Judgement time for WTI Oil according to the DXY.Simple chart comparison on a +12 year time span. Oil on a Channel Down, DXY on a Channel Up. Every time DXY kept its Support (green zones), Oil failed to make a Higher High and break its Lower Highs trend-line.
Oil hasn't made a Higher High since July 2008 and the Sub-prime mortgage crisis. Is it time to do so, if DXY breaks its Support this time? Thoughts???
Most recent WTI idea:
Most recent DXY idea:
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Dxysignals
DXY- To continue its correctionAs I expected, DXY broke above short term wedge resistance and reached my first target.
Now the index looks determined to continue its upward correction and 92 could be the target for such a correction.
In my opinion rallies in EurUsd, NzdUsd, AudUsd should be sold, and also a buy trade for UsdCad could be a good choice
DXY conflicting patterns on the 4H and 1D time-frames.The U.S. Dollar index is consolidating for the past 2 days within the MA50 and MA200 on the 4H time-frame (chart on the left). The RSI is indicating that such consolidating, within a Triangle pattern, is similar to the December 22-25 sequence, which after it broke ended lower with a new Lower Low on the long-term Channel Down pattern that DXY is in since late September.
On the 1D time-frame though (chart on the right), both the RSI and MACD indicators show that we could be repeating the September rise (which eventually led to the start of the Channel Down). Currently the 1D MA50 is the Resistance, but on the September rise it broke and peaked a few days later.
All the above suggest the DXY is still a sell but traders should reserve an additional sell for a potential peak near 92.000. Which pattern do you think will prevail?
Most recent DXY signal:
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DXY is bottomingWhat is clear is that USD is weak but also is clear that the market can't be unidirectional indefinitely.
Usd counterparts started the year strong but the new highs (and new lows for the index) are marginal and lacking power. So far all that USD could do was to have some intraday correction and I think this is about to change and we will have a lasting correction.
That being said I will look for opportunities of buying USD and my preferred pairs are EurUsd, AudUsd and NzdUsd for short and UsdJpy&UsdCad for long trades
DXY- Dollar bears should be very careful now!I was pretty bearish USD till now and I wasn't disappointed by now and although in the long run I maintain my bearish outlook on DXY, at this point a drastic correction can be just around the corner.
With DXY approaching a strong support and old congestion zone around 89, I think Dollar bears should be very careful.
From the risk point of view also I can't see a favorable trade on the short side so, in my opinion, we should look to buy USD especially with NZD,AUD and CAD
Will the stock market decline if DXY holds this Support?This is a simple yet very informative study showing a comparison of Dow Jones against DXY (U.S. Dollar Index).
Since early 2015 the DXY has been ranging (wide range but still range) and especially after 2017 it established a clear Resistance (103.800 - 103.000) and Support (88.200 - 88.900) Zone. Every time it hit the Resistance and got rejected (Jan 2017, March 2020), Dow Jones started rising aggressively. Similarly when DXY hit the Support Zone (Feb 2018), Dow Jones (though volatile) made a new Low.
The DXY is currently very close to that Support Zone. Will another rebound here kick-start selling on the stock market? That chart certainly shows that. However we have to consider the (much longer) Cycles of DXY on a decade span (I posted that chart earlier today), which suggest that there are increased chances of breaking this Support.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Will DXY hold this Support and cause selling on stocks or the opposite? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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U.S. DOLLAR INDEX We haven't seen the cyclical bottom yetFollowing the stimulus news this week, there is a lot of talk around the USD and whether it will rise or fall as a result of the rescue package. I decided that it may be the perfect time to look at the (much) larger picture to see where we stand. This is a simple study on the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) on the 1M time-frame, representing its Cycles in the span of decades.
As you see it is the perfect example of Sine Waves. There are very clear Cycle Tops and Bottoms since the 1960s. The Tops appear to be on average 190 months (almost 16 years), while the Bottoms 175 on avg so far, but based on the since waves they may follow a +20 bar sequence. As a result, while the next top for the DXY (which I have to add at this point that the sequence is Lower Highs) may be around 2032/33, the next Bottom (based on the waves) should be around 2025. That means that we are still a long way of seeing the cyclical bottom and the best course of action is to sell every rally.
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DXY- Correction underway?A great volatility day for USD Index yesterday and, after opening with a gap up, the index fell in the afternoon and from a technical point of view, just filled the gap.
Now it seems like we have a strong base on 90 and slightly under and I expect a correction to follow.
Pairs that I have in focus for selling are EurUsd, NzdUsd and AudUsd
DXY- Important breakAs I said before, I'm very bearish USD, and till now things worked that way.
Now, after breaking down the flag formation, we have another important break for USD index: the horizontal support and previous low.
In my opinion rallies on USD should be sold and we can soon have new local highs for EurUsd, AudUsd, GbpUsd and NzdUsd
DXY- USD shows no life at allLast week I said that I expect a new low from USD Index and my opinion doesn't change.
After a short-lived rebound from 90.60 support, DXY opened last night with a gap and dropped again, not being able at least to close the hole gap.
This tells me that a break under the support area could be just around the corner and DXY can have a new leg down even under 90 psychological support.
Under these conditions, EurUsd is my first choice to buy.
DXY- Could it go under 90.50?Two weeks ago I said that I expect 92 support to fall , and now we have this break, and Dollar index is trading at 90.65 at the time of writing. More important is that DXY is now just above another support situated at 90.50.
If we look closely at the chart we can see that after finding support at 90.50, USD Index made a short term double bottom that I've spoken about and although we have a correction at that point this was very short-lived and the index reversed and broke under the flag pattern support.
I expect USD to remain weak and, indeed, we can have a break under 90.50 support. The next support is around 89 zone and, in this situation, EurUsd can be the best bet for rising and challenge 1.25
DXY Bearish until ChristmasPattern: Channel Down on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price is approaching the 4H MA50, which has been rejecting every upside attempt since November 04. Also the RSI is at the top of its Channel Down and the MACD is repeating the November 10 - 13 sequence.
Target: 90.100 (-1.30% as per the November fractal).
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DXY- Double bottom on H1, correction underway?As I correctly anticipated, DXY broke under 92 important support and that lead to a 1.5% loss for the index, a strong break above 1.2 for EurUsd and GbpUsd reaching 1.35.
Now the index found support in 90.50 area and has formed a small double bottom visible on H1 chart. The neckline of the pattern is broken and we can expect a correction to 91.50 zone resistance.
I will look to sell rallies for EurUsd, GbpUsd, AudUsd and NzdUsd in this context.
Dollar Devaluation - DO NOT Be FooledThis is an update to my last Dollar chart a few months ago. Once again, I've been bearish on the dollar for some time now, we see it has broken below support and is starting to fall. We got the break and close below the 93 support level which could lead to a free fall for the dollar. Now, we don't know the exact time frame for this all to happen, and when you zoom into the smaller time frame chart, there are support levels represented by the second line at the 95.50 level that could cause the price to bounce temporarily. Overall, the strength we've seen in Stocks, Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin shows the weakness of the Dollar, and I believe this will continue going into 2021. It's possible we see a bounce, but unless we see a large push back above the 100 level we should expect further weakness from the Dollar.