ROKU- Bearish Divergence gives guidance LONGROKU sold off after okay not great earnings- obviously a large number of market participants
took their money off the table and moved it elsewhere. There was a typical or excessive price
run-up in the pre-earnings period. This chart set in a 15-minute time frame as well as 15
minute time frame on the RSI laid onto the main chart shows bullish divergence which
otherwise might be subtle. It is the key to the trade entry. It is saying get on the train before
it leaves the station. Chasing the train is a futile endeavor fraught with failure and
frustration. ( Yes, the hot tip is boldfaced for emphasis) Price is sideways at this time. The
relative volume indicator shows a huge 4X surge in volumes at the consolidated bottom verifying
it as such. This is Wychoff's theory in action for sure.
I am now part of that volume. I am an avid bottom buyer like many others. I take great
pains to analyse for the bottom, unlike some others who run on gut or sentiment.
I hope you find this analysis helpful. If you do, please give me a thumbs up. Once you have,
feel free to ask as to the specifics of my trading plan now implimented.
Earnings
Bending Trends Can Warn of Institutional RotationThe Daily chart of NASDAQ:PANW shows a short term bend in the trend which is common when Giant Buy Side Institutions are in quiet rotation mode to lower inventory, attempting not to disturb price.
Also, Volume Oscillators and Money Flow indicate selling hidden mostly in price that is being carefully controlled.
The stock reports today. This doesn't mean that HFTs have this information nor does it mean that HFTs won't gap it up. It means IF you are holding this stock for a swing trade, risk has increased for a possible run or gap down.
SMCI - Breakout of Rectangle On The CardsSMCI has formed a 5 month consolidation rectangle and is about to break out.
This setup is similar to Nvidia one which we had a couple of weeks ago.
SMCI just raised their Q2 forecast this morning.
Semiconductor sector is very strong at the moment.
Pure momentum play here.
Initial target is at 450.
NASDAQ-100 and QQQ facing correction?We have been seeing a massive rally led by tech since last 2023 continuing in 2024. Personally I was expecting a major pullback in the first weeks of 2024 but it was just a very small one.
Earnings continue to be decent, but in many sectors is getting disappointing and we have to remember that the tech heavy ETF and the index is basically NVIDIA, and some other semiconductor hype based on AI and the potential for transformation.
Technical data points to another small pullback but Wednesday-post market(NVIDIA earnings) will determine how deep this pullback is, based on investor sentiment on the current semiconductor industry and AI prospects of impact.
ROKU falls after an earnings beat dissapointmentROKU on the 30 minute chart had a sell-off after earnings which were okay not great. Traders
reacted. The question is whether it was an overreaction. I think it was. I am looking for a slow
recovery over a week or more to at least the standard retracement level which I will call 98 as
drawn by the tool. further upside targets are 101 and 104 based on VWAP bandlines.
Buying on the discount is sometimes an excellent tool to reduce risk and use the reversion to
the mean to best advantage and seize an overreaction in the market.
Toast Plans To lay Off 10% of its Workforce, As Growth SlowsToast, ( NYSE:TOST ) maker of restaurant management software, stated on Thursday it will lay off 550 employees, about 10% of its workforce. The company also reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street’s expectations.
Several Tech companies have instituted layoffs in 2024. On Wednesday Cisco ( NASDAQ:CSCO ) said it would eliminate 4,000 jobs as sales declined and clients became even more cautious about spending.
Toast’s ( NYSE:TOST ) shares were initially up as much as 16%.88 after hours but then gave back much of the gains.
According to the recently published report, the company's earnings per share were a loss of 7 cents per share, which is better than the expected loss of 11 cents per share. The revenue for the quarter was $1.04 billion, which exceeded expectations of $1.02 billion. Toast ( NYSE:TOST ), as per the statement released by the company, saw an increase of nearly 35% in revenue as compared to the previous year. Its net loss of $36 million in the current quarter is an improvement from the $99 million loss in the same quarter last year. The company has allocated $250 million for share buybacks.
The pandemic led many restaurants to adopt Toast’s mobile ordering and payment tools, which helped double the company’s revenue. Shares debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in 2021, amid that uptick. Demand has sublimed since then, down from 37% in the third quarter and about 45% in the second quarter.
Toast ( NYSE:TOST ) faces increasing competition from the likes of Block, Fiserv, and Shift4, Bank of America analysts wrote in a December note as they reduced their rating on the stock from buy to neutral.
Toast’s ( NYSE:TOST ) new layoffs should result in $45 million to $55 million in charges, mostly in the first quarter, and $100 million in annualized savings.
Those cuts come weeks after Aman Narang, Toast’s co-founder and COO, replaced Chris Comparato as CEO. Under Comparato’s leadership last summer, Toast ( NYSE:TOST ) began to charged a fee of 99 cents for each online order that totaled more than $10. Consumers and restaurant owners objected, prompting urging the company to eliminate the surcharge.
ROKU runs to Earnings ROKU on the 15- minute chart with an overlaid volume profile and anchored VWAP bands
demonstrates a high volume area breakout on Tuesday last week having passed through the
entire high volume area bottom to top the previous 24 hours. On those days it had a burst of
volume. The volume is constant and consistent. Earnings are in two days. More volume
spiking has been seen in the last trading session. I see this as an excellent long trade setup
as a swing trade for the rest of the week into next if the earnings are better than they were
last November
Controlled Large Lot Selling Pattern: TMUSTelecom Industry stocks hit the wall of Market Saturation some time ago. NASDAQ:TMUS has a pattern that indicates a controlled selling mode of larger lots before the earnings report. There has been more volume to the downside and money is flowing out of the stock while the price action develops a narrow sideways range. Risk for a breakout to the downside is high.
DASH 3d Chart, Q1 2024 Doordash appears breaking out of it's ascending cylinder after bottoming in 2022 and accumulating for the better part of 2023.
If they have good earnings outcome and can get past the 130-135 zone, it has room to run. If they shit the bed with their earnings, can't imagine this holds the breakout. Regardless, leading up to their reporting, this is one of the better looking charts.
SHOP solid growth and strength into earningsOn the 4H chart SHOP has been trending up since last fall when it fell through the high volume
area and then rebounded crossing through it and rebounding. Earnings have been solid beats
for over a year. Volume is persistent and steady while the relative strength rising from a bounce
down to the 50 level to begin this month. This is a solid earnings play but also could be
a long term investment but not until there is another dip or minor correction to set up for
a low risk entry. Last earnings gave SHOP about $10-12 in a quick price pop. I am looking
for something in the range of $6-8 higher as a conservative target
CHEF rises in price and volume for earnings LONGChef's Warehouse reports in two days. This is a slow grind it out type of stock. In the past week
volume spiking is seen on the indicator with the blue bars pointing out aberrancies in volume
otherwise called spikes. On the volume profile, CHEF fell down and out of the high volume
area of the profile for much of February but on Thursday the 8th re-entered it and pass through
it and breaking above it all in the same day. This is a rather explosive reversal pattern.
Price has maintain itself above the area in the past two trading session. The past week saw
more than a 6% rise for CHEF. This trade is best suited for investors, patient swing traders
or those trading options. This is not an intraday stock trade.
PSN Engineering Consultants /Design LONGParsons reports in 2 days. This multinational engineering firm thrives on infrastructure projects
like highways and bridges, airport runways and other engineering issues such as cybersecurity
walware attacks, election interference, DOS wars, dams, irrigation projects, 100-year storm
assessments and FEMA related work. I am very familiar with this multinational firm that
someday will be consulting on the rebuilt of Ukraine and the Gaza Strip. It is a stable
company with a bright and prosperous future.
The chart shows investors reacting to the impending earnings report and taking positions.
Volatility was extreme last Thursday one week before earnings. I will be adding to my long
position in PSN. This is a slow and steady wins the race type of stock best suited to long term
investors or traders with options strategies.
HUBS - running since the big earnings beat in NovemberHUBS on the 3 0 minute chart has been trending up since the last earnings. It is above the high
volume area of the volume profile. Basically it is so trong it is not attracting any short sellers.
Waves of new buyers buy from the float or from those who are collecting their profits and
making room for others. I got a share as a test with the dip the first week of January and
another today. I see this as intermediate term swing trade. If earnings is a huge beat again,
I will get a third share when I see a dip or fade and then another before the next earnings.
Options can be played for those with large risk capital on the sidelines. Seemingly, although
HUBS does not get headlines a great gain is a reasonable potential.
Doge bullish journey to the Moon + the watch link!Following the announcement of the launch of Doge to the Moon, the bulls have dominated the market and the supply ranges have been greatly reduced, and the price of Doge as well as the price of Bitcoin are getting higher, and it is expected that this trend will continue until the landing of Doge on the Moon's surface. Dogecoin is supposed to launch to the Moon from the launchpad in next several hours, by SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket.
To watch the launch live, click on the following link:
www.youtube.com
or this:
www.youtube.com
Shopify Q4 revenue tops Street estimatesShopify ( NYSE:SHOP ), the Canadian e-commerce giant, recently reported its fourth-quarter earnings, causing a stir in the market. While the company surpassed expectations in terms of earnings and revenue, its guidance for the upcoming quarter fell short, triggering a significant dip in its stock price. Let's delve deeper into what these results mean for investors and Shopify's future trajectory.
Strong Q4 Performance:
Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) fourth-quarter results showcased impressive performance, with earnings per share reaching 34 cents adjusted, surpassing analysts' expectations by 3 cents. Revenue also exceeded forecasts, totaling $2.14 billion, fueled by a remarkable increase in gross merchandise volume (GMV) to $75.1 billion, a 23% rise from the previous year. This robust performance was primarily attributed to the surge in products sold on its platform, highlighting Shopify's continued relevance and dominance in the e-commerce landscape.
Guidance Woes:
Despite the stellar fourth-quarter results, investors were disheartened by Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) conservative guidance for the first quarter. The company's projection of a "low-twenties percentage rate" revenue growth, coupled with a free cash flow margin expected to be in the high single digits, fell short of market expectations. Notably, Shopify's forecasted adjusted operating income of $178 million starkly contrasts with consensus estimates of $382 million, painting a picture of cautious optimism amidst market uncertainties.
Market Response:
The market response to Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) guidance was swift and unforgiving. The company's shares tumbled approximately 10% in early trading following the earnings release, reflecting investor concerns over the gap between projected and anticipated performance metrics. Analysts from Wedbush emphasized Shopify's subdued outlook, highlighting the disparity between projected operating income and consensus estimates. This sentiment was echoed by the broader market, with many investors adopting a wait-and-see approach amidst lingering uncertainty.
Future Prospects:
Despite the short-term market turbulence, Shopify ( NYSE:SHOP ) remains well-positioned to capitalize on the burgeoning e-commerce landscape. The company's relentless focus on innovation and expanding its product offerings underscores its long-term growth potential. Additionally, Shopify's strategic divestiture of its logistics business signifies a commitment to streamlining operations and maximizing shareholder value. As the global economy continues to recover from the impacts of the pandemic, Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) resilient business model and unwavering commitment to customer-centricity are poised to drive sustainable growth in the years to come.
Conclusion:
Shopify's fourth-quarter earnings report elicited mixed reactions from investors, with strong performance overshadowed by conservative guidance for the upcoming quarter. While short-term market fluctuations may unsettle some stakeholders, Shopify's robust fundamentals and strategic initiatives signal a promising future ahead. As the e-commerce landscape evolves, Shopify ( NYSE:SHOP ) remains a stalwart player, poised to capitalize on emerging opportunities and deliver long-term value to shareholders.
PLCE crash and flush on pre-emptive warning from executives LONGPLCE as shown on the 30 minute time frame had a "waterfall" event when a bad news catalyst
hit the wires. Executives announced earnings issues one month out from the report due about
March 14th. Maybe is real and may not. The are no filings available to show any insider sell-
off unlike what is going on at General Dynamics at its all-time high. Could those executives
push traders to bail on the stock, force it to crater and then buy even more at the bottom or
have friends and family help them if they are well informed ? Who knows ? Does the CEO of
TSLA have a plan to help share prices drop so when his new compensation plan is set up he
gets even more shares and price rises to make his unrealized losses magically disappear.
Is there manipulation in the market ? Is this a case of it ?
Anyway enough said. PLCE is in early reversal and recovery. It has crossed the moving averages
on the chart and there is a massive volume of buyers scooping from the bottom in the
closing Friday afternoon. I was one of them. My shares and options are few. ( compared with
the CEO/COO/CFO guys at Children's Place.- they typically buy 100,000 shares at a pop - after
all they have the confidence of already knowing what is going on inside) I typically want to
see 2-3X relative volume to put on a big position. This is 4X. Seems the risk is low compared
with a 60% upside back to price levels before the news. Price has already recovered partially.
My stock trade is 5% above break even after less than a day and now has a 3% trail stop so
I don't need to pay attention to it. The call options targeting $19 for March 16th are up 16%
in the first day. I will sell to close a day or two before earnings to hedge my suppositions.
If earnings are as bad as these executives say. The call options will plummet.
My alternative is to keep the call options running but hedge them with a single put option
below ITM for a strike OTM expiring the same day setting up a strangle to take much of the risk
way. In that case, the call options would still fall with a bad earnings miss but the put option
will provide insurance buffering the loss. It remains to be seen how this plays out and I will
check for SEC filings at intervals. For now, I will chase the relative volume because it is higher
than the typical for similar scenarios. Best of luck to any traders who take this trade.
Waste Management WM uptrending since prior earningsWM is impending earnings in the next trading day. It is a demonstration that there is money to
be made in the efficient collection of garbage and recyclables On the daily chart, since the
earnings beat, it has trended up through a high volume area breakout and a breakout across
series of VWAP lines and bands anchored in the intermediate past. The volumes have been
consistent. The RSI indicator shows both the lower and higher time frame lines above the 50
level since those earnings. I see this as an add to one of my investment portfolios as it is a
relatively slow mover with dividends. On traders with long duration swing trades will pay
attention to it. An options call trade in the lead up into earnings will mature on February 16th
This is a blue chip stock; it does not get headlines it just works hard month in and month out.
In my opinion, nothing is wrong with that.
Lattice Semiconductor: Navigating Through Cyclical HeadwindsLattice Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:LSCC ) continues to thrive despite near-term cyclical industry headwinds. The company's recently reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results not only showcase impressive financial performance but also underscore its strategic vision and unwavering commitment to innovation.
Lattice Semiconductor ( NASDAQ:LSCC ) reported fourth-quarter revenue of $170.6 million, marking a resilient performance in the face of industry challenges. Despite a slight year-over-year decrease in quarterly revenue, the company achieved a remarkable 12% increase in full-year revenue, reaching $737.2 million. Such consistent growth reflects Lattice's strong market positioning and customer momentum.
One of the standout aspects of Lattice Semiconductor's ( NASDAQ:LSCC ) performance is its impressive margin expansion. The company reported a GAAP gross margin of 69.8% for the full year 2023, representing a 130 basis points expansion compared to the previous year. Similarly, its non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 70.4%, reflecting operational efficiency and effective cost management strategies. Such robust margin expansion speaks volumes about Lattice's ability to optimize its operations and drive profitability even in challenging market conditions.
Moreover, Lattice Semiconductor's ( NASDAQ:LSCC ) focus on shareholder value creation is evident through its expanded share repurchase program. With authorization to repurchase up to an additional $250 million of its outstanding common stock through the end of December 2024, the company reaffirms its commitment to delivering long-term value to its shareholders. The consistent repurchase of shares over thirteen consecutive quarters underscores management's confidence in the company's future prospects and financial strength.
Innovation lies at the heart of Lattice Semiconductor's ( NASDAQ:LSCC ) success story. The company's inaugural Developers Conference attracted over 5,000 registrations and featured keynote addresses from industry giants such as BMW, Meta, and NVIDIA. Furthermore, its collaboration with NVIDIA resulted in the introduction of a new reference design platform aimed at accelerating the development of high-performance edge AI applications. Such partnerships and product innovations underscore Lattice's ability to stay at the forefront of technological advancements and cater to evolving market demands.
Looking ahead, Lattice Semiconductor ( NASDAQ:LSCC ) remains optimistic about its future prospects despite the prevailing industry uncertainties. The company expects first-quarter revenue to range between $130 million and $150 million, demonstrating confidence in its ability to navigate through short-term challenges. Additionally, with a projected gross margin percentage of 69% plus or minus 1% on a non-GAAP basis, Lattice continues to prioritize operational efficiency and profitability.
In conclusion, Lattice Semiconductor's ( NASDAQ:LSCC ) fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results highlight its resilience, innovation, and commitment to driving long-term shareholder value. Despite facing cyclical industry headwinds, the company's robust financial performance, margin expansion, and strategic initiatives position it well for sustained growth and success in the dynamic semiconductor market. As Lattice Semiconductor ( NASDAQ:LSCC ) continues to push the boundaries of innovation and expand its market presence, investors can remain confident in its ability to deliver value in the years to come.