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EURUSD - Long Bias For This Week Unless This ChangesEURUSD - Bullish market sentiment is evidenced by the daily breakout and close above the key price and confluent long-term Fib resistance level at 1.1043 on 2/3. Adding further weight to a long-side bias for this week, retail net open interest stands at -1.6927, indicating continued long risk exposure is more favorable than taking-on short risk. At least until and unless price closes below the 8/21 EMA support layer, the EMAs cross-over to the downside, or retail positioning pulls back significantly (to more than -1.2 or higher), or reverses into positive territory. Implied volatility is also low this week until Thursday, so risk reversal on entry will be lower than normal until then.
Long
by mbauerfx
Head and Shoulder Bed Bath and Beyond BBBY has formed a classic head and shoulders reversal pattern. With poor guidance and an update on recent estimates this stock is likely going to continue going down for the next 3-9 months. Consumer spending seems to be shifting away from this store as more people are buying retail goods online. The so called "Santa Claus" rally is likely going to leave investors even more disappointing. I'm looking for a bounce around the $36 previous support.
NASDAQ:BBBYShort
by Bitcoin_Altcoin
KORS- More room to fallThe downward channel broke severely to the downside this week after KORS plummeted an additional 25% post-earnings. I think the multi-year lows of ~35/36 will be tested if not breached. Even if the stock is slightly oversold in the very near term, the trend on the technicals is pretty clear. Fundos- After a dismal earnings release and a 25% drop in the price of shares over the last week, I still think KORS may have more room to tumble. The low price to earnings ratio may lead some investors to believe KORS is a value, but I believe it may be a classic value trap. Overall sales may be increasing but there are major caveats. Margins & comparable same store sales are down. This is a reflection of luxury brand status deterioration. The ubiquity of KORS products is indicative of an over-saturated brand. The products are commonly owned by people in lower economic strata. In my view, this has caused KORS to enter the faux luxury category. To increase incremental sales, KORS has offered deep discounts on their core luxury products (watches & purses). This negatively impacts the bottom line each quarter since margins take a hit. More importantly however, the long term growth prospects will wane if consumers begin to think KORS is no longer 'in', or if they no longer think of it as a luxury brand. Discounting a brand's flagship products is deleterious to the company's image and their long term profitability (see Coach, Abercrombie, countless others)
KShort
by dsorchestra90
Macys - Another Retail Long Term TrendYou are looking at a WEEKLY chart of Macys. This stock has been in an uptrend for 6 years! As you look through a bunch of stock charts each weekend, you should be looking for stocks like this one. There is no telling how long this uptrend will last but the trend is your friend until its not. My advice, wait for a pull back to the uptrend line (UT 3) or a break above the current downtrend line (DT). When you get either one of these, go long with a comfortable stop. There is no way to know it will definitely be the right time to buy the stock. So use comfortable stops and pay attention to the trend lines. I want to remind you about the moving averages. Draw a chart of Macys with the 8, 21, 50, 100, 150, and 200 moving averages (ma). I prefer the exponential moving averages but use simple or standard. You will get the picture either way. The current stock price of Macys is between the 8 and 21 moving averages. The 21 week moving average has been a very good place to buy Macys in the past. On rare occasions it has dropped to the 50 week moving average. That was an even better place to buy.
NYSE:M
by TheTrendLineInvestor
Happy Mother's Day - A Look At Retail StocksHappy Mothers Day!! To all of you who give birth to our children, you deserve so much more than just one day a year... Now don't take this wrong but when I think of the women in my life they all have one thing in common - Shopping! In the best way possible, they all love to shop or have accepted the shopping "chore" as I refer to it. Shopping is a HUGE chore in my opinion. Not one that I would like to take on as many women have. Many teach the "invest in what you know & understand" lesson. Even if you are not the one out there shopping, you know where the important women in your life shop. Places like Costco, Macy's, Target, TJ Max, Ross, Kohls, Lulu Lemon, etc. Can I just say I LOVE yoga pants! Oops. Sorry. That was off topic... If women really like going there to shop, you may be looking at a good investment. Pull up the charts for the stores I have listed above and any other store that you know is a frequent destination for the women in your life. My guess is you will find some good investing opportunities. You are looking at a WEEKLY chart of Costco (Cost). Back in 2008 & 2009 the stock was in a downtrend. But once there was a weekly close above the downtrend line back in early 2009, the stock never looked back. You could have entered a long position at around $45 per share six years ago. On average you could have made about 41% per year since then. In August of 2010 the buying picked up. You can see the beginning of UT 2. And that uptrend line lasted until the middle of 2014. At that point is where UT 3 began. The stock is currently way above UT 3 and coming down. It may stop at the first of second horizontal lines. It may drop to UT 3. Or it could drop to UT 2. No one really knows. The one thing I will tell you is when there is a weekly close above the red DT line, you should look at buying again. I would say you have a high probability, at that point, of doing just fine. Why not buy now? Well mostly because the stock is following a downtrend line at the moment. There is one other thing I would like to point out. If you plot the 8, 21, 50, 100, 150, and 200 exponential moving averages you will see that they are stacked in the proper order. Just like they should be for a long investment. If you have a company you want me to chart for you just ask me in the comments section of this idea. Have a great day!
NASDAQ:COST
by TheTrendLineInvestor
JCP is it possible?!? may be.As in my past analysis for JCP, I showed that the key for this stock to go higher is the supporting performance and news. This stock has a bright future, volatility was very high for this stock in both directions (up & down) which means there were some smart money out there accumulating in the stock (it is obvious in the positive divergence with the RSI). What's NEXT?!? The stock has to trade above $7.95 for at least 3 days to be able to continue for the next levels which are $8.56 and then $9.17. the Failure to trade above $7.95 for 3 days might be an indication of weakness and that the smart money which accumulated at lower levels are selling after the positive news announced. Thank you, Have a good trade.
JLong
by mohnagi