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DXY Biggest hike since 2000 enough to turn the USDollar bearish?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) had a sudden stop to its rally yesterday following the 0.50% Rate Hike by the Fed, the strongest since 2000. This sudden stop took place at no other level than the 103.850 (just above actually) 5 year Resistance, which was formed by the January 2017 High. Failure to close above it on the 1W time-frame, can technically be seen as a rejection on a long-term scale. Can this be enough to turn the sentiment from long-term bullish to bearish? Well there are some parameters to consider. ** The markets price events before they happen ** First, the markets tend to price such important macro-economic events, days even weeks prior to an announcement. The market speculated this 0.5 basis points interest rate hike, when Jerome Powell first released it as a possibility. The markets digested the news and now we see the results. On this 1W chart, the orange trend-line represents the Effective Federal Funds Rate. Last time it started moving aggressively, i.e. Fed raising rates, was in December 2016. This was a time that the Fed decided to commit on an aggressive hike policy in order to effectively end the QE era that helped the economy recover from the 2008/09 subprime mortgage crisis. At that aggressive round of hiking, the DXY was exactly on the (Resistance) level it currently reached. This cross-asset analysis shows that if the Fed commits, as they've mentioned, to a new aggressive round of rate raising in order to battle an inflation that is out of hand, the U.S. Dollar turning bearish is a real possibility. Note that as the chart shows, even though the rates continued to rise for another year, that DXY Cycle ended in February 2018. That is because first, as mentioned above, the markets tend to discount results ahead of news, and second it was around the time of the U.S. - China Trade War that shook economies worldwide. ** The stunning tendency between DXY Cycles ** The charts is also technically informative in the sense that each of the previous two Cycles that got created after rejections on or near the 103.850 Resistance, lasted for 61 weeks (427 days) until they started to reverse upwards again. Such an exact similarity is striking. Using that as guide, we can assume that the new bearish Cycle that DXY may begin, could last until roughly June 2023, where a Higher Lows trend-line is waiting to Support. Notice the critical part that the Fibonacci retracement levels have in shaping Highs and Lows (Resistances and Supports) these past 6 years. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXYShort
by TradingShot
11
#DXY is giving us a hint for the upcoming move in the market.I'll keep it short and simple. Overextended rally in DXY adding up to bearish divergence in RSI and similar fractals are indicating a rejection at the current level. Rising wedge channels are normally bearish in nature. A reversal candle will trigger the move and eventually, the traditional market will move along with Crypto Market. The index must close below the red MA for the final confirmation. Although we are at a decisive point, the patterns are indicating a potential bearish move. Invalidation:- Break and close above the upper resistance trendline will invalidate the chart. Let me know what you think. Do consider hitting the like button if you like my content, Thank you. #PEACE
TVC:DXYShort
by Cryptorphic
6
DXY The 1 year Pitchfork approach points to a correctionA popular yet often overlooked technical took is the Pitchfork. On this analysis I have applied it on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 1D time-frame. The dotted line is the median, with the dashed being the 0.5 Fib and the black straight being the 0.75 Fib. As you see the latter two are used as Support (on the lower) and Resistance (on the upper) levels respectively. Right now the price got rejected on the upper 0.75 Resistance Fib. Last time, on March 07, that caused a pull-back and 1 month consolidation. Basically the whole price action since December 2021, resembles the sequence of July - November 2021. Even the RSI fractals are similar. If we continue to repeat this, then the index is bound for a correction back to the lower Support 0.75 Fib. Short-term Support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXYShort
by TradingShot
5
DXY seeking the 1D MA100 for SupportThis is an update to the core analysis I did on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) two weeks ago: The price remains neutral within the wider consolidation of the green Rectangle after the peak on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. As mentioned previously, the previous such consolidation broke downwards in order to confirm the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) yet again as a Support, which is holding since June 16 2021. As long as this holds, expect the extension of the long-term uptrend on a new slow rise to the next 2.618 Fib extension (we will measure the exact value after/ if it makes the 1D MA100 bottom. A 1D candle closing below the 1D MA100 however, would risk lower level, more particularly the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Note how the 1D RSI posts a cyclical behavioral pattern. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
DXY Trading plan within and around the TriangleThe U.S. Dollar Index just got rejected on the current 4H candle on the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the March 07 High. As long as this holds, the price should drop towards the 97.730 Support, which has already held twice, thus creating a Triangle pattern. A break below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) justifies further selling towards the Lower Higher Lows trend-line (dashed), while a break above the Triangle's Lower Highs, is a break-out buy signal with a target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (100.200). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
2
DXY topped, is consolidating and targeting the 1D MA100The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading sideways since the March 07 High. This is no unfamiliar territory for the USD as it has last consolidated from November 24 to December 28 2021. The sequence that preceded that consolidation (green) both in price action and 1D RSI terms, is similar to the one that precedes the current consolidation. The former consolidation ended with a break downwards that dropped to a January 14 2022 low exactly on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The 1D MA100 has been unbroken since June 16 2021, forming arguably the strongest long-term Support level. At the moment the 1D MA100 is at 96.112 and rising. Depending on how long this consolidation will last, a contact can be made around 97.000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
2
DXY HAS CREATED ITS GRAVE!DXY has been SKYROCKETING to the upside recently and im here to show you guys why thats a bad thing for DXY! In this chart, you can see that DXY has been in this downtrend channel since 2015. I know it looks like its breaking out of it but thats not the case since it also seemed like that in 2017 and 2020. Actually, this time its even quite possible to break the downtrend channel to the DOWNSIDE! DXY has created a BEARISH DIVERGANCE ON THE MONTHLY!! As you see the, the rsi is going above 2020 while DXY was higher in 2020 than now. That is called a bearish divergance. 2 scenarios can play out at this point: either DXY gets rejected by the downtrend channel or it goes up to 103 resistance like it did 2017 and 2020 and crash then. Crypto and stocks bullseason is on the verge!! If DXY breaks the downtrend channel to the downside, it will be a very huge bullmarket!
TVC:DXYShort
by blz_legend
DXY- On its way to 102? (weekly outlook)Since 2008 low from 72, DXY has traded upwards, and after 2015 break of 90 resistance, this zone has become a strong support, with the price reversing from here in 2018 and twice in 2021. Recently the price also has broken above 95 interim resistance and seems determined to challenge 102 resistance. Looking at the "power" of USD this 4% rise is very probable to happen by summer and swing traders can look to sell USD pairs like EurUsd, GbpUsd, NzdUsd, and AudUsd. P.S: This is a clear example of Gold positively correlated with USD. So, don't trade the correlation (or what you think it is), trade the asset!
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
4
DXY inside a Channel Up. Action plan depending on break-outs.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been on Higher Highs and Higher Lows for the whole part of the year so far. Today the price hit and has so far been rejected on the Higher Highs trend-line again. As long as the price closes below on the 1D time-frame, it is more likely to see a pull-back towards the Internal Higher Lows (dashed line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). In my opinion the key is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). This is a Support level which DXY hasn't closed a 1D candle below since June 16 2021. This appears to be the pivot between bullish and bearish long-term. A break below that level should quickly test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). However if the price breaks above the Higher Highs trend-line, which under the current unstable geopolitical climate is very probable, expect a rally near the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is around 100.00. Notice how the 1D RSI has been on Lower Highs while the price was on Higher Highs, indicating here a Bearish Divergence. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
5