Dollar Index (DXY) still in uptrendsAccording to the DXY market chart, the uptrend continues, as it has since 1981. According to the GDP growth data of 1980 to 1982. GDP was negative for six of the 12 quarters. The worst was Q2 1980 at -8.0%.24 Unemployment rose to 10.8% in November and December 1982. It was above 10% for 10 months.
From 2020 to 2022, the GDP was negative for four of the eleven quarters. Q4 of 2022 is pending, but the overall GDP situation is the same; the rate hikes are higher to combat inflation. In 2020, unemployment during the COVID period was 14%, but overall after COVID, it was around 3.7%.
The market structure of DXY says the recent decline of DXY is a market uptrend signal. The support level is from December 1981 and the resistance is the same as in August 1981.
Dxysignals
Dxy- Reversal loomingAs I argued in the start of the year video, I expect a reversal from Usd pairs and a resumption to the long-term bearish trend (bullish DXY).
In Dxy's case, I draw attention to the important support that the index is trading in and, as we can see, so far this zone held.
Going further, as we can see from the posted chart, since mid-December, the index is trading in a range and we have a strong reversal 2 days ago.
Confirmation of reversal comes once the price is breaking above the upper boundary of the range at 104.50 and, in such an instance we can see a medium-term rise to 109 important resistance zone.
Sell pairs like EurUsd, GbpUsd, NzdUsd, and AudUsd can be a good trading strategy.
DXY 1D Death Cross emerging. More pain to come.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is about to form a Death Cross pattern on the 1D time-frame for the first time in 2.5 years (since July 03 2020). This is technically a very bearish formation (when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line)) and should continue the long-term bearish trend, a long-term move we caught at the very top as you can see on our September analysis:
As the 1D MACD is losing out on its bullish momentum as long as the price gets rejected on the 1D MA200, it will continue to fill the lower Fibonacci retracement levels (from the May 25 2021 Low). As you see those Fib levels match almost perfectly the previous Resistance levels (green zones) during the uptrend. Even though the 0.5 Fib (102.220) is next, our point of interest is the 0.618 Fib (99.210) that could make contact with the 1W MA200 (red trend-line)
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DXY set for big drop!DXY is in long term down trend. Currently price has broken out of the local resistance and grab strong liquidity and started to drop again giving us potential for further drop as the price has grabbed liquidity, highly likely DXY will continue to drop towards it's long term down trend
On the retest, of the resistance, a sell trade is high probable.
DeGRAM | Dollar Index longDXY is moving sideways near the major support at 104 - 105.
Price action broke out of the descending channel, and it's decelerating while approaching the support.
We can see a double bottom and divergence.
We expect the resistance to be tested.
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Multi-Year Ascending Scallop on DXYDuring the DXY run-up this past year, I noticed repeated ascending scallop patterns that were continually validated by breakouts. These were often on the 5 to 15 min timeframe, but If you look at the ascent even on the hourly chart, you'll notice the pattern reveals itself repeatedly. If you're a believer in using fractals in your trading strategy, you won't be surprised to see that a clear ascending scallop appears to be developing on the longer time frame. I was initially looking for this pullback to find support at former resistance, but it has possibly regained its support from 2018-20. Given the repeated validations on shorter time frames, I'm looking for a break out above the Sept high (114.778) in early 2023 - if not sooner.
DXY Below the 1D MA200, 1st time since June 2021, targeting 100.It is no big secret that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is on a strong bearish reversal. It is something we've been warning the community about since September when we caught the exact top on the Channel and called for a massive reversal:
What however appears to have confirmed the bearish extension is the fact that the DXY broke and closed below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on Thursday, for the first time since June 17 2021. That alone is a very strong sell signal on the long-term, which as we outlined on previous analyses can target the 2.786 Fibonacci extension, which is a little over the 100.00 mark.
As you see, every Low since the September 28 top has been on a former Resistance Zone (green) and the November 15, November 28 ones hit the 1.786 Fib extension. The 2.786 Fib happens to ben just above also the Resistance Zone that made the March 07, 14 and 28 Highs.
On the short-term however, with the 1D RSI near the 30.000 oversold barrier, having formed a clear Support Zone since the November 11 Low, we might see a counter trend rebound to test the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Resistance. Especially if the 1D RSI breaks above its Lower Highs trend-line coming off the September 27 High.
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🔴 DXY - 3D (28.09.2022)🔴 DXY - USD Currency Index
TF: 3D
Side: Short
Pattern: Ascending Broadening Wedge
SL: $118 - $120
TP 1: $109.831
TP 2: $106.926
TP 3: $104.578
The ascending broadening wedge is a chart pattern that tends to disappear in a bear market.
Most often, you'll find them in a bull market with a downward breakout.
Monthly RSI is at 94 indicating oversold.
DXY- USD's drop should be over soonKeep in mind this is a long-term view looking at a weekly chart with the month of December just starting (Typically a weak USD month, so spikes in support are probable)
Since June 2021, the DXY index has started a bullish trend, with this trend becoming parabolic at the beginning of 2022.
Finally, after a high near the 115 figure, the index has started to correct and now is trading at 104.50, almost 10% under the high.
However, we should be very careful with shorting USD from now on, because, fundamentally, nothing has changed.
Technically speaking, as we can see from the main chart of the idea, DXY is now trading in extremely strong support given by the 2017 high, 2020 high, and also the high of 2022 high, just before this important break up.
Zooming in to the daily chart:
We can see, indeed that this is a zone, with the high from 2017 at 103.80 and the high of 2020 at 103, so around 1%.
Adding to this, the trend line started in min 2021 is also in this zone...
All this confluence of both fundamental/economical factors and technical ones should be a strong warning for USD bears and, although in December we can have spikes in this zone if you are a medium-term trader you should use this as a good buying opportunity for USD.
Best regards!
Mihai Iacob
DXY hit the 1D MA20 for the first time since June 2021!To be exact the last time the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) was on June 23 2021 and last time it traded below it June 16 2021. Needless to say, this is a key development for the long-term price action, as a candle closing below it, confirms the transition from a long-term bearish trend to a bullish one.
So far since the November 03 High, the price seems to be trading within a very aggressive Channel Down. As long as it holds and 1D MA200 breaks, we expect a sharp fall to the 2.786 Fibonacci extension (100.200). If the price breaks above the Channel Down, we expect a counter trend rebound, short-lived, to the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to be tested as Resistance levels.
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DXY can rise again above 109After the break under the last ascending trend line started in mid-August on 21st Oct and a retest of this break at the beginning of Nov, DXY continued its drop and also broke under horizontal support and the long-term trend line 5 days after. This important break led to aggressive losses and a test of the following horizontal support at the 105 zone.
Now the index is in recovery and a rise to the 109 zone could follow.
I'm bullish USD as long as last week's low is intact and selling rallies for EurUsd, AudUsd, NzdUsd and GbpUsd could be a goos strategy
DXY INDEX Next Possible Move#DXY_INDEX
Patterns ( H & S , ASCENDING TRIANGLE , ELLIOT WAVES ) giving us the Direction for the Confirmation that it can Follow Buy Trend
In Short Time Frame #STF we can expect an Retracement Somewhere Between ( 106.963 - 107.660 ) that will confirm the Next Trend
Next Target Possible FIBONACCI LEVEL - 38.20% or D D Z ( will React as Resistance in Short )
DXY Major bearish break-out ahead of 1D MA200 test!The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) eventually made the bearish break-out we expected as it broke below the Bullish Megaphone pattern that it has been trading in since January 2022:
As you see, the break below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which was almost on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone, was supporting this bullish pattern since June 16 2021! Naturally its break-out has been a major event and the price almost reached the next MA in line, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
We now see the price rebounding and it shouldn't come as a surprise as it hit exactly the 1.785 (blue) Fibonacci extension from the last low. Also there is the (green Support Zone) to consider from the May 13 High.
As a result, we expect a rebound to test either the 1D MA100 or 1D MA50 as Resistances and accumulate more sellers. A closing below the 1D MA200, would be a bearish continuation for us, targeting the 101.300 (May 30 Low).
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DXY Index New Possible Move#DXY ( Dollar Index )
- DESCENDING TRIANGLE Pattern formed Indicating the Trend Reversal and Break out of the Lower Trend Line
- BREAK OF STRUCTURE #BOS
- BEARISH Trend Continuation after the Break of DEMAND ZONE ( 110.237 - 109.477 )
- Buying Divergence in Long Time Frame #LTF
- Completed " 12 " Impulsive Wave and making its " 3 " Wave
Dollar Index Chart Analysis....
In this situation DXY chart Breakout symetric triangle pattern.So, market need
seems buy correction @ 107:830 and 110:150 resistance level. Then sell to 103.730 support
zone. If breakout 113.500 resistance level, then market Buy UP to 115.250 resistance level.
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reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals.
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Dollar Index Chart Analysis....
In this situation DXY chart Long tarm create bullish rectangle pattern.So, market
first buy correction @ 111:315 and 111:950 resistance level. Then sell to 109.400 support
zone. If breakout 113.080 resistance level, then market Buy UP to 115.250 resistance level.
AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of
reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals.
If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it,
write in the comments. I will be glad.
DXY: Still bullish but potential break of the 2022 patternThe DXY (US Dollar Index) broke last week below the 1D MA50 (blue) for the first time since August 11. Despite the drop, the 2022 Bullish Megaphone (or cylinder) is intact. However along with the emergence of a short-term Channel Down (Lower Highs/ Lower Lows), we see the 1W RSI turning on a Bearish Divergence as with Lower Highs and Lower Lows it is going against the Megaphone's Higher Highs/ Higher Lows.
The patterns shown on the chart must be respected and breakouts followed. We have denoted potential movements based on:
a) Break above the Channel Down = Bullish continuation within the Megaphone.
b) Break above the 1D MA50 = Bullish test of top of Channel Down.
c) Break below the Megaphone but still within the Channel Down = Bearish.
d) Break below the 1D MA100 (green) = Bearish outside the Megaphone, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange).
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20 REASON FOR SHORT DOLLER INDEX1 Structure analysis time frame DAILY
2 target time frame :DAILY
3 Current Move : IMPULSE
4 Entry Time Frame : H4
4.1 Entry TF Structure: BEARISH
4.2 entry move : RETRACEMENT
5 Suppot resistence base : H1 ORDER BLOCK BLOCK
6 FIB: DISCOUNTES AREA
7 candle Pattern: MOMENTUM ENGULFING
8 Chart Pattern: RISING WEDGE BREAKOUT
9 Volume : DRIED
10 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: SIDEWAYS
11 Volatility measure bollinger bands: POSSIABLE DIVERGENCE MOVE
12 strength ADX: BEARISH
13 Sentiment ROC: STRONG BUT ITS A DAILY CORRECTION
14 final comment : GOING DOWN FOR A FINAL TARGET
15 : decision SELL
16 Entry: 110.540
17 Stop losel: 111.090
18 Take profit: 108.260
19 Risk to reward Ratio: 1:4
Excepted Duration : 4 DAYS
DXY Can the Dollar keep falling ahead of next week's Fed Rate?This 1M chart focuses on the U.S. Dollar Index (green trend-line), which is seeing its first serious and sustainable pull-back after a long time as since September 28 it has been trading on Lower Highs and Lower Lows (not seen on this monthly time-frame though). This week the low completed a -4.50% from its peak, which is the strongest pull-back since the January 05 2021 bottom! With the upcoming Fed Rate Decision next week, the question is, is it possible for the USD to continue falling without the Fed changing the narrative, i.e. without continue hiking (raising the rates)?
A simple answer would be no. That is because in general terms since the mid 80s, the USD and the Fed Interest Rate (black trend-line) have been strongly correlated. It is no surprise that the USD's hyper strong rally this year started right when the Fed announced their hiking plan. Why they did that? In order to battle and bring down the raging inflation (blue trend-line) that came with the trillion dollar rescue packages during the COVID lockdowns. That is the key to our question before and provides a more detailed answer.
It is also important to consider the low unemployment rate (red trend-line) in this equation. As you see the only times in the past +30 years that we've had the Inflation peaking and pulling-back while the unemployment was bottom low and with the USD reversing, was when the Fed cut the Interest Rates after at least a year of hiking. So in order to complete the pattern we are currently in and see the USD extend its pull-back is to see the Fed cut back or at least adopt a more accommodative/ less aggressive hike with a specific horizon to stop. And the key to that as mentioned would be for them to be convinced that the current 3 month drop straight on the Inflation Rate is sustainable, thus under control.
Brace for a really really interesting week ahead.
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