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DXY and 14 Levels: Understanding the Currency Pair's TargetsWhile Himino's speech is a crucial assumption for monetary policy and the longstanding dilemma regarding wages and prices, his journey is a speculative adventure on how the concept of Wages/Prices can depart from what he calls a frozen state. Next are deeper insights into how Himino perceives and examines wages and prices in relation to Japanese households, businesses, and financial institutions. Himino then guides us through four stages of development, covering price fluctuations, labor costs, buying and selling prices, and wages. Remarkably, as BOJ has demonstrated since 2016, Himino dismisses the Wages/Prices concept in stage 1, where uncontrollable prices arise from the West through imported inflation and market changes in oil prices. How to control imported inflation and oil prices without imposing an advanced concept like Autarky on Japan's prices. As Himino points out in some cases, the complexity of Wages, Prices, and satisfaction to prevent deflation may never materialize. Throughout the speech, Himino states that if the concept of wages/prices is satisfied, questions about monetary easing must be reconsidered. Whether intentionally or not, Himino throws USD/JPY and cross-currency pairs into the mix. A worrisome aspect of Himino's speech is how a speculative speech turns into psychological reports on negative interest rates, ultimately BOJ's most important December policy, the end of monetary easing. Currency analysts and outspoken figures on leading websites in our era reveal that they can no longer fix it. Stage 1: Businesses reflect higher import prices in selling prices. Stage 2: Businesses reflect a higher overall price in wages. Stage 3: Businesses reflect higher labor costs in selling prices. Stage 4: Business price policies become more diverse, enabling them to explore strategies for selling more attractive products and services with corresponding prices rather than just good products and services at low prices.
TVC:DXY
by Gwen_Humuna
Himino's Speech: A Deep Dive into Currency Pairs and Targets In a significant monetary policy speech, Himino introduced pivotal assumptions for wages, prices, and the prolonged dual downturn. The narrative explored how the concept of Wages/Prices might depart from what he termed a frozen state. Himino delved deeper into understanding and reviewing wages and prices concerning Japanese households, businesses, and financial institutions. He guided us through four developmental stages involving price fluctuations, labor costs, buying and selling prices, and wages. Notably, in stage 1, Himino acknowledged the complexity of controlling imported inflation and oil prices without imposing a progressive concept like Autarky on Japan's prices. Throughout the speech, Himino asserted that if the Wages/Prices concept is met, questions about monetary easing must be reexamined. Interestingly, Himino tactfully connected his speech to the USD/JPY movement and cross-currency pairs. A notable aspect of Himino's speech is how speculative remarks turned into psychological reports on the last meeting of BOJ in December, highlighting the importance of the new monetary policy and the cessation of easing. Financial analysts and opinion leaders expressed their inability to repair the situation. Himino outlined four stages: businesses reflecting higher import prices, businesses reflecting higher overall prices on wages, businesses reflecting higher labor costs in prices, and diversified price policies allowing businesses to explore strategies attractive in value instead of just focusing on low-priced goods and services. In summary, Himino's speech touched on crucial economic concepts and their implications, sparking discussions on the future of Japan's monetary policy and its impact on currency pairs.
TVC:DXY
by Larissa-Trader
1
DXY: The US dollar faces the risk of being sold off?Investors sold the dollar late last week at the fastest pace in a year, hoping for lower interest rates next year after the Federal Reserve ends its policy rate cut. significantly raise interest rates. State Street, one of the world's largest asset managers, said the asset manager was prepared to sell 1.6% of its dollar positions this month, the largest monthly outflow since last November. The company said. In particular, investors have enjoyed "significant" selling every day since the release of the US employment report on November 3rd. "The developments over the past two weeks suggest that demand for the dollar is undergoing a rapid reassessment," said Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street. He added that the recent sell-off in the dollar signals an end to the "extraordinary dollar glut." ``Investors are thinking, ``If interest rates are really cut, there is no need to hold so many dollars,'' the expert said. Experts predict that the sell-off by asset managers may be just the beginning of a long-term trend among investors to reduce their exposure to US assets, with the US dollar weakening in November. This was the worst monthly performance of the year. According to the Financial Times, a weaker U.S. dollar is beneficial for emerging countries because it helps them repay dollar-denominated loans and potentially draws investors back to developing countries. This comes after a huge sale of foreign currency-denominated bonds this year.
TVC:DXYShort
by Chart_MasterPro
USD Weakens; Currencies ResilientThe Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the greenback against a basket of key currencies, extended its decline to 103.40 (from 103.75) during the holiday trading session. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperformed, causing USD/CAD to drop by 0.7% to 1.3615, hitting a one-month low. Canada's year-on-year retail sales for September surged to 2.7%, beating expectations of 2.0%. The British Pound (GBP/USD) rebounded to 1.2605 (from 1.2540), while the Euro (EUR/USD) rose to 1.0942 (from 1.0905). Germany's IFO Business Climate increased to 87.3 in November, beating forecasts but slightly lower than the previous reading of 86.9. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) extended gains to 0.6585 from 0.6560, nearing its three-month high. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) climbed to 0.6085 (from 0.6045) on strong sentiment from Australia and risk appetite. Against the Japanese Yen, the U.S. Dollar (USD/JPY) dipped to 149.45 from 149.65 in subdued trading. The greenback closed lower against Asian and emerging market currencies. USD/CNH (Dollar-Offshore Chinese Yuan) dropped to 7.1475 from 7.1515, and USD/THB (Dollar-Thai Baht) ended nearly unchanged at 35.40 (from 35.43). USD/SGD fell to 1.3405 from 1.3420. Global bond yields rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 4.47% (from 4.40%). The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 4.95% (from 4.90%). Germany's 10-year Bund yield rose by 3 basis points to 2.64%, and Japan's 10-year JGB yield spiked to 0.76% (from 0.71%). The U.S. stock markets closed stable on Thanksgiving, with the Dow rising 0.27% to 35,383 (from 35,287), and the S&P decreasing to 4,557 (from 4,560). Global equity markets showed mixed performance. The VIX, measuring U.S. stock market volatility, dropped to its lowest close since January 2020, reaching 12.46, a 2.7% decrease. Increasing expectations suggest that central bank tightening measures have concluded, contributing to calmer stock markets.
TVC:DXY
by damasbryant
DXY (Dollar index) Longs to 104.000My bias for the dollar is bullish, as I am expecting a major pull back from this key level of demand that we have marked out on the daily time frame. As you can tell by the price action, bearish pressure is now getting exhausted so, we will be looking out for a wyckoff accumulation on the lower time frame to give us more confluence that this move will take place. As I don't personally trade the dollar, I will be using as it a sign to sell my other pairs. As we know already if the dollar becomes bullish we will expect bearish pressure for pairs like GU, EU and gold, visa versa. In addition to this, the daily demand holds a lot of significance as it has broken structure to the upside and swept liquidity therefore, we can expect a nice reaction from this AOI to potentially mitigate the supply above or fill the imbalances that have been left. My confluences for DXY$ Longs are as follows: - Overall DXY market is still long term bullish even though we temporarily bearish. - Price mitigated a strong level of demand on the (daily Time frame) that caused a BOS to the upside. - Price tapped in very slowly and the candle sticks have less volume, indicating that the bearish pressure is now exhausted and price is now looking like it wants to reverse. - Wyckoff accumulation has started to form very gradually on the lower timeframe. - Theres lots of imbalances above to target as well as supply zones to mitigate in order for price to continue in its bearish trend. - Price has also taken out a key level of engineering liquidity on the way down approaching the zone, so now price has enough liquidity to move the market back up. P.S. I am still bearish but as price has tapped in a key level, my thoughts are to buy back up to the nearest supply in order for us to follow the dollar trend downwards. I will be waiting on what market does on Monday as I will be looking for imminent Sells for EU, GU and XAUUSD.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Hassan_fx
1
DXY Preparing for Another Leg Down! Grab This Next Short Entry!DXY confirmed its breakout from the bull channel to the downside and is currently showing some minor support at the 200EMA. I would expect the price gap from here to the 9EMA at 105.000 to close followed by another leg down. We have to be careful to not get caught in a 2 legged trap, which is also a possible outcome at this level. How do we trade this? Wait for a sell signal at the 9EMA with a strong bear bar closing on or near its low before entering a short. Key Points 1. 200EMA Showing Some Support 2. Two Pushes down, Third Probable 3. Gap to fill to the 9EMA around 105.000. 4. Look for another Short entry at 105.000 with a sell signal You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk! Let us know what you think in the comment section below!
TVC:DXYShort
by TraderEngineering
Fed stance and BOE rate cut expectations impact bond yields and After the latest monetary policy meeting, financial markets reacted to statements from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the Bank of England (BoE). These reactions led to large changes in bond yields and the value of the dollar. After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, markets tilted toward a cautious interpretation of Powell's remarks, even though the Fed maintained its hawkish stance. Despite recognition of the US's strong economic performance, concerns about tightening financial conditions and questions about the reliability of scatterplots have led to suggestions that US interest rates may have peaked. There is. This sentiment has led to lower bond yields and a decline in the value of the dollar. In contrast, three out of nine Monetary Policy Committee members at the BoE meeting supported a 25 basis point rate hike. However, rising UK unemployment and a forecast of zero growth in 2024 pose major challenges, with GBP/USD moving above previous support/resistance levels as the dollar weakens and US yields fall. Rose.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by AstronautPioneer
DXY Daily Analysis - Fall to 200EMA 105.000 Level Then Bounce?DXY has been rejected at the bull channel support, falling to 105.000 before closing last week. There is now a gap to the 200EMA, which given the rejection bar, seems like a probable target if you're already short. I would caution going full-on short just yet until we close below the 200EMA. If we get a bounce at the 200EMA, I would consider a long back up to the 30EMA at 106.000. Key Points: 1. Fell out of Bull Channel 2. Rejection off of the Bull Channel at the 107.000 area 3. There is a gap down to the 200EMA 4. RSI Room to Move Up As always, trade at your own risk, you are responsible for your trades. I hope this analysis was insightful and useful. Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
TVC:DXY
by TraderEngineering
DXY: USD exchange rate today (November 1); The USD reversed and The US economy is resilient, as evidenced by new data released on October 31. This is the most recent indication that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) can sustain high interest rates for an extended length of time. As a result, given the substantial rise in wages during the third quarter, US labor costs rose dramatically. After increasing by 1.0% between April and June, the employment expenditure index (ECI) increased by 1.1% in the most recent quarter. According to additional data, US housing prices increased in August for the third straight month, up 5.6% over the same time last year and 4.6% from July. The Fed started a two-day policy meeting on October 31 and was predicted to maintain interest rates at that time.
TVC:DXYLong
by TrategySherpa
DXY Daily Chart Analysis - Will DXY Return to the Bull Channel?DXY finally broke out of the bull channel it has been in since July of this year. A strong bull response off of the 30EMA brought the price back to the bull channel. We are now waiting to see if the price can re-enter the channel, or if it fails and confirms a breakout to the downside. Key Points: 1. Bear breakout of the Bull Channel, waiting for confirmation 2. Strong bull response on 30EMA below the channel 3. Price is currently testing the channel 4. RSI is near 50 and is not supportive of either direction 5. Before trading DXY, wait to see if the price confirms or denies a breakout Since we are in a bull trend, the probability of a confirmed breakout to the downside is less than the trend continuing to the upside. I think it is best to wait for a Daily close within the bull channel before entering a long or a bear candle closing near its low below the 30EMA before shorting. The bias ought to remain bull until we have confirmation of a break to the downside. As always, trade at your own risk, you are responsible for your trades. I hope this analysis was insightful and useful. Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
TVC:DXYLong
by TraderEngineering
DXY - DXY trading trend todayIn a year when the US economy beat all recession forecasts, budget ferocity has nearly doubled, and weak budget guidance has been found to be almost more lethal than interstate budget wars. faction in Washington. The government decimated $2.02 billion in the fiscal year through September, after adjusting to remove the impact of President Joe Biden's student debt forgiveness program, which was struck down by the Supreme Court. This level is 1.02 USD rate higher than the previous year. The extent of this increase could lead to financial statements that economists, politicians and agencies have previously warned against credit warnings. That also explains why long-term bond yields are hitting their highest level since 2007, with the government needing to issue more bonds to offset the blip. Yields on 10-year notes exceeded 5% on Monday. Republican lawmakers have faulted President Biden for out-of-control spending, even though they are so firm on how to handle the budget that they have not yet agreed to elect a new speaker of the House of Representatives. . Meanwhile, spending needs continue to grow, with the White House calling for $106 billion in emergency funding for Israel, Ukraine and the US-Mexico border. Yet for all the politics of spending, the main source of growing evil in 2023 is actually revenue. Much of the rest is due to the spoils of battle, another force that also causes fierce debate among the zodiac signs. According to JPMorgan, the fire as a percentage of GDP increase represents the weakest three years since 1950. But fiscal 2023 sees strong economic growth, with more than 3 million people adding jobs jobs at My.
TVC:DXYLong
by NicoTradingMaster
DXY short term Shorts to 105.200SCENARIO 1 - This is my bias for the dollar index (DXY) which gives us extra confluence for my two GBPUSD & EURUSD temporary longs that I have recently posted. As they have a negative correlation between them it gives our trade ideas more confirmation. Im currently expecting price to react as it's in a 8hr supply zone and distribute to eventually sell off towards 105.200 or even lower possibly to 104.700. Once price reaches there we will then expect the dollar to push back up again from those POI's below ( 6hr or 4hr demand zone.) My confluences for dollar (DXY) shorts are as follows: - Price changed character to the downside on the higher time frame as well as broke structure indicating the shift in trend has become bearish. - Price entered an 8hr supply zone that has caused this break of structure to the downside. - Momentum has slowed down (a good sign that price wants to go back down.) -Wyckoff distribution taking place to liquidate any previous buyers that was in profit to then allow us to enter the best possible sell position down towards the designated target. - A few Imbalances have been left below that it must come back and fill. - Lots of liquidity below as well to target in the form of untouched Asia lows and engineering liquidity. P.S. Obviously as this is not the only possible scenario, price could also go higher and react off the 6hr supply zone above current price and mitigate that extreme zone to then sell off from there. Either way we are anticipating a drop to follow the bearish trend that has been formed.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1