A bearish look on the dollar indexThe Dollar Index is still under a bearish outlook in the coming week, as it has a downtrend that it may test for the third time in a row, and if it fails to breach it, it may return to the 102-103 levels.
What do you think, does the dollar complete its downward trend? Or will the dollar have another opinion?
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DXY v/s Bitcoin All Time High and Bottom Analysis#DXY Technical Analysis:-
$US Dollar Currency Index Currently trading at $107
In Simple way as per Past Performance $DXY inverse Proportional to #Bitcoin
In This Chart Detail Explanation:-
December 2016 #DXY Price was $103 ( Which was ATH ) that time Bitcoin Price was $750
After one year $DXY dumped badly and Hit $88 within one year and This time $Bitcoin Hit New All Time High $19900
After Again $DXY Pumped and Hit $103 in 2020 so Again Bitcoin Crashed Badly and Hit again Low of Bear Market $3200-$3800
After then Bitcoin Found bottom in 2029-2020 $DXY trend was changed and Hit again low around $89 that was Last year and $Bitcoin Hit New All Time high $69000
But Currently $DXY breakout $103 resistance and Hit $114 which was ATH of Dollar currency Index.
And Currently Bitcoin Trading around $15500-$16600
So In one Line :- We are Very Near of $Bitcoin Low / Bottom.
So Ignore all Negative News and Articles/Media and Buy Bitcoin and Hold Till December 2025
IMO August 2024 - December 2025 will Be bottom of $DXY and This is ATH of Bitcoin.
Too much research in this Analysis so Please Like and share and Appreciate guys.
Thank you.
Long Term DXY Trend [Possible bottom for Crypto and the stocks?]This long term channel on DXY on the monthly channel shows DXY at key resistance and currently struggling on resistance and the top of the channel. Usually when DXY goes down, cryptocurrencies and stocks will do the opposite since traders are risking more and not being in cash, this can potentially be a good bull market for 2024.
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Contraction Plotter Indicator:
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Bitcoin BTC potentially approaching BOTTOMTo Start, I used the basis of this chart from someone who posted it in the TV chat, I do not remember whose it was!
Point 1 - We have seen BTC go through 2 major waves of reaching 'peaks'. I believe we are now entering the 3rd major wave.
In the previous two waves, it has taken typically a year (give or take a few weeks) for BTC to reach bottom from its peak. We are now approaching just over a year since its last peak in November 21.
We have then seen it take almost exactly two years from the bottom to being at level with its previous peak and then going on to increase past that level.
Point 2 - We know that over the past 10 years, BTC has been one of the best performing asset and when it has performed the worst, the dollar has been strong. Over the past couple years we have seen the dollar build strength, reaching a high we haven't seen since 2002. On September 28th we saw the DXY begin to drop from this high and directly on this date we saw BTC see a small growth. The two charts are now directly corresponding, I can see an area of resistance where the DXY may recover slightly before dropping again and if this happens BTC will fall again to the bottom and then begin its upward path. This could take a couple of weeks, potentially into December.
Point 3 - We also know that in the last two waves, the Halving event has taken place 17 months on from the bottom on the last two occasions. The next event is April 2024, and coincidentally, 17 months prior takes us to December 2022.
DXY Global Vision (Elliott Waves Analysis) TIME TO FALL Hello friends.
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Everything on the chart.
The dollar index seems to have gone to work out the divers on the weekly TF and form a long-term correction.
Within wave (A), the decline in the index perfectly harmonizes with the market "seasonality" and there is a potential for the index to decline, which means that the markets will grow ~ until spring 2023.
A decrease in the $ index means that the value of $ is declining and investors will try to find a safer place for their capital, that is, shift the currency into any other assets, whether it be gold, stocks or bitcoin.
Of course, the true extremum points can only be clearly identified after the fact, so I would not flatter myself with the rapid vertical growth of markets from the current ones, but the general trend and action plan from my point of view looks exactly like this.
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dxy #1dxy is at a nice turning point after a nice bearish push to end the week dxy tries to climb back up on market open
upside right now is a bit limited unless i see a break above 107.500
failing to break the daily pivot at the moment and also opening below a weekly pivot im currently looking for another bearish push down for dxy which should pump gold a bit
How did the market react to soft US inflation? Huge, unexpected moves occurred across several markets after the US inflation report for October was released last Thursday. For those that missed the news, US inflation came in softer-than-expected at 7.7% (vs. 8.0% expected, and down from 8.2% in the previous month) suggesting that the US Federal Reserve's policy tightening has started to work its magic, and they might be able to start slowing the pace of its hikes moving forward. The market is firming toward a 50-basis-points rate hike from the US Fed in November now, after four consecutive 75-basis-points rate hikes. This is a scenario that some assets have rejoiced, and others lamented.
Confidence in the US dollar, as the only buy, has finally shown signs of wavering after the inflation print. The upside potential for the US dollar may be muted moving forward but we might have to wait until we see a sustainable trend in inflation cooling. Even so, DXY experienced its worst week since March 2020, falling almost 4% against a basket of its trading partners last week. More interestingly, the DXY fell -2.1% on Thursday alone, its largest daily loss in 13 years.
The forex pair that gained the most against the US dollar was the Japanese yen, up more than 5% on the week, and now trading comfortably below 140. The pound, euro, Aussie dollar, and NZ dollar all gained between 4% and 3% at the same time.
With the weakening US dollar, gold and silver climbed 5.4% to $1,770 per ounce (3-month high) and 4.1% to $21.7 per ounce (5-month high), respectively on the weekly timeframe.
Moving in line with metals, and against the US dollar, US stocks experienced a significant rally on Thursday and Friday. Thursday’s rally was its largest in 2 years with the tech heavy Nasdaq100 surging a phenomenal 7.2%, outpacing the S&P500 and the Dow gains. The Nasdaq was supported by a cratering in the US 10-year Treasury yields, which fell 30-basis-points to 3.8%.
DXY/Dollor Analysis and Trade Idea 46th week 2022DXY collapsed on CPI news and still heading to downward.
But a short term correction is expected.
So I think for next week before going further down it will test 107.200-107.300 zone and then move further down.
Dxy will continue it's bearish trend and will hit 104.28 by Friday which is a very strong support zone.
Further more Gold was bullish in last week and we are seeing a bullish relay in gold since 4th November it will also retrace sown and make a correction in price which is expected to 1740.00
Let's see how this week is going to be.
The dollar breaks an uptrend 👌Is the dollar trip over? Is it the beginning of the fall of the dollar?
- With the release of inflation data, which came contrary to what the dollar wished, and with what the trader wished.
the dollar fell nearly 300 points, heading towards the 107 support.
It reduces the rate to 50 percent by the end of this year, and if it continues in this manner, inflation may decline faster and at a higher rate than before.
- Everything may happen. We are on the cusp of an annual closure, so please be careful with your trading, and that greed does not take you and not manage risks towards the unknown, please.
dxy next move2 scenarios can happen the dollar is bullish right now since it just recently broke a high now i would like a pull back but tbh it could just keep pushing up to the high b4 coming back down but once price gets to that high i will see how price action develops
this is just more confirmation on golds sells we are already in for the pull back
110.360-110-800 area where i see it pushing to
DXY - Dollar under pressureWith the anticipation of the inflation data that will be released on Thursday, the dollar is still under many selling pressures, but now it has reached pivotal areas, breaking it may lead it to lower levels, but if the data comes in its favour, it may regain its strength again.
Now the price is near a daily bullish trend and near buying areas (demand), as well as it is on the edge of the lowest descending channel on the 4 hour frame.
Everything will be revealed on Thursday, so please be careful in your trading until Thursday.
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updateWould the dollar fall short from that support area?
Looking at the dollar from a technical view we are currently in & uptrend, we can see price is currently holding @ a major support area around $(109.69) area
if we see our H4 bar close below that support area we can potentially see price move back short into our 200 EMA.
if we keep hold of our support area we may potentially continue to go bullish however we can see sellers are strong in the market also we had some negative fundamentals against the dollar wish is why we saw that short move. at this point we need to have some patience with the DXY and lets see whats the next move for price.
20 REASSON FOR SHORT DXY 🤑TOP DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW🤑
🧐Eagle eye: structural Down
Monthly : structure bullish but there are lot of weakness in monthly candle patterns last month is inside bar 😲insidebar😲 current forming 👎doji😲
weekly : a big Imbalance after it prices are going down and down 🥺
so the bigger picture is not clear and in bear favor
1 Structure analysis time frame :DAILY bear
2 target time frame :DAILY
3 Current Move :IMPULSE
4 Entry Time Frame : H4
4.1 Entry TF Structure: BEAR
4.2 entry move : IMPULSE
5 Support resistance base :H4 BEAR ORDER BLOCK
6 FIB: TRIGGER EVENT
7 candle Pattern: DARK CLOUDS
8 Chart Pattern: DOUBLE TOP
9 Volume : EXTREAMLY HIGH
10 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: SUPER BARISH WITH LOUD MOVES
11 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: HEADFAKE BEARISH
12 strength ADX: WICKSAS BEAR
13 Sentiment ROC: BULLISH
14 final comment : SHORT AT RETRACEMENT
15 : decision : SELL
16 Entry: 111.790
17 Stop losel: 112.8
18 Take profit: 107.170
19 Risk to reward Ratio: 1:5
Excepted Duration : 10
Dollar Index Chart Analysis....
In this situation DXY chart Long tarm create bullish rectangle pattern.So, market
first buy correction @ 111:315 and 111:950 resistance level. Then sell to 109.400 support
zone. If breakout 113.080 resistance level, then market Buy UP to 115.250 resistance level.
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The aftermath of the feds fourth 75bps hike; DXY and DOW JONESIt's now official; the US Federal Reserve has enacted its fourth consecutive 75-basis-points rate hike, bringing its benchmark rate to the 3.75% - 4.00% range, which is the highest it has been since January of 2008.
The markets reacted quite mildly to the rate hike at first, due to it aligning with exactly what the market was expecting for the past few weeks. Expectations strengthened for another 75-basis-points (typically an outsized hike) after September's hotter-than-expected inflation reading that arrived in October.
The mild reaction soon gave way to volatility, as US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell began to deliver his address that customarily follows an interest rate decision. Investors were intensely curious about this address as it is an opportunity to glean information about why the decision was made and how the bank is thinking about future hikes. What they were specifically looking out for included statements concerning the intensity and pace of rate hikes moving forward, concerns held for the state of the US economy, and responses to recent data drops.
What we learned from Powell’s address
Stocks actually spiked at the onset of Powell’s address, buts quickly gave up gains when it became apparent that Powell is not seriously considering a slowdown in the pace of its rate hikes just yet, like that which has been seen in Canada and Australia. It will be interesting to see where US stocks head in November after recording huge bumps in October, which in part has been attributed to an expectation that the Fed might slow its pace. For one, The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its best month since 1976, climbing more than 13%. Powell noted that he expects to start talking about slowing the pace with his colleges within the next two meetings. The special note that it could be within the next ‘two’ meetings is what lent it a veil of non-urgency.
Perhaps the most important note of the address, Powell confirmed that the bank has revised up its expectation for peak interest rates from 4.6% to 5.0% after digesting the data that had been released in October. This note has helped put the US dollar index (DXY) back on track to its 20-year high of 114.00 recorded in September. Much like stocks, the DXY’s reaction reversed its direction drastically after the market caught wind of the Feds revised terminal rate. Before the reversal, the DXY was on its way down to 110.00, before spiking to almost 112.00.