Earnings
Uninspiring Technical Patterns Ahead of NFLX EarningsLike many others, NASDAQ:NFLX has shifted to a wide sideways trend ahead of its earnings report today after the close. There is no pre-earnings run here. Current volume and price trend are not patterns that inspire a good earnings surprise.
HFTs are always watching news ahead of open on high-profile stocks to get ahead of retail market orders. A gap is likely at tomorrow's open.
MMM long play3M had a decent earningsreport, however investors were not happy with the lack luster revnue forecast for 2024. Largest selloff since 2019. This opens up a great potential play. Short term fib retracement to .618, Has potential to keep moving to the downside. However some strong support at 93. And a bottom support of 85. Now for the upside potential. Looking at the current trend, it has a upper resistance from 160's for 2024 long term. Sizing in with potential stops at ~93
Tesla reporting this week! $TSLATesla will report as soon as this Wednesday, Jan. 24, after the market close. Personally, I don't plan any trading activity here before the report. But at the moment the stock is in a technically interesting zone.
I see a double technical pattern here - Inv. Head and Shoulders. Based on the structure of the daily chart, the price is now in a potential right shoulder (RSh) zone, which could be a good area to start a position.
Meanwhile, the entire daily structure is a right shoulder (WkRsh) for the weekly pattern, which gives the current price zone more strength.
Of course, the report could break the technical pattern, but I will be watching and waiting for one of my triggers to occur.
Stocks at New All-Time Highs Ahead of Earnings: CATThis Dow component attempted a new all-time high and failed. However, it has ample support from the prior sideways trend after the previous all-time high. NYSE:CAT has been over-speculated as it moved out of its bottom low.
The company reports end of January. Watching to see how the stock performs in the next week or so should indicate whether it will be stuck range bound for another couple of quarters or if it will have the fundamentals to support a new high. For now, it has more of the appearance of a range bound sideways pattern developing.
Caterpillar Inc. did well during the years of huge real estate and city development in China. Unfortunately, the great industrial revolution of China is long gone, their population in decline due to fewer births and more deaths reducing their billions. Their consumer-based economy has slammed into Market Saturation as their population continues to age at a faster pace than any nation on earth. CAT needs to find another source for its machinery.
UEC an energy penny stock pops out of ascending channel LONGUEC is a uranium company somewhat independent of the oil, solar and lithium stocks that
dominate the energy sector. Nuclear is touted as green and not contributory to climate change
with no carbon impact. It pollution or radioactivity is self-contained and isolated with heavy
regulatory safeguards All that said, a few days ago analysts at Eight Capital raised the status
of UEC to "strong buy" with a price target of $13 or about 75% above current valuation. Such
a high upside is uncommon in the energy sector.
The 4H chart shows price broke out from an ascending channel of several months
duration with a corresponding relative volume of 4x the running mean. The price action
is that of a high tight flag patter n invoking the moderately strong probability of more
bullish momentum after a consolidation is completed.
I see this as a great long swing trade with earnings coming in two months or call options
OTM targeting a strike price of $10 for the mid-March expiration. Given the stock price at
present such call options would have about $40 premium per contract.
Lastly, the ETFs URA and URNM appear to track the price action of UEC fairly well. If a trader
prefers diversification or risk moderation of ETFs these two are reasonable alternatives.
Uranium trades do not have geopolitical risk to consider as much as oil and gas yet another
reason to give this a further look.
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HD: Finally Patterning Out Post-PandemicNYSE:HD benefited greatly from the pandemic lockdown and the numerous stimulus checks that over-stimulated all nations' economies.
The stock has now moved above its trading range and has sustained, aka held onto, those gains.
This patterns out the excessive revenues and earnings that were inevitably unsustainable for all of the companies that benefited from the brief surge of revenues due to the "over-stimulus checks."
This is the Weekly Chart to show that the Year over Year comparatives that harmed HD for a couple of years is now patterned out.
$LRCX approaching gap fill area and is a week away from earningsNASDAQ:LRCX 's recent close above the 9 EMA signals bullish potential. Holding steadily above the $763 level could pivot the stock towards $768, aligning with a crucial gap fill area and setting sights on $778. The positive momentum in related stocks like NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , and NASDAQ:SMCI may act as a catalyst for NASDAQ:LRCX , especially given its critical role in memory chip production. Watch for possible significant movements around the January 24 earnings, as these developments could impact its trajectory.
Symmetrical Triangle for a Long positionUSDCAD opened with Lower high and gave a big bearish candle on first day of the week, I was looking at different time frames and saw a symmetrical pattern on the one minute time frame (Using 15 minute to publish, analysis on 1 minute time frame), though I do not recommend using the one minute time frame at the opening but it was a sure bullish move that was coming.
Took the trade with a small stop loss and TP at the size of the length of the triangle base, just above the slope of lower high and made a small profit to start the week.
Where is USD moving in the coming week, what are the different factors that will effect its move?
comment and share your experience.!!
Cheers
Apollo Hospitals - Management Quality and Economic MoatNSE:APOLLOHOSP
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd, a prominent healthcare service provider in India, has shown significant management quality and a strong economic moat.
Management Quality:
Strategic Growth and Diversification: Apollo Hospitals has focused on expanding its services, including elective surgeries and diagnostics. This diversification and expansion into various healthcare segments highlight effective strategic planning.
Financial Performance: The company has demonstrated robust financial growth over the years. Notably, there has been a substantial increase in net sales, EBITDA, and PAT (Profit After Tax), indicating a healthy financial status. This growth trajectory reflects strong operational capabilities and a successful business model.
Operational Efficiency: The efficient operation of Apollo Hospitals is evident from the significant YoY growth in its Hospital segment and the Pharmacy business. The company has also entered into a 10-year commercial agreement with Amazon India, which is a strategic move to enhance its reach and operational efficiency.
Economic Moat:
Market Position and Brand Recognition: Apollo Hospitals is well-recognized in the healthcare industry, which contributes to its competitive advantage and customer loyalty.
Integrated Business Model: The company's integrated business model, covering a wide range of services from primary to tertiary health requirements, strengthens its position in the healthcare sector.
Operational Network: Apollo Hospitals' extensive operational network fuels its business growth, enabling it to serve a broad customer base effectively.
Strengths and Weaknesses:
Strengths:
Strong operational performance and network.
Growth initiatives that indicate potential for future expansion and development.
Weaknesses:
A noted decrease in working capital, which could impact business growth.
Challenges such as the dearth of healthcare professionals and stringent industry regulations.
In summary, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd exhibits strong management quality, marked by effective strategic planning, robust financial performance, and efficient operations. The company's economic moat is underpinned by its market position, integrated business model, and extensive operational network. While there are strengths in its operational performance and growth initiatives, the company must address issues related to working capital and navigate the challenges posed by regulatory environments and workforce management
NVDA at the CES Ahead of Earnings Next MonthNASDAQ:NVDA moved up on the excitement around AI at the Consumer Electronics Show. We can see that Professional Traders were anticipating a breakout.
The stock should be able to begin some pre-earnings runs soon, as long as revenues and earnings continue to improve.
Volume Oscillators and Money Flow Indicators have been improving as Derivative Developers continued to increase inventory.
Controlled Sideways Trends Ahead of EarningsThe Giant Banks and Credit Card companies benefit the most from the Federal Reserve Board's overnight interest rate hikes. As the FRB increases its lending rate, it allows big banks and credit companies to increase their interest rates to consumers, small businesses, etc. That usually means higher revenues.
NYSE:V is in a sideways trend that is not as consistent as would be ideal ahead of its earnings report in about 3 weeks. However, HFTs are aware of the tendency for credit card companies to prosper during high interest-rate markets.
Study the candlestick patterns: Note the quick reversal back down after a higher price level was reached. Note the rebound the same day when price dropped out of the lows of this sideways trend. There is control in this pattern which is typical of Professional trading activity.
TRUWORTHS INT (TRU)TRUWORTHS - The current price is now testing the lower trend line within a broadening wedge pattern. Anticipating potential support at the trend line; however, a break below it might signal a significant decline, offering a potential short play.
It's worth noting that in the 50 days leading up to the past six earnings release dates, there has been an average upward movement of over 20% following a period of downward price movement. Considering the current testing of the lower trend line, it could serve as support for another upward trend.
UnitedHealth Pushes Highs Before EarningsUnitedHealth has consolidated for almost two years, and now some investors may expect its longer-term uptrend to continue.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the basing pattern over the course of 2023. Notice the lower lows in the first half, followed by higher lows in the second half. That may suggest buyers have regained control since the summer.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA in September. That can also reflect bullishness over the longer term.
Third, UNH recently bounced at its peak from July. Did old resistance become new support?
Fourth, the health insurer has remained below its record weekly close of $551.24. But this week could bring a catalyst for a potential breakout because earnings are due on Friday morning. (Notice how the stock jumped following its last two quarterly reports.)
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#MINT. French Net Net stock with big upside.October's Earnings saw #MINT fall into a negative Enterprise Value with the business now valued less than it's cash and assets on a per share basis.
The business is growing with a positive ROE and ROIC and has a huge runway in front of it.
It's unusual to find such a business in net net territory and I like that insiders continue to buy shares in the business.
Buying at around the 3.5 Euro price is a bet I'm willing to take.
Over-speculated Patterns Heading Into Earnings SeasonNYSE:JPM is the last Bank that has been able to hold onto its Dow 30 component status. It is running up on a combination of buybacks and ETF development for Dow 30 index components.
The stock is over-speculated heading into the earnings season. Volume Oscillators show the extreme pattern clearly. So even minimal weakness in the earnings report could cause an HFT trigger. It might surprise either way.
Some of its growth in 2023 was due to the regional bank debacle when JPM chose certain small banks to target for a silent hostile takeover.
Descending triangle Smart Money Bluff Many ideas claim through a pattern that a descending triangle will bring a big BTC fall.
I have no doubt this is a smart money bluff. If I had to pick from a pattern and price action, I’d go with price action, it weighs more.
Learning patterns is one of the basic elementary teachings, we learn in trading. Which is good I’m not against it, but I would rather use it for guidance and never for buying or selling.
It’s smart money who create these patterns for us to see. As general traders buy, smart money knows how much in quantities to sell in order to create a pattern. Buying and selling accomplish a pattern. Therefore, I would rather not rest assured on a pattern.
This is a 4 hour chart and I’ve added the one day chart bullish green trend. Both point in different directions; these are hidden pivots, which are calculated.
Bullish up reversal, wick to wick confirms a reversal with a hoping breakout trend.
So I’m going to trust price action then to lean on a descending triangle.
Remember, this chart can take place right away or may take its time. It doesn’t mean it’s gonna follow the trend lines. The way the price lines point out, it may zigzag up and down, but will reach its destination.
Zigzag because many traders will sell for losses. Therefore, we will have some dips due to panic but will eventually recover plus BTC will have much more value. While traders sell, smart money will buy certain quantities in order to help recover BTC.
Remember, it doesn’t benefit smart money if they dip BTC very low because they know many traders will jump in the trade to even say many are on standby.
I’ve expressed myself with facts so you can rest assured things are still on board. We may have some delays but will make its way up sooner than we think.
Bajaj Finserv Ltd. - Management Quality and Economic MoatNSE:BAJAJFINSV
Bajaj Finserv Ltd, a leading Indian financial services company, has showcased notable management quality and developed a significant economic moat. The company operates through its controlling stakes in various businesses, including Bajaj Finance Ltd. (BFL), a large and profitable NBFC.
Management Quality:
Strategic Growth and Diversification: Bajaj Finserv has strategically diversified its business into lending, asset management, wealth management, and insurance. This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations in any single sector.
Financial Performance: The company has demonstrated strong financial performance over the years. Its operating income grew significantly from ₹6,022 crore in FY2014 to ₹82,071 crore in FY2023. The adjusted EPS (Earnings Per Share) also showed a healthy growth trajectory, increasing from ₹9.7 in FY2014 to ₹46.5 in FY2023.
Capital Adequacy and Asset Management: Bajaj Finserv maintains robust capital adequacy, ensuring a solid financial foundation and ability to invest in growth opportunities. Its subsidiary, BFL, has an AUM (Assets Under Management) increase of 29% to ₹197,452 crore in FY2022.
Economic Moat:
Market Position and Sectoral Importance: Bajaj Finserv, through its subsidiaries, has become a vital part of India's financial sector. BFL alone constitutes a significant portion of the NBFC sector's assets.
Customer Base and Reach: With a franchise of 57.6 million customers and an expansive distribution network, the company has a deep penetration in the market. This wide reach is crucial for sustaining long-term growth and maintaining a competitive edge.
Digital Transformation: The company’s focus on digital transformation and omnichannel strategies enhances customer experience and operational efficiency. This positions Bajaj Finserv favorably in an increasingly digital financial landscape.
Strengths and Weaknesses:
Strengths:
Strong growth in business volume anticipated by analysts.
High profitability with outstanding net margins.
Frequent positive revisions of sales forecasts and strong analyst recommendations.
Agile and innovative response to external events like demonetization, GST implementation, and the pandemic.
Weaknesses:
High valuations in earnings multiples and balance sheet size.
Limited generosity in shareholder compensation.
Conclusion
In summary, Bajaj Finserv Ltd's management quality is characterized by its strategic diversification, robust financial performance, and effective capital management. Its economic moat is reinforced by its significant market position, vast customer base, and digital transformation initiatives. The company's strengths in maintaining high growth and profitability are counterbalanced by its high valuation levels and a conservative approach to shareholder compensation.