BTTR- a volatile pre-earnings high flying penny stock LONGBTTR has been slowly gathering steam since last week. Today the buying momentum
went into high gear with a big jump. This is a penny stock about as volatile as it gets
with its backstop far below current market price. With earnings in two days BTTR could
easily run another 30% turn around and fall. The price action and the MACD speak for
themselves. I will take a small position about 3% of my account with a stop loss of 10%
given the volatility. I will advance the stop loss but give room to account for the volatility.
I would like to make about 20-25% on this trade over 2-3 days and will have TV alerts to
let me know when the tide is about to go out. One alert will be the fade on the Price Momentum
Oscillator while the other price crossing down on the faster HMA.
Earnings
S&P500 Earnings Dashboard (Confirmed vs Estimates)
Good news are bad news...
I am building a personal dashboard about earnings from S&P500 Index
Here the version 0.1 with the first 20 stocks, other stocks coming soon:
www.tradingview.com
More than half of stocks beat the estimates, this is a good news....
How the dashboard works:
1. Each cell contains the ticker and the percentage of outperforming or not the estimate
2. Further statistics in the table headline, such as how many stocks are beating or not the estimates and how much.
NKTR High Tight Flag- Pre-Earnings High Flyer LONGNKTR is due for earnings on August 8th. The price from the opening bell on the 7th
pump nearly 100% to over $1.00 and then faded by a couple of cents.
The Price Momentum Oscillator and ZL MACD indicators tracked the high velocity
action into a high tight type bull falg which is often considered to be predictive
of another leg up of similar magnitude. I will be watching this in the premarket
upcoming and also at the report of earnings. I hope to catch a decent ride.
If I do get it I will quit the ride as soon as the indicators flip signals. This could
be a good one. Buyer anticipation and sentiment could yield great profit in little
time the money is exposed to the market.
AMRX Post Earnings High Flyer - a hedge tradefor the next phase of the price action - the details are on the chart. Please comment
if you would like further details.
Shib Prediction for August 2023This is a weekly chart of the possible path shib may take leading to the end of August 2023 after the recent rally. This is to help those that are wondering where it may go even on times of downturns so there won't be any worry or need to panic sell when it drops in price, note this is not 100% and can change depending on the situation. As Shib long as it has support it has a chance to go higher than what you see here.
If we can gain a rally then we can gain higher returns.
CRYPTOCAP:SHIB
COINBASE:SHIBUSD
BINANCE:SHIBUSDT
DIS - Falling Wedge (Bullish)On the larger timeframes, DIS is painting a beautiful falling wedge (bullish) that is lined up with a highly-anticipated ER coming up on 08/09/2023. It is also resting at a huge and major support from 2015 at the $85-86 range.
Ideally, the bullish idea would be for a great ER that will allow DIS to break out above this falling wedge for a run. You can anticipate the run with perhaps longer-dated contracts for call positions.
If you want to be extra safe, definitely consider waiting for a positive ER and ride the momentum as DIS breaks out of the upper trend line to fulfill the bullish falling wedge pattern.
Personally, I would like to see DIS perform well on this ER and reclaim a key price point of $90 to push further back upwards.
AAPL Buy Long on Pullback?AAPL has been rock solid this year as illustrated by the daily chart. It is no
surprise that AAPL is Warren Buffets's biggest holding. The earnings were a
top line beat with revenue flat. New iPhone sales are off. The TSLA idea
of dropping price to boost demand and trying to maintain margins will
come into effect. The dip this week is remarkable given the range of those
red candles. Based on VWAP bands, AAPL is overbought and overvalued but
not badly so. Price has dropped under the longest moving average (HMA140)/
This is a small pullback I will use the opportunity to purchase a call option
striking over the money at $205 for mid-November as an intermediate
term veto that AAPL will march consistently higher. Because of this pullback
the options contract will be a bit cheaper and easier from which to achieve
a realized profit.
Moncler: A Stylish Investment on the RiseHello investors,
In this report, we dissect the financial intricacies of a prominent stock, leaving no detail unexplored. From market capitalization and price-to-earnings ratio to revenue conversion and cash reserves, we analyze every facet to equip you with strategic insights. We'll go beyond the numbers and charts, painting a vivid picture of the company's financial health. Moreover will be also sharing with you at the end what is my personal expert opinion and future outlook for the financial details of Moncler.
Moncler is a luxury fashion company with a market capitalization of 16.875 billion EUR. It currently trades at a Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.05, which indicates that investors are willing to pay 31.05 times the company's earnings per share (EPS). The current Basic EPS (TTM) stands at 2.01 EUR.
Now, let's dive into the Revenue to Profit Conversion for the year 2022:
- Total revenue: 100%
- Gross profit: 68%
- EBITDA: 40%
- Net income: 23%
The Revenue to Profit Conversion indicates that Moncler is generating a reasonable amount of revenue, but the conversion of that revenue into profits is somewhat lower. This could be an area of concern for investors, as a higher gross profit and net income conversion would generally be preferred.
Next, let's examine Moncler's financial health based on key financial metrics for the years 2018 to 2022:
- Debt: The company's debt has increased over the years, reaching 912.78 million EUR in 2022. This increasing debt level is a point of caution and needs to be monitored closely, as it may affect the company's financial flexibility.
- Free Cash Flow: Moncler has shown a fluctuating trend in free cash flow, with significant variations from year to year. While the H1 2023 free cash flow stands at 492.72 million EUR, this could impact the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities or return value to shareholders.
- Cash and Equivalents: Moncler has maintained a relatively stable level of cash and equivalents over the years, which provides a degree of liquidity and financial strength.
Now, let's analyze the Financial Position based on the figures from 2022:
- Short-term Assets: 1.62 billion EUR
- Short-term Liabilities: 963.71 million EUR
- Long-term Assets: 3.02 billion EUR
- Long-term Liabilities: 773.31 million EUR
Moncler's financial position seems relatively strong, with a higher value of assets compared to liabilities, both in the short and long term. However, it's important to keep an eye on the company's debt levels and how they might impact its financial position in the future.
Regarding the company's earnings per share (EPS) history and projections:
- EPS in 2020: 1.18 EUR
- EPS in 2021: 1.53 EUR
- EPS in 2022: 2.24 EUR
- H1 2023: 0.54 EUR
Moncler has shown an increasing trend in EPS, which is generally positive. However, the H1 2023 EPS has seen a decline compared to the previous year. This dip could be due to various factors, and it's crucial to closely monitor the reasons behind it to assess its potential impact on future performance.
Now, let's review the financial statements for H1 2022, H2 2022, and H1 2023:
- H1 2022:
- Total revenue: 918.38 million EUR
- Gross profit: 576.21 million EUR
- Operating income: 180.17 million EUR
- Pretax income: 168.54 million EUR
- Net income: 211.25 million EUR
- H2 2022:
- Total revenue: 1.68 billion EUR
- Gross profit: 1.19 billion EUR
- Operating income: 594.38 million EUR
- Pretax income: 578.79 million EUR
- Net income: 395.44 million EUR
- H1 2023:
- Total revenue: 1.14 billion EUR
- Gross profit: 731.59 million EUR
- Operating income: 217.79 million EUR
- Pretax income: 206.47 million EUR
- Net income: 145.35 million EUR
Moncler's financial statements show an overall positive trend in revenue, gross profit, and net income. However, the H1 2023 figures indicate a decline in net income compared to H2 2022. It's essential to assess the reasons behind this decline and evaluate whether it's a short-term setback or a potential cause for concern.
Future Outlook:
As for me, my rating for Moncler stock would be cautiously optimistic. The company has demonstrated strong financials, stable cash reserves, and a consistent revenue stream. The increasing EPS until 2022 indicates growth and profitability.
However, there are some concerns that need to be closely monitored. The rising debt level and fluctuating free cash flow could impact the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives or handle unforeseen economic challenges.
The decline in H1 2023 net income raises questions about the company's performance during this period. To make a more accurate assessment, it's crucial to investigate the reasons behind this decline and evaluate the company's strategies for addressing potential challenges.
In conclusion, Moncler appears to be a solid luxury fashion company with growth potential, but potential investors should conduct thorough research and analysis to make informed decisions. The financial health and future outlook should be continually monitored, considering the evolving market conditions and economic landscape.
Disclaimer : Please note that the future behavior of the stock is subject to market volatility, industry trends, and global economic conditions. I highly recommend you guys staying updated with the company's quarterly reports and financial statements for a more accurate evaluation of its performance and prospects. Additionally, all of the information that I used can be found in the trading view app related to MONC financial details.
Shib inu 2023 closingShib inu expectation for 2023 closing - It's going up, due to the recent activity of Shib inu and the expectation for the coming month I forecast that it's going to be a bumpy ride but a well worth ride none the less, Started the 3rd of August and expected to rise to the 0.00001700 falling back down on 20th of September and declining all the way to October - Shib will have a open window for Highs, best set your sell off for those said points mentioned.
Pre-Earnings Run in $UPSTNASDAQ:UPST has been running up speculatively after completing its bottom. It has mostly retail groups and smaller funds holding so that is why the stock has up and down days in an irrational trend pattern often. HFTs are in the mix regularly inspiring the speculation.
The company reports Monday of next week. Looks like Pro Traders used a swing trading earnings strategy and some took profits ahead of the report.
The stock has a low percentage of the shares held by institutions, so emotional trading candlestick patterns are problematic at times. It's important to buy and sell with the Pro Trader patterns in speculative stocks.
SQ WVAP Breakdown into Earnings LONGOn the 30- minute chart BLOCK ( SQ) broke down from a VWAP pop last week into
a drop this week to earnings which were a 7% beat on earnings. MACD lines are about
to cross. he lower RS line in green is showing bullish divergence while the mass index
signal is in the reversal zone looking to trigger with a fall. Finally the narrow range or
flat candlebars at the end of the price action show the reversal is impending.
I see this as a fade into good earnings worthy of a reversal long and so I will take that trade.
DKNG Earning Pop?I was originally afraid of this but with ER tomorrow and us taking sell-side liquidity, I just see this ready to run into next week. Looking to buy calls on a break of $30.60 or on a pullback to our golden zone. Really like this one and was tracking it since our most recent distribution phase beginning on June 25.
GBP/JPY (Aug-2-23)GBP/JPY (Aug-2-23)
institutions are trying to make the most they can off of this pair they have been playing this move for months now if you go back an look at the volatility and and price action they correlate with legal market manipulation and ,ore volume move recently shows they have bought more longer positions at this area which means now is the golden time to buy for long term.
Is the Market Deluding Itself with a Soft Landing Fantasy?As markets surge against expectations, many are starting to believe that the impossible might unfold. The unusually low fund allocation to equities reflects a market sentiment plagued by fear, yet mega caps are continuing to rise against expectations, making some investors feel left behind. With GDP figures beating expectations and headline inflation plummeting, markets are now starting to believe the soft landing narrative. Can the Federal Reserve, after decades of economic engineering, finally dodge a recession? The bond market remains skeptical.
When the yield curve inverted, everyone thought a recession was imminent. However, many overlook the lag between the onset of the inversion and an actual recession. Depending on historical context, a recession can either hit while the yield curve remains inverted or much later, once it has normalised. Thus, relying solely on the yield curve as a recession indicator can be misleading.
Nevertheless, history has consistently shown that a recession follows the inversion at some point. However, the human psyche is notoriously impatient. If a predicted event doesn't manifest promptly, the market tends to discount its possibility. Remember, most people buy at tops and sell at bottoms. So, the real question isn't whether a recession will happen, but rather when.
Why and When Could a Recession Happen?
The Federal Reserve holds significant influence over this timeline. As long as interest rates hover around 5.5%, the recession clock ticks faster. With headline inflation plummeting (orange line) and inflation expectations paralleling this descent (blue line), we must understand what caused inflation initially to gauge where it's headed.
The inflationary surge was mostly driven by the excessive expansion of the money supply. Examining the first derivative of the US money supply (M2) shows a rapid expansion followed by a subsequent decline. Comparing the growth rate of the money supply (yellow line) with the CPI year-over-year (orange line) reveals a 16-month lag. If this lag remains consistent, there's significant potential downside to inflation.
Yet, the Fed continues to hike rates, despite projections of disinflation and deflation. This is because the Fed's job isn't to predict the future, but to respond to current data. Indicators showing a robust labor market and elevated Core PCE caution against prematurely reducing rates. It would be wise for the Fed to await signs of weakening in these indicators before contemplating rate cuts.
This could potentially take a while to materialise, especially since unemployment doesn't seem poised to weaken in the immediate future. Unlike previous business cycles, the current situation stands out due to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data. There remains a significant number of job openings for every unemployed individual. This bolsters the resilience of the labor market, making rate cuts less probable.
Furthermore, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) - a lagging indicator - remains historically high and resilient. Powell has emphasised the Fed's intent to avoid repeating the same mistakes made in the '70s, suggesting we should expect higher rates for longer in order to permanently get Core PCE to 2%. He's also highlighted the relative ease of stimulating the economy out of a recession compared to raising rates, implying it might be more straightforward for the Fed to rein in Core PCE by inducing a recession.
Similarly, the government can't afford the risk of the Fed raising rates later on. Considering the government's dependency on low-cost borrowing to manage interest payments on existing debts, higher future rates could pose a big challenge. Fortunately, the Fed uses the Reverse Repo (blue line) as a strategic tool to bypass any potential liquidity crisis until they are able to finance the government's balance sheet (orange line) with cheap debt once again.
Given that interest expenses are nearing 1 trillion USD, the Fed will inevitably have to cut rates to zero and initiate Quantitative Easing (QE) in the future. Remember, the sole limitation to Keynesian economics is inflation. Hence, it's logical for the Fed to avoid risking a resurgence of inflation. In essence, a recession might be essential for the Fed's future assistance to the government.
Deciphering the Stock Market's Puzzle
Despite Powell's frequent emphasis on a 'higher for longer' stance, the market remains skeptical. This is alarming, especially as the full implications of a 5.5% rate haven't been fully experienced by the economy. Once they manifest, job openings will plummet, unemployment figures will surge, and the 'soft landing' illusion might crumble. Historically, such scenarios are common when real rates reach unsustainable levels.
Fortunately for investors, there seems to be room for the AI bubble to continue. Markets typically peak about a month before a sustained increase in unemployment. Hence, forward-looking unemployment indicators like job openings, initial claims (blue line), and continued claims (orange line) are crucial for those wishing to divest before a potential market downturn.
In the current scenario, it might be wise for investors to stay away from higher-risk assets like small caps and cryptocurrencies. Historically, these haven't performed as well as mega caps during liquidity crunches. Investors might want to reconsider taking on additional risks unless there's a sustained surge in global liquidity (yellow line).
Conclusion: A Time for Caution and Opportunity
In conclusion, even though a recession seems inevitable, mega caps may continue their upward trend until the labor market reveals signs of distress. Therefore, it's crucial for investors to closely watch leading unemployment indicators and central bank balance sheets to ensure they're well-positioned for both the upcoming market downturn and the subsequent recovery.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Cisco Pulls Back After JumpingThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has been moving lately, and today we’ll consider index member Cisco Systems.
The networking giant spent about a year trapped below the $52 area. That zone marked a top in April, June and early this month. However CSCO broke above it on July 19 and ran to a new 52-week high. It retreated on Friday to hold the earlier peak. Old resistance may have become new support.
Second, the pullback brought CSCO back to its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). The 8-day EMA remains also remains above the 21-day EMA. Those points may suggest its recent short-term uptrend remains in effect.
Finally, the stock rallied after its last two earnings reports. Will that positive history provide a tailwind for the shares with the next set of numbers due on August 16?
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DASH a quick play on earnings LONGDASH has earnings upcoming in two trading days. Since the last earnings three months
ago, on the 4H chart, DASH looks to be very healthy and decidedly bullish. The nearly
continuous MACD lines above the histogram say it all. The PVT shows occasional pullbacks
of the price volume product which are the ideal entries for a long-term swing trader or
investor. Earnings could beat or disappoint seemingly a beat is more likely. Price just completed
a mini pullback and resumed the trend. The " upper Bollinger band walk" is highly
bullish. I see a long trade of perhaps 5% upside with little risk. An options trade with
5 days DTE expiring 8/4 could have far more significant profit carefully constructed to
limit risk with relatively wider stop loss. Good luck to all who elect to take this trade.
TSLA Weekly Longterm Pre-EarningsTSLA on the weekly chart appears to be in a widening and ascending channel somewhat
suggestive of a megaphone. At the same time it is below heavy resistance at 360 which is
the same level as two standard deviations above the mean VWAP line anchored back to
November 2021. The resistance zone is the highs of November 2021 and late March / early
April 2022. The double RSI indicator shows RS rising on the higher monthly time frame slowly
and steadily while the RS on the lower daily time frame has peaked at 88 and fallen below 80
consistent with bearish divergence. The zero-lag MACD indicator shows the lines perhaps
impending a cross at an amplitude well extended above the histogram. Price is high in
that widening ascending channel.
Overall, I conclude that TSLA is a hold right now as it could be impending a significant reversal
in the weeks ahead. A hold would mean not to sell existing positions nor take new positions
for the time being unless one is an intraday or short time frame swing trader or stocks
or options. With an earnings report impending, TSLA volatility is likely to jump in one direction
or the other.
Tesla 2019 Vs 2023 Breakout Comparison Tesla 2019 Vs 2023
- Repeat Megaphone pattern?
- Repeat Megaphone breakout?
- Repeat 10% pull back before major move?
If we confidently break through and close above resistance or get a 10% pull back, it could be worth putting in place a position with a stop under resistance or a tighter stop if its the 10% pull back scenario.
We could still revisit the 200 Daily SMA... and we need to be aware of that. That's why you have a stop because the 200 DSMA is idyllic but given the similarities of this pattern, it could play out and it might be worth taking a position SUBJECT TO having a tight stop under the resistance level (once we break above it) or having a tight stop under the 10% decline entry.
It will be interesting to see how this chart plays out. It could hardly be as exponential as 2019? but it could be a nice move.
PUKA
$TSLA Down on Over-SpeculationNASDAQ:TSLA reported earnings after market close yesterday. Pro traders took profits before the close as the run became technically overextended. It gapped down today, but not on the extreme volume we'd expect from the usual HFT activity around earnings.
Profit and Operating margins are decreasing quarter over quarter, but revenues and net income are increasing.
This is not so much an onslaught of sellers but profit-taking along with a lack of buyers at this price range. As occurs often for this high-profile yet important EV company, the stock is over-speculated and needs to pattern out the excess. It could test the next support levels, but ultimately it's likely to head sideways as it challenges the resistance from Aug-Oct of last year...barring any surprises from Musk ;)
Dark Pool Buy Zones are in the bottom formation. The question is: will those buy zones be moved up or not?
Tesla's Earnings: In the Rearview Mirror, Riding High!With Tesla's earnings now behind us, it's time to reevaluate our confidence in the company. I'm beginning to think that gross margins won't hold the same significance anymore, given Tesla's dominant position in the EV charging industry. Likewise, the recent announcement regarding " early talks for FSD licensing " seems sufficient to propel the stock price to all-time highs. Elon wouldn't have made this announcement unless the discussions had reached a mature stage. In my view, this is the ChatGPT moment for Tesla.
In the short term, we might observe consolidation around the multi-year breakout levels. However, my belief is firmly rooted in the long-term perspective, where I expect the trend to continue upward, as long as the macro environment remains supportive.