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GBPCAD, short-term potential +/- 200 pips on short set-up A potential short trade is busy setting up for this coming week starting on 12 November 2018. FUNDAMENTAL Fundamentals will probably support a weaker GBP. Economic red news releases include GBP: cpi, retail sales and inflation reporting. Should all of or most of these news items be negative for the GBP, a definite GBP weakness will be experienced. Note: no significant news releases scheduled for the CAD. TECHNICAL Price appear to be oversold on the 4hr chart. The Ichimoku indicator on the 1hr chart show further weakness. It therefore imply a potential short position is in the making that might produce +/- 200 pips. See potential price levels for entry, profit taking and risk management on chart. Remember, anything can happen. Happy trading
Short
by FrametheMarket101
$TJX Long Idea NOV / DEC Seasonality Seasonally TJX is usually quite strong , earnings are coming up soon and they have announced a split as well. NOV I'm expecting to see some good numbers out of retail names $XRT and strong thanksgiving and Christmas sales as the consumer seems pretty strong. The risk to this setup is if TJX reports poor numbers then I can expect a retracement back to 101/102 if that breaks then $97 for further downside, but for upside I'm looking to target $119-121 by Christmas , if we get good earnings and follow through , but the markets need to cooperate. I'm playing this through DEC 115 calls at $2 , no stop loss for me only small position. Remember this is not financial advice , just what I think.
NYSE:TJXLong
by FridayLottos
ETHUSD Sentiment UpdateTraders! It has been quite some time since I posted a public analysis, but that does not mean that we've stopped looking at the Crypto Markets! Given the start of a new month, I thought this would be a good time to provide a brief update on what I am anticipating in Ethereum world! When we take our Fibonacci and draw it from the low consolidation zone (sub $10/ETH) and bring it up to the All Time High, clearly the primary Fibonacci levels that most traders use are no longer any help. There are hidden "shadow" levels that could be considered but we are not going to go into that in this particular analysis because it's all purely speculative anyways. The red rectangles are the expected range of trading that we could see ETH pull into considering that Afri Schoedon, a developer working on the Parity client for Ethereum, recently asked users to “stop deploying dApps to Ethereum”, as it was running at full capacity. There is some controversy around this topic in particular but it does not change the facts, Ethereum is still going through growing pains and investors may continue to lose confidence. Look at how quickly price action moved away from the yellow rectangle where there was an extended period of consolidation back in Sept/Oct of 2017, and then again at the beginning of Sept this year... this is highlighted where the arrows are pointing. Price is not giving us any clear indication of a bullish market as of this moment. We are still in a downtrend with the clear signs of lower highs, and lower lows. We are not financial advisors. We do not know how high (or low) any Crypto could truly go... but right now remember this: Fundamentals triumph over technicals in this industry! All it takes is one story that is mass promoted through the media to cause mass panic regarding Cryptocurrency, or fear of missing out like we've seen already near the end of 2017. The future of the industry is bright but in the short term this particular cryptocurrency more than likely will see more bearish activity.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by ZacharyHogan
ASNA most likely to mirror back to $8 and then $15 in ~12 monthsArticle Link: aicody.com ASNA is a long-established ecommerce and store retailer, which appears to be solidly back in the competition in such a highly competitive space wherein companies often face operational challenges such as Sears, forced to be merged or acquired such as Versace, or go out of business. However, ASNA's recent financial statements, 57 years of operations, sales concentration on fashion-forward women, geographical center of attention in the U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico, and recent rent reduction plans for its unnecessary stores are the fundamental forces for cost reduction, which is the sole key to profitability and scalability in this sector. Thus, we hold reasons to believe that ASNA's stocks currently project plus buy and double plus hold ratings suitable for both trade and investment purposes. Company Summary Ascena Retail Group, Inc. (ASNA) is an ecommerce and store retailer in the US, Canada and Puerto Rico, offering apparel, shoes, and accessories for women via the Premium Fashion segment (Ann Taylor, LOFT, and Lou & Grey), Value Fashion segment (maurices and dressbarn), Plus Fashion segment (Lane Bryant, Catherines and Cacique), and for tween girls via the Kids Fashion segment (Justice). ASNA operates ~4,600 stores and the following domains: AnnTaylor.com ascenaretail.com Catherines.com dressbarn.com factory.anntaylor.com lanebryant.com LOFT.com louandgrey.com maurices.com outlet.loft.com shopjustice.com Institutional Shareholders BlackRock Fund Advisors: 22.7M (11.57%) reported on 06/30/18 Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.: 6.1M (3.1%) reported on 06/30/18 Dimensional Fund Advisors LP: 16.4M (8.37%) reported on 06/30/18 Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. (Private Banking): 17M 8.67% reported on 06/30/18 PRIMECAP Management Co.: 9.2M (4.67%) reported on 06/30/18 Renaissance Technologies LLC: 4.7M (2.38%) reported on 06/30/18 Sapience Investments LLC: 4.1M (2.08%) reported on 06/30/18 SSgA Funds Management, Inc.: 4.8M (2.45%) reported on 06/30/18 Stadium Capital Management LLC: 19.2M (9.8%) reported on 06/30/18 The Vanguard Group, Inc.: 15.7M (8.02%) reported on 06/30/18 Mutual Funds Shareholders DFA US Small Cap Value Portfolio: 5.02M (2.56%) reported on 04/30/18 iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF: 9.58M (4.88%) reported on 09/6/18 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: 3.67M (1.87%) reported on 09/6/18 iShares S&P Small Cap 600 Value ETF: 2.72M (1.39%) reported on 09/6/18 PRIMECAP Odyssey Stock Fund: 4.1M (2.09%) reported on 06/30/18 Schwab Fundamental US Small Company Index ETF: 3.46M (1.76%) reported on 09/6/18 Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund: 2.27M (1.16%) reported on 08/31/18 Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund: 4.21M (2.15%) reported on 08/31/18 Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund: 2.63M (1.34%) reported on 08/31/18 Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund: 4.15M (2.11%) reported on 08/31/18 Financial Summary For the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018, ASNA reported GAAP income of $0.17 per diluted share compared to a GAAP loss of $0.08 per diluted share in the year-ago period, based on a 4% comparable sales increase and the benefit of an additional week related to ASNA's fiscal calendar. For the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018, ASNA reported adjusted earnings of $0.07 per diluted share compared to adjusted earnings of $0.05 per diluted share in the year-ago period. For full year Fiscal 2018, ASNA reported a GAAP loss of $0.20 per diluted share reflecting a comparable sales decline of 2% and costs associated with ASNA's Change for Growth transformation program, partially offset by the benefit of the additional week. ASNA reported a GAAP loss of $5.48 per diluted share in the year-ago period which included a non-cash pre-tax impairment charge of $1.324B to write down a portion of ASNA's intangible assets. Adjusted earnings for 2018 were a loss of $0.02 per diluted share compared to adjusted earnings of $0.22 per diluted share in the year-ago period. Sales Net sales for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 were $1,766M compared to $1,658M in the year-ago period, with the increase caused by a 4% increase in comparable sales and ~$88M of sales associated with the additional week. Growth Margin Gross margin increased to $1.01B, or 57.5% of sales, for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 compared to $0.95B, or 57.4% of sales in the year-ago period. Gross margin increased from the year-ago period due to increased comparable sales and ~$50M associated with the additional week. Gross margin rate increased 10 basis points, with strong rate improvement at our Premium Fashion and Kids Fashion segments mostly offset by declines at our Plus Fashion and Value Fashion segments. In our Plus Fashion segment, merchandise margin increased from the year-ago period, reflecting improving assortment performance and disciplined inventory management, with the offset caused primarily by higher freight expense resulting from increased digital penetration. The decline in our Value Fashion segment was caused primarily by lower clearance price points at dressbarn. Distributions Buying, distribution, and occupancy (“BD&O”) expenses for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 increased to $324M, which represented 18.4% of sales, compared to $320M, or 19.3% of sales in the year-ago period and included ~$3M of expense associated with the additional week. In terms of dollars, lower occupancy expenses resulting from our fleet optimization program were more than offset by higher variable distribution costs related to the increased penetration of our direct channel business and the expenses associated with the additional week. General and Administrative Selling, general, and administrative (“SG&A”) expenses for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 increased 5% to $527M, or 29.8% of sales, compared to $500M, or 30.1% of sales in the year-ago period. The increase in SG&A expenses was primarily due to $18M of expense associated with the additional week, inflationary increases and higher performance-based compensation, offset in part by ~$30M in synergies and cost reduction initiatives. Operating Loss Operating income for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 was $53M compared to an operating loss of $9M in the year-ago period. The increase in the current year primarily reflects the impact of the additional week, which generated ~$30M, lower costs associated with the Change for Growth transformation program as well as lower acquisition-related costs. On a non-GAAP adjusted basis, operating income was $43M in the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018, compared to $44M in the year ago period as the growth from the comparable sales increase and the impact of the cost savings initiatives were offset by inflationary increases and higher performance-based compensation. Net Income ASNA reported Net income of $33M, or $0.17 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018, compared to a net loss of $16M, or $0.08 per diluted share, in the year-ago period. 2018 Q1 Financial Highlights ASNA ended the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 with Cash and cash equivalents of $239M. ASNA ended the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 with inventory of $623M, down 3% from the year-ago period. Capital expenditures totaled $54M in the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018, primarily to support new capabilities and strategic initiatives. Full year Fiscal 2018 capital expenditures totaled $181M. ASNA ended the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018 with total debt of $1,372M, which represents the balance remaining on the term loan. There were no borrowings outstanding under ASNA's revolving credit facility at the end of the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018. In addition, ASNA had $473M of borrowing availability under its revolving credit facility. During the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2018, ASNA repaid $203M of its term loan and its next scheduled repayment is in November of calendar year 2020. Store and Rent Reductions ASNA closed a net 185 stores during Fiscal 2018 which primarily reflects its continuing fleet optimization program. Under the program, ASNA has decreased ~$50M in annualized rent reductions through landlord negotiations. ASNA's number of stores on a brand-by-brand basis from quarter third to fourth is as follows: Ann Taylor: 306 - 2 = 304 LOFT: 674 - 2 = 672 maurices: 986 - 14 = 972 dressbarn: 739 - 9 = 730 Lane Bryant: 752 - 3 = 749 (4 Closed - 1 Opened = 3) Catherines: 351 - 3 = 348 Justice: 855 - 8 = 847 Total: 4,663 - 41 = 4,622 Forward-Looking Statements for 2019 ASNA is re-instituting full year guidance and expects Fiscal 2019 full year non-GAAP earnings per share ranging from $0.00 to $0.10, supported by the following assumptions: Net sales of $6.45 to $6.55B Comparable sales up low single digits; Gross margin rate of 57.6% to 58.1%; Operating expense growth of ~1%; Depreciation and amortization of $327 to $332M; Operating income of $120 to $140M; Interest expense of ~$112M; Income taxes ~$8M reflecting a 21% tax rate and minimum taxes; and Diluted share count of 200M. Full year capital expenditures are expected in the range of $180 to $210M, and ASNA expects to close ~5% of its Fiscal 2018 year-end fleet, with store count dropping into the range of 4,375 to 4,425 by July 2019. Forward-Looking Statements for 2019 Q1 Fiscal year 2019 first quarter non-GAAP earnings per share is estimated in the range of $(0.04) to $0.06, reflecting a collective unfavorable timing impact of ~$0.10 related to the additional week in Fiscal 2018, which shifted the peak Justice back-to-school week from week 1 of Fiscal 2019 to week 52, and timing related to the adoption of the revenue recognition accounting pronouncement, Accounting Standards Update 2014-19, "Revenue from Contracts with Customers." ASNA's estimated Fiscal 2019 first quarter earnings per share outlook is supported by the following assumptions: Net sales of $1.54 to $1.56B; Comparable sales flat to up 2%; Gross margin rate of 60.0% to 60.5%; Operating expense growth of 1% to 2%; Depreciation and amortization expense of ~$84M; Operating income of $22 to $42M; Interest expense of ~$27M; Income taxes of ~$3M reflecting a 21% tax rate and minimum taxes; and Diluted share count of 200M. CEO's Comments Mr. David Jaffe commented that “Our fourth quarter reflected sequential comp improvement across all our brands, and the first enterprise-level positive comp quarter for ascena since the second quarter of Fiscal 2015. Comparable sales increased 4%, and excluding dressbarn, all brands delivered positive comps. Specific to dressbarn, we delivered a 9 percentage point sequential comparable sales improvement from our third quarter, and have fully reset the brand’s inventory position heading into Fiscal 2019. Adjusted earnings per share of 7 cents came in above our guide, and while we were pleased with progress for the quarter, it represents only the first step in our road back to realizing ascena’s full earnings potential.” Mr. Jaffe states that “We continue to make good progress across the three pillars of our Change for Growth transformation program. We remain on track to achieve $300M in annual run rate savings by July 2019, and are currently implementing the two remaining large capability-building components of our transformation program - localized planning and our customer experience management ecosystem. And as we enter Fiscal 2019, we are leveraging the foundation we’ve built over the past two years to pivot the organization toward the most critical pillar of our transformation program - reinvigorating growth from our core.” Mr. Jaffe believes that “We remain committed to realizing the full value of our brand portfolio and platform capability. At the core of future shareholder value creation is the promise of a highly differentiated and growing group of leading brands, supported by a cost efficient infrastructure. We entered Fiscal 2019 with good base momentum, and key growth initiatives beginning to gain traction across our brands. We are making headway with stabilization of our dressbarn brand, and will continue to explore opportunities across our brand portfolio to create shareholder value." Statistics Shares Outstanding: 0.2B Avg Daily Vol: 2.5M Market Cap: ~1B 52-Week High: $5.29 52-Week Low: $1.69 Forward PE: 203.4 Annual Div/Dividend Yield: 0.00% / 2.5% Annual Rev: ~7B Inst Own: 82.5% 1-Month Return: 10.9% 3-Month Return: 5.1% Next Earnings Report Date: 12/03/2018 Earnings ESP: $0.05 Revenue Per Employee: $98,759 Money Flow Ratio: 0.94 % Profitability Revenue Growth: 1.3% (Sector Average 5.2%) Gross Margin: 57.5% (Sector Average 31.9%) Return on Equity: 24.6% (Sector Average 19.8%) Net Margin: 2.0% (Sector Average 2.9%) Debt Current Ratio: 1.1 (Sector Average 1.4) Debt-to-Capital: 60.1% (Sector Average 51.0%) Interest Funding: 18.3% (Sector Average 7.5%) Interest Coverage: 0.1 (Sector Average 3.7) Dividend Dividend Growth: NA (Sector Average 1.0%) Dividend Payout: NA (Sector Average 45.7%) Dividend Coverage: NA (Sector Average 4.5) Dividend Yield: NA (Sector Average 0.0%) Top Peer Companies Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF) Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN) American Eagle Outfitters, Inc (AEO) Ascena Retail Group, Inc (ASNA) Buckle Inc (BKE) Cato Corporation (CATO) Citi Trends, Inc (CTRN) Dillard's Inc (DDS) DSW Inc (DSW) Etsy Inc (ETSY) Express Inc (EXPR) Five Below Inc (FIVE) Francesca's Holding Corp (FRAN) Gap Inc (GPS) Genesco Inc (GCO) J C Penney Company Inc (JCP) Kohl's Corporation (KSS) Lands End Inc (LE) Macy's Inc (M) Marks And Spencer Group PLC (MAKSY) Marui Group Co LTD (MAURY) Neiman Marcus Group, Inc (NMG) New York & Company Inc (NWY) Nordstrom Inc (JWN) Qurate Retail Inc (QRTEA) Ross Stores Inc (ROST) Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD) Sears Hometown and Outlet (SHOS) Target Corporation (TGT) Tillys Inc (TLYS) Walmart Inc (WMT) Wayfair Inc (W) Guidance 2019 Q1 Total Sales: $1.54-$1.56B Gross Margin: 60.0%-60.5% Depreciation and amortization: ~$84M Operating Income: $22-$42M Interest Expense: ~$27M Diluted Share Count: 200M EPS: $0.04-$0.06 Guidance 2019 Total Sales: $6.45-$6.55B Gross Margin: 57.6%-58.1% Depreciation and amortization: $327-$332M Operating Income: $120-$140M Interest Expense: ~$112M Diluted Share Count: 200M EPS: $0.00-$0.10 Stores: 4,375-4,425 12 Month Price Target Mean: $8.33 High: $15.01 Low: $2.18 Earnings Surprise Positive (+6.7%) Trade and Investment Ratings Ratings from strongest (+++) to weakest (---) are as follows: 60-Month Investment: +++ 36-Month Investment: ++ 12-Month Investment: + 3-Month Investment: Neutral 1-Month Investment: Neutral Single Day-Trade: Neutral Multi Day-Trade: Neutral Single Short-Term Short-Sell: Neutral Multi Short-Term Short-Sell: - Long-Term Short-Sell: --
ALong
by aicody
The RAD Lottery Ticket Play For A Desperate PortfolioWith the rapidly expanding prescription drug market, one may take a flyer out on this stock (Rite Aid). As most of you know Rite Aid sold a vast amount of their stores to Walgreens, but the real story is those stores that were sold were in key geographic locations and created large amounts of revenue. I have been tracking this stock since 2013, and the common theme is this company is on the way back to the top. As price action shows over time this company is on the fast track to nowhere. The company is in crippling debt, and the revenue raised by the sale of store locations still isn't enough.
R
by hesswg48
AMZN 10-Day Ahead Prediction 05/21 - 06/04 PeriodArtificial Intelligence/Deep Learning Enabled 10 Day Ahead Predicted values for Amazon Inc ( AMZN ) have been plotted on the chart. You can see FinBrain's previous predictions for AMZN (04/11 - 04/17 and 04/30 - 05/11 Time Periods) on the same chart as well. The method used in this prediction is Deep Learning/Artificial Neural Network based, and using complex mathematical models/methodologies to analyze and extract hidden time series features in vast amounts of AMZN related data. The "trained" and optimized neural network then generates the multi-day ahead predictions which are plotted on the chart and given in the explanation below. The expected 5 Day Change is 0.945 % The expected 10 Day Change is 1.803 % Predictability Indicator is calculated as : 0.757 Predicted 10-Day Ahead Prices are as the followings: Mon May 21 Tue May 22 Wed May 23 Thu May 24 Fri May 25 1573.6 1577.0 1581.7 1586.3 1589.2 Tue May 29 Wed May 30 Thu May 31 Fri Jun 01 Mon Jun 04 1591.8 1594.4 1597.3 1600.2 1602.7 Please note that outliers/non-linearities might occur, however FinBrain's Artificial Intelligence/Deep Learning Enabled predictions indicate the softened/smoothed moving direction of the stocks/commodities/World Indices/ETFs/Foreign Currencies/Cryptocurrencies.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by AhmetSBilgin
Wal-Mart $2 Bucks from Strong Support, Entry into India. . .Many believe India and China are the future of retail. Wal-Mart seems to agree, and on 5/9 announced a $16 billion USD bid for a 77% stake in Flipkart, India's premier online retailer. Wal-Mart paid up to beat out Amazon for this exposure to Asian retail. Will it be worth it? Luxury retail is in great demand but everyday retail is struggling, especially in the United States. Wages remain stagnant, consumers are turning more and more to debt, and western countries don't offer much in the way of growth for retailers (indeed, several retailers have been driven to bankruptcy in recent years). Wal-Mart provides a place for the everyday consumer to buy everyday products, but margins can only continue to compress as: 1. the cost of goods rises with a consumer that can't handle increased costs passed onto them, and 2. WMT fights to reorganize to take market share in attractive online and Asian markets. Wal-Mart needs to catch up to compete with Alibaba and Amazon in markets with growth potential, and seems to be taking the right steps to do so. In the short-term, that could be bad for share price - or is the "bad" already baked in, and are traders\investors ready to pay up for Wal-Mart stock? Wal-Mart has to compete for its share of fruitful markets, even if it means margin compression. Looking at the technicals, Wal-Mart has abruptly fallen to near strong support in and around $81 USD. WMT reports Q1 2018 earnings on 5\17, and it's conceivable the numbers can't come in much worse than the downside upset from Q4 2017's earnings call back in February. Is disappointing news baked in to the price already, with Wall Street already expecting a little pain as Wal-Mart transitions into the company it needs to be to take on Amazon and Alibaba in shifting online and global markets? WMT paid up to jump in to growing East Indian (and Chinese) retail - it more or less had to, and "had to" isn't a good place to be when negotiating deals - but will an exploding Asian retail scene lead to explosive moves upward in the price of WMT shares? The move up may or may not be today or tomorrow, but presently, the company's decisionmaking seems to bode well for Wal-Mart's future. Please like, follow, and share, and maybe we can have fun and do great things together. Thanks again! See it on the site: holsturr.com/category/markets/charts/ ** For speculative and research purposes only - good luck! **
NYSE:WMTLong
by holsturr
Huge Potential (profit and game-changer)INS EcosystemOverview As people's lives are getting busier, they are turning towards technology to make their day to day tasks easier. Online grocery shopping being one of them was $98 billion in 2015 and according to IDG, it is poised to grow to $290 billion in 2020. Even though convenience is key, cheaper prices can have a huge impact on where and how the consumer shops. Enter INS ecosystem! They are creating an ecosystem where suppliers can sell their product directly to the consumer. They want to cut off the middle man, the retailer, who has a markup range of 30% to 50%. This can mean that these savings can be passed onto the consumer. Consumers can buy products from the platform using Fiat (2-3% card fees), BTC & ETH ( transaction fees) and you guessed it, leads us to the INS token which has virtually no transaction fee. The other payment methods have limited access to loyalty rewards whereas INS holders will be rewarded in full. That leads us to price and potential price of token! Currently, a token will cost you $1.29 (22/03/2018 21:37 GMT). When the token was made available for trading, the price was at $4.97 on Jan 12, 2018, quickly rising to $10.93 by 15th Jan 2018. Since then BTC fell and so did this token along with other alt coins. Right now you can buy the token at some discounted prices. So the potential... I do believe that if BTC hadn't dropped, this token would have rapidly increased in price. And here are some of the reasons why. Huge interest from major brands such as Reckitt Benckiser Pioneers in this industry using blockchain Price saving for consumer and convenience Suppliers don't have to deal with retailer bureaucracy Supplier can reward consumers directly rather than paying for retailer promotions, thereby guaranteeing consumer loyalty. If they actually manage to pull this off, this will revolutionise the grocery retail industry. Now, imagine that they manage to pull it off and acquire 1% of the potential grocery market in 2020. That would be $2.9 billion. Now, let's say that their total supply of 50m tokens has been released. That would still put a token at $58 which is nearly 45 times the current value. Also, bear in mind that the suppliers themselves will have to store some of the token themselves to reward the consumers. Alternatively let's say that they didn't manage to pull this off. Since they have given valid arguments, has interest from major suppliers, listed on major exchanges and hasn't been hyped much, when the hype does actually come, the forecast of $58 could be easily achieved. Either way I have invested in this token (and no this isn't a paid promotion) as I believe it can provide me a good return on my investment. Please feel free to share your thoughts on this. Please do not take this as financial advise. Just my opinion. Do your own research before you do any sort of investment. This is just my analysis of the potential of the token and I could be wrong.
ILong
by GBBBKSA
ASCENA Retail, Short Term Roll/Consolidating, ASNAI am not licensed or certified by any individual or institution to give financial advice. I am not a professional Stock Trader. For the short term I believe ASNA is rolling. My prediction for the immediate future is it will continue down to one of my two Support lines (either $1.95ish or $1.85ish). Once Ascena hits one of those lines I believe it will bounce and continue its roll back up to a $2.47ish Resistance. If Ascena hits one of the two Support lines I've drawn and bounces up, and the market tone of the main Indexes ends the current retracemet and reverses back to the ongoing Bull trend, I will consider entering an up play.
AShort
by AROD01