Dxysignals
Dxy- Stalling near hightsAfter the strong reversal from near the ascending trend line, DXY managed to get back above resistance, but the index is lacking conviction and is unable to continue.
Instead, DXY is stalling and is putting in Pin Bars on our daily chart.
This can be an indication that a correction could follow and a break back under resistance, now support would bring confirmation.
I've become slightly bearish on USD for now.
Wait and see is my approach on Usd pairs
DXY Two levels it can reverse massively on this 30 year Channel!The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been rising all year in the aftermath of the Fed to decide to raise the interest rates in their battle to lower the extreme levels of inflation. As a result, the USD has been gaining against the basket of major world currencies. From a technical perspective though, the time is approaching that it may reverse massively downwards as it is meeting two key long-term rejection levels.
The first and most important is the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 30 year Channel Down pattern, which started after the August 1992 Low! As you see this Channel has so far two Lower Lows (green arrows) and two Lower Highs (red arrows). The most recent of the latter was printed on last week's 1W candle. The price hit the top of the Channel Down and got instantly rejected. However, with this week's worse than expected CPI, we see the current 1W candle in green, attempting to hit the top again. Until we close a weekly candle above it, we have to consider this level as a possible long-term trend reversal/ rejection for the DXY.
If the USD Index does break and close above it, then we will come across very quickly another key long-term rejection level, and that is the Higher Highs trend-line of the 13 year Channel Up pattern that started in the aftermath of the Housing Crisis in 2009. As you see, so far the Higher Highs trend-line has made three contacts with that line (red Flags). The next (if the Channel Down breaks) should be around 114.00. That is the second long-term candidate level for rejection.
This historic price action shows that potentially, going short at the current levels on the U.S. Dollar, offers a low Risk high Return set-up, at least on the long-term. Of course, the macroeconomic environment has to keep up in order for the technicals to play out, especially being in this highly inflationary environment. A key factor is the Fed's Interest Rate (blue trend-line). As mentioned above, this has been rising since the start of the year, causing this parabolic rally on DXY. We see that in the course of the past 30 years, every time the Interest Rate dropped, the DXY was following downwards.
As a result, if the Fed decides by the start of next year that the job has been done and that inflation may be (partially at least) controlled, the can start cutting the Interest Rate back in order to stimulate the stock market, which has been suffering all year long. A mere hint/ announcement by the Fed of such intention early, can cause the DXY to reverse before the Interest Rate even starts decreasing, as it happened after 2006. The times we live in are unique in terms of the fundamentals and more likely than not the battle to control an inflation caused by years of abuse can take an equal amount to years.
At last, if you are a long-term investor looking for a confirmed level to sell, that would be below the Higher Lows trend-line, as it happened in December 2002.
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DXY can rise to 112 and even aboveSince the beginning of the year, the trend for the USD is up and, after breaking above the important phycological 100 figure, the index is trading in an ascending channel and every correction on Usd is bought.
Recently, the index reached 110 and a correction followed, this drop was quickly reversed once CPI data were released and the price is now again above 108.50-1.09 zone resistance.
I expect a new leg up from Usd and 112 can be the target.
Pairs like EurUsd and GbpUsd should be sold on eventually rallies
DXY is on steroids 😂🤦♂️Dxy is moving in an uptrend channel for more than eight months so based on this channel I guess he will stop at 111.60 then it will start to fall to price level 108 then we can see if it's going to continue in this uptrend channel or will it fall.💵💰
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DXY create bearish Harmonic pattern. So, Short sell, long buy
In this situation DXY chart Bearish Harmonic pattern .
So, market need to seems SELL correction at 109.327 or 108.500 support
level. Then Market fully BUY to 109.900 ; 110.240 & 110.500 resistance level.
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reliance on the information contained within this channel including
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DXY has is preparing to take off!!DXY has opened with a big gap in the monthly perspective. With the long-term bullish market structure, DXY is preparing to continue its uptrend. It is a high probability that DXY will test the support of this structure and will bounce off to the upside.
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DXY can break resistanceSince Monday, DXY is consolidating just under 109 technical resistance and 110 important figure.
From February the trend is strongly and clearly up and I expect this to continue.
The confluence around 106.50 offers strong support and dips towards this zone should be bought in anticipation of an up break.
My pairs in focus are:EurUsd&GbpUsd for short trades and UsdCad for long trades
DXY create bullish Rectangle pattern. So, Short sell, long buy
In this situation DXY chart Hopefully create bullish Rectangle pattern .
So, market need seems to SELL correction at 108.600 & 108.400 support
level. Then Market fully BUY to 109.550 & 110.200 resistance level.
AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of
reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals.
If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it,
write in the comments. I will be glad.
DXY critical test on the multi-year pivot. Huge sell ahead?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit last month a Pivot trend-line (2) and so far is unable to break it. This pivot has started as a Support back in August 1992 and then turned into a Resistance since May 2004 and has been such up to this date.
As you see, the very same pattern with a Pivot trend-line (1), had a similar effect on the multi-year trend from October 1978 to June 2001, which seems to be a similar point to where we are at today.
See how every such rejection on the Pivot as a Resistance has been brutal and the sell-off have been very quick and strong. If that is the case this time too, we should be expecting now a rejection and a massive pull-back to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at least, within 2023.
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DXY Approaching the the July Resistance. Critical test.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is on a 2 week uptrend following our last analysis, centered around the 2022 Bullish Megaphone:
As you see, both the Higher Lows (1) trend-line (the Megaphone's bottom) and the 1D RSI Support held, and the price initiated this strong rebound. The critical level is now the 109.300 Resistance of the July 14 High and the RSI Resistance Zone. A break above both, would be a bullish break-out signal, targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, a little below 114.000, which is the Fib level that all Higher Highs within the Megaphone have targeted.
On the other hand, only a break below the Higher Lows trend-line and the 1D RSI Support, can be taken as a bearish break-out signal, in which case we can target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since June 17 2021.
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DXY create Elliott wave.So Short sell, long buy
In this situation DXY chart Hopefully create Elliott wave.
So, market need seems to SELL correction at 107.700 support
zone. Then Market fully BUY to 109.300 resistance level.
AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of
reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals.
If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
DXY The critical 1D MA50 is so far holding. What's next?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 6 straight days, so far successfully as it is holding. Practically, this has been the DXY's Support since February 23 and ignoring two short breaks, since June 16 2021.
There are two Higher Lows trend-lines involved (1 and 2) but technically a break and 1D candle close below the 1D MA50 should ignore Higher Lows 1 and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). However in order to see that happen, the 1D RSI Support has to break (in effect since February 03). Until that happens, a rebound is more likely (as it has been happening for months), targeting the 109.300 Resistance.
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DXY Downlink formationDXY Downlink formation
Tipping point with down channel seduction
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