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Dxysignals

DXY Critical level that will decide the 1 year trendThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been bullish long-term for a whole year since late May 2021. The recent Golden Cross on the 1W time-frame (when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line)), was last seen in April 2019 with the index having almost another year of uptrend after that. However, on a greater scale, the Megaphone pattern (Higher Highs and Higher Lows) since 2018 resembles that of the 1990s. With the price only a few points below the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the pattern, a bearish reversal becomes increasingly likely to take place. However, in 1W RSI terms, it appears that there is still another 1-2 months left before a pull-back to the 1W MA50. If the price gets rejected on the Higher Highs though, expect a stronger sell-off to the 1W MA200, before re-evaluation (in October 1998 that caused a major rebound). The macro-economic setting is much different now in comparison to then, as today the stock market is already on a 6 month correction (with market participants calling for a recession) while in 1998 we were 2 years before the Dotcom crash and the subsequent two year recession. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
6
DXY Testing the RSI Support that started the 2021/22 rallyThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit yesterday the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 23. Today's rebound simply shows why this MA level is considered such an important short/ medium-term Support. As long as it holds, expect a rebound to the upper Fibonacci extension levels of 2.0 and 2.5 that previously led to the May 13 High. A weekly closing below the 1D MA50 though would mean an extension of this correction towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which acted as a Support on Feb 10 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been untouched since June 23 2021. Pay very close attention to the RSI on the 1W time-frame on the pane below the chart as it is testing the Higher Lows trend-line that practically started this aggressive multi-month trend back in January 2021. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
8
DXY Biggest hike since 2000 enough to turn the USDollar bearish?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) had a sudden stop to its rally yesterday following the 0.50% Rate Hike by the Fed, the strongest since 2000. This sudden stop took place at no other level than the 103.850 (just above actually) 5 year Resistance, which was formed by the January 2017 High. Failure to close above it on the 1W time-frame, can technically be seen as a rejection on a long-term scale. Can this be enough to turn the sentiment from long-term bullish to bearish? Well there are some parameters to consider. ** The markets price events before they happen ** First, the markets tend to price such important macro-economic events, days even weeks prior to an announcement. The market speculated this 0.5 basis points interest rate hike, when Jerome Powell first released it as a possibility. The markets digested the news and now we see the results. On this 1W chart, the orange trend-line represents the Effective Federal Funds Rate. Last time it started moving aggressively, i.e. Fed raising rates, was in December 2016. This was a time that the Fed decided to commit on an aggressive hike policy in order to effectively end the QE era that helped the economy recover from the 2008/09 subprime mortgage crisis. At that aggressive round of hiking, the DXY was exactly on the (Resistance) level it currently reached. This cross-asset analysis shows that if the Fed commits, as they've mentioned, to a new aggressive round of rate raising in order to battle an inflation that is out of hand, the U.S. Dollar turning bearish is a real possibility. Note that as the chart shows, even though the rates continued to rise for another year, that DXY Cycle ended in February 2018. That is because first, as mentioned above, the markets tend to discount results ahead of news, and second it was around the time of the U.S. - China Trade War that shook economies worldwide. ** The stunning tendency between DXY Cycles ** The charts is also technically informative in the sense that each of the previous two Cycles that got created after rejections on or near the 103.850 Resistance, lasted for 61 weeks (427 days) until they started to reverse upwards again. Such an exact similarity is striking. Using that as guide, we can assume that the new bearish Cycle that DXY may begin, could last until roughly June 2023, where a Higher Lows trend-line is waiting to Support. Notice the critical part that the Fibonacci retracement levels have in shaping Highs and Lows (Resistances and Supports) these past 6 years. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXYShort
by TradingShot
11
#DXY is giving us a hint for the upcoming move in the market.I'll keep it short and simple. Overextended rally in DXY adding up to bearish divergence in RSI and similar fractals are indicating a rejection at the current level. Rising wedge channels are normally bearish in nature. A reversal candle will trigger the move and eventually, the traditional market will move along with Crypto Market. The index must close below the red MA for the final confirmation. Although we are at a decisive point, the patterns are indicating a potential bearish move. Invalidation:- Break and close above the upper resistance trendline will invalidate the chart. Let me know what you think. Do consider hitting the like button if you like my content, Thank you. #PEACE
TVC:DXYShort
by Cryptorphic
6
DXY The 1 year Pitchfork approach points to a correctionA popular yet often overlooked technical took is the Pitchfork. On this analysis I have applied it on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 1D time-frame. The dotted line is the median, with the dashed being the 0.5 Fib and the black straight being the 0.75 Fib. As you see the latter two are used as Support (on the lower) and Resistance (on the upper) levels respectively. Right now the price got rejected on the upper 0.75 Resistance Fib. Last time, on March 07, that caused a pull-back and 1 month consolidation. Basically the whole price action since December 2021, resembles the sequence of July - November 2021. Even the RSI fractals are similar. If we continue to repeat this, then the index is bound for a correction back to the lower Support 0.75 Fib. Short-term Support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXYShort
by TradingShot
5