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DXY H1 / BULLISH MARKET STRUCTURE SIGNAL => 📈✅ Hello Traders! This is my idea related to the future movement of DXY H1. As we can see, the market is reacting from the resistance level, and at this moment, I'm looking for a bullish confirmation to execute a long entry. The perfect scenario would be to see a retracement until the OB that I mentioned and after that, to go bullish. In case of confirmation, I will execute this trade. Traders, if my proposal resonates with you or if you hold a divergent viewpoint regarding this trade, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. I welcome the opportunity to hear your perspectives. ____________________________________ Follow, like, and comment to see my content: www.tradingview.com
TVC:DXYLong
by GoodTradeST
1
A deeper drop emerges below 103.00TVC:DXY retreats for the third consecutive session and approaches the area of three-month lows near 103.00 at the beginning of the week. In case sellers push harder, the breakdown of the November low of 103.17 should leave the door open to extra losses in the near term. That said, the loss of the weekly low of 102.93 (August 30) could put a potential visit to the psychological 100.00 mark back on the radar. In the meantime, while below the key 200-day SMA at 103.61, the outlook for the index is expected to remain bearish.
TVC:DXY
by tradingconmike
Another drop to 104.00 remains in storeTVC:DXY manages to pick up extra pace and extends further the bounce off multi-week lows around 104.00 on Thursday. In case bears regain the upper hand, the breakdown of the November low of 103.98 (November 14-15) should pave the way for a quick test of the critical 200-day SMA at 103.61 prior to the weekly low of 102.96 (August 30). In the meantime, while above the key 200-day SMA, the outlook for the index is expected to remain constructive.
TVC:DXYShort
by tradingconmike
DXY → Next hurdle emerges around 106.00TVC:DXY looks to extend further last week’s rebound, although the 106.00 region proves to be quite a strong barrier for the time being. Once the 106.00 hurdle is cleared, the index could then embark on a potential test of the November peak at 107.11 (November 1) ahead of the 2023 high of 107.34 (October 3). In the meantime, while above the key 200-day SMA, today at 103.60, the outlook for the index is expected to remain constructive.
TVC:DXYLong
by tradingconmike
DXY Daily TA Neutral BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% DXY, 60% Cash. * The US October Employment Situation today reported 261k nonfarm payroll jobs added (vs 250k expected), a 0.2% increase in unemployment and a 62.2% labor force participation rate. These numbers hardly reflect monetary tightening (labor force participation rate has remained largely unchanged since Covid-19 lockdowns) nor a recessionary environment. If CPI comes in lower on the 10th it will likely help soften the Fed's stance on inflation but as it stands now, the Federal Reserve is likely to increase the funds rate by another 75bps in December. If CPI comes in higher on the 10th, 100bps would likely be on the table come December 14th. The Russia/Ukraine grain deal that Putin resumed this past Wednesday will expire on 11/19/22 and there have been no commitments to extension thus far. Chinese stocks are in rally mode as rumors regarding a reopening from Covid restrictions are beginning to circulate. Key Upcoming Dates: Third GDPNow US Q4 GDP Estimate 11/09; US October CPI at 830am EST 11/10; UofM November Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 .* Price is currently trending down at $110.78 and is still technically testing the 50MA at $111.15 as support. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at ~$109.61, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 45.84 with no signs of trough formation and is on the brink of losing both 49.10 support and the uptrend line from July 2020 as support; the next support is at 39.43. Stochastic is currently on the verge of crossing over bearish as it tests 68.24 resistance. MACD remains bearish after a failed bullish crossover and is currently trending down at 0.035 as it approaches a potential retest of -0.065 support. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 13.70 as Price continues to try to push higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce off of the 50MA as support then it will likely retest the local-high of ~114 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $110 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $111.20.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% DXY, 70% Cash. *DXY, 10 Year US Treasury Bonds and VIX are taking a hit as JPYUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD, 30 Year US Treasury Bonds, Cryptos, Equities, Equity Futures and Commodities are all up. This is after speculation that Japan's government had intervened in currency markets by selling USD for JPY in order to protect a key JPYUSD threshold . Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Daly (currently not FOMC member) commented that the Fed should reevaluate how restrictive they need to be and that 75bp increments after November may be unnecessary . This combination is likely responsible for today's shift in market sentiment toward more Risk-On. St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC member) quickly clapped back today and said that the Fed can keep raising rates until they see inflation come down meaningfully because the job market is "extremely strong" . Comments like Bullard's leave the possibility of 100bps on November 2nd still on the table. The 7th and penultimate Beige Book of 2022 released on 10/19 highlighted : a tightening job market with wage growth still intact, a slowing housing market, a continued weakening demand for production and an increase in travel/tourism from the post-Covid reopening. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; 20th and Final GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.* Price is currently trending down at ~$112 after being rejected by the upper trendline of the ascending channel from October 2008 at ~$114 as resistance, this is just below $114.63 major resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at the 50 MA (~$110.50) which is just above $110 minor support, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 51.50 as it approaches a retest of 49 minor support, this would likely coincide with the uptrend line from July 2020 at ~48 as support. Stochastic is currently on the verge of crossing over bearish at 46 after forming a peak at 51 resistance, the next support is at 24. MACD remains bearish and is currently reversing a trough formation as it breaks below 0.65 support and continues to trend down at 0.57; the next support is at 0.24. ADX is currently trending sideways at 19 as Price continues to see rejection at the local high, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely aim to retest the upper trendline of the ascending channel from October 2008 at ~$114 as resistance (and potentially $114.63 resistance ). However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$110.50 as support before potentially retesting $110 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $113.32.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA Neutral BullishDXY Daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 58% DXY, 42% Cash. *DXY, VIX, Nat Gas, EURUSD and Agriculture are up while US Treasuries, Equities, Futures, Cryptos, Metals, Oil, GBPUSD, CNYUSD and JPYUSD are down. Cleveland Fed President Mester mentioned today in New York that there has been little to no progress on ringing in inflation and that she supports a higher than 4.75% federal funds rate in 2023 if the data warrants it. Earlier today Putin met with UAE President MBZ and both praised the oil production cut by OPEC+ . Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently attempting to keep trending up at ~$113.20 after bouncing from $110 minor support last week, the next resistance is the upper trendline of the ascending channel from October 2008 at ~$114.25 which is just below $114.62 resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $113.87, this margin is bullish. RSI is currently forming a soft peak at 62 and is still technically testing 59 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently forming a soft peak at ~45.5, the next resistance is at 50.60. MACD is currently on the verge of crossing over bullish at 0.93, the next resistance is at 1.24 and support at 0.65. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 28 as Price continues pushing up, this is mildly bearish at the moment; if it is able to form a trough as Price pushes higher, this would be bullish. If Price is able to keep pushing higher then it will likely retest the upper trendline of the ascending channel from October 2008 at ~$114.25 as resistance before potentially retesting $114.62 resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $110 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $112.38.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BearishDXY daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% DXY, 70% Cash. *DXY, US 10 Year Treasury Bonds and VIX are down while Equities, Cryptos, Commodities, Futures, GBPUSD, EURUSD and 30 Year Treasury Bonds are all up. With expectations of a federal funds rate above 4% in 2023 it's starting to get to that time where investors ask themselves when the continued rates hikes and impending Fed-forced recession will be priced in. Macroeconomic factors aside, geopolitical uncertainties mainly involving Russia and China pose adverse risks in the near-term to medium-term. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Member Loretta Mester speaks twice on 10/06; September US Employment Situation at 830am EST 10/07; FOMC Members Kashkari, Waller and Williams speak on 10/07; FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently trending down at ~$110.40 as it approaches a test of $110 minor support. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $114.70, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing 49.10 minor support and is on the verge of testing the uptrend line from July 2020 at 47.47 as support if it continues down. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough as it tests 9.02 support; if it doesn't bounce here it will likely tests max bottom. MACD crossed over bearish today and is currently trending down at 0.90, the next support is at 0.65. ADX is currently trending down at 32 as Price is seeing selling pressure, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce at $110.02 minor support then it will likely aim to retest the upper trendline of the ascending channel from October 2008 at $114.70 resistance . However, if Price breaks down below $110.02 minor support , it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$108.80 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $111.55.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BullishDXY daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 90% DXY, 10% Cash. *Equity Futures, Agriculture, Metals and EURUSD are down to start the week while DXY, US Treasuries, Energy and Crypto are up. As long as the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate keeps going up and Russia keeps escalating the war in Ukraine, DXY will likely keep going up. Key Upcoming Dates: September US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 09/27; August US New-Home Sales at 10am EST 09/27; Final US Q2 GDP revision at 830am EST 09/29; August US PCE price index at 830am EST 09/30.* Price is currently trending up at ~$113.78 after briefly testing $114.62 resistance earlier in today's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $108.84, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 77.21 and is beginning to form a soft peak as it approaches 81.84 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 96 and is beginning to form a soft peak as it still technically tests 88.40 resistance. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 1.16 as it approaches 1.24 resistance with no signs of peak formation. ADX is currently trending up at 35 as Price continues going higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to break above $114.62 resistance then the next likely target is a retest of $119.88 resistance for the first time since January 2002. However, if Price is rejected here at $114.62 resistance, it will likely retest $110 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $107.91.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA Neutral BullishDXY Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% DXY, 40% Cash. *After briefly touching $110 minor resistance in Friday's session, the DXY will attempt to retest the next resistance between $112 (Weekly resistance) and $114 (Daily resistance). The last time the DXY tested $112 Weekly resistance was in 2000. If the Fed raises FFR by 75bps on 09/21 this will push it to 3% and may serve as a catalyst for DXY to keep surging higher. A few Fed members have openly suggested taking FFR to 4% or above by early 2023, should this happen the stage is all but set for DXY to keep going higher. Key Upcoming Dates: 10th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 09/07 ; 6th Beige Book at 2pm EST 09/07; August CPI at 830am EST 09/13; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently retesting $110 minor resistance for the first time in 20 years. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $108, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 68 after peaking at 69, the next resistance is at 82 and the next support is at 59. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 91, it's still technically testing 88 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at .82 but is still technically testing .65 resistance, if it can break above .65 the next resistance is at 1.24. ADX is trending up slightly at 28 as Price continue to push higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to break above $110 minor resistance then it will likely retest between $112 Weekly resistance and $114 Daily resistance for the first time since 2000. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $108 support before potentially retesting the 50 MA at ~$107 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $108.81.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
Could today’s NFP confirm the USD breakout? Hello all, welcome to today’s update. Today’s video focuses on the USD index after buyers made another strong move in yesterday’s NY session. In today’s video, we run over the price current price action and trend structure after buyers made a breakout yesterday, clearing 109 resistance that held buyers back during this week. The USD continues its fantastic run in 2022 as Fed policy maintains buyer demand. Price jumped to new 2022 highs yesterday and continues to track nicely on its current fast trend. Attention moves to today’s US employment data, as this could maintain the run or lead to a pullback as traders will be waiting to see if we see another hot payroll figure. The last several releases have beaten expectations and come in hotter, so if we do see this pattern continue, will this be the confirmation for yesterday’s resistance break? We think a lower figure will most likely have a negative effect on the USD index and could cause a failed break. Attention could also be on major risk currencies like the EUR, AUD and GBP as they sold off yesterday, and if we see another push higher on the USD today, this could continue their pain. Tonight’s US employment data will be released at 10:30 pm AEST / 8:30 am ET. Thanks for stopping by to check out our latest analysis. Enjoy the rest of your day and your weekend.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by Eightcap
DXY Daily TA BearishDXY Daily bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% DXY, 95% Cash . *Treasuries (excluding the 30 yr Bond) and the Dollar are correcting after a bullish summer fueled by supply chain woes and recession fears. Supply chain woes have not been remediated but there is an element of the Bullwhip Effect that should be considered and that is the excess supply that can come shortly after an abrupt slow down in demand, this could lead to deflation which would naturally (yet artificially) reduce inflation. The recessionary fears on the other hand are starting to wane with every remotely bullish economic data point that is reported, speculators are even already betting on a 50bps rate hike in September. Just today Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that he would like to see EOY FFR at 3.9% and 4.4% by the end of 2023, he doesn't actually have a final vote on this but it's worthy of mention considering he has been rather dovish in recent years. Both money markets and Fed members have acknowledged that the EOY target for FFR in 2022 is 3.25%-3.75% (technically 3.15%-4%), so if the current range is 2.25%-2.5% (current effective rate is 2.3%) it would require 100bps or more over the next three Fed meetings in September, November and December to get to 3.25%-3.75% EOY FFR. As of now the most likely scenarios are: September 50-75bps, November 50-75bps and December 25-50bps. More clarity will arrive at the end of this month with PCE numbers due on 08/26 and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27. In other news, Disney reported beats on Q3 earnings and revenue but forecasted slower subscriber growth in 2024. Key dates remaining this week: PPI report at 830am EST 08/11 .* Price was rejected by the descending trendline from 07/14/22 and is currently trending down at ~$105.20; it is still technically testing the 50 MA as support at ~$105.58. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $106.87, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 43 after bouncing at 39 and is still technically testing the uptrend line from July 2020 as support at ~45. Stochastic remains bearish for a third session and is currently testing 24 support with no signs of trough formation. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing 0 support with no signs of trough formation, if it breaks through this support then the next support is at -0.38. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 21 as Price continues, this is mildly bearish; if ADX can start trending up as Price continues to fall this would be bullish. If Price is able to defend support at the 50 MA (~$105.58) then it will have to break above the descending trendline from 07/14/22 at ~$105.75 in order to retest $108 resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $103 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $105.70.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY Monthly TA Cautiously BullishDXY Monthly cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% DXY, 30% Cash. *SPECULATION POST. This is my most ambitious TA yet, it is entirely speculative and inspired by recent geopolitical and macroeconomic events. On the left Y-Axis is the FFR to show the visual relationship between DXY and FFR. This chart essentially posits that we are on the brink of something really breaking and is meant to guide investors as to what kind of volatility/turmoil potentially lies ahead. The six blue bars are the past six recessions after 1979 as declared by the National Economic Research Bureau (NERB). Ways that we can get to $120 DXY (these events can be singular or mixed and matched): a) Nancy Pelosi defies Chinese requests and flies to Taiwan, b) USA or NATO member directly intervenes in Russia/Ukraine war (providing fighter jets, sending infantry units, etc.), c) China attacks Taiwan, d) China exacerbates Covid-19 lockdowns, e) countries begin imposing Monkey Pox lockdowns, f) US (and world) enters deep recession, g) Federal Reserve continues raising rates beyond 3.5%, h) I'm probably missing some potential events so please post a comment if you can think of any others.* Price is currently trending up at $107.20 as it attempts to break above $106.52 resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at ~$99, this is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 75 after bouncing at 67, the next resistance is at 80.55 while the next support is at 63. Stochastic remains bearish but is currently forming a trough in the 'bullish autobahn zone' as it attempts to cross over bullish at 94, if it can do this then the next resistance is max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 2.40 with no signs of peak formation as it still technically tests 1.66 resistance; the next resistance is at 4.63. ADX is currently trending up at 26.46 as Price continues seeing buying pressure, this is bullish. If Price is able to break above $106.52 resistance and turn it to support, the next resistance is at $120 . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$97 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from March 2008 as support at ~$95 . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $106.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BearishDXY Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% DXY, 75% Cash. * US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was interviewed by NBC and explained that due to strong consumer demand, credit quality and employment, the widely anticipated two consecutive quarters of negative GDP would not constitute a recession. She is essentially the White House mouthpiece for the state of the economy and is saying that a healthy labor market and a strong consumer (she's referring to growing retail sales, positive GDI growth and "healthy" consumer credit) are currently saving the US from an economic recession. The Consumer Confidence Index (the leading gauge of US consumer confidence) is scheduled to report tomorrow (07/26) at 10am (EST), it has fallen for the past two months and is now at the lowest level since February 2021. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is currently projecting a rise in confidence from June to July and is scheduled to report at 10am (EST) on 07/29. With increases in layoffs and announced slowdowns in hiring I'm legit curious to know how the Employment Situation looks on 08/05; both the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury Department are notorious for relying upon lagging data, time will tell if this is one of those cases. With regards to the DXY there are two bullish catalysts at work here: 1) continued geopolitical turmoil and the resulting supply chain disruptions (leading to food and energy shortages) are pushing investors to US treasuries and 2) increases to FFR spillover into increases to overall economic rates, which typically push those looking for higher rates of return to dollar-denominated assets which in return pushes DXY higher. The current consensus on the EOY FFR from both money markets and FOMC members is around 3.25-3.5%, we are currently at 1.5%-1.75% (effective is currently 1.58%). That said, if the projected increases in FFR are to in fact take place AND the global geopolitical/supply chain situation continues to worsen, it would be reasonable to see DXY at 2000-2002 levels (~$120). Reminder that there was a "technical" US recession from March 2001 to November 2001.* Price is continuing to trend down at ~$106.50 after being rejected by $108 resistance; it is also forming a Bull Flag and may attempt to retest $108 resistance in the near term. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $108.57, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 52 and is beginning to form a soft trough after getting rejected by 59 resistance; the next support is the uptrend line from July 2020 at ~45. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently forming a trough as it attempts to cross over bullish at max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing 0.65 support with no sign of trough formation. ADX is currently trending down at 34 with no sign of trough formation as Price continues seeing selling pressure, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here at ~$106.50 then it will likely retest $108 resistance . However, if Price continues to break down, it will likely retest the 50 MA (for the first time since May) at ~$105 . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $108.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY INDEX TUTORIAL 📉📉📉🎯 DXY - USD Index USDINDEX - The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX, or, informally, the "Dixie") is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies, this index helps us to understand if USD is bullish or bearish on a short term or long term perspective. 🎯 DXY has two correlations one of them is positive meaning the certain assets moves like DXY and negative corelation meaning certain assets move exactly vice-versa. ✅ DXY Positive Correlations DXY ⬆️ USDCAD ⬆️ USDJPY ⬆️ USDCHF ⬆️ USDRUB⬆️ USD XXX ⬆️ ✅ DXY Negative Corelations DXY ⬆️ EURUSD ⬇️ GBPUSD ⬇️ AUDUSD ⬇️ NZDUSD ⬇️ From a technical standpoint to have a better probability in your trades try to find entries when both DXY and for example USDCAD are in long poi (point of interest) this will increase your chance of having profits as you use inter-market correlations
TVC:DXYEducation
by AnonimFXRO