DXY set for big drop!DXY is in long term down trend. Currently price has broken out of the local resistance and grab strong liquidity and started to drop again giving us potential for further drop as the price has grabbed liquidity, highly likely DXY will continue to drop towards it's long term down trend
On the retest, of the resistance, a sell trade is high probable.
Dxysignals
DeGRAM | Dollar Index longDXY is moving sideways near the major support at 104 - 105.
Price action broke out of the descending channel, and it's decelerating while approaching the support.
We can see a double bottom and divergence.
We expect the resistance to be tested.
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Multi-Year Ascending Scallop on DXYDuring the DXY run-up this past year, I noticed repeated ascending scallop patterns that were continually validated by breakouts. These were often on the 5 to 15 min timeframe, but If you look at the ascent even on the hourly chart, you'll notice the pattern reveals itself repeatedly. If you're a believer in using fractals in your trading strategy, you won't be surprised to see that a clear ascending scallop appears to be developing on the longer time frame. I was initially looking for this pullback to find support at former resistance, but it has possibly regained its support from 2018-20. Given the repeated validations on shorter time frames, I'm looking for a break out above the Sept high (114.778) in early 2023 - if not sooner.
DXY Below the 1D MA200, 1st time since June 2021, targeting 100.It is no big secret that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is on a strong bearish reversal. It is something we've been warning the community about since September when we caught the exact top on the Channel and called for a massive reversal:
What however appears to have confirmed the bearish extension is the fact that the DXY broke and closed below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on Thursday, for the first time since June 17 2021. That alone is a very strong sell signal on the long-term, which as we outlined on previous analyses can target the 2.786 Fibonacci extension, which is a little over the 100.00 mark.
As you see, every Low since the September 28 top has been on a former Resistance Zone (green) and the November 15, November 28 ones hit the 1.786 Fib extension. The 2.786 Fib happens to ben just above also the Resistance Zone that made the March 07, 14 and 28 Highs.
On the short-term however, with the 1D RSI near the 30.000 oversold barrier, having formed a clear Support Zone since the November 11 Low, we might see a counter trend rebound to test the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Resistance. Especially if the 1D RSI breaks above its Lower Highs trend-line coming off the September 27 High.
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🔴 DXY - 3D (28.09.2022)🔴 DXY - USD Currency Index
TF: 3D
Side: Short
Pattern: Ascending Broadening Wedge
SL: $118 - $120
TP 1: $109.831
TP 2: $106.926
TP 3: $104.578
The ascending broadening wedge is a chart pattern that tends to disappear in a bear market.
Most often, you'll find them in a bull market with a downward breakout.
Monthly RSI is at 94 indicating oversold.
DXY- USD's drop should be over soonKeep in mind this is a long-term view looking at a weekly chart with the month of December just starting (Typically a weak USD month, so spikes in support are probable)
Since June 2021, the DXY index has started a bullish trend, with this trend becoming parabolic at the beginning of 2022.
Finally, after a high near the 115 figure, the index has started to correct and now is trading at 104.50, almost 10% under the high.
However, we should be very careful with shorting USD from now on, because, fundamentally, nothing has changed.
Technically speaking, as we can see from the main chart of the idea, DXY is now trading in extremely strong support given by the 2017 high, 2020 high, and also the high of 2022 high, just before this important break up.
Zooming in to the daily chart:
We can see, indeed that this is a zone, with the high from 2017 at 103.80 and the high of 2020 at 103, so around 1%.
Adding to this, the trend line started in min 2021 is also in this zone...
All this confluence of both fundamental/economical factors and technical ones should be a strong warning for USD bears and, although in December we can have spikes in this zone if you are a medium-term trader you should use this as a good buying opportunity for USD.
Best regards!
Mihai Iacob
DXY hit the 1D MA20 for the first time since June 2021!To be exact the last time the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) was on June 23 2021 and last time it traded below it June 16 2021. Needless to say, this is a key development for the long-term price action, as a candle closing below it, confirms the transition from a long-term bearish trend to a bullish one.
So far since the November 03 High, the price seems to be trading within a very aggressive Channel Down. As long as it holds and 1D MA200 breaks, we expect a sharp fall to the 2.786 Fibonacci extension (100.200). If the price breaks above the Channel Down, we expect a counter trend rebound, short-lived, to the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to be tested as Resistance levels.
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DXY can rise again above 109After the break under the last ascending trend line started in mid-August on 21st Oct and a retest of this break at the beginning of Nov, DXY continued its drop and also broke under horizontal support and the long-term trend line 5 days after. This important break led to aggressive losses and a test of the following horizontal support at the 105 zone.
Now the index is in recovery and a rise to the 109 zone could follow.
I'm bullish USD as long as last week's low is intact and selling rallies for EurUsd, AudUsd, NzdUsd and GbpUsd could be a goos strategy
DXY INDEX Next Possible Move#DXY_INDEX
Patterns ( H & S , ASCENDING TRIANGLE , ELLIOT WAVES ) giving us the Direction for the Confirmation that it can Follow Buy Trend
In Short Time Frame #STF we can expect an Retracement Somewhere Between ( 106.963 - 107.660 ) that will confirm the Next Trend
Next Target Possible FIBONACCI LEVEL - 38.20% or D D Z ( will React as Resistance in Short )
DXY Major bearish break-out ahead of 1D MA200 test!The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) eventually made the bearish break-out we expected as it broke below the Bullish Megaphone pattern that it has been trading in since January 2022:
As you see, the break below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which was almost on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone, was supporting this bullish pattern since June 16 2021! Naturally its break-out has been a major event and the price almost reached the next MA in line, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
We now see the price rebounding and it shouldn't come as a surprise as it hit exactly the 1.785 (blue) Fibonacci extension from the last low. Also there is the (green Support Zone) to consider from the May 13 High.
As a result, we expect a rebound to test either the 1D MA100 or 1D MA50 as Resistances and accumulate more sellers. A closing below the 1D MA200, would be a bearish continuation for us, targeting the 101.300 (May 30 Low).
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DXY Index New Possible Move#DXY ( Dollar Index )
- DESCENDING TRIANGLE Pattern formed Indicating the Trend Reversal and Break out of the Lower Trend Line
- BREAK OF STRUCTURE #BOS
- BEARISH Trend Continuation after the Break of DEMAND ZONE ( 110.237 - 109.477 )
- Buying Divergence in Long Time Frame #LTF
- Completed " 12 " Impulsive Wave and making its " 3 " Wave
Dollar Index Chart Analysis....
In this situation DXY chart Breakout symetric triangle pattern.So, market need
seems buy correction @ 107:830 and 110:150 resistance level. Then sell to 103.730 support
zone. If breakout 113.500 resistance level, then market Buy UP to 115.250 resistance level.
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reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals.
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Dollar Index Chart Analysis....
In this situation DXY chart Long tarm create bullish rectangle pattern.So, market
first buy correction @ 111:315 and 111:950 resistance level. Then sell to 109.400 support
zone. If breakout 113.080 resistance level, then market Buy UP to 115.250 resistance level.
AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of
reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals.
If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it,
write in the comments. I will be glad.
DXY: Still bullish but potential break of the 2022 patternThe DXY (US Dollar Index) broke last week below the 1D MA50 (blue) for the first time since August 11. Despite the drop, the 2022 Bullish Megaphone (or cylinder) is intact. However along with the emergence of a short-term Channel Down (Lower Highs/ Lower Lows), we see the 1W RSI turning on a Bearish Divergence as with Lower Highs and Lower Lows it is going against the Megaphone's Higher Highs/ Higher Lows.
The patterns shown on the chart must be respected and breakouts followed. We have denoted potential movements based on:
a) Break above the Channel Down = Bullish continuation within the Megaphone.
b) Break above the 1D MA50 = Bullish test of top of Channel Down.
c) Break below the Megaphone but still within the Channel Down = Bearish.
d) Break below the 1D MA100 (green) = Bearish outside the Megaphone, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange).
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20 REASON FOR SHORT DOLLER INDEX1 Structure analysis time frame DAILY
2 target time frame :DAILY
3 Current Move : IMPULSE
4 Entry Time Frame : H4
4.1 Entry TF Structure: BEARISH
4.2 entry move : RETRACEMENT
5 Suppot resistence base : H1 ORDER BLOCK BLOCK
6 FIB: DISCOUNTES AREA
7 candle Pattern: MOMENTUM ENGULFING
8 Chart Pattern: RISING WEDGE BREAKOUT
9 Volume : DRIED
10 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: SIDEWAYS
11 Volatility measure bollinger bands: POSSIABLE DIVERGENCE MOVE
12 strength ADX: BEARISH
13 Sentiment ROC: STRONG BUT ITS A DAILY CORRECTION
14 final comment : GOING DOWN FOR A FINAL TARGET
15 : decision SELL
16 Entry: 110.540
17 Stop losel: 111.090
18 Take profit: 108.260
19 Risk to reward Ratio: 1:4
Excepted Duration : 4 DAYS
DXY Can the Dollar keep falling ahead of next week's Fed Rate?This 1M chart focuses on the U.S. Dollar Index (green trend-line), which is seeing its first serious and sustainable pull-back after a long time as since September 28 it has been trading on Lower Highs and Lower Lows (not seen on this monthly time-frame though). This week the low completed a -4.50% from its peak, which is the strongest pull-back since the January 05 2021 bottom! With the upcoming Fed Rate Decision next week, the question is, is it possible for the USD to continue falling without the Fed changing the narrative, i.e. without continue hiking (raising the rates)?
A simple answer would be no. That is because in general terms since the mid 80s, the USD and the Fed Interest Rate (black trend-line) have been strongly correlated. It is no surprise that the USD's hyper strong rally this year started right when the Fed announced their hiking plan. Why they did that? In order to battle and bring down the raging inflation (blue trend-line) that came with the trillion dollar rescue packages during the COVID lockdowns. That is the key to our question before and provides a more detailed answer.
It is also important to consider the low unemployment rate (red trend-line) in this equation. As you see the only times in the past +30 years that we've had the Inflation peaking and pulling-back while the unemployment was bottom low and with the USD reversing, was when the Fed cut the Interest Rates after at least a year of hiking. So in order to complete the pattern we are currently in and see the USD extend its pull-back is to see the Fed cut back or at least adopt a more accommodative/ less aggressive hike with a specific horizon to stop. And the key to that as mentioned would be for them to be convinced that the current 3 month drop straight on the Inflation Rate is sustainable, thus under control.
Brace for a really really interesting week ahead.
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DXY is facing key support zoneSince the end of September, Dxy has had 3 attempts to conquer 114 figure and failed each time.
On Monday the index broke down the rising trend line that kept price elevated since August and an aggressive drop followed.
At this moment the price hovers above the support area (108-109 zone) and a resumption to the up move can follow.
Dips against 107.50 should be bought for a rise towards 112.
DXY Approaching multiple Support levels but no confirmed buy yetThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been pulling back since the September 28 High. Technically it has been trading within a long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern since the start of the year. Today the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 15. With the 1D RSI approaching the 41.00 Support, which has formed 3 out of the 4 total Lows of the Megaphone, this is starting to align major markers for a long-term buy that targets the next .382 Fibonacci extension in line, the 5.382 at 118.00.
For us it would be best to enter after confirmation as the selling pressure from the bond yields is strong and that confirmation can be given after the MACD makes a Bullish Cross. Until then it would be best to stay on the sidelines. As you see the Megaphone's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) is considerably lower than then 1D MA50 this time.
We are only willing to sell if the price breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is slightly below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone, giving us good tolerance levels hence a solid confirmation. In that case we will be targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
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