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DXY Daily TA Cautiously BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% DXY, 90% Cash. * DEATH CROSS WATCH . Final US Q3 GDP estimate was +3.2%, compared to a decline of -0.6% in Q2 , and was primarily led by upward revisions to exports, nonresidential fixed investments (IP and equipment) and consumer spending. The latest GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate was 3.7% on 10/23 , with the next estimate due on 01/03/23. Russia announced a ban of oil sales to any countries or companies abiding by the $60 price-cap imposed by the G-7 (+ Australia) . North Korea sent 5 reconnaissance drones into South Korea and SK failed to hit any of them in their defensive counter-assault . Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda expressed that the latest BOJ move to allow their 10-year bond yield to rise to 0.5% from 0.25% shouldn't be viewed as an "exit" from their ultra-loose monetary policy and that they maintain a 2% inflation target , although investors are now betting on a higher likelihood of a departure from negative interest rates come next April when Kuroda's second 5-year term comes to end. The Treasury General Account and Reverse Repos seemed to have found a short-term floor and are expected to continue rising, which poses a threat to the Fed balance sheet but a bullish catalyst for US Treasurys, and lesser so for DXY. A continually rising Fed funds rate which is expected to top out at 5.1%-5.2% at the moment also acts as a bearish catalyst for Risk-On markets and bullish for US Treasurys, and lesser so to DXY. A main reason why DXY has been going down recently is due to a bounce in EURUSD, JPYUSD and GBPUSD; along with inflation coming down and a terminal Fed funds rate being anticipated in 2023. Energy, US Equity Futures, DXY, Short-Term US Treasurys, VIX, HSI, N100, EURUSD, JPYUSD, GBPUSD and CNYUSD are up. US Equities, Cryptos, Long-Term US Treasurys, Metals, Agriculture and NI225 are down. Key Upcoming Dates: Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP Estimate 01/03; S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 01/03; FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 01/04; December US Employment Situation at 830am 01/06. * Price is currently trending sideways at ~$104 as it nears a retest of the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support for the first time since February 2022. The 50MA is currently trending down at $107 as it approaches a seemingly inevitable Death Cross if it is to cross below the 200MA at $106. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $103.85, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI continues to trend sideways as it tests 39.43 resistance for the ninth consecutive session. Stochastic remains bearish but is on the verge of crossing over bullish just below 86.26 resistance. MACD remains bullish and is currently testing -0.832 resistance with no sign of peak formation at the moment. ADX continues to trend sideways at ~31 for the tenth consecutive session as Price continues to trend in a tight range for the same amount of time as it forms a Symmetrical Triangle, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to breakout here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$108 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $105.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA Neutral BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% DXY, 60% Cash. * FOMC WATCH . US November CPI was estimated to come in at 0.3% but instead came in at 0.1% , compared to October's 0.4% it's fair to say that it eased a bit. Meanwhile Core CPI rose 0.2% in November compared to 0.3% in October. The last FOMC rate hike is expected to be announced tomorrow, though there is still a chance for another 75bps rate hike, the majority of speculators are anticipating 50bps. If they go with 50bps, it's reasonable to expect volatility tomorrow followed by further downside to DXY; however, if they go with 75bps, DXY should see a bit of a reversal in the short/medium-term. In a surprising move which is likely due to national security interests, China banned exports of their Loongson military grade processors to Russia ; Russia had apparently been testing them for a while as opposed to Intel and AMD processors due to Western sanctions. The USA is preparing to send their Patriot Air Defense system to Ukraine in response to Russia continuing to bombard key energy infrastructure as Ukraine approaches their coldest parts of winter. DXY, Cryptos, US Equities, US Equity Futures, JPYUSD, HSI, NI225, N100 and Short-Term US Treasurys are up. While Commodities, GBPUSD, EURUSD, CNYUSD, Long-Term US Treasurys and VIX are down. Key Upcoming Dates: Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate 12/15; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price is currently attempting to bounce here at $104.06 before retesting the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support for the first time since February 2022. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $105.27, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 34, the next resistance is at 39.43 and the next support at 23.34. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 29.40 support. MACD remains bullish and is on the verge of crossing over bearish as it trends sideways at -1.21 support; if it breaks below this support level it would be a bearish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 33 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$105.80 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $105.80.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% DXY, 95% Cash. * Oil tankers are reportedly beginning to jam up the Black Sea with 28 tankers waiting to be checked for having proper insurance by Turkish officials . This will likely put upward pressure on the price of oil in the near/medium term. Investors appear to be anticipating a 50bps rate hike by the FOMC on 12/14, which will be their last rate hike announcement until February 1st 2023. Interestingly, investors appear to be equating a slowing in rate hike increases with a lowering of the terminal FFR, which is unlikely to be true; Federal Reserve staff/member consensus is currently projecting a 5%-5.5% terminal funds rate to be achieved by mid-2023, the FFR is currently at 3.75%-4%. So going forward, 50bps on 12/14/22 brings it to 4.25%-4.5%, another hypothetical 50bps on 02/01/23 would bring it to 4.75%-5%, another hypothetical 25bps on 03/16/23 would bring it to 5%-5.25% and then a last hypothetical 25bps on 05/04/23 would bring it to 5.25%-5.5%. This all assumes that Russia doesn't continue to escalate the war and that supply chains reach a newfound stability/order; a somewhat unrealistic assumption at the moment. US Equities, US Equity Futures, US Treasurys, Cryptos, Metals, Natural Gas, Agriculture, EURUSD, GBPUSD, CNYUSD, HSI, N100 are up. DXY, VIX, JPYUSD, NI225 and Oil are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US November PPI 830am EST 12/09; US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price is currently trending down at $104.80 after being rejected by the 200MA at ~$105.80 as resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at ~$105.80, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 36 after being rejected by 39 resistance for the third time since 11/21/22, the next support (minor) is at 23.34. Stochastic remains bullish and is on the verge of crossing over bearish as it trends down at 58 after getting rejected by 67 resistance, if it falls below 56 it would be a bearish crossover; the next support is at 45.65. MACD remains barely bullish for a second consecutive day as it trends sideways just below -1.21 support. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 31 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here and reestablish support at the 200MA (~$105.80) , the next likely target is a retest of $108 resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from May 2021 as support for the first time since February 2022 which would coincide with $103 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $105.80 .
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% DXY, 95% Cash. *Cryptos and Commodities markets are signaling a bullish open to a week of mute economic data before CPI on 12/13 and the last FFR hike announcement of 2022 on 12/14. More volatility is to be expected with increased supply chain disruptions due to reduced exports from China weighing on Big Tech ( Apple in particular ). While certain major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai are loosening Covid restrictions in effort to quell protests and reinvigorate dampening domestic demand. A price cap imposed by the G7 + Australia on Russian oil took effect today, the $60/barrel price cap applies to any third-party countries who intend to use G7 or EU tankers, insurance companies or credit institutions to ship Russian oil . Russia responded by saying they would cut production while OPEC+ reiterated their commitment to a 2m output reduction until 2023 . This will likely push the price of oil higher. Ukraine has also mentioned that Russia hasn't launched any large missile offensives in the past two weeks and that they are likely gearing up for another significant strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in attempt to break Ukrainian citizens down during the winter. Commodities, Cryptos, US Treasurys, HSI, CNYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are up. DXY, US Equity Futures, N100, NI225 and JPYUSD are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US November PPI 830am EST 12/09; US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price has broken below the 200MA at $105.57 as support and is currently trending down at $104.22 as it approaches $103.15 support which coincides with the uptrend line from May 2021. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $106.83, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 32, the next support is at 23.34. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down slightly at -1.45 as it breaks below -1.21, the next support is at -1.66. ADX is currently trending up at 30 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$105.60 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely test $103.15 support which would coincide with the uptrend line from May 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $105.60.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
The Sellers Just Took The Dollar Lower The Dollar Index(DXY) reached new lows last week. Following the new low a few major currencies soared bullishly(AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, and EURUSD) creating new highs which can be of great benefit to major currency pair traders this month. Going into the week the dollar could pullback to 105.750 before decreasing again creating a new low. This could be a trend trading play for short-term swing traders the next couple of weeks. Currencies To Watch Australian Dollar/United States Dollar (AUDUSD) , New Zealand Dollar/United States Dollar (NZDUSD) , Great Britain Pound/United States Dollar (GBPUSD) , European Euro/United States Dollar (EURUSD) if price pulls back for continued buys. A bearish long-term sell-off of $13.50 could become a 2023 target. Welp, my trading friends, I hope you enjoyed the analysis. Follow me for updates and more. Safe trading this week. Shaquan
TVC:DXYShort
by ShaquanLopez