AUDUSD: USD Faces Pressure Amid Eurozone Political UncertaintyGood Morning Traders,
Trust you are great.
Still based on my fundamental analysis of yesterday. I expect a rally on AUDUSD. You can read it here:
Cheers!
Dxyshort
DXY IndexPair : DXY Index
Description :
Symmetrical Triangle as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame
Bullish Channel in Short Time Frame
Break of Structure
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " A " Corrective Waves
RSI - Divergence
DXY The Fake Dance- One of the most important barometers for global currencies and markets in the world.
- Most of the time DXY is a well used machine to supress markets (forex, stocks, cryptos, etc..)
- When they don't start the printing machine, DXY keeps is strength.
- When they start to print DXY starts to dip and markets boom up.
- it's really basic and based on "BRRR Machine".
- i had a hard time to decrypt this fake peace of resilience.
- actually there's none visible divergences on the 1M or 3M Timeframes.
- So i decided to push my analysis to 6M Timeframe and noticed few things :
- You can notice that from 2008 ( Post crises ), DXY was in a perma bullish trend.
- So now check MACD and will notice this fake move on January 2021 ( in graph the red ? )
- MACD was about to cross down, columns smaller and smaller, then a Pump from nowhere lol.
- i rarely saw that in my trading life on a 6M Timeframe.
- So to understand more this trend, i used ADX (Average Directional Index)
- ADX is used to determine when the price is trending strongly.
- In many cases, it is the ultimate trend indicator.
- So if you look well ADX columns, you will notice that a strong divergence is on the way.
- First check the Yellow Doted Line in July 2022 when DXY reached 115ish and look the size of the green columns.
- Now check today (red doted Line), and look again the ADX green columns is higher, but DXY diped to 105ish.
- So like always, i can be wrong, but i bet on a fast DXY dip soon or later.
- it's possible to fake pumps, but it's harder to fake traders.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Bearish on DXYThis week we have CPI and US Fed funds rate announcements. Most probably we don't get a rate cut for now (as the market expects). However, I think this week the announcements are coming out with a more dovish tone.
Let's see what happens . . .
If the CPI number come out lower or equal to the expectations and the Fed Chair Powell signals 1 or 2 rate cuts for this year. I believe we can expect the yellow scenario. Otherwise, we can expect the red scenario happens in short term.
DXY hits major resistanceDXY: The USD index this week is touching the susceptible help area round 104.60, so withinside the brief term, the USD is anticipated to get better barely today. Most of the marketplace will now no longer have lots fluctuation because of the financial institution holiday. Ace can refer to shopping for with USD
DXY Weekly outlook May 26 2024DXY Weekly, Daily, and H4 Chart Analysis
Weekly Bias: Bearish
Market Structure Shift (W-MSS): Confirmed two weeks ago, signaling a bearish trend.
iFVG-W: Last week, price tested and closed below the inverse Fair Value Gap on the weekly timeframe (iFVG-W), reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Target Level (DOL): 103.921, where the Weekly Fair Value Gap (W-FVG) and Weekly Swing Low (W-SSL) converge.
Confirmation Needed: Watch for a Bearish Market Structure Shift on the H4 timeframe (H4 Bearish-MSS) to confirm the bearish bias.
Daily Bias: Bearish
D-FVG-CE: On the daily chart, price has closed below the current Daily Fair Value Gap (D-FVG-CE).
D-LRLR & D-SSL: Daily Low Resistance Liquidity Run (D-LRLR) is aligned with the Daily Swing Low (D-SSL) and the Weekly Swing Low (W-SSL), indicating a target for low resistance liquidity.
Expectations: In the upcoming week, anticipate a move towards these lower levels, seeking liquidity.
H4 Bias: Bearish
H4-FVG: On the H4 chart, a Fair Value Gap (H4-FVG) has formed after rejecting from the weekly inverse Fair Value Gap (W-iFVG).
Key Level: 104.998 - 104.913 (H4-FVG).
Bearish Confirmation: If price moves upward and then rejects from the H4-FVG level, this will confirm the bearish bias. This will be an ideal point (H4-POI) to enter short positions targeting 104.009.
Key Levels:
Resistance: Recent iFVG-W (Weekly), H4-FVG (104.998 - 104.913).
Support/Target: 103.921 (W-FVG and W-SSL), 104.009 (H4 target).
In summary, the DXY shows a bearish bias across weekly, daily, and H4 timeframes. Watch for price movements towards 103.921 on the weekly and daily charts, with confirmation from a rejection at the H4-FVG level (104.998 - 104.913) to solidify the bearish trend and target 104.009.
DXY Dollar Looks Bearish to 104.080I'm bearish on DXY dollar down to 104.080 (previous 2 week candle low)
I view the current move up in price as a potential opportunity to short DXY.
Intermediate timeframe (h8) is delivering bullish (closing above the highs of down close candles). In this scenario, I watch for entries above fractal h8 swing highs, or if there is a bearish h8 cisd, enter on pullbacks into bearish arrays.
DXY Price analysis 19 May 2024Monthly: The price come down after creating the M-Mss+, as there is no space left for M-FVG now so our bulish bias is invalid now.
Monthly Bias: Consolidation.
Weekly: The price has taken the W-FVG+ & closed bellow, Creating a W-MSS -, & there are 2 Target bellow situated in 103.921 level, so now our target is to go for the W-SSL.
Weekly Bias: Bearish.
Daily: The price has been rejected the W-FVG, now D-MSS- has been formed with a D-FVG- & the Price already rejected from that level, So the daily price is clearly showing that the we are going down, towards-103.921 level.
Daily Bias: Bearish
H4: In this level the price has been formed a h4 Cisd- from the daily FVG, so now we are confirmed that we are going towards down.
H4 :Bias Bearish.
DXY: DXY analysis todayThe dollar slid to a multi-month low on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit a three-year low and retail sales were flat, raising expectations of lower interest rates in the economy. largest economy in the world.
The DXY index recorded its biggest decline of the year, falling 0.75% and penetrating below the MA 200 line. DXY is currently trading around its 5-week low at 104.17 at the beginning of the Asian session.
DXY - USD Sinking To A Bottomless Pit The Fundamentals
When I think of U.S. Federal Reserve and U.S. Government infinite debt ceiling, the title of the movie, "The Gods Must Be Crazy" comes to my mind. What they are doing has only one end result, the destruction of the U.S. $ and its economy.
There are new sheriffs in town (BRICS - Economic Sheriffs, Russia, China, Iran - Military Sheriffs), the U.S. no longer has military nor economic hegemony, this is what's behind the power of the U.S. $, imagine being powerless to protect their interests in the red sea, where there's a new sheriff in town called Iran camouflaged as Houthis :D or being kicked out of Niger?
Some genius decades ago, had the bright idea that backing the U.S. $ by military power was a great idea, moving factories to China for the sake of increasing profits was also a bright idea, and at the same time antagonizing China.
The Technical Analysis
Counting the waves, looks like we've completed wave B of wave 5 which means wave C could take the USD below 92. Coincidently that's close to 0.5 and 0.618 Fibs. Wave 1 and 2 of wave C looks completed now brace for impact!
Mayday! Mayday!
The Bullish Scenario
Wave B of wave 5 could be an extended wave and take the USD all ze vay to 119 and crash afterwards.
DXY observations (short term bearish trend)DOLLAR OBSERVATIONS
As price continues its downward trajectory, it has shifted its trend to the downside, leaving behind clear supply zones. One of these zones was previously identified and respected as per last week's forecast. I anticipate this short-term bearish trend to persist until it reaches the 104.200 mark. At that point, I expect a bullish reversal to occur, especially considering the presence of an imbalance just above this level.
Additionally, with price currently in a downtrend, my bullish biases on GU and EU align accordingly. This correlation is logical until either of them reaches the supply zone on the daily chart, which should coincide with the same daily demand zone marked out on DXY.
DXY Index Pair : DXY Index
Description :
Impulse Correction
RSI - Divergence
Symmetrical Triangle
Break of Structure
Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
DXY (dollar index)The dollar index moved in a triangle pattern. Last week, the market tested his upper trendline. If the market tests the upper trendline then it is 106.500 level. Another thing is there is a resistance and supply area at 107.00 level. if the market does not respect the upper trendline then further move to 107.00 level and then reject.
🚨DXY Index Is Ready to Go Down by H&S Pattern🚨🏃♂️ DXY index is moving near 🔴 Heavy Resistance zone($105.88-$104.65) 🔴.
📈In terms of Classical Technical Analysis , the DXY index has succeeded in forming an Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern and is currently completing the right shoulder of the Head and Shoulders Pattern .
💡Also, the Regular Divergence (RD-) between the right and left shoulders of the H&S Pattern is clearly visible.
🔔I expect the DXY index to continue its decline after breaking the 🟢 Support zone($104.26-$103.88) 🟢 around $103 .
U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
DXY Directional Bias is now Bearish**Weekly Chart**
As Expected in our previous analysis DXY coiled near MC Candle of 14th Feb 2024.
Note: Please refer to our last week analysis.
**Daily Chart**
Last week DXY moved higher only to break the high of the previous MC, balance the IPA (FVG) candle of Nov 2023, and tricked retail traders by moving slightly higher before started dropping and creating another MC candle. On Friday 5th April 2024, DXY tried to move higher again but it failed and created a key reversal and tested the smaller liquidity candle of 3rd April before moving lower. The reason this reached a weekly high and dropped below it, suggests a move lower in the next couple of weeks. The first target is around 103 and the second target is around 102.50 (the previous weekly low).
DXY ShortGood evening everyone! Don't forget to put your thumbs up and write comment if you like the idea.
And if on Friday our technique coincides with fundamental analysis, we should receive a very strong decline in the dollar index
Target: 103.800
DXY Descent Alert: Path to 102.800 - 102.280Update on DXY's Movement:
The DXY has hit our projected targets in DXY Rebound Alert: Prepare for the 104-105 Swing and completed its last wave in a WXY pattern, with a truncated Y wave.
Following this, we've observed a downward trend, with the DXY breaking through the main price channel. We anticipate a decline from the current area to the Fibonacci levels of 0.5-0.618, positioning the index around 102.800 to 102.280.
Immediate Outlook:
A closer inspection of the monthly chart suggests a sideways movement within the 103.500 to 104.450 range until the end of February, after which we expect the DXY to descend towards our specified targets.
Next Steps After Target Achievement:
Once the DXY reaches our anticipated Fibonacci levels, the crucial question will arise: Is this descent indicative of a broader reversal, potentially driving the DXY below the 100 threshold, or is it a temporary retracement in anticipation of a subsequent rally that could propel the index above 107? This determination will be essential once we hit the specified target range, guiding our subsequent analysis and strategic approach.
Invalidation Point:
Our analysis would need reevaluation if the DXY breaks and closes above the monthly trend line. It's essential to wait for a retest of this break to confirm its validity. Such a development could alter the current outlook significantly, necessitating a strategic reassessment.
take a closer look on the 1M Frame chart below:
DXY - 4h - NEW UPDATEDXY - 4h - NEW UPDATE
Nothing bearish for now on 4h.
Testing resistance zone now.
US dollar index fluctuates and rises
Although the US dollar index will temporarily come under pressure at the central axis of 104.2 today, this central axis cannot be suppressed. There is a high probability that it will break upward and test the pressure position of 104.5-105; keep the slow bull trend moving upward! Therefore, yesterday’s transaction was also a huge profit! Those who were long in the US and Japan, and short in the Euro and British Pounds, all made a lot of profits!
U.S. dollar index: 1: The golden cross of the stochastic indicator of daily K is upward, which is the main bull signal; it is recommended to remain bullish; in terms of form, the continuous positive trend is upward; the central axis support position is around 103.6; in the short term, the bullish rise continues; 2:4 During the hour, the stochastic indicator is temporarily in a passive state, with a slow bullish upward trend; the support position is around 103.6;
To sum up: the short-term trend remains bullish during the day, and it is recommended to continue to choose to go long on dips. At the same time, it is bullish on the United States and Japan, bearish on the euro, and bearish on the pound; gold needs specific analysis and treatment;
In terms of data, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at around 5%; Powell's attitude is more hawkish
DXY Index will Go Down to next Support zone✅ DXY Index has succeeded in completing a Rising Wedge Pattern near the 🔴 Resistance zone($105.90-$104.64) 🔴.
🔨DXY also managed to break the lower line of the Rising Wedge Pattern and is currently breaking the 🟢 Support zone($104.30-$103.89) 🟢.
💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between two Consecutive Peaks .
🔔After breaking the 🟢 Support zone($104.30-$103.89) 🟢, I expect the DXY index to continue declining until the next 🟢Support zone($102.86-$102.420)🟢 .
U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
DXY Weekly Analysis "The DXY seems to be retracing from 100.615 to take liquidity at 104.565, and we've observed significant price reactions in the area since Monday, November 13, 23. This suggests that the DXY is currently showing efficiency and may be inclined to move lower towards 99.559.
However, reaching 99.559 might face resistance due to a "shield area," which could potentially cause the DXY to struggle on the downside. It's possible we'll witness the DXY lingering around the red shaded area at 101.910 for a while. If the price breaks below this level swiftly with large downward candles, we anticipate further downward movement towards 99.559. Otherwise, if it fails to break below 101.910, we'll provide an update accordingly."
DXY BEARS COULD RETEST 103.000 I often talk about the power of looking over our trades for those highs and lows over time, not because we can not trade but because we can be dynamic.
Well to put it simply, I am bullish on DXY this year but price failed to break above 105.00 and 104.000 respectively..
Price seem to be unfolding to bring about something beautiful on the chart, this might just be what we need, the world seem to always give us what we ask for, and instead of accepting the continuation of my previous bias, I accept the evolution of my self and for my sake and the world, I am not afraid to share this.
