DXY Daily TA BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% DXY, 95% Cash.
*Cryptos and Commodities markets are signaling a bullish open to a week of mute economic data before CPI on 12/13 and the last FFR hike announcement of 2022 on 12/14. More volatility is to be expected with increased supply chain disruptions due to reduced exports from China weighing on Big Tech ( Apple in particular ). While certain major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai are loosening Covid restrictions in effort to quell protests and reinvigorate dampening domestic demand. A price cap imposed by the G7 + Australia on Russian oil took effect today, the $60/barrel price cap applies to any third-party countries who intend to use G7 or EU tankers, insurance companies or credit institutions to ship Russian oil . Russia responded by saying they would cut production while OPEC+ reiterated their commitment to a 2m output reduction until 2023 . This will likely push the price of oil higher. Ukraine has also mentioned that Russia hasn't launched any large missile offensives in the past two weeks and that they are likely gearing up for another significant strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in attempt to break Ukrainian citizens down during the winter.
Commodities, Cryptos, US Treasurys, HSI, CNYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are up. DXY, US Equity Futures, N100, NI225 and JPYUSD are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: US November PPI 830am EST 12/09; US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. *
Price has broken below the 200MA at $105.57 as support and is currently trending down at $104.22 as it approaches $103.15 support which coincides with the uptrend line from May 2021. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $106.83, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 32, the next support is at 23.34. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down slightly at -1.45 as it breaks below -1.21, the next support is at -1.66. ADX is currently trending up at 30 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$105.60 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely test $103.15 support which would coincide with the uptrend line from May 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $105.60.
