WOOF dropped after an earnings beat now setup REVERSALOPRA on the 30-minute chart dropped after an earnings beat as apparently a lot of traders
expected better. The volume profile shows the vast majority of the trading occurred in
the 5.05 to 5.25 range. This heavy accumulation should result in price movement in due
time per Wycoff. I believe that a long trade is setup for a Fibonacci retracement of the
drop into the middle levels and so 5.85 as shown by the indicator on the chart. The mass index
indicator reached the reversal zone and then triggered with a drop below it confirming
a probable reversal. The MACD is showing bullish divergence.
I will place a buy stop order above the POC line of the volume profile with a stop loss at 12.0
just below the POC line is a safe 10-13% trade which may take into the beginning of next
week. I will take call option contracts as well. If you want to know the details of those,
please leave a comment.
Earnings
S&P 500 Head & Shoulders on the DailyThe SPY (S&P 500 Index) resembles a quite clear Head & Shoulders Pattern which is generally bearish. The daily candle chart shows a right shoulder forming with a rejection from the $445 area. With this rejection and a continuation downwards, we could see a harder fall if this aligns with the left shoulder and follows the pattern.
The other main indices also follow a similar pattern formation and could follow with a market downturn. Watching that $445 level is key to see a confirmation retest and rejection downwards. Following the lower levels, some price targets would first be the neckline as shown on the chart posted. A break below the neckline could result in a fall of the S&P 500 and if following the complete Head & Shoulders we could be seeing a realistic price target of the $410-$420 area.
Other than technicals fundamentals are definitely quite alright for the market as of now. But maybe a little too alright in my opinion. We have seen a market melt up with interest rates still sky-high resulting in more risk-ON investing rather than investing in CD's or Treasuries offering up to 5.5%.
The Greed being shown in this market is definitely visible and is something to keep note of if we break the neckline. Fear & Panic Selling could most definitely occur in this type of situation especially considering the market rally we've seen this summer.
Seasonally the fall has been quite bearish for the markets overall, and as we head into September & October we could see a similar trend to the past, but nothing is sure.
Lastly, in September / October Student Loan Repayments are resuming which could suck out millions if not billions of dollars from the United States economy as young adults chip away at debt and sacrifice spending on goods & services. This will most definitely be a crucial effect on the economy and could send markets downwards.
Keep an eye out for this pattern to play out... Definitely something to watch as we move in to Fall!
Thanks
Pagseguro Set to Report: Analysts Eye $13 PT Amid Strong GrowthNYSE:PAGS Pagseguro reports post-bell. Analysts' PT ranges $9-$17, mean $13. ROE at 13%, EPS 10% with 7.5% YoY growth. Q1 revenue of $3.5B and net income of $369M, up 9% and 5% YoY, respectively. Weekly chart shows potential falling wedge / double bottom.
NVDA 500 - 540 still in play by 8/25They say the Trend is your friend until the end! This amazing trendline has another 2 days to go before Earnings on Wednesday 8/25 after hours.
Ibelieve if you have 2 positions currently to the upside, take profit before earnings and play one for fun.
NVDA will have to blow away earnings again to get us a massive boost to $600 which I still think is very possible! But if we fall we will fall to about 320 - 350 over time to fill the gap.
But who knows it may never happen! I am more bullish than bearish in this case because of massive FOMO in this stock but whether you are long or short remember to take profits and if you are playing earnings, play with money you can afford to lose.
GLTA!
NVDA ER: Back under $400Huge amount of buy side liquidity flooded into the market today. I think it has to go somewhere and being as we're revisiting the .78 level on our fibs, I really like downside here. AMD also formed equal highs earlier today (not shown) which makes me think there's a short opportunity tomorrow or Wednesday into the remainder of the week. Chips should be very interesting.
NVDA Earnings Outlook:High Premium, Potential Post-Earnings DropNASDAQ:NVDA trades at a premium, with a P/E ratio of 277, towering over the sector median P/E of 25.56 and the S&P 500's P/E of 24.50. Its EV/EBIT is also remarkably high at 207.38 against the sector median of 19.45, signaling significant market sentiment.
The options market's pricing in a potential $50 move,trading well above recommended levels 50-day EMA, suggesting that it might be overbought. While there may be a continued run-up leading to earnings, a post-earnings drop is anticipated. Target levels post-earnings could be $433, $419, and $400. Play the run-up but be cautious to sell the news.
ETON Biotech Big Earning Beat Pullback LONGETON jumped on a big earnings report a week ago. This small cap biotechology
company is making big money and traders responded. It has now experienced
a standard 0.5 Fib level retracement pullback and traders early in the jump
take profit. At this level new buyers have equilibrated with those selling their
shares and taking profit. The ZL MACD lines are ready to cross bearly under the
histogram whose negative/ red amplitude is reverting toward the zero line.
The lines of the dual time frame RS indicator have held above the 50 level.
In consideration of this healthy pullback and buying /selling pressure equilibrium
I will take a long trade looking for 15-20% upside considering also the uprising
fundamentals of the stock based on the big earnings beat.
$HIMS - Watch out belowNYSE:HIMS - the recent double beat and guidance raise has not helped out this stock. There is a gap fill dating back to November of 2022 with hardly any strong support zones in sight. The death cross which just occurred should add further downward pressure to this already beaten up stock. I will turn long on NYSE:HIMS once the first level of support is reached (around $6.20). I will add on the way down as the stock approaches the gap fill. The increased guidance and double beat proves this may be a long-term winner, however, in the short-term there is more room to fall.
DE falling into undervalued territory / Favorable Earnings LONGDE on the 4H chart is now setup for a long trade. It is now positioned just above a long term
anchored VWAP to which a stop loss can be set just below @ 390. DE was falling before
favorable earnings and has not yet reversed. I see this as an opportunity to trade an
industrial blue chip taking entry well below fair value and so a bargain.
I will get a mixture of a handfulof stock shares and a single option 4 months to expiration. The
target is selected to be 445 at the upper Bollinger bands confluent with the second deviation
line of the anchored VWAP. This is about 13% upside- while the option's profit potential is
substantially higher. If you would like to know the details of the call option leave a comment. (
if this idea is of interest considering liking and following :)
Empowering Financially Deprived Female Traders: A Letter of Hope
Introduction
Dear Fellow Trader,
I hope this letter finds you in good health and spirits, despite the challenges you might be facing on your journey as a financially deprived female trader. I want you to know that you are not alone in this struggle, and your determination to navigate the world of trading is truly inspiring. In this letter, I aim to offer you guidance, support, and practical insights to help you overcome the hurdles and seize opportunities in the trading landscape.
Acknowledging Your Strength
First and foremost, let me commend your courage. Being a female trader in a field traditionally dominated by men is an accomplishment in itself. Your presence challenges stereotypes and contributes to the diversification of the trading world. Embrace your uniqueness and the fresh perspectives you bring to the table.
The Power of Education
Education is your greatest asset. In a rapidly evolving market, staying updated with the latest trends, tools, and strategies is crucial. Fortunately, the digital age has made education more accessible than ever. Take advantage of online courses, webinars, and educational resources tailored to traders of all experience levels. Knowledge will empower you to make informed decisions and minimize risks.
Building a Support Network
Surround yourself with like-minded individuals who understand your journey. Join trading communities, both online and offline, where you can exchange ideas, seek advice, and share experiences. A strong support network can provide emotional encouragement, practical insights, and valuable connections that can significantly boost your trading career.
Setting Realistic Goals
Dream big, but ground your aspirations in reality. Set achievable short-term and long-term goals that reflect your financial situation, risk tolerance, and market knowledge. Tracking your progress against these goals will help you stay focused and motivated, even during challenging times.
Mastering Risk Management
One of the most critical aspects of trading is managing risk effectively. Protecting your capital should be your top priority. Never invest more than you can afford to lose, and diversify your portfolio to spread risk. Utilize stop-loss orders and position sizing techniques to limit potential losses while allowing room for gains.
Leveraging Technology
Technology has revolutionized trading, leveling the playing field for traders of all backgrounds. Make use of trading platforms, analytical tools, and algorithms to enhance your decision-making process. Automated trading systems can help execute trades even when you’re not actively monitoring the market.
Embracing Resilience
Financial markets are inherently volatile, and losses are a part of the game. What sets successful traders apart is their ability to bounce back from setbacks. Develop resilience by learning from your mistakes, analyzing your failures, and adapting your strategies accordingly. Remember that every loss is a lesson that brings you closer to success.
Continuous Adaptation
Adaptability is key to survival in the trading world. Market conditions change, and strategies that worked before might not be effective today. Stay flexible and open-minded, willing to adjust your approach based on new information and evolving trends.
Seeking Mentorship
Mentorship can provide invaluable guidance based on the firsthand experiences of seasoned traders. Finding a mentor who understands your challenges and aspirations can accelerate your learning curve and help you avoid common pitfalls. Their insights can be a beacon of light during uncertain times.
Navigating Bias and Discrimination
Unfortunately, bias and discrimination still persist in the trading world. As a female trader, you might encounter skepticism or condescension from some quarters. Use these experiences as fuel to prove your capabilities. Let your performance speak louder than any prejudices.
Conclusion
In closing, dear trader, remember that your journey is a testament to your strength, resilience, and determination. The financial struggles you face today do not define your future. With the right knowledge, mindset, and support, you can overcome challenges and achieve success beyond your wildest dreams. Embrace each day as an opportunity to grow, learn, and thrive in the world of trading.
Stay focused, stay hungry, and never lose sight of your potential.
Sincerely,
A Supportive Fellow Trader
Walmart reports bumper earnings, but prices heads lowerWalmart has managed to beat expectations across the board today, with the retailer clearly managing to fare well despite concerns over the potential for an economic slowdown. Compared with Bloomberg numbers, the company has managed to outperform across a host of metrics:
Net revenue: $161.6 billion versus $159.7 billion expected
Adjusted diluted EPS: $1.84 versus $1.70 expected
US same-store sales growth: 6.3% versus 4.04% expected
Sam's Club US stores growth: 5.5% versus $5.58 expected
Walmart US same-store sales growth: 6.40% versus 4.29% expected
Traffic growth: 2.90% versus 1.63% expected
Ticket growth: 3.40% versus 2.00% expected
E-commerce growth: 2.30% versus 1.54% expected
Gross margin: 23.38% versus 23.55% expected
Inventory growth: -5.34% versus -5.54% expected
However, this has done little to help the stock, with price falling back in early trade. Nonetheless, the bullish trend seen over the course of the past two-years does bring confidence that the bulls are going to come back into the fold once again here. As such, watch for a potential bullish reversal for Walmart, with a decline through $153.14 support required to negate that bullish trend.
A Spoonful of CMG looks attractive with Restaurant Sales Up 32%For the three months ending in June 2023, the average restaurant sales of $2.94M were up 7.1% from June 2022 ($2.74M) and 32.4% from the end of 2019 ($2.22M).
The California-based restaurant chain is expected to report $43.38 in EPS for the current fiscal year ending in Dec 2023. The company registers $40.02 in Diluted EPS on a trailing twelve months ending in June 2023, rendering a 46.6x PE multiple.
Multiplying a 46.6x PE multiple to $43.38 in EPS renders a share price of $2021.51 .
Placing the 200 EMA PE multiple of 52.7x to $43.38 in EPS renders a share price of $2286.13 .
UNH can break $600 provided it maintains >20x PE multiple. At $511, UNH shares trade at 21.72x TTM Earnings Per Share of $23.53 for the twelve months ending in June 2023.
The company is expected to report $24.87 in EPS for the current fiscal year, $27.94 in the next fiscal year, and $31.37 in the year after.
The 200D EMA PE Ratio for UNH was 23.20x.
Placing a 21.7x and 23.2x multiple implies a 6% and 13% rally by the end of the current fiscal year. Placing a 21.7x and 23.2x multiple for the subsequent fiscal year's EPS of $27.94 implies a rally of 19% and 27%. Placing a 21.7x and 23.2x multiple for the $31.37, the company is expected to earn in two fiscal years implies shares can rally 33% and 43%, respectively.
$WMT Outperforms $SPY and $XLP: A Weekly Comparative AnalysisDetails:
Walmart ( NYSE:WMT ): Over the weekly time frame, Walmart saw an impressive gain of 22.51%, highlighting a strong trend in its stock performance.
S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY ) : This ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index, a benchmark for 500 of the largest companies in the U.S. stock market. During the same period, AMEX:SPY recorded a gain of 16.17%.
Consumer Staples ( AMEX:XLP ): AMEX:XLP represents the Consumer Staples sector of the S&P 500, focusing on necessities like food, beverages, and household goods. It rose 15.61% in the weekly time frame.
Comparative Analysis:
NYSE:WMT vs. AMEX:SPY : Walmart outperformed the broader market ( AMEX:SPY ) by 6.34%.
NYSE:WMT vs. AMEX:XLP : Walmart's growth outshines the Consumer Staples sector ( AMEX:XLP ) by 6.90%.
Technical Indicators:
50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA): At present, NYSE:WMT is trading above its 50-day EMA, located around the $156.00 price mark. This divergence from the mean value might point to an overextension, particularly since the stock has reached all-time highs for the past five consecutive days.
Bollinger Bands & RSI: Walmart's stock is brushing against the upper Bollinger Band, hinting at possible overbought conditions. This is further corroborated by an RSI nearing 70, signaling that a pullback might be on the horizon.
Conclusion:
The combination of strong weekly gains and the current technical indicators presents a complex picture for $WMT. While the stock's performance has been robust, some signs point to potential overextension. Investors and traders must weigh these factors carefully and consider their strategies accordingly. The data and analysis presented here serve as valuable tools for understanding the stock's dynamics and planning future moves.
$ZOM Potent investment opportunityObserving the trading chart for this particular equity, it's evident that the security has been encapsulated in a range-bound, or "rectangular," pattern since 2018, with the central pivot point firmly established in the $0.20 vicinity. This technical analysis, combined with strategic stock purchases by the CEO and other insiders, signals a strong vote of confidence in the company's prospects.
When we scrutinize the fundamentals, the recent earnings report paints an encouraging picture: a robust 43% surge in revenue, bringing it to $6.0 million, bolstered by an impressive gross margin of 67%. Additionally, the company's liquidity position remains strong, with $142.4 million on hand, providing ample financial flexibility.
Given this confluence of positive signals, both from a technical and fundamental perspective, there's a compelling case to be made for this stock as a potent investment opportunity at this junction.
Innovation boosts P/E ratios - P/E ration evolvesTechnological Innovation is Compounding
Technological progress has huge impact on the P/E ratios of companies and the S&P 500. Technologically advanced companies naturally have a higher P/E as it's expected from them to have better future earnings. One of the ways better future earnings happen is through efficiency leaps. These efficiency leaps are important to businesses' margins but it all comes down to:
better tech = more efficiency = lower costs = higher earnings = higher P/E
These innovation cycles bring efficiency leaps that are linked to P/E ratio waves.
We can observe in this chart that the P/E ratio has cycles that coincide with innovation cycles. There were, of course, macroeconomic factors and wars that impacted the P/E, but high P/E can be explained by innovation cycles.
We can also see that each innovation cycle will have higher P/E ratios than the previous. By looking at this chart, it feels that the P/E ratios still have room to grow.
BTTR- a volatile pre-earnings high flying penny stock LONGBTTR has been slowly gathering steam since last week. Today the buying momentum
went into high gear with a big jump. This is a penny stock about as volatile as it gets
with its backstop far below current market price. With earnings in two days BTTR could
easily run another 30% turn around and fall. The price action and the MACD speak for
themselves. I will take a small position about 3% of my account with a stop loss of 10%
given the volatility. I will advance the stop loss but give room to account for the volatility.
I would like to make about 20-25% on this trade over 2-3 days and will have TV alerts to
let me know when the tide is about to go out. One alert will be the fade on the Price Momentum
Oscillator while the other price crossing down on the faster HMA.
S&P500 Earnings Dashboard (Confirmed vs Estimates)
Good news are bad news...
I am building a personal dashboard about earnings from S&P500 Index
Here the version 0.1 with the first 20 stocks, other stocks coming soon:
www.tradingview.com
More than half of stocks beat the estimates, this is a good news....
How the dashboard works:
1. Each cell contains the ticker and the percentage of outperforming or not the estimate
2. Further statistics in the table headline, such as how many stocks are beating or not the estimates and how much.
NKTR High Tight Flag- Pre-Earnings High Flyer LONGNKTR is due for earnings on August 8th. The price from the opening bell on the 7th
pump nearly 100% to over $1.00 and then faded by a couple of cents.
The Price Momentum Oscillator and ZL MACD indicators tracked the high velocity
action into a high tight type bull falg which is often considered to be predictive
of another leg up of similar magnitude. I will be watching this in the premarket
upcoming and also at the report of earnings. I hope to catch a decent ride.
If I do get it I will quit the ride as soon as the indicators flip signals. This could
be a good one. Buyer anticipation and sentiment could yield great profit in little
time the money is exposed to the market.
AMRX Post Earnings High Flyer - a hedge tradefor the next phase of the price action - the details are on the chart. Please comment
if you would like further details.
Shib Prediction for August 2023This is a weekly chart of the possible path shib may take leading to the end of August 2023 after the recent rally. This is to help those that are wondering where it may go even on times of downturns so there won't be any worry or need to panic sell when it drops in price, note this is not 100% and can change depending on the situation. As Shib long as it has support it has a chance to go higher than what you see here.
If we can gain a rally then we can gain higher returns.
CRYPTOCAP:SHIB
COINBASE:SHIBUSD
BINANCE:SHIBUSDT
DIS - Falling Wedge (Bullish)On the larger timeframes, DIS is painting a beautiful falling wedge (bullish) that is lined up with a highly-anticipated ER coming up on 08/09/2023. It is also resting at a huge and major support from 2015 at the $85-86 range.
Ideally, the bullish idea would be for a great ER that will allow DIS to break out above this falling wedge for a run. You can anticipate the run with perhaps longer-dated contracts for call positions.
If you want to be extra safe, definitely consider waiting for a positive ER and ride the momentum as DIS breaks out of the upper trend line to fulfill the bullish falling wedge pattern.
Personally, I would like to see DIS perform well on this ER and reclaim a key price point of $90 to push further back upwards.