4.9 gold rebound increases resistance level and continues shortiFundamentals:
On Tuesday (April 8), the price of gold fluctuated slightly higher in the early US trading. The market is currently expecting a continuous decline, and at the same time paying attention to the logic of short selling at resistance points. After briefly hitting a four-week low on Monday, the price of gold rebounded quickly and rebounded strongly to above $3,000 in the Asian and European trading on Tuesday.
Against this background, gold, as the ultimate safe-haven asset with "zero credit risk", has once again become the main allocation target of market funds. Every macro policy imbalance and external shock will bring cyclical buying to gold, and this time the intensity may be stronger. The current gold price has stabilized at the psychological level of $3,000 and is showing a short-term rising structure. From a technical perspective, the gold price in the daily chart quickly rose after stepping back on the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level ($2,956), showing the resilience of buying. If the gold price breaks through the short-term resistance of $3,020, the upward target will be the $3,055 and $3,080 areas, and further may rise to the $3,100 mark. The key support level below is still around $2956. If it fails, it may test the 50-day moving average support (about $2947). Once this level is lost, it may trigger more technical selling pressure. The biggest variable facing the current market is no longer inflation data, but the destructive impact of Trump's tariff increase on the global trade pattern. The Fed's policy space is opening up rapidly. Driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts and risk aversion demand, gold not only stabilizes the $3,000 mark, but is also likely to re-enter the main upward trend.
Personal operation analysis:
Trend: shock trend
Support: 3000----2983------2965
Resistance: 3008-----3030-------3050
Strategy:
Viewpoint logic:
Short view near 3030, stop loss 3036, take profit near 3000----2970, and track stop loss 300 points.
Dxyshort
4.8 Gold continues to run at a low point!Gold stabilized and rebounded on Tuesday (April 8), with an intraday increase of nearly 1%, successfully recovering the losses of the previous trading day. The rebound ended the three-day correction trend, and the gold price rebounded significantly from the key support level of $2,955. The current market focus is on the evolution of the Fed's policy path and the geopolitical trade situation. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, the short-term volatility of gold has risen significantly.
Fundamentals: The struggle between risk aversion and interest rate expectations
The rebound of gold at the beginning of this week was mainly driven by two factors:
1. The escalation of geopolitical trade risks
US President Trump's recent remarks on tariffs have triggered market concerns about the renewed tension in the global trade system.
2. The Fed's interest rate expectations fluctuated sharply
The interest rate futures market has undergone dramatic changes this week: On Monday, the market once bet that the Fed would cut interest rates five times in 2025, a significant shift from the expectation of "one or no interest rate cut" a week ago.
3. The coordination of the US dollar and capital flows
The US dollar index weakened slightly on Tuesday, reducing the cost of holding gold for non-US investors.
Technical aspect: Attack and defense of key support level
From the perspective of the market structure, the trend of gold this week showed typical "sharp drop and slow rise" characteristics:
Support confirmation: On Monday, the gold price accurately tested the support of $2955 and then rebounded. This position corresponds to the neckline of the platform that broke through in mid-March, and formed a double defense line with the 55-day moving average (US$2930). The intraday lows were densely bought, indicating that medium- and long-term investors viewed the correction as an opportunity to build positions.
Resistance distribution: The first resistance above is at US$3040 (daily line R1), and after breaking through, it may test US$3057 (March 20 pivot point) and US$3097 (R2). The historical high of US$3167 is still a psychological barrier, but it is difficult to challenge it directly in the short term.
In the short term, the trend of gold will depend on two major catalysts: 1. The minutes of the Fed's March meeting on Wednesday: If the minutes suggest an open attitude towards rate cuts, it may push gold prices to test the $3,050-3,070 range; conversely, if the emphasis is on inflation stickiness, it may trigger long profit-taking. 2. Progress in trade negotiations: Any substantive implementation or easing of tariff policies may trigger fluctuations of more than 5% in gold prices. In the medium term, the upward trend of gold has not been broken. Institutional research reports show that the current global central bank's demand for gold purchases is still at a historical high, and in the downward cycle of interest rates, the relative attractiveness of interest-free assets will continue to stand out. If the technical side breaks through $3,057, it will open up space for the impact of the previous high; the defense strength of the $2,950-2,930 area needs to be closely monitored below.
4.8 Technical analysis of short-term gold operations!Spot gold rebounded slightly during the Asian session on Tuesday (April 8), once rising above the 3,000 mark, and is currently trading around $2,995.51 per ounce. Spot gold may rebound to $3,049 per ounce, as the price has previously completed a five-wave cycle starting from $3,168.
Analysts pointed out that the peak of wave d is around $3,049, which can be used as a rebound target. It is still difficult to judge whether this cycle is an impulse wave cycle or a correction wave cycle.
If it is an impulse wave cycle, it means that the downward trend will extend to well below $2,950. The correction wave cycle shows that despite the sharp drop from $3,168, the upward trend from $2,831 remains intact.
The information shown on the daily chart is very clear. The sharp drop in the past few days seems to be driven by wave (4), which may end near the strong support level of $2,970. The next wave (5) will push the upward trend above $3167.
Resistance level: 3015----3038-----3050
Pressure level: 3000---29833-----2970
4.8 Interpretation of gold short-term operation ideasGold price has fallen below the previous row support band in the daily trend. The K-line continues to be under pressure from the short-term moving average and maintains a weaker trend of shock. In the short term, pay attention to the pressure band around 3030. In the 4-hour level trend, the K-line is currently under pressure from the short-term moving average and is maintaining a low-level shock repair. The strength and continuation of the intraday rebound are not too large. Pay attention to the continued downward trend after a small break in the 4-hour level trend. At present, after continuous shocks in the small-level cycle trend, the technical pattern has begun to gradually adjust. The K-line has begun to slowly stand on the short-term moving average and tends to have a certain rebound space in the short-term trend. Pay attention to the short-term adjustment.
Operational suggestions:
Short near 3017-8, stop loss 3023.9, or long near 2945-6, stop loss 2939.1.
Real-time market intraday guidance.
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4.8 Gold Bollinger Bands bearish signal appearsRecently, the spot gold price once fell below the psychological barrier of $3,000, triggering technical concerns in the market about whether the gold bull market has reached its peak. On Monday (April 7) in the North American session, spot gold is currently trying to recover to around $3,030, but the technical indicators have shown obvious divergence.
Fundamental analysis
The market's concerns about US inflation continue to ferment, and the intensification of global trade frictions is driving the market's concerns about economic stagflation. The Fed's policy stance has also undergone subtle changes. The market has begun to price in five possible interest rate cuts this year. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in May has soared from 33.3% last Friday to 49.3%.
At present, traders are turning their attention to the US inflation data to be released this week, which will provide important clues for assessing the US economic situation.
Technical analysts' interpretation:
Bollinger band breakthrough signal indicates a short-term correction
On the daily chart, gold prices have formed a clear upward channel since mid-March, but recently touched the upper track of the Bollinger band and began to fall. It is worth noting that the middle track of the Bollinger Band 3006.13 has become a key support level. After breaking through the historical high of 3167.60, the price has shown a typical upward exhaustion pattern. The MACD indicator shows DIFF: 43.46, DEA: 48.65, MACD: -10.39, and the green kinetic energy column has begun to expand, indicating that the short-term downward momentum is accumulating.
RSI indicator shows overbought correction
The 120-minute chart shows that the RSI indicator has fallen from the overbought area to a neutral level of 40.37. At the same time, the CCI indicator has dropped to -45.05, further confirming the trend of short-term overbought correction.
Key support and resistance level analysis
The current gold price faces multiple technical resistances, among which 3055.00 and 3085.00 constitute the main resistance range for short-term rebound. The lower support levels are mainly concentrated at $3005.00 and $2971.31, and these two levels will determine whether the gold price can remain above the psychological level of $3,000. In particular, the $2971.31 level, as a recent low, may trigger a deeper adjustment if it is lost.
From the long-term daily chart, gold prices formed an accelerated upward channel after breaking through $2950.00. The recent high of $3167.60 is just at the upper track of the channel. This trend of peaking and falling is in line with the classic channel trading theory.
Outlook
Bull Outlook: If the US inflation data exceeds expectations, the market's expectations for a more aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve will be further strengthened, and gold prices are expected to re-challenge the high of $3167.60 after a correction. Technically, gold prices need to return to above $3055.00 to reactivate upward momentum. The widening of the Bollinger Band width indicates that volatility is increasing, which provides potential trading opportunities for bulls.
Bear Outlook: In the short term, the downward divergence of the upper track of the Bollinger Band indicates that gold prices may face further corrections. The MACD histogram turned green and continued to expand, suggesting that downward momentum is accumulating. If the gold price falls below the key support of $2,971.31, it may trigger a deeper adjustment, and the next target will be $2,950.00 or even $2,920.00.
4.7 Interpretation of gold short-term operation ideas! US market4.7 Interpretation of gold late trading operation ideas:
Falling more than 70 points in the morning, it quickly rebounded and reversed! How will gold evolve tonight?
This V-reversal market frequently appears in these three trading days. It is difficult for us to encounter it once or twice a month. This increases the risk of trading. Once you make a mistake, it will be a reversal of dozens of points! When trading, you must strictly use the "stop loss".
We note that the three V-reversals in this stage have common characteristics. The stop in the last trading intensive period means that "3130" can be used as a reference for stage support and pressure. Then these three are: 3130, 3050, 2970---2980
The decline caused by the backlog of sell orders and insufficient liquidity! For gold, it will cause multiple stimulations, panic selling, and funds leaving the market for a short time to avoid risks. Selling gold to fill the gap in other markets and many other factors, and the central banks around the world that intend to reserve gold will not wait! They will still buy strategically, so the trend determines that the decline is limited.
2880 and 2630 are the two main observation positions.
After the small-cycle funds rebounded in the morning, the market entered a triangular consolidation state, the highs were gradually decreasing, and the lows were flattening. This is an obvious sign of market wait-and-see sentiment. The probability of a V-reversal phase or a continuous unilateral trend in the evening increased! If you follow this logic, gold should be under pressure around 3035-3038 during the rebound phase of 16-18 points!
And then continue to fall. Of course, if the EU further expresses its tariffs! It may cause the short-term volatility of the market to intensify!
Any unilateral trend needs to be confirmed in the US market. In the evening, whether it is a V-reversal from north to south or a continuation of the Asian and European market, it is normal. The overall framework will not deviate from the framework of 3130, 3050, 2980!
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DXY Bearish trend continues on SSL and Bearish ORDER BLOCKDXY is known for extreme liquidity grabs especially after Trump's tariff announcements. Until we see countries remove tariffs and companies changing factory locations DXY will still be week. A decent pullback this week?? Probably not, Next? Maybe STAY SHARP!!
4.7 Gold short-term operation technical strategyLast week, gold and Dow Jones started to plummet across the board, and the short-selling of the band was a carnival. First of all, our initial short-selling target of 38,500 under the Dow Jones 45,000 has been completed. The only key support is the 36,300 line, and gold has also fallen to the 2970 line. There is no bottom at present, but there is a rebound in the key support level, so don't chase the low in the morning! From the closing point of view, the weekly line finally closed with a long upper shadow line and a quasi-inverted hammer pattern. After the end of this pattern, the market has been in the short stage this week. The intraday rebound is still mainly high-altitude. The market has a large amplitude, and the small stop loss has lost its meaning. At this time, the entry position is very important. In terms of points, the intraday rebound 3045-55 area continues to be high-altitude.
Short-term support: 3038, 3018, 2980, 2960
Do a good job of pushing the position protection! ! !
4.7 Gold opened lower and continued to fall!!!Gold fell sharply again at the opening of the morning session. The root cause is that the United States imposed tariffs on many countries and the countermeasures of various countries have triggered panic in the global financial market. The U.S. stock market fell sharply and the U.S. dollar index fluctuated. This macroeconomic uncertainty has increased the safe-haven demand for gold, but the liquidity problems caused by market panic may cause investors to sell gold in exchange for cash, so it will suppress the price of gold. The overall market sentiment is relatively complex, and the long-short game is fierce. From the disk, gold has gradually turned short!
In the current situation, don’t expect gold to rise sharply in a short period of time to form a rebound. The gold content of following the trend is still rising. We will go short in the morning when we wait for a rebound! The upper pressure level focuses on the closing price of 3036 last week, and the further pressure level is the top and bottom conversion level of 3054! You can ambush and short near 3050 in the morning! The falling market is all the way down, don’t blindly guess the bottom!
Specific strategy
Gold 3050 short, stop loss 3056, target 3000
Non-agricultural gold is expected to fall sharply. On Friday (April 4), at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the highly anticipated March non-farm payrolls report, which put pressure on gold.
Fundamentals: Today, gold is expected to fall sharply. The market continues to short at resistance points.
Market volatility is expected to increase during the period. The long-short game of the US dollar index near the 102 mark will determine whether it can continue to rise. If it breaks through 103, it may further suppress gold and non-US currencies. Gold is looking for direction in the range of 3080-3100 US dollars/ounce. If risk aversion picks up, it may retest the 3100 mark; on the contrary, if the US dollar continues to strengthen, breaking through 3080 will open up downside space. The decline in US stock futures may continue until early next week.
4.5 Gold falls off a cliff and waits to stabilize! ! !Gold 4-hour level: The last wave of pull-up started from the low point of 2999 to 3167. Yesterday, it fell back and tested the 618 split position 3063. The current support is still valid, which is also the MA66 day position; From the perspective of macd, it is still short-selling and has not been fully repaired. Wait until it crosses below the zero axis, and then slowly stabilizes and tends to golden cross in the future market, then a wave of trend pull-up will gradually form, and it will take time; if 3063 cannot be maintained, the two split positions below are 3035 and 3018, and attention should be paid to stabilization.
Intraday support: 3035 3018 3005
Resistance: 3045 3070 3100
DXY:Today's trading strategyTrump's announced comprehensive tariff plan has triggered global attention. As for the U.S. Dollar Index, on Thursday, the price of the U.S. Dollar Index generally showed a significant downward trend. On that day, the price rose to a high of 103.931 at most, dropped to a low of 101.232, and closed at 101.937.
Looking back at the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index price on Thursday, after the opening in the morning, the price continued to decline in the short term. Subsequently, the price remained weak all the way with almost no rebound. It underwent short-term oscillatory consolidation and finally closed with a large bearish candlestick on the daily chart. For now, pay attention to the resistance in the 102.80 area and the level of 102.40, and keep a continuous watch for further bearish pressure.
Trading Strategy:
Sell@102.50-102.60
TP:101.50-101.30
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4.4 Gold is low and long, wait for non-agricultureYesterday, the gold market opened at 3134.1 in the morning. The market first fell back to 3122.6 and then rose strongly. After breaking the previous high, it reached a high of 2167.9. After that, the market began to fall under the cooperation of fundamentals and technical profit-taking. The intraday low was 3053.6. After that, the market rose strongly and reached 3135.8 before consolidating. The daily line finally closed at 3114.1. The daily line closed in a spindle shape with a very long lower shadow. After this shape ended, after the break of 2940 and 2958, the long positions were reduced, and the stop loss was followed up at 3050. If it falls back to 3082 first today, the long stop loss is 3075. The target is 3115 and 3132. If it breaks, the target is 3140 and 3150.
4.4 Analysis of gold short-term operation strategy!!!On Thursday (April 3), spot gold experienced a surprising volatility, with a single-day fluctuation of nearly $114, and the price of gold finally closed down.
Analyze the technical outlook of gold intraday.
The 4-hour chart of gold shows that the price of gold is trading below the currently flat 20-period SMA, but it is still well above the bullish 100-period SMA, which provides support near $3040/oz. At the same time, technical indicators have recovered from near oversold readings and stabilized within negative levels. If the price of gold falls below the above-mentioned $3040/oz area, the price of gold may fall sharply.
Support: $3086.70/oz; $3073.90/oz; $3061.10/oz
Resistance: $3123.10/oz; $3136.70/oz; $3150.00/oz
Monthly closing line, gold is alert to pull higher and fall backAt the end of March, the monthly and quarterly lines of gold and silver closed with saturated strong positive lines. The first trading day of the month has broken the high by inertia, which is consistent with expectations. Next, the focus should be on guarding against the potential scenario of pulling up shipments in the first half of the month, and the possibility of extreme volatility.
There are a lot of heavy news data from the 2nd to the 4th. I think there is a high probability that there will be an obvious turning point. However, given that the global political and economic situation has not cooled down significantly, even if there is a turning point and a correction, or even a sharp correction, it is still difficult to make a real judgment of a reversal of the big cycle trend. Therefore, I think the general idea of the short and medium-term line should be to maintain short first and then long.
The small resistance is around 3145--3155, and the important support during the week is around 3050. Given the recent volatility, it is obviously necessary to continue to be prepared to deal with continued large fluctuations.
The above strategy is based on current market analysis, and specific operations need to be combined with real-time data!
4.1 Analysis and Suggestions on Gold US Market Operation IdeasGold intraday interpretation
Gold failed to hit 3150 in the morning session. How will the subsequent market evolve?
It hit a high in the morning and then fell back to 3125-3130 to stop the decline and enter consolidation. If it fails to break through 3150 on Thursday, it will have a chance to enter a high-level adjustment, and the decline may reach 30-50 points!
Market sentiment has been brewing for a long enough time. Everyone should look at tariffs rationally. Even if there is no tax increase, there is no need to be too surprised.
Currently entering the triangle consolidation pattern, which is a type of relay pattern. The pattern is usually accompanied by a reduction in trading volume and resumes the original trend after breaking through.
Focus: 3150 key resistance. Don't chase north above 3140. If the intermediate form is used, the probability of breaking through 3150 during the day is not high. Mainly look at the ADP employment number on Wednesday. Beware of the US market retreating from 3113 to 3117 and then rebounding quickly.
Lower support: 3125 3113 3105
Upper pressure: 3150 3165
Monthly line saturated big positive line, gold and silver swordsYesterday, the gold market opened slightly higher at 3088 in the morning, and then fell back. The daily line reached a low of 3076.5, and then the market rose strongly. After breaking the 3100 integer mark, the daily line rose strongly. The daily line reached a high of 3128, and then the market consolidated widely. The daily line finally closed at 3123.8, and then the market closed with a long lower shadow. After this pattern ended, today's market still has technical bullish demand. In terms of points, after the breakout of 2940 and 2958, the stop loss followed up at 2990. Today, the stop loss of 3110 is 3105, and the target is 3128 and 3132. The breakout is 3140 and 3150-3152.
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4.1 Analysis of gold intraday short-term trendFrom the daily chart, the gold price fell slightly after breaking through the previous high of $3127.76, but it is still in a strong upward channel overall. The current price has been stable above the 5-week moving average for many consecutive weeks, indicating that the medium-term trend is still healthy. It is worth noting that from the low of $2536.68 to date, gold has risen by more than 23%, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of short-term adjustments. The next target will point to the psychological level of $3200. Factors supporting this view include rising global uncertainty, increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and continued gold purchases by the central bank. In addition, the closing price needs to stabilize above $3135 to confirm the effectiveness of the long-term breakthrough. In this case, the price may accelerate upward, with a target of $3170.
Short-term resistance: 3130 3150 3170
The market is changing with the trend, and it is recommended to adjust the strategy in combination with real-time data!
4.1 Technical analysis of short-term gold trading BUYGold is currently temporarily maintaining a high range oscillation in the 4-hour level trend, but the short-term moving average continues to maintain a strong trend, and a wave of bottoming rebound in the 4-hour level trend has basically completed the repair of the technical pattern. Pay attention to the secondary pull-up trend after the high-level oscillation repair is completed. The hourly level trend is currently temporarily maintained in a high-level oscillation, but the strength and continuity of the US market's retracement are not particularly large. The technical pattern of the small-level cycle trend has also been gradually adjusted and completed, and it tends to be able to continue to rise in the late trading.
Intraday short-term operation:
BUY: 3110 Stop loss: 3005-3100 Target 3125-3130
DXY:Seize the opportunity to sell short at high pricesThe situation in the Middle East is clearly deteriorating, which undoubtedly has a huge stimulating effect on the global risk aversion sentiment. More funds have started to seek safe havens. However, the best choice at present is not the US dollar. With the continuous rise of the East, more and more capital will favor this side of the East. Therefore, the pressure on the US dollar index is actually increasing, and it will be very difficult for it to rise.
Regarding the trend of the US dollar index today, although the current situation exerts great pressure, the actions to support the market of the US dollar index still take effect from time to time. So the price will not keep falling, and there will still be some oscillatory patterns. However, even if it moves in an oscillatory pattern, the upward pressure on the US dollar index will be significant. Therefore, when the price reaches the effective resistance level, it will be an excellent opportunity to short the US dollar index.
DXY Trading Strategy:
buy@104.500
TP:103.500
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3.31 Gold US market operation analysis suggestions!Gold intraday analysis and operation: How to judge the next step after gold breaks through 3130!
Gold's strong rise in the Asian session has brought the price of gold close to 3130 and finally stagnated at 3127. The impact of the US market has not yet appeared, but with the current trend, the volatility of gold tonight will not be too small. The overall idea is to maintain the low north. The intraday volatility range is maintained within the range of 40 points between 3090 and 3130. The current increase has exceeded market expectations. Although there is selling pressure, it is all suppressed by the bulls!
US market pressure focus: 3130-3150 above and 3110-3095 below
The above analysis is a personal analysis suggestion, I hope it can bring some gains to everyone!
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3.31 Gold officially breaks through 3100In the early Asian session on Monday (March 31), spot gold once again saw a surge in prices shortly after the opening. The most active gold futures contract in New York was traded in one minute from 10:22 to 10:23 Beijing time on March 31, with 890 lots traded, and the total value of the trading contracts was US$279 million. Affected by Trump's latest tariff news, spot gold maintained the current bull market trend. The gold price broke through the US$3,000 mark and broke through US$3,100 only half a month after breaking through the US$3,000 mark. As of 10:39 Beijing time, it was reported at US$3,105.23 per ounce.
Gold technical analysis: Gold closed higher with a big positive line last week, and after consolidating at a high level, it increased strongly and closed at a high level. The weekly K-line is still strong, with a big bald positive line. There will be further continuation this week. However, the monthly line closed today. After the volume is released, we must also be careful of the wash of the high and fall. The daily chart has continued to rise and set a new high. The Asian session is a slow consolidation and then a slow new high. The consolidation is not the high, and the volume is the top. At present, there is further rise in the short term. Gold was stimulated by risk aversion over the weekend. It opened high and fell back on Monday. However, gold fell back under pressure at 3100 in the short term. We must pay attention to adjustments. Then gold is just adjusting. Wait patiently for it to fall back before going long. The technical side of gold shows a strong upward trend. US$3070 has become a new short-term support level. The current upward momentum is sufficient and there is momentum for further rise. The influence of gold bulls on the current trend of gold has reached the highest level in history, but the trading scale and heat have not reached the most crowded range in history. There is still room for funds to further increase positions, which provides support for gold prices.
3.31 Gold Operation Strategy Reference:
Short Order Strategy:
Strategy 1: When gold rebounds around 3100-3103, short (buy short) in batches with 20% of the position, stop loss at 3110, target around 3085-3075, and look at 3070 if it breaks; (Strategy is time-sensitive, more real-time layout strategies are announced in the channel.)
Long Order Strategy:
Strategy 2: When gold pulls back around 3070-3073, long (buy long) in batches with 20% of the position, stop loss at 3060, target around 3085-3095, and look at 3105 if it breaks; (Strategy is time-sensitive, more real-time layout strategies are announced in the channel.)
DXY:It is about to witness a quarterly declineBecause concerns about tariffs causing a slowdown in U.S. economic growth have pushed down U.S. Treasury bond yields, the stock market, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. The U.S. dollar is likely to experience a quarterly decline next week, and we can seize the opportunity to short on rebounds.
Trading strategy:
buy@104.500
TP:103.500
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