Dxyviews
DXY -- LONG ( Long-Term 6 to 36 Months ) DXY -- LONG ( Long-Term 6 to 36 Months ) . The chart explains it as per the Big boys analysis. The general consensus is that US Dollar will continue to out-perform other currencies , so my perspective is that in general the BIG BOYS are LONG USD unless that changes and conditions flip then we go short .
NOTE: we are traders not investors , we care less about anything more than 6 months
DXY -- BEARISH PRICE DIVERGENCE with consolidationWARNING: BEARISH PRICE DIVERGENCE
Higher Highs and higher Lows while price is consolidating
and RSI & CCI are making Lower Highs and Lower lows
Indicates reversal of DXY might be in the works, watchout . The DXY might collapse if it continues to consolidate so be on the lookout.
We still expect US Dollar Strength but it seems we are starting to run out of steam again on this particular rally.
Can we hold on and continue to rally ?
DXY -- 95.74 --Area of Resistance --Case for SHORTThe area around 95.74 has been an area of resistance for a while . This DXY seems strong enough with great economic news for US Economy, it should break it this time ? if it fails again then we go SHORT
STRICT WARNING: If and only if DXY fails to break 95.74 then we go short from here otherwise we remain LONG
DXY LONG --- Moment of truth ideaEverytime since US Dollar Index ( DXY) began its major uptrend on 15th February 2018, DXY has made :
Higher Lows followed by corresponding Higher Highs i.e
After every Higher Low its has rallied to take out the previous Higher High.
So what can we expect this time : All the fundamental factors still point US Dollar strength for a couple of more weeks ( 3 to 6 weeks ) and that implies weaker USD based currencies like EURUSD or GBPUSD , etc
NOTE: it means if this pattern is bound to repeat itself and the rally has not died then we should expect the DXY to rally and take out 97.00 Level before dropping again to a higher low . if the Trend is dead then expect DXY to drop and break the previous Higher LOW .
Assumptions for next 3 to 6 weeks, if the above pattern holds:
Stronger DXY = Long DXY = Short EURUSD , Short GBPUSD
LONGS ( BUY) :
--- DXY
--- USDJPY
--- USDCAD
--- USDCHF
SHORTS ( SELL):
--- EURUSD
--- GBPUSD
--- AUDUSD
How to make a Dollar ToastThe Dollar under the Monthly 50SMA is toast, doomed. Why? Take a look at the previous 2 major declines of the Dollar. The last one is on the chart and highlighted with a yellow ellipse. Recently price is worming around it (red ellipse). Once it is below the Monthly 50SMA again there is nothing to stop it from falling like a rock. Currently, the price is under it but watch for the monthly close. This is a long-term analysis. You still have time to position yourself accordingly.
Comments are welcome.
DXY Strength - But A Trendline In The Way?The last two weeks we have seen some bullish moves with the Dollar which broke the DXY out of a low range. However on a weekly chart, we can see it has now reached a descending trendline around the 93.00 level. Could this be a bit of a make or break move for the Dollar? With a break to the upside and push towards previous 2017 highs or a rejection and downside move to test 87.00 area.
Up Down Up DownThe Dollar Index has been stuck in this wedge pattern since the beginning of 2018. After a large fall from the 95.00 area it seems to have stalled and now deciding on whether to continue pushing down, or prove this wedge pattern is the bulls getting ready to go! Between 90.50 and 80.50 seem to be keen bounce areas for price to reverse so keep an eye for a a strong rejection / break of these levels...
DXY to continue lower from these levelsDXY is looking to continue lower from current consolidation levels. We broke head and shoulders from my recent chart and now have been in a downwards channel and broke below that as well. On USDCAD news this morning, we didn't see the dollar push up any on a nearly150 pip spike in USDCAD pair and now USDCAD is about to breach 1.24. I continue to see weakness in DXY continuing.
What's in store for USD in Q2... time to choose our side!Firstly congratulations to those who took shorts on the previous idea (please see attached), very well done for clearing all targets on the handle.
We are rolling with the dollar holding 100.xx post FED - we need to keep in sync with the dollhair to make our next few months a lot easier and it will separate the men from the boys, having a crystal clear map will be invaluable.
OK so with that in mind, lets draw our maps moving forward;
As long as strong prints on the macro front continue, then as will Trump's Honeymoon be extended with tax cuts being tracked like a hawk by smart money. The initial knee jerk rally is over as markets have begun to demand more since Trumpcare fell through.. In any event, there are many doors still open, if not tax cuts then we have huge infrastructure and if all else fails there is always defence (or "attack").
What we now need to track is the pullback we find ourselves in... there is plenty of room either side here, what I aim to do by publishing this idea is to start the discussion and place for us here to track and put in context over the next Q and current leg.
Our options are as follows;
a. BUY above 102.xx -> TP 109.xx
b. SELL below 98.xx -> TP 92.xx
c. sidelined, waiting for things to become clearer
d. No idea
DXY shortHi Seildev here.
This looks remarkably similar to the DXY slip in May this year.
- Point A shows the attempted recovery from 18th/May ~ 19th/May however fell lower within a day
- Point B shows similar patterns which shows recovery however will fall within a day.
Projected high move to hit 96.44 and fade.
Projected DXY to be 94.5 by end of this month. DXY has been avoiding patterns and showing impulse movements to bait retail traders which in turn reverses after 24 hour period. This is the new day of Q3 and start of new financial quarter which psychologically may portray a "fresh start" image for the heavily fading US dollar in the past quarter. I believe this would be a fake out and will reverse within 96.2 ~ 96.4 down to 94.5 by the end of this month.
Please trade with care. This is only my opinion from backtesting.
DXY Seems bullish today news are commingToday many Events From USA like
US CPI m/m
US Core CPI m/m
US Retail Sales m/m
US Retail Sales m/m
and few others. As Technically Strong support at 99.3 level and as Fundamental also data seems in favor of usd it data comes good and hold support we can see usd 100-100.4 level soon.
Stay long with usd till not breaks 99.2
Big Day for DXY Expecting Volatility Important day a head As Calendar
BOJ Press Conference with in 25 mins.
RBA Gov Lowe Speaks @ 2.10PM
Eur Minimum Bid Rate @ 4.45PM
Eur ECB Press Conference
US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
US Unemployment Claims
@ 5.30PM
US Pending Home Sales m/m
@ 7.00PM
Timing as per PST +5 GMT. Expecting bad day for USD.