instance we will look at both DXY/SPY and SPY/DXY. Typically SPY and DXY do not move in correlation, in fact they move in the opposite directions. When the dollar is strong, stocks fall as more people invest in the dollar as opposed to stocks. In the contrary when more people are investing in stocks, there is less money being put into the dollar.
First lets look at only the DXY chart.
Here we are looking at the weekly chart of the dollar. Although we are still in a downtrend, with the 9,21 and 50 ema stacking to the downside, there seems to be the possibility of a double bottom occurring at a previous support level of 101. By looking just at this chart, the dollar looks primed for a reversal. The question is how strong of a reversal will it be?
Next lets look at the DXY/SPY chart.
This chart is a much different story and shows tremendous weakness in the dollar in comparison to stocks. We have a head and shoulders with the last reject off of the 200ma. The candles are following the downwards momentum along the ema with the continuing lows of the MACD and RSI.
Last, lets look at SPY/DXY
As SPY and the dollar are inversely correlated its no wonder that this chart is showing significant strength in SPY. We have an inverse head and shoulders with the 9,21, and 50 ema going upwards also followed with the upwards trajectory of MACD and RSI. If there is a break of the resistance line, I am even more than certain we are on our way to another bull run. I know the thought of a bull run sounds insane with so much talk about a recession but do you think the market wont be prepared for a massive short squeeze as everyone and their mothers have gone short in anticipation of a killer recession? Remember, the market never does what the masses want it to do.
TLDR: DXY looks poised for a reversal but comparing DXY to SPY by looking at DXY/SPY and SPY/DXY shows significant weakness in the dollar in comparison to stocks. DXY and SPY are inversely correlated. All charts combined shows we may have a slight bounce in the dollar, but there is more downside still to come.
DXY - Long term | Market outlookInvestors focus on further actions of the US Federal Reserve in the field of monetary policy. Most experts believe that in May, the regulator will raise the interest rate above 5.0%, after which it will keep it at this level, and by the end of the year, it may begin to reduce the cost of borrowing again. Under the conditions, the comments of American officials are of particular interest. Thus, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Atlanta, Rafael Bostic, noted that it is necessary to increase the rate again, after which it is worth stopping and assessing how quickly inflation returns to the target levels. The official added that the US economy remains strong, price increases are high, and there is a lot of work to be done in the fight against it. St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, in an interview with Reuters, confirmed that monetary policy tightening could continue amid the release of recent economic data, as inflation is not declining and economic recovery is slow.
DXYCurrently, tracking the USDX (US Dollar Index) has become more enjoyable than ever before. Upon further examination, I have come to the conclusion that the DXY has reached its peak and is now in a phase of aggressive decline, beginning from the level of supply that I have identified, or potentially even worse from the fair value gap (FVG). I will continue to keep you updated on any changes regarding this matter.
DXY - Tool to assess Risk on/ Risk off scenariosHi guys. Welcome to my TA analysis on the dollar index. ALot of talk has been going on about whether or not we are in a bull market for bitcoin and if equities will rally further or not. In order to assess or determine if its likely that we are, the dollar is used by many analysts to gauge at what the sentiment is, whether "RISK ON" or "RISK OFF". As such i also have come to analyze and use DXY as such a tool.
RISK ON = When dollar is decreasing in price, other assets tend to go up. ( Hence we hear people mention "oh, the dollar is inversely related to stocks, crypto)
RISK OFF = sentiment is scared to invest and people flock to the safety of cash/dollar, Increasing the value of the dollar and prices of other assets decrease in price
With that lets look into what i see in the charts for DXY.
This analysis is done on the 2 day timeframe.
I've zoomed out to include about 17 years of data.
So PRICE ACTION
As you can see its interacting with the Red line that is drawn on chart. This is the 200 Day Moving Average. If you look left at all the examples i put up, everytime price action goes down we are below this line for atleast 100 days to as long as couple of years. WE also decline between 2% to as much as 20%.
The 2 recent times, we were under it for 380 days and 488 days with price dropping further down. Ofcourse our current price action doesnt have to do this but because it occured previously it is not out of the question.
At the least expect sideways action, which is also not a bad thing for RISK ON mentality.
BUT as of now we have CONFIRMED below the 200 dma on the 2 day timeframe. I expect the dollar to drop more in the intermediate to longer term of atleast 3 months to a 1 year even. The longer the dollar stays below, the stronger RISK ON mentality gets. This would validate the recent Crypto uptrend and may push equities, housing and others up too.
To further support my thesis, check out the 2 indicators i put up
1. RSI - I believe we have further sell off on the RSI and im expecting it to do below the 20 level, as it did in the examples i circled with white. Also notice the white horizontal resistance line i drew. As long as we stay below here, it validates my thesis of dollar staying down. Im expecting atleast 1 touch point near or below the 20 level. RSI is a close indicator of price action, when it points down, price usually follows and vice versa.
2. ADX and DI - Ths tracks momentum. As highlighted red line is crossing up, indicating bearish momentum to pick up. When price action is below the 200 dma and a bearish cross occurs we usually go down in price.
CONCLUSION: With everything mentioned, in my opinion i believe DXY to go down further in price, it staying in a downtrend for atleast 3 months to 1 year. Supporting the idea that maybe we are in the beginning stages of a crypto bull market and we may see equities rally more.
Thanks for tuning in. Hope this helped. If you like the content, please BOOST, COMMENT and FOLLOW. Check out my other charts on DXY. If you liked what you read, i also do potential buy/sell analysis on stock/ cryptos.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Everything expressed in my posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading please do manage your risk and protect yourselves with stop losses.
2023 tradingdesk for the dollarHi Traders.
From now i will have one main idea, and all the ideas as we reach cycle targets for the year will be updated in the thread.
Fallow, like so you dont miss the updates.
I dont trade short term, keep in mind my ideas are longer term, and its boring.
We wait for the cycles to bottom and we wait once in the trade for the trade to mature.