Reverse Repos - ATH - KarmaGeddeon Bid Expands to $1.35 TrillionNon-Financial rated Debt, Corporate Debt will begin to roll over as GDP Forecasts,
although no longer provided... does not matter, the Global Economy is once again
on the Steep Decline.
Supply Chain Issues compound monthly, with no end in sight.
The answer is, Buy STONKS, they are the New, New, New, and Improved Liquidity Economy.
Stocks are the Economy for most Americans. GDP is resolved with Gains in Zombie Companies
buying Trillions of their own shares.
1.6 Million Options were swapped for Tesla Friday, 52% Calls.
The Gamma Squeeze for protected entities is in trade.
Yeah, Naw, we'll pass for now, wait for the Pullback into the Final Stage of this Historic
Bull Market.
Commodities are pitching a large Bis as the Safety Trade is back in force.
There will be a final Blow Off Higher into 2022 as Debt Markets join the idiocy until
it all simply implodes.
2022 is going to be a very difficult year for most.
Perpetual Bonds are assured, the reset there will require a degree of patience while the
"Distribution Phase" requires time.
Insider selling remains robust, Retails are going All-in on the YOLO.
Meme's will begin to roll over and collapse into the next Sell, which is ahead.
We will see how long they can continue this Distribution .
Margin Debt remains elevated at Highs.
INever forget Crammer issuing Buys in March of the DotCom peak for the most bloated
overvalued JUNK Stocks which promptly collapsed from $600 to $0.
2022... one for the Books after 5/5 completes.
E-retail
Patterns of possible market correction or reversal 😎Trend reversal or correction chart patterns announce a reversal of the current trend on the observed chart. The output of the figure is made, theoretically, in the opposite direction to the movement that precedes the formation of the pattern. In an uptrend, a reversal pattern indicates a bearish move. On the contrary, in a downtrend, it announces an upward movement.
It works in all temporalities but, the longer the temporality of the candles, the better the pattern will do and the more effective
Dada Nexus Beats Q2 2021 Earnings Estimates, Growth AcceleratesCreating extra value for JD.com's 530 million active users will be the company's next strategic endeavor.
With the tumultuous unfolding around China's major New York-listed tech companies, plenty of mid-cap stocks have been affected as well, losing their market value in 2021. In some cases, however, investors' fear has little to nothing to do with the firms' real fundamentals.
Dada Nexus (DADA:NASDAQ) may be one such company. The Chinese operator of on-demand delivery and retail platforms recently posted its Q2 2021 financials. This time, the key results slightly exceeded both the analyst consensus and the firm's own projections, showing a pro forma revenue growth of 81.3% (the revenue recognition model was changed in April) and CNY 549 million in net loss – the Street's average expectation was CNY 615 million.
Dada was founded in 2014 as an "open local on-demand delivery platform" and took its present form after a merger with JD.com's (JD:NASDAQ) spinoff JDDJ in 2016; since the completion of that deal, it has been developing around a duo of products, boosting the core services' scope and building adjacent businesses and partnerships. In June 2020, the firm went public on Nasdaq, raising funds vital to stay competitive in the ongoing battle for Chinese consumers.
A growth-stage company, Dada is scrambling for a larger market share while moving towards profitability. Throughout the June quarter, its expansion continued.
This article looks at the key indicators' dynamics to analyze Dada Now and JDDJ's performance within those three months. We first crunch the newly reported data, then calculate key ratios to track the progress in financials and unit economics. To top it off, we provide a glance at Dada's tech initiatives beyond the two platforms.
"JD's over 530 million users" and COVID-19
In the twelve months through June 2021, the number of JDDJ's active users reached 51.3 million, increasing by 58.8% year-on-year. Dada relates this growth, among other things, to its cooperation with JD.com. During the earnings call, the company's executives stated that it "continued to win customers' trust" and is going to proceed with the "in-depth cooperation with JD to better serve the omnichannel and on-demand needs of JD's over 530 million active users." In addition, a new tool is being constructed at the intersection of the two digital ecosystems: 'Fujin', the former's entry point within the latter's app, has been tested in a handful of cities, including Shenzhen and Shanghai.
The duet's convergence is happening amid a post-COVID boom in the Chinese on-demand retail market. The number of users in the space has lately skyrocketed and is projected (link in Chinese) to grow at a 31% CAGR from 2019 to 2023. Consumers have changed their shopping habits forever.
It's also crucial that despite the magnitude of new possible outbreaks in China, this trend will remain strong, as the fix-cost-burdened offline stores are embracing online traffic. And Dada is among the country's top platforms that drive brick-and-mortar players' online sales, accelerating their adoption of digital tools.
From the ESG perspective, COVID-19 has pushed Dada Group to shoulder more social responsibility. Its executives stated that the company had worked "closely with local governments to provide the daily supplies and the on-demand delivery for the customers," and, as a result, "received recognition from the government."
More merchants, new partners and categories
Users are just a part – although the most critical one – of the story. The supply-side matters as much. As per the company, this quarter, JDDJ made significant progress in category expansion.
In retrospect, Dada started its business with groceries and has now covered a number of areas, such as pharma and apparel. By now, it has been taking the lead in the supermarket category and seeking partnerships with big chains. By the end of Q2 2021, hands had been shaken between Dada and "80 chains out of China's top 100."
The most recent attempt in the consumer electronics arena was emphasized a couple of times in the investor conference. As on-demand retailing has gradually been recognized by smartphone manufacturers, Dada has partnered with hundreds of distributors and established cooperation with Apple and vivo, among other major brands. Besides, the company stepped further into the PC category, cooperating with Microsoft, Asus, Dell and Alienware, among others. In response to an analyst's question, the executives disclosed that the potential of some new categories, including home appliances and cosmetics, will be further explored.
User acquisition at full pelt
In Q2, Dada's total expenses have added to around CNY 2.21 billion. The sales and marketing cost grew from CNY 386 million in Q2 2020 to CNY 824 million in Q2 2021. According to the unaudited financial results, this boost was mainly driven by the rising "incentives given to JDDJ consumers" and "referral fees paid to retailer store staff and third parties" to attract new users to the platform. Considerable investment was also directed to R&D, showing the intention to build comprehensive tech products on top of the company's commercial network. (One is Haibo.)
The operations and support expenses reached CNY 1.14 billion, compared with CNY 1.10 billion in the same quarter of 2020. The rise in rider cost stemming from the increasing intra-city delivery order volume mainly contributed to the accretion of this category; but this was partially offset by the decrease of rider-related costs incurred by the last-mile delivery business model upgrade – "effective since April 2021, the cost of riders for last-mile delivery services has been directly paid through third-party companies instead of through the company."
Even though the company experienced massive revenue growth in Q2, the spending on market expansion has kept the net profit margin at low levels. On a sequential basis, though, Dada improved its net profit margin, thanks to the efficiency gain in operations and consumer incentives.
Unit economics steadily improving
Positive dynamics in absolute figures, be it revenue or user pool growth, are never enough to claim success for a pre-profit platform economy enterprise. Dada's key business ratios, nonetheless, show some progress, too.
The trailing-twelve-months (TTM) revenue of JDDJ jumped from CNY 1.10 billion in Q4 2019 to CNY 2.97 billion in Q2 2021. In the meantime, the number of the platform's new users has been growing steadily, from 24.4 million to 51.3 million, up by 110.2%. The average revenue per user (ARPU) thereby rose from CNY 45.20 to CNY 57.90.
Using Meituan's Q2 2019 number (53.6%) as a proxy for quarter-on-quarter user retention rate (as opposed to customer churn) and the only assumption in this analysis, we found that JDDJ's user base may not only grow on the TTM basis, but the speed might have been accelerating continuously over the past eight quarters, which was perhaps caused by the platform's significant word-of-mouth marketing potential and effective referral system.
New tech, no red flags
Reporting a financially solid three-month period, Dada announced a few other updates this time. For one thing, it included an extra 1,000 stores into SaaS Haibo's network. The company is also developing an open autonomous delivery operation system, enabling on-demand retail applications for various hardware providers. The system has been tested and reportedly adopted by JD's SEVEN FRESH and Yonghui Superstores.
Both projects are narratives to keep tabs on. Those are highly likely to become key differentiators in the upcoming maturity phase of the on-demand delivery and retail market.
Over the past quarters, Dada Nexus has been growing at high double digits; good fundamentals and a balanced tactical arsenal are set to protect its market position.
For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
Retail vs Institutional InvestorsRetail
✔️Retail Traders are individual traders who buy or sell stocks, securities, or assets from their personal accounts.
✔️Retail Investors mostly focus on technical analysis, price patterns, and Indicators.
✔️Because of low volume, orders submitted by a retail trader cannot affect the price of an asset.
✔️Retail traders can come out of trades or their positions easily at any time with minimum slippage.
✔️Retails investors have more quality of life as they don't have to trade on a regular basis and can take a break whenever they want.
Institutions
✔️Institutional traders are highly skilled individuals who have a degree in finance, economy, or math and are employed by large institutions to do the trading.
✔️Institutional traders carry out the most trades over any major exchanges and greatly influence the price of a security, commodity, stock, or cryptocurrency.
✔️Institutional Traders have access to a large amount of capital and exotic products. They also have early access to the latest news and buzz as they have the
ability to pay a good amount to various media outlets.
✔️Institutional Traders manage accounts for larger groups or institutions, banks, hedge funds to buy and sell stocks.
✔️Because of large volume orders, institutional traders can greatly impact the prices of a security
✔️Institutional traders focus on fundamentals, sentiments, and trading psychology.
What kind of trader are you? And let us know more differences between these two in the comments box below.
Follow us for more educational ideas, analyses, and scripts.
Happy Trading!
BUY TJX Companies (TJX) for a move up to $89.50Dear followers & copiers,
💎We've just opened a LONG $TJX (TJX Companies Inc) position using 3.63% of our equity. You can follow our corporate investment portfolio for FREE on eToro. 📈
What does $TJX actually do? ✅
The company is based in Framingham, MA, and is a leading off-price retailer of apparel and home fashion goods both in the U.S. as well as globally.
TJX Companies has become a world widely recognized brand and symbol of buying goo-quality fashion products at a fair price. The company has more than 4,300 stores worldwide, which makes TJX a truly global enterprise.
TJX Companies has always focused on introducing a wide range of products across at varying prices in an attempt to appeal to a larger customer audience. Furthermore, The TJX Companies implements very well the rapid turn of inventory strategy for attracting customers, where the company basically creates the sense of urgency and scarcity for its products.
🥇One of the most important things not only in an oversaturated sector like Retail, but also in an industry like Fashion retail is to be able to build a strong USP, as that would help you to separate yourself from the pack and stand out in some way. The company has been able to distinguish itself from traditional retailers through the usage of opportunistic buying strategies and the facilitation of a flexible business model.
Furthermore, The TJX Companies has established its operations through the implementation of a generally low-cost structure , which definitely sets it apart from other traditional retailers. For example, in order to maintain control on costs, the company has chosen to promote retail banners, rather than specific brands.
From a distribution network standpoint, $TJX is also designed in a cost effective and efficient manner. One of the ways through which the company has managed to accomplish that is through the development of strong relations with the vendors that $TJX is working with. TJX Companies later uses these strong relationships in order to leverage buying power, negotiate better business parameters and deals.
💯The TJX Companies operates through four business segments:
In the U.S., it operates through two segments, namely, Marmaxx (through stores under the names of T.J. Maxx and Marshalls) and HomeGoods.
Marmaxx divisions (60.3% of FY21 Sales) sell family apparel (including footwear and accessories), home fashions (including home basics, accent furniture, lamps, rugs, wall décor, decorative accessories and giftware) and other merchandise.
HomeGoods (18.9% of FY21 Sales) chain offers home basics, giftware, accent furniture, lamps, rugs, wall décor and decorative accessories from around the world, seasonal and other merchandise.
In Canada, it operates through TJX Canada (8.8% of FY21 Sales) through stores under the names of Winners, Marshalls and HomeSense and in Europe, it operates through TJX International (12% of FY21 Sales) through stores under the names of T.K. Maxx and HomeSense.
Why we bought the stock? 🤩
The HomeGoods segment has been seeing robust demand for a while now. In Q2, comp store sales of those stores that have remained open surged 36% YoY. The strong upside should not be a surprise to investors as TJX Companies has experienced solid and continuous sales growth not only in just few categories but rather across its whole product portfolio. The Net Profit from the HomeGoods' segment was also up 42% from fiscal 2020 levels.
Another major positive catalyst for the stock in the future will be the launch of homegoods.com in Q3 of this year. We believe that this is a major step in the right direction for $TJX, which will drastically improve its profitability and increase its customer base. With the secular bull market that we are seeing in the Real Estate sector and the favorable demographic development around Millenials and Gen Z becoming first-time home owners, we expect to see hundreds of millions of people needing a place to buy qualitative home furnishing goods at a relatively low price. TJX Companies will be in a great position to offer just that!
The company has continued to invest heavily in its marketing and advertising campaigns and has further developed attractive, innovative and different loyalty programs, gift giving initiatives, "treasure hunt shopping" and other club benefits.
As a result of the serious increase in online shopping worldwide TJX Companies has undertaken several initiatives to boost its online sales and strengthen its e-commerce business. This shows that the company is willing to evolve together with the always-changing market conditions.
On the Q2 earnings call, the management highlighted that it is seeing impressive sales growth for both the U.S. and U.K. online businesses. The TJX Companies’ off-price model, together with its strategic store locations, impressive brands and fashion products, are definitely expected to serve as a strong catalyst for both in stores and online performance.
📈 Technical Analysis 📈
After the most recent 10% correction in the stock price, #TJX is currently sitting at a very strong support zone around the $68-70 range. As you can see on the chart there are few key supports that are currently in play. Firstly, we have the 50-day EMA, which is currently sitting at a around $70, then we also have the upward sloping diagonal support of the uptrend that started at the end of March, 2020, lying at $68. Last but not least we have the 200-day EMA sitting at $66.47 acting as a safety net to the downside. Following the great fundamental story behind the company, the fantastic discount in the stock price, the strong uptrend that the stock has been moving within for over a year and a half now and the multitude of technical supports lying at current levels we are strongly BULLISH on the stock for both the short and mid-term. Our year-end price target for #TJX is $89.50. 🚀🚀🚀
Sincerely,
Dow Experts
Retail Sales - Macro Data US CB - www.census.gov
Advance Monthly, Monthly and Annual Retail Trade Reports, and the Quarterly E-Commerce Report.
July decline of 1.1%. - dismal
August - Back to School - dismal
September - Back to Business - dismal
The August 2021 Advance Monthly Retail report is scheduled for release on September 16, 2021 at 8:30 AM EST
Retail tends to follow Auto sales - Forecasters expect U.S. auto sales to decline in August 2021
Sales for August 2021 are expected to be around 1.1 million cars and trucks combined, down 13.7% vs. August 2020
and down 25.3% vs. pre-COVID
Dada Posts Strong Q2 2021 Results The Chinese local on-demand delivery and retail platform has announced its unaudited financial results for the second quarter, maintaining the strong growth momentum.
– In the second quarter of 2021, Dada Nexus' (DADA:NASDAQ) total net revenues increased to CNY 1.47 billion, which is above the Street's consensus expectation of CNY 1.41 billion and the company's high-end guidance of CNY 1.45 billion. Aligning the revenue recognition method of Dada Now last-mile delivery services to net basis, pro forma revenue growth would have been 81.3% year-over-year.
Dada also reported a quarterly non-GAAP net loss of CNY 549 million, against the Street's expectation of CNY 615 million.
Dada has continued to win Chinese consumers' trust by providing "timely, efficient and high-quality services." The number of trailing-twelve-month active consumers on JDDJ increased by around 60% year-on-year to 51.3 million as of June 30. The company will continue to execute its in-depth cooperation with JD, to better serve the omni-channel and on-demand needs of JD's over 530 million active users. GMV of JDDJ for the twelve months ended June 30, was CNY 32.3 billion, an increase of 77% year-over-year.
"Dada Group has long served the real economy and is growing together with brick-and-mortar retailers as well as our brand partners. We welcome the stepping up of regulations and firmly believe it will be good for the long-term sustainable development of the industry. There is enormous potential in the on-demand retail industry for us to explore," said Mr. Philip Kuai, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Dada Group. "Through the deepening cooperation with JD, we continue to build strong partnerships with our retail and brand partners, working together to create value to consumers. Our partners will continue to benefit from our technology platform and high levels of innovation. Together, with Dada's commitment to bring people everything on demand, we will continue to focus on long-term value creation to the benefit of enterprises and consumers around China."
JDDJ has maintained a top position in the supermarket category and partnered with 80 of the top 100 supermarket chains, including 9 of the top 10. Meanwhile, it established direct partnerships with smartphone brands, including Apple and vivo, and has newly partnered with Microsoft, ASUS, Dell and Alienware, gradually moving their offline stores online. As a SaaS product that enables retailers to drive O2O sales while streamlining operations, Dada's Haibo System has been adopted by more than 4,300 retail chain stores as of the end of August, covering over 40% of the top 100 supermarket chains.
As a platform that connects consumers and merchants with crowdsource-based delivery services, Dada Now provides a large number of flexible employment opportunities to society, and at the same time, it is committed to protecting the rights and interests of gig economy workers. During the second quarter, Dada Now's on-demand delivery service to chain merchants continued to see explosive growth, with year-over-year revenue growth accelerating to over 140%. In July, it officially launched the Dada Autonomous Delivery Open Platform, which is open to autonomous vehicle companies, such as JD Logistics and aims to accelerate the commercial use of autonomous delivery.
Chicos FAS $CHS, the penny stock leading retailAfter formming a pennat pattern above its moving averages, today made the breakout with good volume. The detail is that it didn't close at the high but still, I think its a confirmed breakout. Because the stock its very volatile, I got in with half my position. I'll wait until the price breaks above the $7.26 resistance to buy the rest.
At first my price target would be $8.15 but, according to the rules that can be use to forceast future prices with this type of continuation pattern, I'll just put my stop on breakeven and wait and see if it can get to the $9.80 target.
AMEX:XRT is rank 7 among the top 100 ETFs in Barchart (www.barchart.com). That means that the retail sector is leading the market, this gives me confidence on this buy. I'm also watching NYSE:BURL . A good buy zone for NYSE:BURL would be above the $350 zone.
Payment Processors Are Setting Up To Get REKTMany of the payment processors and banks i look at seems to have some sort of indication that it will be going down soon Visa is just one of many. Today will be the closing of the month for VISA and many others and like many others Visa will be bearishly engulfing on the monthly and breaking down a rising wedge.
La-Z-BoyCompany Description:
La-Z-Boy Incorporated is one of the world's leading residential furniture producers, marketing furniture for every room of the home. The La-Z-Boy Upholstery segment companies are La-Z-Boy and England. The Casegoods segment consists of three brands: American Drew, Hammary and Kincaid. The company-owned Retail segment of the La-Z-Boy Furniture Galleries stores. The corporation's branded distribution network is dedicated to selling La-Z-Boy Incorporated products and brands, and includes the stand-alone La-Z-Boy Furniture Galleries stores and the independent Comfort Studio' locations, in addition to in-store gallery programs for Kincaid and England.
Analysis:
When taking a look at the 4 hour chart, I see a few indicators that gives me bullish sentiment:
1. Candles near strong support.
2. RSI starting momentum upwards and coming off of an oversold area?
3. Mac D on its down side. Flashing black and may be losing its recent downtrend momentum.
4. High before the most recent previous high was broken.
5. New low was made. However, new accumulation stage forming?
6. 50/200 EMA Cross approaching with 2nd Orange Renko forming?
Looking for a price target of $40! Not Financial Advice. Always Do Research Before Decision!
TED break and retouch of 200 EMA.Following a break of the medium term downtrend (from recent peak), last week saw the break of the 50 and 200EMA, then 2 days ago a small sell off and retouch of both, followed by a reversal suggesting a continuation of the recent new uptrend.
MACD still positive and RSI still rising on the daily chart.
Position ahead of trading statement on 7 Sept, which follows other's in the sector which have posted signs of positive post covid turnarounds.
$EBAY: Tapering proof? With Jackson Hole this week looking to create rotation in certain names, I believe you may be able to look beyond it to mid caps like EBAY who have been showing a tremendous amount of relative strength recently against the broader indices and I wonder if there's a lot more left in the tank. After ETSY's earnings went off in a strong way, we'll see if names like this have even more life post-COVID
US30 POSSIBLE "SELL/SHORT" AND/OR "BUY/LONG" PLEASE READ!!!!Alright folks, just bare with me on this analysis as I think we are at such a pivotal point in the current state of our markets and economy. So lets begin, this idea at the moment will be posted as neutral.
From a Technicals standpoint, I am a trader that follows some ICT methods, along with Wyckoff and others work and combined it into my own Strategy. I play price as almost as if it is hunting for a play.
So on the Higher time frames I'm Recognizing:
SELLING SCENARIO:
FOLLOW BIG RED ARROW FOR SELLER SCENARIO
- An ICT SELL Model
- Price Broke Structure and is Retesting a Bearish Order blocl
- Reversal Candle on the weekly
- Every time Price Breaks a Higher high it is followed by severe distribution (A sign institutions are selling)
- We are also at the equilibrium of our last weeks range
IF PRICE SELLS/ Rejects on the 1-4hr TIME FRAME AT OUR BEARISH ORDER BLOCK:
- I will be looking to short to the imbalance between 34485 and 34285
BUYER SCENARIO:
FOLLOW BIG GREEN ARROW FOR BUYER SCENARIO
- Price Retested a very strong liquidity zone
- The Weekly close occurred above the area of liquidity Acting as a strong Base of demand that will move price bullish
- Really strong demand for price at a 34840 levels
- Price is still creating higher highs on the daily time frame
IF PRICE BUYS AT OUR Point of interest:
- I will be looking for the price to test this block as breaker block for buy entry to 35364
As always a look into fundamentals is very crucial while trading in confluence with your technicals:
Lets look at some previous weeks news/ Macro Economics price fluctuations:
- FED announced the tapering of bonds
- Gold has dropped over 1000 points (giving signs of deflationary period in our economy)
- COVID DELTA Variant is back, cases are rising
- High inflation in grocery prices and Gas
- Deflation occurring in some commodities
- Infrastructure Bill Passed
- Consumer spending reports show a decrease in consumer spending
- Retail sales down
All in all,its a must to keep everything in mind MY Personal "OPINION" is the markets will sell this week HOWEVER, MY BIAS WILL STAY NEUTRAL. AS HUNTERS, we might want 17 pointer but sometimes you get 12 pointer or baby deer. So As always stay blessed happy trading week Follow for more in depth analysis!!
Murtzaa Out
Retail vs Smart Money ExamplesIn this example, we will look into the parallel channel formed on AUDUSD.
How Retail View the Breakout:
Price broke and re-tested the breakout trendline
Price should now continue bearish after showing signs of rejection
How Smart Money View the Breakout:
Price broke out of the retail trendline, liquidity has now been formed in their stop loss region
Once this area is wiped, we could consider sells from the order block that created it.
$CPRI: Continues to stun the marketWith another massive earnings beat, the market continues to find value in this name that was getting beaten up long before COVID. Should be interesting to see if CPRI can continue to impress into holiday season and beyond.
Q2 2021 Highlights
Revenue increased 178%, with better than anticipated results across all three luxury houses
Adjusted gross margin expanded 90 basis points versus prior year
Adjusted operating margin of 20.8%
Adjusted earnings per share of $1.42
Raised full year adjusted earnings per share outlook to $4.50
SPY overlay China's 2015 retail boom-bust - In 2015 China had a retail boom-bust 🔥
- It did not take long for retail to find out who
was going to hold that bag 💰
- Covid, tech, and monetary policy in the US have conspired
to create another retail frenzy ⛈
- I attempt to overlay 2015's fundamentals, technicals, and psychology
to the current scenario 🏹
- Just a little observation and thought-experiment 💚
- Have fun out there!
someone is going to find that top 😬
DON'T get wedgied! Peak excitement on Friday - as retail traders pumped various markets with billions in cash. This was alongside institutional traders who had been bailing out.
Well, retail won a significant limb of this, from the bottom edge of what now looks like an ascending broadening wedge following a major bullish drive. Biden echoed the FED's mantra on transitory inflation in the last few days. That seemed to be a signal for retail traders on the apps to dive in.
Ascending broadening wedges after long bull drives north, are usually a signal of weakness. Just to be clear (and read my disclaimer below), this does not mean that the market will crash now. Price could move significantly up and whipsaw the top of the wedge before heading for the moon! 🌛
This wedge formation creates probabilities. Probabilities exist in minds. The probability estimate based on this snapshot (right now), is for a significant correction. This is not advice! This is opinion - a very different thing to advice.
How probabilities work : If 'you' estimate there is a 51% chance of a correction, that leaves a 49% chance there will be no correction. A lot of novice traders forget about the lesser probability, which does not favour their mindset.
There are other silent probabilities adding up in the background (DYOR): 90 year economic cycle, coinciding with 20 and 10 year cycles - and we're not out of the woods with a major pandemic. We are at year 11+. Some say 'cycles mean nothing'. Everybody is entitled to their own belief. I think these are dangerous times to be throwing money into the market going long.
If you are about to short this position, you have to have money that you can afford to lose. Read that again. If you can't lose money, stop trading - instantly!
Alternative reasoned perspectives are most welcome.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.