LEARN THE MOST IMPORTANT FOREX FUNDAMENTALS 📰
Even though I am a pure technician and I rely only on technical analysis when I trade, we can not deny the fact that fundamentals are the main driver of the financial markets.
In this post, we will discuss the most important fundamentals that affect forex market.
You can check coming fundamental news on TradingView in the economic calendar.
The calendar button on the right side will display the coming news.
Click "only high importance" button and the system will display only the most important news.
Here are the most important fundamental releases that you should pay close attention to:
📍Unemployment rate.
Unemployment rate reflects the percentage of people without a job in a selected country or region.
Rising unemployment rate usually signifies an unhealthy state of the economy and negatively affects the currency strength.
📍Housing prices.
Housing prices reflect people's demand for housing. Rising rate reflects a healthy state of the economy, strengthening purchasing power of the individuals and their confidence in the future.
Growing demand for housing is considered to be one of the most important drivers in the economy.
📍Inflation.
Inflation reflects the purchasing power of a currency.
It is usually measured by evaluation of the price of the selected basket of goods or services over some period.
High inflation is usually the primary indicator of the weakness of the currency and the unhealthy state of the economy.
📍Monetary policy.
Monetary policy is the actions of central banks related to money supply in the economy.
There are two main levers: interests rates and bank reserve requirements.
Higher interest rates suppress the economy, making the currency stronger. Lower interests rates increase the money supply, making the economy grow but devaluing the national currency.
📍Political discourse.
Political discourse is the social, economical and geopolitical policies of the national government.
Political ideology determines the set of priorities for the ruling party that directly impacts the state of the economy.
📍Payrolls and earnings.
Payroll reports reflect the dynamic of the creation of new jobs by the economy, while average earnings show the increase or decrease of the earnings of the individuals.
Growing earnings and payrolls positively affect the value of a national currency and signify the expansion of the economy.
Pay closes attention to these fundamentals and monitor how the market reacts to that data.
What fundamentals do you consider to be the most important?
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Earnings
CVNA- consolidation after the earnings gap higher LONGCVA on the 30-minute chart shows a high tight flag pattern after the big report of profit
on an annual report. Inflation is affecting auto stocks and recession is increasing the
number of used care purchases while inflation hangs in there. URLs for both a description
of the pattern and the news are embedded in the drawing. The RSI indicator shows a quick
move of the faster RSI line over the slower RSI line. The pattern is typically said to forecast
bullish continuation out of the consolidation. I will get shares at fair value in the consolidation
and follow price for signs of that continuation. Another observation of the consolidation
is the price getting above the third upper VWAP bandline then settling down onto the
support of the first upper line. I look to target 78 from an entry of 68 for a 15-18% upside
with risk constrained by the earnings report and current relative trading volume.
SNOW: Positive Technical Patterns Ahead of EarningsNYSE:SNOW is completing a long-term bottom formation that is only visible on a weekly chart. The company was highly touted at IPO but has struggled since then.
Candlestick patterns indicate pro traders in the mix right now. The stock reports earnings Feb 28th, next week. Candlestick patterns and Pro trader influence imply a possible good report this time around.
tv 18 : strong weekly chartThe stock as can be seen i s in a strong uptrend
stock is alreay above key averages and is trading above multiweek highs
the counter completed the retracement and now its likely to show continuation towards 77-80 mark followed by 87-89 areas on the upside
the supports are placed at 60-58 area and only below this stock may turn bearish from current strong bullish trend
Lucid Motors Faces Turbulence as Demand SlumpsLucid Motors ( NASDAQ:LCID ), backed by Saudi Arabia's investments, finds itself grappling with challenges as it slashes prices amid a slowdown in demand. The company's recent revenue report has raised eyebrows, indicating a bumpy road ahead.
Amidst the swirling currents of the electric vehicle market, Lucid Motors ( NASDAQ:LCID ) stands as a beacon of ambition and innovation. However, recent developments suggest that even the most promising ventures can face turbulent waters. The Saudi Arabia-backed company, known for its cutting-edge Air sedans, has been forced to make tough decisions as demand softens and revenue falls short of expectations.
Last week, Lucid Motors ( NASDAQ:LCID ) made headlines as it announced a significant price reduction for its Air sedans. This move was a strategic response to dwindling demand in an industry experiencing a noticeable slowdown. Despite initial excitement surrounding Lucid's ( NASDAQ:LCID ) sleek and high-performance vehicles, consumers seem to be hesitating amidst concerns over cost and market saturation.
The decision to slash prices underscores the delicate balance Lucid Motors ( NASDAQ:LCID ) must strike between maintaining profitability and stimulating demand. In an increasingly competitive landscape, where legacy automakers and new startups alike vie for market share, pricing strategies can make or break a company's prospects. For Lucid ( NASDAQ:LCID ), the challenge lies in navigating this terrain while staying true to its vision of delivering premium electric vehicles that redefine the driving experience.
However, pricing adjustments are just one piece of the puzzle. Lucid Motors ( NASDAQ:LCID ) recently released its fourth-quarter revenue report, and the numbers paint a sobering picture. Revenue came in at $157.2 million, falling short of analysts' expectations, which averaged $179.9 million according to LSEG data. This revenue miss underscores the broader challenges facing the company as it grapples with a slowdown in deliveries and consumer reluctance to commit amidst high costs.
The discrepancy between projected and actual revenue highlights the unpredictable nature of the electric vehicle market. While Lucid Motors has made significant strides in technology and design, translating these advancements into sustained profitability remains a formidable task. The company's ability to ramp up production, streamline operations, and capture market share will be crucial in determining its long-term success.
Despite these challenges, there are reasons for cautious optimism. Lucid Motors ( NASDAQ:LCID ) boasts a talented team of engineers and designers, a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility, and a strong financial backing from Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund. Additionally, the company's recent entry into the public markets via a SPAC merger has provided it with the necessary capital to fuel its growth ambitions.
Looking ahead, Lucid Motors ( NASDAQ:LCID ) must focus on executing its strategic vision while remaining agile in response to market dynamics. This will require a delicate balance of innovation, cost management, and customer engagement. As the electric vehicle market continues to evolve, Lucid Motors ( NASDAQ:LCID ) has the potential to emerge as a leading player. However, the road ahead is fraught with challenges, and success will ultimately hinge on its ability to navigate the currents of change with skill and determination.
Analyzing Goosehead's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 ResultsGoosehead Insurance, Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:GSHD ) stands out as a beacon of growth and innovation. The company's recently announced fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results underscore its remarkable trajectory and strategic prowess. Let's delve into the highlights of Goosehead's ( NASDAQ:GSHD ) performance and its promising outlook for 2024.
Strong Performance Amidst Growth Initiatives:
Goosehead's ( NASDAQ:GSHD ) fourth-quarter 2023 results paint a picture of resilience and expansion. With total revenues reaching $63.0 million, reflecting a robust 10% increase year-over-year, the company demonstrates its ability to capture market opportunities effectively. Core revenues, a key metric excluding certain elements, soared to $56.9 million, marking a parallel 10% growth over the previous year.
Profitability Soars:
One of the most striking aspects of Goosehead's ( NASDAQ:GSHD ) performance is its impressive profitability surge. Net income for the fourth quarter surged to $5.4 million, a remarkable improvement from $2.6 million in the same period last year. This surge translates to a staggering 650% increase in earnings per share (EPS), reaching $0.15 per share, and a 155% increase in adjusted EPS, standing at $0.28 per share. Such remarkable profitability growth is a testament to Goosehead's ( NASDAQ:GSHD ) efficient operational strategies and unwavering commitment to delivering value to shareholders.
Strategic Initiatives Pay Off:
The successful implementation of changes aimed at enhancing productivity and increasing earnings power has yielded tangible results. Notably, the reorganization of corporate sales leadership in late 2022 and the consolidation of franchise leadership with corporate in Q4 2023 have driven significant productivity gains. With a keen focus on accelerating new business production growth in 2024, particularly within its franchise network, Goosehead ( NASDAQ:GSHD ) is poised for even greater success in the years ahead.
Outlook for 2024:
Looking ahead, Goosehead's ( NASDAQ:GSHD ) guidance for the full year 2024 reflects a bullish sentiment and a robust growth trajectory. Total written premiums are expected to range between $3.70 billion and $3.85 billion, representing organic growth of 25% to 30%. Similarly, total revenues are anticipated to range between $310 million and $320 million, reflecting organic growth of 19% to 22%. With an expected expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year 2024, Goosehead ( NASDAQ:GSHD ) remains steadfast in its pursuit of sustainable growth and industry leadership.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, Goosehead ( NASDAQ:GSHD ) Insurance, Inc.'s stellar performance in the fourth quarter and full year 2023 underscores its resilience, strategic vision, and commitment to excellence. With a track record of strong growth and a promising outlook for 2024, Goosehead ( NASDAQ:GSHD ) continues to soar high in the competitive landscape of personal lines insurance. As the company continues to execute its strategic initiatives and capitalize on emerging opportunities, investors can remain confident in Goosehead's ( NASDAQ:GSHD ) ability to deliver long-term value and maintain its position as a leader in the industry.
Moderna's Surprising Profit Signals Post-Pandemic PivotModerna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ), the pioneering vaccine maker, reported a surprise fourth-quarter profit, sending ripples of optimism through the market. Bolstered by unexpected revenue and strategic cost-cutting measures, the company's resilience amid shifting tides in the pharmaceutical landscape has drawn both attention and applause.
Unveiling the Numbers:
Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) fourth-quarter profit stood at a commendable $217 million, or 55 cents a share, defying analyst expectations of a substantial loss. This unexpected triumph was fueled by a combination of factors, including unforeseen deferred revenue and a strategic overhaul in manufacturing operations. The company's ability to navigate challenges and adapt swiftly underscores its agility and forward-thinking approach.
Navigating the COVID-19 Landscape:
While Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine continues to be its flagship product, generating substantial revenue, the company is strategically diversifying its portfolio. Despite a decline in COVID vaccine sales from 2022 to 2023, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) remains steadfast in its commitment to innovation. The imminent approval decision for its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) shot marks a significant milestone in this diversification strategy, offering a glimpse into the company's post-pandemic roadmap.
Looking Beyond COVID:
Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) ambitious roadmap extends far beyond the realm of COVID-19. With plans to launch its RSV shot in key markets and a robust pipeline of experimental shots targeting influenza, cancer, and cytomegalovirus, the company is poised for a transformative journey. Despite concerns over efficacy declines compared to rival offerings, Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) unwavering focus on research and development signals a bold leap into uncharted territories.
International Endeavors:
Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) participation in the EU Health Emergency and Response Authority’s tendering procedure underscores its commitment to global health initiatives. By prioritizing key international markets and aligning with strategic partners, the company aims to broaden its reach and impact. The forthcoming decision on the EU tender is poised to shape the company's trajectory in the global arena, setting the stage for future collaborations and expansions.
Charting the Course Ahead:
As Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) reaffirms its 2024 forecast amidst shifting market dynamics, the company remains steadfast in its pursuit of excellence. With a projected $4 billion in sales and a focus on operational execution, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) is poised to navigate challenges and seize opportunities in the years ahead.
Conclusion:
Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) unexpected profit surge and strategic roadmap offer a compelling narrative of resilience and innovation in a rapidly evolving landscape. With eyes set on new horizons and a steadfast resolve, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) emerges as a beacon of hope in the post-pandemic world.
GRPN on a one month breakout LONGThis is to follow up my previous idea on Groupon. On the 2H chart, price is in a one month
sustained breakout from the volume profile and into the upper VWAP band lines both anchored
for end of 2023. The faster green RSI line crossed the 50 about the same time and basically
has not looked down. The slower RSI line has slowly risen from 55 to 65. This is in the consumer
discretionary sector and hot necessarily hinged to technology stocks. I see this as rock-solid
as it gets. I will load more shares now and also load more ona dip There was a big earnings
miss in November and then Goldman Sachs raised its target from 5 to 7.5 which seems like
a big adjustment after an earnings miss. I suppose GS knows their stuff.
SolarEdge to Reduce 16% of Workforce SolarEdge ( NASDAQ:SEDG ), a prominent player in the renewable energy sector, finds itself grappling with significant challenges as it navigates through turbulent market conditions. Despite its innovative solutions and prior successes, the company's recent performance has been overshadowed by a slew of setbacks, including a stark downturn in revenues and a daunting inventory backlog.
Earnings Report
The company unveiled a bleak outlook for the first quarter of 2024. With revenues projected to range between $175 million to $215 million, substantially lower than analysts' expectations of $406 million, SolarEdge's ( NASDAQ:SEDG ) stock took a nosedive, plummeting as much as 23% in extended trading. This downward spiral comes on the heels of a challenging period marked by persistently high-interest rates and sluggish demand in the residential solar market.
CEO Zvi Lando attributed the company's woes to a confluence of factors, including adverse market dynamics and an inventory glut resulting from a sudden downturn in demand. SolarEdge ( NASDAQ:SEDG ), known for its expertise in manufacturing inverters crucial for converting solar power into electricity, found itself saddled with excess inventory amidst weakening sales. Lando highlighted the struggles faced in both European and U.S. markets, with the latter expected to remain subdued until interest rates witness a significant decline.
To address the looming inventory backlog and mitigate the impact of dwindling revenues, SolarEdge ( NASDAQ:SEDG ) announced sweeping measures aimed at cost reduction and operational streamlining. This includes a substantial workforce reduction of 16%, closure of select manufacturing sites, and strategic exits from certain business segments. While these measures are aimed at bolstering the company's resilience in the face of adversity, the road ahead remains fraught with uncertainties.
Looking ahead, CEO Zvi Lando expressed cautious optimism regarding the potential rebound of the European residential solar market in the first quarter, followed by gradual improvement thereafter. However, the timeline for clearing the inventory backlog extends well into 2024, underscoring the prolonged challenges confronting SolarEdge ( NASDAQ:SEDG ). Amidst intensifying competition and a rapidly evolving regulatory landscape, the company finds itself at a critical juncture, requiring swift and decisive actions to regain its footing in the market.
Conclusion:
SolarEdge's ( NASDAQ:SEDG ) recent travails serve as a stark reminder of the inherent volatility and challenges pervasive in the renewable energy sector. As the company charts its course through choppy waters, stakeholders remain vigilant, awaiting signs of a potential turnaround. The path ahead may be fraught with obstacles, but with prudent management and strategic initiatives, SolarEdge ( NASDAQ:SEDG ) retains the potential to emerge stronger and more resilient in the long run.
ROKU- Bearish Divergence gives guidance LONGROKU sold off after okay not great earnings- obviously a large number of market participants
took their money off the table and moved it elsewhere. There was a typical or excessive price
run-up in the pre-earnings period. This chart set in a 15-minute time frame as well as 15
minute time frame on the RSI laid onto the main chart shows bullish divergence which
otherwise might be subtle. It is the key to the trade entry. It is saying get on the train before
it leaves the station. Chasing the train is a futile endeavor fraught with failure and
frustration. ( Yes, the hot tip is boldfaced for emphasis) Price is sideways at this time. The
relative volume indicator shows a huge 4X surge in volumes at the consolidated bottom verifying
it as such. This is Wychoff's theory in action for sure.
I am now part of that volume. I am an avid bottom buyer like many others. I take great
pains to analyse for the bottom, unlike some others who run on gut or sentiment.
I hope you find this analysis helpful. If you do, please give me a thumbs up. Once you have,
feel free to ask as to the specifics of my trading plan now implimented.
Bending Trends Can Warn of Institutional RotationThe Daily chart of NASDAQ:PANW shows a short term bend in the trend which is common when Giant Buy Side Institutions are in quiet rotation mode to lower inventory, attempting not to disturb price.
Also, Volume Oscillators and Money Flow indicate selling hidden mostly in price that is being carefully controlled.
The stock reports today. This doesn't mean that HFTs have this information nor does it mean that HFTs won't gap it up. It means IF you are holding this stock for a swing trade, risk has increased for a possible run or gap down.
SMCI - Breakout of Rectangle On The CardsSMCI has formed a 5 month consolidation rectangle and is about to break out.
This setup is similar to Nvidia one which we had a couple of weeks ago.
SMCI just raised their Q2 forecast this morning.
Semiconductor sector is very strong at the moment.
Pure momentum play here.
Initial target is at 450.
NASDAQ-100 and QQQ facing correction?We have been seeing a massive rally led by tech since last 2023 continuing in 2024. Personally I was expecting a major pullback in the first weeks of 2024 but it was just a very small one.
Earnings continue to be decent, but in many sectors is getting disappointing and we have to remember that the tech heavy ETF and the index is basically NVIDIA, and some other semiconductor hype based on AI and the potential for transformation.
Technical data points to another small pullback but Wednesday-post market(NVIDIA earnings) will determine how deep this pullback is, based on investor sentiment on the current semiconductor industry and AI prospects of impact.
ROKU falls after an earnings beat dissapointmentROKU on the 30 minute chart had a sell-off after earnings which were okay not great. Traders
reacted. The question is whether it was an overreaction. I think it was. I am looking for a slow
recovery over a week or more to at least the standard retracement level which I will call 98 as
drawn by the tool. further upside targets are 101 and 104 based on VWAP bandlines.
Buying on the discount is sometimes an excellent tool to reduce risk and use the reversion to
the mean to best advantage and seize an overreaction in the market.
Toast Plans To lay Off 10% of its Workforce, As Growth SlowsToast, ( NYSE:TOST ) maker of restaurant management software, stated on Thursday it will lay off 550 employees, about 10% of its workforce. The company also reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street’s expectations.
Several Tech companies have instituted layoffs in 2024. On Wednesday Cisco ( NASDAQ:CSCO ) said it would eliminate 4,000 jobs as sales declined and clients became even more cautious about spending.
Toast’s ( NYSE:TOST ) shares were initially up as much as 16%.88 after hours but then gave back much of the gains.
According to the recently published report, the company's earnings per share were a loss of 7 cents per share, which is better than the expected loss of 11 cents per share. The revenue for the quarter was $1.04 billion, which exceeded expectations of $1.02 billion. Toast ( NYSE:TOST ), as per the statement released by the company, saw an increase of nearly 35% in revenue as compared to the previous year. Its net loss of $36 million in the current quarter is an improvement from the $99 million loss in the same quarter last year. The company has allocated $250 million for share buybacks.
The pandemic led many restaurants to adopt Toast’s mobile ordering and payment tools, which helped double the company’s revenue. Shares debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in 2021, amid that uptick. Demand has sublimed since then, down from 37% in the third quarter and about 45% in the second quarter.
Toast ( NYSE:TOST ) faces increasing competition from the likes of Block, Fiserv, and Shift4, Bank of America analysts wrote in a December note as they reduced their rating on the stock from buy to neutral.
Toast’s ( NYSE:TOST ) new layoffs should result in $45 million to $55 million in charges, mostly in the first quarter, and $100 million in annualized savings.
Those cuts come weeks after Aman Narang, Toast’s co-founder and COO, replaced Chris Comparato as CEO. Under Comparato’s leadership last summer, Toast ( NYSE:TOST ) began to charged a fee of 99 cents for each online order that totaled more than $10. Consumers and restaurant owners objected, prompting urging the company to eliminate the surcharge.
ROKU runs to Earnings ROKU on the 15- minute chart with an overlaid volume profile and anchored VWAP bands
demonstrates a high volume area breakout on Tuesday last week having passed through the
entire high volume area bottom to top the previous 24 hours. On those days it had a burst of
volume. The volume is constant and consistent. Earnings are in two days. More volume
spiking has been seen in the last trading session. I see this as an excellent long trade setup
as a swing trade for the rest of the week into next if the earnings are better than they were
last November
Controlled Large Lot Selling Pattern: TMUSTelecom Industry stocks hit the wall of Market Saturation some time ago. NASDAQ:TMUS has a pattern that indicates a controlled selling mode of larger lots before the earnings report. There has been more volume to the downside and money is flowing out of the stock while the price action develops a narrow sideways range. Risk for a breakout to the downside is high.
DASH 3d Chart, Q1 2024 Doordash appears breaking out of it's ascending cylinder after bottoming in 2022 and accumulating for the better part of 2023.
If they have good earnings outcome and can get past the 130-135 zone, it has room to run. If they shit the bed with their earnings, can't imagine this holds the breakout. Regardless, leading up to their reporting, this is one of the better looking charts.