Earnings
SHOP solid growth and strength into earningsOn the 4H chart SHOP has been trending up since last fall when it fell through the high volume
area and then rebounded crossing through it and rebounding. Earnings have been solid beats
for over a year. Volume is persistent and steady while the relative strength rising from a bounce
down to the 50 level to begin this month. This is a solid earnings play but also could be
a long term investment but not until there is another dip or minor correction to set up for
a low risk entry. Last earnings gave SHOP about $10-12 in a quick price pop. I am looking
for something in the range of $6-8 higher as a conservative target
CHEF rises in price and volume for earnings LONGChef's Warehouse reports in two days. This is a slow grind it out type of stock. In the past week
volume spiking is seen on the indicator with the blue bars pointing out aberrancies in volume
otherwise called spikes. On the volume profile, CHEF fell down and out of the high volume
area of the profile for much of February but on Thursday the 8th re-entered it and pass through
it and breaking above it all in the same day. This is a rather explosive reversal pattern.
Price has maintain itself above the area in the past two trading session. The past week saw
more than a 6% rise for CHEF. This trade is best suited for investors, patient swing traders
or those trading options. This is not an intraday stock trade.
PSN Engineering Consultants /Design LONGParsons reports in 2 days. This multinational engineering firm thrives on infrastructure projects
like highways and bridges, airport runways and other engineering issues such as cybersecurity
walware attacks, election interference, DOS wars, dams, irrigation projects, 100-year storm
assessments and FEMA related work. I am very familiar with this multinational firm that
someday will be consulting on the rebuilt of Ukraine and the Gaza Strip. It is a stable
company with a bright and prosperous future.
The chart shows investors reacting to the impending earnings report and taking positions.
Volatility was extreme last Thursday one week before earnings. I will be adding to my long
position in PSN. This is a slow and steady wins the race type of stock best suited to long term
investors or traders with options strategies.
HUBS - running since the big earnings beat in NovemberHUBS on the 3 0 minute chart has been trending up since the last earnings. It is above the high
volume area of the volume profile. Basically it is so trong it is not attracting any short sellers.
Waves of new buyers buy from the float or from those who are collecting their profits and
making room for others. I got a share as a test with the dip the first week of January and
another today. I see this as intermediate term swing trade. If earnings is a huge beat again,
I will get a third share when I see a dip or fade and then another before the next earnings.
Options can be played for those with large risk capital on the sidelines. Seemingly, although
HUBS does not get headlines a great gain is a reasonable potential.
Doge bullish journey to the Moon + the watch link!Following the announcement of the launch of Doge to the Moon, the bulls have dominated the market and the supply ranges have been greatly reduced, and the price of Doge as well as the price of Bitcoin are getting higher, and it is expected that this trend will continue until the landing of Doge on the Moon's surface. Dogecoin is supposed to launch to the Moon from the launchpad in next several hours, by SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket.
To watch the launch live, click on the following link:
www.youtube.com
or this:
www.youtube.com
BABA's ReturnWith price having pull-backed to extreme lows, it seems BABA has the chance to make its nearby future reversal. It's important to watch BABA as it nears $62, having a strong historical resistance to that point. Hoping retirement money comes early for us all.
Shopify Q4 revenue tops Street estimatesShopify ( NYSE:SHOP ), the Canadian e-commerce giant, recently reported its fourth-quarter earnings, causing a stir in the market. While the company surpassed expectations in terms of earnings and revenue, its guidance for the upcoming quarter fell short, triggering a significant dip in its stock price. Let's delve deeper into what these results mean for investors and Shopify's future trajectory.
Strong Q4 Performance:
Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) fourth-quarter results showcased impressive performance, with earnings per share reaching 34 cents adjusted, surpassing analysts' expectations by 3 cents. Revenue also exceeded forecasts, totaling $2.14 billion, fueled by a remarkable increase in gross merchandise volume (GMV) to $75.1 billion, a 23% rise from the previous year. This robust performance was primarily attributed to the surge in products sold on its platform, highlighting Shopify's continued relevance and dominance in the e-commerce landscape.
Guidance Woes:
Despite the stellar fourth-quarter results, investors were disheartened by Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) conservative guidance for the first quarter. The company's projection of a "low-twenties percentage rate" revenue growth, coupled with a free cash flow margin expected to be in the high single digits, fell short of market expectations. Notably, Shopify's forecasted adjusted operating income of $178 million starkly contrasts with consensus estimates of $382 million, painting a picture of cautious optimism amidst market uncertainties.
Market Response:
The market response to Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) guidance was swift and unforgiving. The company's shares tumbled approximately 10% in early trading following the earnings release, reflecting investor concerns over the gap between projected and anticipated performance metrics. Analysts from Wedbush emphasized Shopify's subdued outlook, highlighting the disparity between projected operating income and consensus estimates. This sentiment was echoed by the broader market, with many investors adopting a wait-and-see approach amidst lingering uncertainty.
Future Prospects:
Despite the short-term market turbulence, Shopify ( NYSE:SHOP ) remains well-positioned to capitalize on the burgeoning e-commerce landscape. The company's relentless focus on innovation and expanding its product offerings underscores its long-term growth potential. Additionally, Shopify's strategic divestiture of its logistics business signifies a commitment to streamlining operations and maximizing shareholder value. As the global economy continues to recover from the impacts of the pandemic, Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) resilient business model and unwavering commitment to customer-centricity are poised to drive sustainable growth in the years to come.
Conclusion:
Shopify's fourth-quarter earnings report elicited mixed reactions from investors, with strong performance overshadowed by conservative guidance for the upcoming quarter. While short-term market fluctuations may unsettle some stakeholders, Shopify's robust fundamentals and strategic initiatives signal a promising future ahead. As the e-commerce landscape evolves, Shopify ( NYSE:SHOP ) remains a stalwart player, poised to capitalize on emerging opportunities and deliver long-term value to shareholders.
PLCE crash and flush on pre-emptive warning from executives LONGPLCE as shown on the 30 minute time frame had a "waterfall" event when a bad news catalyst
hit the wires. Executives announced earnings issues one month out from the report due about
March 14th. Maybe is real and may not. The are no filings available to show any insider sell-
off unlike what is going on at General Dynamics at its all-time high. Could those executives
push traders to bail on the stock, force it to crater and then buy even more at the bottom or
have friends and family help them if they are well informed ? Who knows ? Does the CEO of
TSLA have a plan to help share prices drop so when his new compensation plan is set up he
gets even more shares and price rises to make his unrealized losses magically disappear.
Is there manipulation in the market ? Is this a case of it ?
Anyway enough said. PLCE is in early reversal and recovery. It has crossed the moving averages
on the chart and there is a massive volume of buyers scooping from the bottom in the
closing Friday afternoon. I was one of them. My shares and options are few. ( compared with
the CEO/COO/CFO guys at Children's Place.- they typically buy 100,000 shares at a pop - after
all they have the confidence of already knowing what is going on inside) I typically want to
see 2-3X relative volume to put on a big position. This is 4X. Seems the risk is low compared
with a 60% upside back to price levels before the news. Price has already recovered partially.
My stock trade is 5% above break even after less than a day and now has a 3% trail stop so
I don't need to pay attention to it. The call options targeting $19 for March 16th are up 16%
in the first day. I will sell to close a day or two before earnings to hedge my suppositions.
If earnings are as bad as these executives say. The call options will plummet.
My alternative is to keep the call options running but hedge them with a single put option
below ITM for a strike OTM expiring the same day setting up a strangle to take much of the risk
way. In that case, the call options would still fall with a bad earnings miss but the put option
will provide insurance buffering the loss. It remains to be seen how this plays out and I will
check for SEC filings at intervals. For now, I will chase the relative volume because it is higher
than the typical for similar scenarios. Best of luck to any traders who take this trade.
Waste Management WM uptrending since prior earningsWM is impending earnings in the next trading day. It is a demonstration that there is money to
be made in the efficient collection of garbage and recyclables On the daily chart, since the
earnings beat, it has trended up through a high volume area breakout and a breakout across
series of VWAP lines and bands anchored in the intermediate past. The volumes have been
consistent. The RSI indicator shows both the lower and higher time frame lines above the 50
level since those earnings. I see this as an add to one of my investment portfolios as it is a
relatively slow mover with dividends. On traders with long duration swing trades will pay
attention to it. An options call trade in the lead up into earnings will mature on February 16th
This is a blue chip stock; it does not get headlines it just works hard month in and month out.
In my opinion, nothing is wrong with that.
Lattice Semiconductor: Navigating Through Cyclical HeadwindsLattice Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:LSCC ) continues to thrive despite near-term cyclical industry headwinds. The company's recently reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results not only showcase impressive financial performance but also underscore its strategic vision and unwavering commitment to innovation.
Lattice Semiconductor ( NASDAQ:LSCC ) reported fourth-quarter revenue of $170.6 million, marking a resilient performance in the face of industry challenges. Despite a slight year-over-year decrease in quarterly revenue, the company achieved a remarkable 12% increase in full-year revenue, reaching $737.2 million. Such consistent growth reflects Lattice's strong market positioning and customer momentum.
One of the standout aspects of Lattice Semiconductor's ( NASDAQ:LSCC ) performance is its impressive margin expansion. The company reported a GAAP gross margin of 69.8% for the full year 2023, representing a 130 basis points expansion compared to the previous year. Similarly, its non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 70.4%, reflecting operational efficiency and effective cost management strategies. Such robust margin expansion speaks volumes about Lattice's ability to optimize its operations and drive profitability even in challenging market conditions.
Moreover, Lattice Semiconductor's ( NASDAQ:LSCC ) focus on shareholder value creation is evident through its expanded share repurchase program. With authorization to repurchase up to an additional $250 million of its outstanding common stock through the end of December 2024, the company reaffirms its commitment to delivering long-term value to its shareholders. The consistent repurchase of shares over thirteen consecutive quarters underscores management's confidence in the company's future prospects and financial strength.
Innovation lies at the heart of Lattice Semiconductor's ( NASDAQ:LSCC ) success story. The company's inaugural Developers Conference attracted over 5,000 registrations and featured keynote addresses from industry giants such as BMW, Meta, and NVIDIA. Furthermore, its collaboration with NVIDIA resulted in the introduction of a new reference design platform aimed at accelerating the development of high-performance edge AI applications. Such partnerships and product innovations underscore Lattice's ability to stay at the forefront of technological advancements and cater to evolving market demands.
Looking ahead, Lattice Semiconductor ( NASDAQ:LSCC ) remains optimistic about its future prospects despite the prevailing industry uncertainties. The company expects first-quarter revenue to range between $130 million and $150 million, demonstrating confidence in its ability to navigate through short-term challenges. Additionally, with a projected gross margin percentage of 69% plus or minus 1% on a non-GAAP basis, Lattice continues to prioritize operational efficiency and profitability.
In conclusion, Lattice Semiconductor's ( NASDAQ:LSCC ) fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results highlight its resilience, innovation, and commitment to driving long-term shareholder value. Despite facing cyclical industry headwinds, the company's robust financial performance, margin expansion, and strategic initiatives position it well for sustained growth and success in the dynamic semiconductor market. As Lattice Semiconductor ( NASDAQ:LSCC ) continues to push the boundaries of innovation and expand its market presence, investors can remain confident in its ability to deliver value in the years to come.
Groupon is pushing into earnings LONGGRPN on the 15 minute chart here with a volume profile overlaid hada high volume area
breakout from mid December to mid January but then retraced and broke down. It
consolidated for one week about the POC line gained some accumulation and then moved
back up again. It broke above the high volume area on January 25th then retested it with
a light touch on Feb 5th getting support in the rejection. The relative volume has picked
up consistent with Wychoff theory ( this is not a fakeout). I see this as an excellent long
trade through the upcomng earnings. The dual time frame RSI indicator can be useful to
gauge strength minute by minute and so pinpoint entries and exits.
HE - get it long before the sparks flyHE is obviously an underdog given what happened in Maui and the aftermath of the disaster.
It has that baggage and the ankle weights of litigation public perceptions, electical power
infrastructure and all the rest. Seemingly it is weathering the storm.
The 15 minute chart shows a ranging price action really going no where until last Friday when
volatility struck from a surge of volume. Price jumped out of the high volume area and volume
has persisted and so the high volume area widened. The fast RSI in green moved in quick
momentum as compared with the slower RSI in red. This is a golden cross of the lines showing
a surge of strength. I will take this long. The earnings announce BMO. The make the past
possible trade it must be done in the premarket and without a stop loss since my broker does
not offer them in the premarket. An options trade will be after earnings depending on what is
reported. This is a risky trade so the position will be small relative to buying power.
NFLX History Repeats ItselfNetflix here looking for a possible rebound in the upside after reporting strong earnings followed by a small consolidation. The previous power earnings gap resulted in huge positive gains, and now history shall repeat. My target range for the next few weeks is 600-620, and I wish you all the best.
INBS pumped on earnings crush= Watching for LONG maybeINBS crush earnings and went parabolic on an earnings beat. Basically, revenues fell but with
belt-tightening and good CEO actions it bled less cash than expected. The tourniquet is
working. The post-earnings pump was followed by a flush to the mid-Fib 0.5 support. Trader's
got their reward and called it a weekend before lunch. The chop index fell into the
consolidation zone and the MACD turned bearish. See the 5 minute chart image inserted to
the left. The RSI lines are about 50 maybe with a crossdown impending. I have this on watch
for a reversal up. Much will depend on general market strength on Monday. Biotechnology
is projected as a hot sector now. This stock was among the hottest of the day. Hoping for
a bullish continuation knowing that a trend down is likewise possible.
ZBH a medical device company falls on earnings beat LONGZBH is a big global medical device company. It is old school. Aluminum titanium polymers, plates screws wires. Hollywood stars are familiar as it makes the devices for leg lengthening surgery. ( shortening is easy, lengthening not so much) I am familiar because in the past I have served as a consultant for this company. It business is mainly orthopedic elective surgery in supporting orthopedic surgeons serving their patients spine straightening to braces for after a neck fracture.
Not a surprise but a lot of surgeries were put off during Covid. So much that the catching up is still ongoing. This is part of the reason why healthcare and the medical technology sectors are expected to be among the hottest of 2024.
So much for fundamentals, the technical analysis support for a long trade is commented on the chart. On it you can see the trend since the last earnings. ZBH reported Thursday, January 7th.
with an earnings beat and a dip in preparation for a possible rip. The lunch hour of Thursday's session would be the next best time while another time is when you find another dip after you
have read this.
Want to trade and hedge your trade? Just take a trade in SYK and let them have a race. Cut the underperformer and use the proceeds to get more of the other. It's a very simple plan.
Want a broad trade in medical technology? Take a look at XBI or leveraged LABU.
Risk for Correction as Earnings Season EndsChecking the Monthly DPO chart of NASDAQ:NDX , it is important to be prepared for the risk of a correction soon after earnings season ends OR as the final week or so of reports come in. Often, the weakest reports are toward the end as there are aging technologies among these.
Corrections are necessary for a long-term uptrend to sustain.
Notice that there is more room to move up to the previous cycle peak of 2021. This new cycle peak can go higher as corporations continue to increase their revenues and earnings this year.
Also note that the extreme angle of ascent of the trend in 1998-2000 is far more severe than what has formed so far in this new bull market.
POWL an earnings pop will it continue or dropPOWL destroyed analysts' estimates may more than it did the previous quarter.
Of special note, the mass index indicator rose above the threshold but has not yet triggered
a reversal signal. The next trading session may be a drop or a rest until next week.
Call options striking 100 for 15DTE did 300%. I contemplate taking put options striking $110
with the same expiration. Risky for sure but maybe highly rewarding.
SMA- earnings play- a beat with a drop for a pop LONGSMA reported today with about a 2% drop - while traders responded with a 8% drop. Everybody
especially auto mechanics love their stuff. So were they looking for more? It is hard to say.
Idea is on the chart. I am looking for a recovery in a reversion to the mean. It looks like
it's underway. For those familiar with volume profile analysis and trading the best buy short
was upon the drop out of the high volume area ( lower zagged blue line at 9:45 AM EST) and
the best exit was the transient cross over and above the Hull 35 moving average at 12:15.
This would have been a monster trade of about 600% if the strike 280 expiring 2/16 was taken
about 9:45 AM and closed at 12:!5 PM; the price of about $150 for the single contract would
have yielded $1300 and netted $1150 for those 2.5 hours for an hourly rate of over $400.
Enough said about the short, this idea is about the backside. The stock shares trade is what is
is. The options trade in my opinion only is a call contract striking $ 270 just under the 0.5 fib
retracement is currently priced at about $530. If price gets above $270 or even gets over the
$280 fib level line in the next week, the return again would be 300-600%. I am taking this call
options trade, I will enter on a pivot low of the day on the share price chart. I'll set a stop loss
of 20% meaning about $100 is at risk. 3X the premium is about $ 1600 so the reward to risk
is 16. Managing with TradingViews handy alerts on the stock chart for moving average
inflections and cross-overs as well as MACD line and signal intersections should take about
one hour of combined time in a week. I consider the potential gain to be
excellent for the anticipated expense of time.
CMG - it might be expensive but the value is there LONGCMG on the weekly chart has been uptrending for a year after being rangebound sideways for a
year. It has seen a volume spike and corresponding price action with the current earnings beat
Price rose 60% in the past year and 16% YTD. This is not linear and nor is it parabolic.
The MACD supports the bullish momentum observation in the price action while the RS indicator
shows good strength in both shorter and longer time frames. This is a blue chip megacap for
sure. While it is not technology like the MAg7, the food business is lucrative. the CEO in the
earnings call announced plans to expand to 7000 stores nationally. This is ambitious. Those who
are ambitious investors or traders and are well funded could consider adding some shares
or even a few options of CMG. I am going with a few options OTM at $3000 six months out.
I believe that I will be well rewarded for the risk taken especially given the expansion plans
and the historical track record here.
Earnings Beat and Epic Game Partnership Drive Disney Stock SurgeIn a strategic leap into the gaming universe, The Walt Disney Company ( NYSE:DIS ) has stunned investors and enthusiasts alike with its latest announcement of a staggering $1.5 billion investment in Epic Games, the mastermind behind the global sensation Fortnite. This landmark partnership promises to reshape the landscape of entertainment, ushering in a new era of collaboration between the realms of gaming and beloved Disney franchises.
The excitement reverberated through the markets as Disney ( NYSE:DIS ) shares soared by an impressive 7% in premarket trading following the release of its first-quarter earnings report. Despite revenue remaining steady year-on-year, the company surpassed earnings expectations with an impressive $1.22 per share, outperforming forecasts by a significant margin.
CEO Bob Iger's revelation of Disney's ( NYSE:DIS ) foray into gaming represents a bold step forward, marking the company's most significant investment in the sector to date. With this substantial stake in Epic Games, Disney aims to harness the immense popularity of Fortnite and leverage its vast array of intellectual property, spanning Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, and Avatar, to create captivating new gaming experiences.
The collaboration between Disney ( NYSE:DIS ) and Epic Games holds boundless potential, offering fans the opportunity to immerse themselves in a rich and expansive gaming universe teeming with beloved characters and iconic settings. From pulse-pounding adventures to imaginative worlds, the possibilities are limitless as two entertainment giants join forces to push the boundaries of interactive entertainment.
But Disney's ( NYSE:DIS ) ambitions extend far beyond the realm of gaming. The company's visionary roadmap includes the launch of an ESPN streaming service slated for 2025, further expanding its digital footprint and captivating sports enthusiasts worldwide. Additionally, Disney+ subscribers can look forward to an exclusive version of Taylor Swift's Eras Tour movie, adding yet another dimension to the platform's diverse content offering.
Despite challenges in its Parks business and a decline in linear television, Disney's ( NYSE:DIS ) steadfast commitment to innovation and strategic growth initiatives has garnered support from investors and analysts alike. Ben Barringer, a technology analyst at investment manager Quilter Cheviot, lauded Disney's stable revenue and effective cost management strategies, underscoring the company's resilience in navigating a rapidly evolving entertainment landscape.
Conclusion:
As Disney ( NYSE:DIS ) sets its sights on a future brimming with possibilities, the partnership with Epic Games serves as a testament to its unwavering dedication to captivating audiences across every conceivable platform. With creativity as its compass and innovation as its engine, Disney continues to redefine the boundaries of storytelling, leaving an indelible mark on generations to come.
COIN Completes First Post-IPO BottomAs the first of its kind, this young company has a bright future.
Weekly chart: NASDAQ:COIN has completed its first post-IPO bottom formation and is holding above the completion line despite some selling down in recent weeks.
The company reports Feb 15th. The fundamentals are most likely at or near the bottom completion level. The run up became over-speculated so a minor correction is underway that can dip into the completion level, but support from the bottom formation is strong with Dark Pool buy zone patterns.
Enphase Energy's Strategic Moves Signal a Brighter FutureEnphase Energy (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ENPH ) stands as a beacon of innovation and resilience. Despite facing headwinds in the form of inventory issues and shifting market dynamics, the solar inverter maker is charting a course towards a brighter future. We delve into Enphase's recent developments, strategic shifts, and the prospects that lie ahead.
Navigating Short-Term Challenges:
Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ENPH ) recently announced its anticipation of an improvement in demand in the near term, sparking a surge in its shares by nearly 13% in extended trading. The company acknowledges the hurdles it faced in Europe, with a significant sequential decrease in revenue in the fourth quarter due to inventory management issues. However, Enphase (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ENPH ) remains optimistic, citing early signs of recovery in Europe and the potential for a rebound in non-California states.
Adapting to Market Dynamics:
Solar firms, including Enphase, have encountered obstacles such as rising inventory levels in Europe and softening demand in the U.S., attributed in part to regulatory changes like the metering reform in California. Enphase's response to these challenges involves strategic adjustments, including reducing shipments to manage inventory levels and focusing on enhancing demand and margins for its batteries and micro-inverters throughout 2024.
CEO's Vision and Guidance:
Enphase's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ENPH ) Chief Executive, Badri Kothandaraman, paints a picture of cautious optimism, acknowledging the slowdown in demand while expressing confidence in the company's ability to navigate through it. Kothandaraman highlights the potential turnaround, citing early signs of recovery in Europe and the expected resilience of non-California states. Despite forecasting a seasonally down sell-through demand for the first quarter, Enphase (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ENPH ) sets its sights on a revenue range of $260 million to $300 million, indicating a proactive stance in managing expectations.
Analyst Expectations vs. Performance:
Enphase's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ENPH ) fourth-quarter revenue slightly fell short of analysts' expectations, standing at $302.6 million compared to the anticipated $327.9 million. The company's first-quarter revenue forecast also falls below analysts' estimates, but Enphase (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ENPH ) remains steadfast in its strategic direction, focusing on operational excellence and seizing opportunities for growth amidst challenges.
Conclusion:
Enphase Energy's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ENPH ) journey exemplifies the resilience and adaptability required to thrive in today's dynamic energy landscape. Despite short-term challenges, the company's strategic maneuvers, coupled with the vision of its leadership, signal a promising trajectory ahead. As Enphase (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ENPH ) navigates through the current headwinds, it emerges as a compelling player poised to capitalize on the opportunities that lie beyond. Investors and industry observers alike would do well to keep a keen eye on Enphase Energy as it continues to shape the future of renewable energy.
