Dxysignals
DXY Downlink formationDXY Downlink formation
Tipping point with down channel seduction
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DXY possible drop!!DXY ( 4h) has broken the support to the downside and opened with a gap down today. The price is just below daily support and 20EMA. As there is head and shoulder on the daily, There is a possibility of dropping the price to the downside to monthly support. As the monthly candle close, we could drastically drop as per price action formation.
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DXY Peak formation on RSI and invalidation levelThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) , hit (and broke) last week the 3.5 Fibonacci extension level from the market bottom. The last time that happened while the RSI turned sideways above the 70.000 overbought level was in Q4 2014 - Q1 2015. The price then pulled-back to the 2.5 Fib level and stayed neutral until it hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
However we have to account for the possibility of the pattern following the +27% rise pattern, which gives a top around 113.500. As a result if you take such a trade it would be best to account for an invalidation level exactly on last week's High.
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DXY Solid trade set-ups on break-outs.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is on the 3rd straight green 1D candle, a rather strong rise that is about to test the 105.805 Resistance. A closing about could be a confirmed buy signal with the 1.236 Fibonacci extension as a Target (106.900) as this was the target on previous similar set-ups.
However, the price action since the May 13 High resembles an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern on a bullish trend and technically those are seen on tops. A low risk sell trade would be upon a 1D close below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been holding since February 23, aimed at the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Similarly a candle close below the 1D MA100, targets the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Notice the Fibonacci levels involved for additional Support/ Resistance pressure. Also the 1D RSI offers a Higher Lows trend-lines for ideal buy entries.
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DXY create Symmetrical triangle pattern.So,Waite to breakoutIn this situation DXY chart create Symmetrical Triangle pattern.
So, market need to breakout and Waite for candle conformation. If
breakout 104.800 resistance level then market will go 105.500 level &
if breakout 103.850 support zone then market will fall to 103.600 level.
DXY Critical level that will decide the 1 year trendThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been bullish long-term for a whole year since late May 2021. The recent Golden Cross on the 1W time-frame (when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line)), was last seen in April 2019 with the index having almost another year of uptrend after that.
However, on a greater scale, the Megaphone pattern (Higher Highs and Higher Lows) since 2018 resembles that of the 1990s. With the price only a few points below the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the pattern, a bearish reversal becomes increasingly likely to take place. However, in 1W RSI terms, it appears that there is still another 1-2 months left before a pull-back to the 1W MA50. If the price gets rejected on the Higher Highs though, expect a stronger sell-off to the 1W MA200, before re-evaluation (in October 1998 that caused a major rebound).
The macro-economic setting is much different now in comparison to then, as today the stock market is already on a 6 month correction (with market participants calling for a recession) while in 1998 we were 2 years before the Dotcom crash and the subsequent two year recession.
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DXY Testing the RSI Support that started the 2021/22 rallyThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit yesterday the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 23. Today's rebound simply shows why this MA level is considered such an important short/ medium-term Support. As long as it holds, expect a rebound to the upper Fibonacci extension levels of 2.0 and 2.5 that previously led to the May 13 High.
A weekly closing below the 1D MA50 though would mean an extension of this correction towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which acted as a Support on Feb 10 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been untouched since June 23 2021.
Pay very close attention to the RSI on the 1W time-frame on the pane below the chart as it is testing the Higher Lows trend-line that practically started this aggressive multi-month trend back in January 2021.
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GOING LONG ON DXY. LONG TERM SWINGSpeculations with respect to technical analysis is seen that DXY has prospect of going bull,
$100 and $98 is seen as the nice entry for a bullish run,
TP @ $114
DISCLAIMERS
This is not a financial advice.
Trade with caution.
Use Proper Risk Management.
Martin I. Sylvester
Financial Market Analyst