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DXY Don't let the Fed mislead you. Long-term it's still bullish.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is taking punishment since the October high and this week in particular after the Fed Rate Decision. In times of price distortion by fundamentals, we always think it is useful to look into the longer term time-frames (1W and over) for technical patterns that withstand fundamental irregularities and filter out the news noise. In that sense, we present to you today the long-term (1W) outlook on DXY, which is trading within a Channel Up since the March 02 2009 High, which was effectively the bottom of the last major Bear Cycle, the U.S. Housing Crisis. Needless to say, such events are shape shifters for the markets and initiate dominant trends and patterns that are very difficult to break (at least without similar catalysts). This 14-year Channel Up is such a dominant pattern with 4 confirmed Higher Highs. The Sine Waves very accurately capture all of those Highs on their tops. After every such High, the DXY declines aggressively towards the Channel's bottom and after it forms it, it starts rising on Higher Lows, effectively forming a Channel Up (dotted lines). The current Channel Up is approaching its bottom and is technically the most optimal long-term buy opportunity. The previous two have hit at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level before declining again. That is now at 108.500 and this is our long-term target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingShot
6
DXY and 14 Levels: Understanding the Currency Pair's TargetsWhile Himino's speech is a crucial assumption for monetary policy and the longstanding dilemma regarding wages and prices, his journey is a speculative adventure on how the concept of Wages/Prices can depart from what he calls a frozen state. Next are deeper insights into how Himino perceives and examines wages and prices in relation to Japanese households, businesses, and financial institutions. Himino then guides us through four stages of development, covering price fluctuations, labor costs, buying and selling prices, and wages. Remarkably, as BOJ has demonstrated since 2016, Himino dismisses the Wages/Prices concept in stage 1, where uncontrollable prices arise from the West through imported inflation and market changes in oil prices. How to control imported inflation and oil prices without imposing an advanced concept like Autarky on Japan's prices. As Himino points out in some cases, the complexity of Wages, Prices, and satisfaction to prevent deflation may never materialize. Throughout the speech, Himino states that if the concept of wages/prices is satisfied, questions about monetary easing must be reconsidered. Whether intentionally or not, Himino throws USD/JPY and cross-currency pairs into the mix. A worrisome aspect of Himino's speech is how a speculative speech turns into psychological reports on negative interest rates, ultimately BOJ's most important December policy, the end of monetary easing. Currency analysts and outspoken figures on leading websites in our era reveal that they can no longer fix it. Stage 1: Businesses reflect higher import prices in selling prices. Stage 2: Businesses reflect a higher overall price in wages. Stage 3: Businesses reflect higher labor costs in selling prices. Stage 4: Business price policies become more diverse, enabling them to explore strategies for selling more attractive products and services with corresponding prices rather than just good products and services at low prices.
TVC:DXY
by Gwen_Humuna
Himino's Speech: A Deep Dive into Currency Pairs and Targets In a significant monetary policy speech, Himino introduced pivotal assumptions for wages, prices, and the prolonged dual downturn. The narrative explored how the concept of Wages/Prices might depart from what he termed a frozen state. Himino delved deeper into understanding and reviewing wages and prices concerning Japanese households, businesses, and financial institutions. He guided us through four developmental stages involving price fluctuations, labor costs, buying and selling prices, and wages. Notably, in stage 1, Himino acknowledged the complexity of controlling imported inflation and oil prices without imposing a progressive concept like Autarky on Japan's prices. Throughout the speech, Himino asserted that if the Wages/Prices concept is met, questions about monetary easing must be reexamined. Interestingly, Himino tactfully connected his speech to the USD/JPY movement and cross-currency pairs. A notable aspect of Himino's speech is how speculative remarks turned into psychological reports on the last meeting of BOJ in December, highlighting the importance of the new monetary policy and the cessation of easing. Financial analysts and opinion leaders expressed their inability to repair the situation. Himino outlined four stages: businesses reflecting higher import prices, businesses reflecting higher overall prices on wages, businesses reflecting higher labor costs in prices, and diversified price policies allowing businesses to explore strategies attractive in value instead of just focusing on low-priced goods and services. In summary, Himino's speech touched on crucial economic concepts and their implications, sparking discussions on the future of Japan's monetary policy and its impact on currency pairs.
TVC:DXY
by Larissa-Trader
1
DXY- Bearish under 104.20After making a low just under 100 mark in mid-July, TVC:DXY started a nice up trend and rose more than 7% in the next 2 months and reached a high of 107.20 at the beginning of October. The attempts for a new local high failed and, at the beginning of November the index has started to fall, recently making a low at 102.50. December's recovery is contained in a bearish continuation flag which was broken to the downside at this moment. My outlook for the index is bearish and a new wave of selling is the most probable scenario in its case. A daily close above 104.20, on the other hand, will put bulls in control and will change my outlook.
TVC:DXYShort
by Mihai_Iacob
DXY Index is Ready to Break the 🔴Resistance zones🔴✅It seems that the DXY Index finally managed to break the Descending Channel that it was in for more than one month . 💡I expect the DXY Index to take the help of the Uptrend line to break the Resistance zone ahead and it can break the minimum 🔴 Resistance zone($104.20-$103.98) 🔴. U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
18
🗺️DXY Index Roadmap🗺️⏰(4-hour time frame)⏰🏃‍♂️The DXY index has been moving in a Descending channel for a month . 🌊According to Elliott's theory , it seems that the DXY index has completed its 5 downward waves near the lower line of the descending channel after breaking the 🟢Support zone($103.78_$102.93) 🟢. 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between two Consecutive Valleys . 💡I expect the DXY index to move towards the upper line of the descending channel and in the first step, we have to wait for the middle line of the descending channel to be broken ( the middle line has already played the role of support and resistance ). U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
13
USD Weakens; Currencies ResilientThe Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the greenback against a basket of key currencies, extended its decline to 103.40 (from 103.75) during the holiday trading session. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperformed, causing USD/CAD to drop by 0.7% to 1.3615, hitting a one-month low. Canada's year-on-year retail sales for September surged to 2.7%, beating expectations of 2.0%. The British Pound (GBP/USD) rebounded to 1.2605 (from 1.2540), while the Euro (EUR/USD) rose to 1.0942 (from 1.0905). Germany's IFO Business Climate increased to 87.3 in November, beating forecasts but slightly lower than the previous reading of 86.9. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) extended gains to 0.6585 from 0.6560, nearing its three-month high. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) climbed to 0.6085 (from 0.6045) on strong sentiment from Australia and risk appetite. Against the Japanese Yen, the U.S. Dollar (USD/JPY) dipped to 149.45 from 149.65 in subdued trading. The greenback closed lower against Asian and emerging market currencies. USD/CNH (Dollar-Offshore Chinese Yuan) dropped to 7.1475 from 7.1515, and USD/THB (Dollar-Thai Baht) ended nearly unchanged at 35.40 (from 35.43). USD/SGD fell to 1.3405 from 1.3420. Global bond yields rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 4.47% (from 4.40%). The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 4.95% (from 4.90%). Germany's 10-year Bund yield rose by 3 basis points to 2.64%, and Japan's 10-year JGB yield spiked to 0.76% (from 0.71%). The U.S. stock markets closed stable on Thanksgiving, with the Dow rising 0.27% to 35,383 (from 35,287), and the S&P decreasing to 4,557 (from 4,560). Global equity markets showed mixed performance. The VIX, measuring U.S. stock market volatility, dropped to its lowest close since January 2020, reaching 12.46, a 2.7% decrease. Increasing expectations suggest that central bank tightening measures have concluded, contributing to calmer stock markets.
TVC:DXY
by damasbryant
DXY is Ready to Go UP🚀🏃‍♂️The DXY index is moving in the 🟢 Support zone($103.78_$102.93) 🟢 near the SMA(200) and 1 00_SMA(Weekly) . 🕯If we want to look at the last three daily candles of the DXY index from the candlestick pattern, we can see the reversal patterns of Hammer and Morning Star very well. 💡Also, another sign that shows us the end of the downward trend of the DXY index is the Falling Wedge Pattern in the RSI indicator .👇 🔔I expect the DXY index to trend higher in the coming days and attack the 🔴Resistance zone($105.88_$104.630)🔴 again. U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, Daily frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
6
DXY hit our 1 month target. Will it bounce soon?Exactly 1 month ago we made a bearish call on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) after the 1D RSI printed a series of Lower Highs, showcasing a Bearish Divergence: Target 1 (103.650) has been hit as the price touched the Pivot trend-line of the 11 month Megaphone pattern. We are moving Target 2 higher at 102.500, which is still near the 3.0 Fibonacci extension (the target of the previous 2 Bearish Sequences of the Megaphone) but is also at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern (dotted trend-lines) that may emerge. With the 1D RSI oversold on that target, as on the July 14 Low, we expect a rebound, and at least on the short-term we will target Resistance 1 (previous Lower High of the bearish sequence) at 104.550 on a potential contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
Fed stance and BOE rate cut expectations impact bond yields and After the latest monetary policy meeting, financial markets reacted to statements from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the Bank of England (BoE). These reactions led to large changes in bond yields and the value of the dollar. After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, markets tilted toward a cautious interpretation of Powell's remarks, even though the Fed maintained its hawkish stance. Despite recognition of the US's strong economic performance, concerns about tightening financial conditions and questions about the reliability of scatterplots have led to suggestions that US interest rates may have peaked. There is. This sentiment has led to lower bond yields and a decline in the value of the dollar. In contrast, three out of nine Monetary Policy Committee members at the BoE meeting supported a 25 basis point rate hike. However, rising UK unemployment and a forecast of zero growth in 2024 pose major challenges, with GBP/USD moving above previous support/resistance levels as the dollar weakens and US yields fall. Rose.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by AstronautPioneer
DXY Flashes of a correction. Ready to sell?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has formed Lower Highs following the October 03 High and is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the first level of Support and has been intact since August 10. This pattern started after the 1D RSI formed Lower Highs (September 27 and October 03), while the index was still on Higher Highs, thus a Bullish Divergence. The October 03 High is technically a Higher High on a 10-month Megaphone pattern. The same RSI Bullish Divergence emerged during the previous two tops (March 08 and May 31) and all produced a Channel Down that broke below the 1D MA50 and later made a -4.80% extension. As a result, we consider this still an early strong sell opportunity. This time however we also have the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) posing as a Support, so consider taking profit there if you see a bounce and candle closing above it. Thus, Target 1 is 103.650 (1D MA200), which is slightly above the Megaphone's pivot (has made numerous bounces both as Resistance and Support) and Target 2 is 102.350 (3.0 Fibonacci extension), which is slightly above the -4.85% projection. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYShort
by TradingShot
9
DXY - Fed Chairman: 'Inflation is still too high'Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that although inflation has cooled, the Fed remains committed to achieving its 2% target. In a speech in New York on October 19, Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that tightening policy had brought inflation back under control, but stressed that the Fed must remain cautious in pursuing its goals. . “Inflation remains too high. A few months of positive statistics are just the beginning of giving us confidence that inflation will return to target. But it remains to be seen how long these positive numbers will last, or how inflation will fare in the coming quarters. I don't know yet whether that will happen." He reiterated that Fed officials are "unanimously committed to bringing inflation down to 2%." The speech raises questions about the Fed's future policy after a series of consecutive interest rate hikes. The Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022, and the current interest rate is 5.25%. This is the highest level in 22 years. However, Chairman Powell believes that current interest rates are not too high. "Are the guidelines too strict? I don't think so," he said, but acknowledged that "rising interest rates are making things difficult for everyone." The Fed also highlighted recent good progress on its goals. The inflation rate as of September was 3.7%, a significant drop from over 9% in the middle of last year. "The latest figures show progress on both our goals of maximum employment and price stability. The economy remains in very good shape." But the comments came on the same day as reports showed the number of people applying for unemployment benefits last week was the lowest since the start of the year. This indicates that the labor market is tightening, which could put upward pressure on inflation. In recent days, a number of Fed officials have said the Fed may temporarily pause rate hikes. Even the most pro-tightening members expect the Fed to wait for further economic impact from its last rate hike. The market now expects the Fed to halt rate hikes, at least for now. The question is when will they start cutting interest rates? “If the environment remains risky and uncertain, we will be more cautious. The Fed will make decisions based on upcoming data, prospects and risks,” Powell said.
TVC:DXYLong
by TheLeader_WOLF