Bull Flag or Gap Fill......!?!?!?Garmin popped after beating earnings both Top & Bottom, and has now a "Bull Flag Pennant". We also have a $4 gap created overnight after earnings! How should we play this setup❓❗️❓❗️
Earnings
WOOLWORTHS HOLDINGS (WHL)Trading Analysis for Woolworths on the JSE:
Woolworths (WHL) is set to announce their FY23 results on 30th August 2023, following a significant 35% rally since June 2023. However, Their recent trading update revealed that HEPS (Headline Earnings Per Share) fell below expectations, accompanied by negative concerns around load shedding.
Currently, the price is testing a supply area, raising the possibility of a double top formation. This pattern suggests potential downward movement in the stock.
Short Position:
Target 1 (T1): 71.00
Target 2 (T2): 64.50
Coinbase (COIN) Surges. Will it Surpass Expectations?Introduction:
The stock price of Coinbase (COIN), one of the biggest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world, is making waves today with a remarkable 7.3% surge in anticipation of a crucial earnings call scheduled for 17:30 GMT-4. This event has captured the attention of traders and investors, and as the world watches, the burning question is whether Coinbase can beat the high expectations set by the market.
Earnings Expectations:
Market analysts are projecting that Coinbase's Q3 earnings report will reveal revenue of approximately $653 million and earnings per share (EPS) of -0.54. These numbers are indicative of both the potential and the challenges that lie ahead for this cryptocurrency exchange giant.
Q3 Market Dynamics:
Q3, unlike the previous months of July and August, was a relatively quiet period for Coinbase, with the crypto markets experiencing subdued activity. However, September marked a significant turnaround, with volatility levels rising notably. This shift in market dynamics could have a substantial impact on Coinbase's financial performance for the quarter.
Custodian Role in ETFs:
One intriguing development for Coinbase is its role as the custodian for all the bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. This new responsibility presents exciting opportunities and potential growth for the American exchange. As the adoption of cryptocurrency ETFs continues to gain momentum, Coinbase stands to benefit significantly.
Market Conditions:
Furthermore, the broader stock market is also on an upswing today, with Nasdaq gaining 1.4%. Simultaneously, Bitcoin experienced a notable spike, briefly reaching $36,000 before encountering a slight dip. These positive market conditions might be contributing to Coinbase's impressive stock price performance.
Comparative Performance:
In the context of the past month, Coinbase's stock price has risen by a respectable 10%. However, this gain pales in comparison to Bitcoin's impressive 27% increase over the same period. This discrepancy raises questions about whether Coinbase can catch up with the soaring performance of the world's leading cryptocurrency.
Conclusion:
As the clock ticks down to the eagerly anticipated earnings call, all eyes are on Coinbase. The financial results unveiled during this event will provide insights into the cryptocurrency exchange's health and resilience in a rapidly evolving market. Whether Coinbase can outperform expectations or merely meet them, its current surge in stock price is indicative of the market's optimism regarding its potential to capitalize on the evolving crypto landscape. Investors and traders alike will be watching closely to see if Coinbase can deliver on these expectations and continue its journey as a major player in the cryptocurrency industry. The world of cryptocurrency awaits the verdict on Coinbase's Q3 performance with bated breath, aware of the pivotal role it plays in the crypto ecosystem.
Solid Small Caps for EarningsAnyone finding interesting setups in small caps this earnings season?
These often have more reliable patterns for swing trading. Since they are largely under the radar of the retail crowd, institutional patterns can be clearer.
NASDAQ:CERE is an example of a stock coming up in TechniTrader scans today. It has 88% institutional holdings. A compression pattern is developing. HFTs have been in it recently, possibly due to intermittent accumulation. The strengthening of the sideways action is particularly visible with the RSI indicator.
Dark Pool accumulation tends to cause controlled sideways patterns like this, a key ingredient for what we call Relational Technical Analysis at TechniTrader.
Because this has had a swing-style run out of the last compression pattern at a low in this longer trading range, a swing trade could be considered on the breakout, either above today's high or above the last resistance level for a more conservative entry. (Green lines on the chart) My target would be 31, but of course I'd be watching for exit signals or an extreme pattern to take profits early. Stop loss at the red line on the chart.
A more aggressive trader could look at an entry ahead of the close today if pro trader patterns emerge in the last 15 minutes with an exit shortly after the open if a run or gap up develops for an EOD to FOD trade.
Happy Trading!
Guest author: Mele Ainuu, Senior Technical Analyst, Student Support @ TechniTrader
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Next Swing: positive swing to resistance.
Next Wave: buy wave to the deviation.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Market Capitalization: 5.376B
Release Date: 11/01 BMO
Quarter: FQ3'23
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #5
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #8
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is positive.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢 Buy ~ If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪ Neutral ~ If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴 Sell ~ If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
☝️ P R O V I S I O N
The analysis presented is incomplete work thereby can't safely trade in the Market by itself.
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: positive swing to resistance.
Next Wave: buy wave to the deviation.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Market Capitalization: 56.055B
Release Date: 11/01 AMC
Quarter: FQ3'23
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #0
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #2
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is positive.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢 Buy ~ If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪ Neutral ~ If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴 Sell ~ If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
☝️ P R O V I S I O N
The analysis presented is incomplete work thereby can't safely trade in the Market by itself.
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: positive swing to resistance.
Next Wave: sell wave to the deviation.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Release Date: 11/01 AMC
Quarter: FQ3'23
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #3
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #6
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is positive.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢 Buy ~ If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪ Neutral ~ If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴 Sell ~ If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
☝️ P R O V I S I O N
The analysis presented is incomplete work thereby can't safely trade in the Market by itself.
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: positive swing to resistance.
Next Wave: buy wave to the deviation.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Release Date: 10/31 AMC
Quarter: FQ3'23
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #4
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #5
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is neutral.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢 Buy ~ If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪ Neutral ~ If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴 Sell ~ If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
☝️ P R O V I S I O N
The analysis presented is incomplete work thereby can't safely trade in the Market by itself.
MSTR Evening Star Poses Whipsaw Risk"Evening stars" are not as reliable as they used to be. They occur after heavy speculation and a steep angle of ascent. A few days ahead of earnings, NASDAQ:MSTR could not break through the resistance above.
The Gap up was HFT driven. This stock has a lot of retail interest at the moment, with every eye on AI. But the selloff from last quarter's reporting season is creating resistance on the daily scales. It is a very pricey stock for this market condition and the emotional state of most investors.
MSTR is likely to gap on earnings news as there are leaks out that it is going to be a blockbuster earnings report.
Potential Value Trap - Mattel ShortMattel’s management has exerted great efforts over the past year to pull off a turnaround story in the company’s performance. The company released its box office hit movie, Barbie, in 2023 and expects the hit to be the catalyst for the turnaround. Despite the impressive effort and resulting success of the Barbie movie, I retain a bearish view on the stock and see the potential for a Value-Trap trade.
The above-mentioned media effects combined with the presence of a large distribution schematic on the stock’s Weekly chart suggest large scale operates are poised, inducing public interest in the stock, thereby engineering liquidity for a big move. Our bearish stance expects a significant markdown of the stock’s price in light of decreasing sales and earnings expectation.
In the second quarter of 2023, sales fell 12% from last year. So far, Mattel has hung on to gains from the Barbie movie and is up 22% this year.
Pro Trader Patterns for Swing TradingThis important exchange has been doing very well with options and futures contract sales.
NASDAQ:CME had a classic pre-earnings run up fueled by professional traders swing trading, out of a platform support level.
The retracement was only a sympathy move with retail knee-jerk reactions due to the fear around the stock market at this time, not an indication of the company's earnings report or growth potential.
The stock is not at its all-time high level yet, so it can run further before slamming into strong resistance.
On the monthly chart, it has a Double Trough on DPO, which is a strong indication for the stock's long-term cycle.
IBM: A Risky Earnings TradeNYSE:IBM Reports after the market closes today. It is probably at or near its fundamental levels even if the report is weak.
The chart shows a strong support level as the stock price is at the neck of the bottom completion level.
IBM is in a long term trading range when viewed on a long term trend. The problem is a weak CEO who has failed at reinvention and a stock that is pricey for its growth potential.
However, it has more upside potential than downside. It would take a really negative report to create a strong run down. That is not likely.
PSHI is very low so less savvy investors own almost half the outstanding shares. This means trading the earnings report is riskier.
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: positive swing to resistance.
Next Wave: buy wave to the deviation.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Release Date: 10/25 AMC
Quarter: FQ3'23
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #4
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is negative.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #8
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is negative.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢 Buy ~ If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪ Neutral ~ If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴 Sell ~ If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
☝️ P R O V I S I O N
The analysis presented is incomplete work thereby can't safely trade in the Market by itself.
SHORTbitcoin should drop after january , just like four years ago, where i specified that bitcoin will drop and then rise.
Gold- Is it the right time to buy some?Gold has been the go-to hedge against inflation and uncertain economic/political/social situations. But has it always given good returns? Not necessarily. There have been times when gold has been in a range or even in a downtrend for more than a decade. Eventually it might rise, sure, but will you be willing to wait for so long? Of what use is the profit if you cannot enjoy it in your lifetime.
That said, if timed well, gold has also given phenomenal returns. So, in my opinion, it all comes down to finding the most probable time to buy and percentage of funds allocated, which should not and cannot be more than 25 to 30 percent, no matter what Robert Kiyosaki says. There is a lot to learn from him and a lot of what he says makes sense, but betting everything on Gold and Silver? Probably not.
GOOG Sympathy Move Ahead of Earnings TodayThe run down to Monday was a sympathy run. It doesn't mean that NASDAQ:GOOG is headed for a bad report. Rather, retail investors are selling ETFs or moving money out of stocks into safe havens, or other adjustments to portfolios and 401(k)s. The selling dug into the most recent weak support level.
However, NASDAQ:GOOGL has not sent out any advisor in recent weeks regarding its earnings report. Any company this size, and as a veteran company of the stock market, would warn if earnings were going to miss the retail-side analyst estimates. So this is a sympathy move merely because the retail-side selling is moving big-name companies down at this time.
If it has a great earnings report, which the previous runs suggest , then the HFTs may trigger a gap up at open tomorrow. Alphabet had improvement in its quarterly report last quarter. Yearly revenues have been up for 4 years but earnings are up and down as it invests hugely in AI.
TSLA - Before earning report this eveningThere is a 2 possibility in my opinion:
Green arrow : Go to 290 in a short term, if the EPS will be over 0.78$ - 0.80$ and strong financial results.
Red arrow : down to 214 in a short term, if the EPS will be down to 0.70$ and not a satisfying financial results.
Let's wait today's report then decide what to do .
This is not invesment sugesstion , just my ideas in my brain :)
Think Before You Short: AMZN EarningsTraders need to check weekly charts when considering selling short stocks at this time. Many times there are strong support levels close to the current sold down price action.
The weekly charts also provide more data for day and swing traders to determine the all important RUN GAIN POTENTIAL. This must be calculated before any trade to determine the Risk versus Profit Potential for that trade, regardless of whether the hold time is a few minutes or several days for swing trading.
For many stocks, the recent selling down is not due to weaker earnings expectations but due to an overall reaction to retail news regarding international conflicts, US government uncertainties and regional wars.
The key element for trading stocks short-term is to understand where support will kick in and halt a sell short trade. Understanding the functionality and the strength or weakness of a support level is crucial to attaining a high-profit trade.
It is also a factor if you are waiting on the Dark Pool Buy Zone levels for getting into the stock for a run up from support levels.
Below is a chart of AMZN, which reports earnings on Thursday this week after the market close.
It shows that support is strong near the current price level. This indicates that the Dark Pool Buy Zone is within that technical price range. Selling short is inherently higher risk as the support level is a long-term trend strong support.
Why is it so strong?
1. There is a several-week price range that held the stock up.
2. Highs are a support mechanism when the stock market is not in a long-term downtrend. ALL
traders should know that this is not a bear market. Indexes are in a Trading Range.
3. The length of the candles is significant and relevant to the strength of the support.
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: positive swing to resistance.
Next Wave: buy wave to the deviation.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Release Date: 10/24 BMO
Quarter: FQ3'23
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #5
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is negative.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #5
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is negative.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢BUY: If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪NEUTRAL: If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴SELL: If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: positive to resistance.
Next Wave: buy wave to the ceiling.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Release Date: 10/24 AMC
Quarter: FQ4'23
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #7
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #7
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is positive.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢BUY: If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪NEUTRAL: If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴SELL: If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: sideways/holders/neutral.
Next Swing: neutral swing of volatility.
Next Wave: buy wave to the ceiling.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Release Date: 10/24 AMC
Quarter: FQ1'24
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #4
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #5
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is positive.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢BUY: If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪NEUTRAL: If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴SELL: If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Next Swing: neutral swing of volatility.
Next Wave: buy wave to the ceiling.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Release Date: 10/24 AMC
Quarter: FQ3'23
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #3
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #5
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is positive.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢BUY: If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪BUY: If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will buy the surprise instead of investing in alternative securities.
🔴BUY: If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
$108 or $59 support. 10% or 50% more down until bottomENPH is facing headwinds from multiple directions.
After a few years of sky high valuations, it is being looked at with fundamentals. Current PE of 30, so we could reasonably fall to a PE of 20 if the broader market crashes or if the CleanTech bubble (continues to) pop.
Either 10% down from here ~$108 or 50% down from here ~$59 are plausible IMO.
I like what these guys do, but I'm going to be cautiously on this one.
