Dxyshort!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Short on Dollar Index- All Analysis were done on LTF... you can zoom into 1 Min timeframe to see the analysis
- Analysis were based on the smart money and ICT
- Since trading view does not allow to publish less than 15 min time frame, I tried to do it in the 15 min (Scalp is not accepted by trading view ;))
Nasdaq100 in the face of a major resistanceNASDAQ100 index is facing a strong resistance around 12,200 (represented in the 50-EMA) after rebounding from the broader weekly downward channel's lower boundary.
A confirmed breakout of the mentioned static resistance, will open the door for further +5.61% bounce (685 points) throughout the week to 12,885 level.
DXY and US10Y have likely topped out in the near termBased on fundamentals,
1. Recession scare may cause FED to stop hiking interest rates rapidly which has negative effect on Dollar.
2. US 10 Year Bond Yields (US10Y) have also topped out in near term..
Based on technical patterns, we see
1. Double top with negative RSI divergence. See BTCUSD idea which brought bitcoin from 69000$ to 30000$ in related idea linked below.
2. We have a bearish pennant in play now
3. High Correlation with US10Y and similar chart formation as seen below.
DXY - PARABOLIC MOVES ARE NOT SUSTAINABLEDXY - PARABOLIC MOVES ARE NOT SUSTAINABLE
DXY has once again move upside very sharply. This time it has created another bearish divergence after parabolic moves. Remember parabolic moves are not sustainable.
We are expecting it will come down to 103 level before any further upside to test its breakout region.
What do you think of the idea?
DXYA more in depth analysis of the coming correction of the move up from $88-$109.50 my predicted recent price peak IH&S pattern.
An obvious sell off taking place on the Daily TF which will likely hit 50 ema Daily TF target around $104 to complete the HTF A wave in the 1st abc down. Then up into HTF B wave before 5 down into wave C around $98. Crypto should F**king love this move. And our bags are packed!
DXY US Dollar SELLIt's beyond me why anyone is chasing the US Dollar up here with the reckless nature of the US Federal Reserve and Government's fiscal house. $30,500,000,000,000.00 debt and ballooning deficits as far as the eye can see. The US Dollar will collapse and we will have a Great Depression 2 in my lifetime. Long term trend line is around 98, once that level breaks, look out below! Last time the DXY was this high was in 2002, 20 years ago when USA had around $5t in debt and running significantly smaller deficits, before that was 1985. Take the road less traveled and short DXY/ buy GOLD
DXY Potential Short Soon!Happy Tuesday Traders, Investors & Gamblers 😃
Today I want to talk about the U.S. Dollar Index . As mentioned in a previous post a couple of weeks ago, DXY is currently at a very strong resistance in a 15 year trend visible on the monthly chart here.
1D U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
4H U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Here below I left it all in the charts for you, the key resistance levels and the support levels that are important to confirm a downtrend.
1D U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
4H U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
I would like to add that this is only for educational purpose and in no way a guarantee that it will play out this way, nor is this or are any of my posts financial advise.
As always, A BIG THANK YOU for stopping by, I hope you liked my post! If you did, please take a second to drop a like or comment, every engagement puts a smile on my face, but also helps me to get my ideas out to many more of you guys! 😃🙏
Happy Trading ✌♥📈
The USD is going to zero relative to BitcoinEarly today I was talking with a good trader friend, whom I respect very much, about Bitcoin. I said that "the U.S. dollar is going to zero relative to Bitcoin". My statement seemed to have ruffled his feathers quite a bit and he replied in a manner that suggested I was ludicrous for thinking that Bitcoin could ever be more valuable than the dollar, or that the dollar could ever go to zero.
Interestingly, though, the fact is that mathematically speaking, the U.S. dollar has already effectively gone to zero relative to Bitcoin over the past decade, as the above chart shows.
The equation 1 over BTCUSD is mathematically the same as USD/BTC or the relative value of the USD to BTC. As the chart shows, the USD is approaching zero relative to Bitcoin, and despite the "crypto winter" the trend is still holding up.
Notice, interestingly that the 20 EMA is resisting further declines in the relative value. While this single metric may not indicate the absolute bottom is in for Bitcoin, it is a fact that the USD/BTC equation suggests, to a higher degree of mathematical certainty, that the US dollar has already and will continue to move ever closer to zero relative to the value of Bitcoin. It's hard for people who do not understand logarithmic growth and decay to look at the Bitcoin chart and see anything but a shattered bubble right now (in 2022). I have seen multiple reputable traders try to impose a measured move on Bitcoin invalidly projecting it into negative numbers. Meanwhile, the trend is holding up, and between the US dollar and Bitcoin, over the long term, the logarithmic decay will likely continue for the U.S. dollar as measured relative to Bitcoin.
Indeed, the fact that the value of the dollar is going to zero on a relative basis is nothing new. This very fact is why we almost always have some degree of inflation, and very rarely deflation. With each new dollar printed the previously printed dollars are worth less. The chart below shows the downward movement of the value of the U.S. dollar toward zero relative to its past value. At some points in history, such as when the Federal Reserve moved away from the gold standard and when it began quantitative easing, the dollar's move toward zero has accelerated. This is logarithmic decay.
While the U.S. dollar is and always has been moving toward zero relative to its past value, it has not been until the past decade or so that a decentralized cryptocurrency using blockchain technology has come into existence as a means to hedge the dollar's decline. Anyone who does not hold any Bitcoin in their portfolio whatsoever as a long-term investment will regret it in the decades to come. Right now Bitcoin is on sale because the Federal Reserve has been reducing the money supply to curve inflation and temporarily giving the dollar a relative bump. This is a mere hiccup in the broader trend of the log curve growth in Bitcoin relative to the USD.
It's simple math and simple economics. Supply and demand dictate price. While the Federal Reserve will eventually restart the printing press and print limitless more U.S. dollars, the number of new Bitcoin coming into existence will be much less and is ultimately finite. Both Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar are fiats in the sense that the actual asset does not have inherent worth, both are merely valuable so long as people's faith in the underpinnings of the asset remains. While the U.S. dollar's status as the reserve currency diminishes over time, Bitcoin's adoption continues to grow.
Only time will tell which currency will be a better store of value over time, but the charts and the basics of economics make clear that a finite asset like Bitcoin inevitably is a better means of storing wealth than holding cash. So long as the money supply continues to grow exponentially, the value of the dollar will follow a logarithmic decay.
To have all your eggs in one basket, regardless of which basket, will likely prove a bad decision over the long term.
DXY more room for up before short sell DXY or dollar index had saw a nice bullish momentum for the upside, and that because of the inflation and the delta between dollar fed fund rate and the other foreign currencies rates.
last week a ECB member told the press that the ECB will start to raise rates gradually this year to fight against inflation, this will narrow the gap between interest rates.
DXY can push more up for this moment to 110.00 level before facing a major threshold where United States Dollar will be less attractive in comparison to other currencies.
Did the Dollar Index Just Top?This is a chart of the U.S. dollar currency index with Fibonacci Retracement levels applied.
These Fibonacci levels take the entire history of the dollar index into account as they were drawn from the all-time high in 1985 to the all-time low in 2008.
On the bottom is the monthly RSI. It is extremely rare for an asset to create bearish divergence on a timeframe as high as the monthly chart, as the dollar index just did at the close of June!
Specifically, the dollar index closed June with a higher price than it closed in April but with a lower RSI. When price continues to move higher but the RSI moves lower this is a bearish divergence, and it usually indicates a reversal especially when the divergence occurs at overbought RSI levels. Bearish divergences have similarly been occurring on the weekly timeframes for the dollar index. These divergences are used by experienced traders as sell signals.
Neither the commodity charts nor the Eurodollar Futures are confirming the dollar index's continued move higher.
With the economy slowing rapidly, there's little reason to believe that the Fed will become any MORE aggressive than it already is. If the Fed will not get any more aggressive than is already priced in, the dollar index should not go any higher.
While anything can happen, now that the dollar index has even reached a Fibonacci level, it seems quite likely that a major top is underway.
Can DXY break this level???Hi guys.
DXY broke its high, but it meet the top line of the wedge now and it will be hard to break that.
Hard to say, But I think it will push DXY lower again to touch the bottom line of the wedge.
So, I am bearish on DXY again and will short USDJPY, USDCAD and USDCHF.
Take care fellas.
Trade safe.