Wells Fargo are we good to participate in the banking industry?Hi guys ,off to our next opportuntiy WFC , currently one of the bigger banks in the US which have some good upside potential!
Fundamentals :
Financial Performance
In the third quarter of 2024, Wells Fargo reported a net income of $5.1 billion.
This performance reflects the company's resilience and adaptability in a dynamic economic environment.
Wells Fargo offers a comprehensive range of services, including banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, leasing, and credit cards. The company operates approximately 5,200 branches and 13,000 ATMs, serving one in three U.S. households and more than 10% of small businesses in the U.S.
The company has been under a regulator-imposed asset cap of approximately $1.95 trillion since February 2018, following past regulatory issues. There is anticipation that this cap may be lifted in 2025, which could significantly enhance Wells Fargo's growth and profitability.
Wells Fargo remains a significant player in the financial services industry, demonstrating both strengths and challenges. The company's extensive range of services and substantial asset base position it well for future opportunities, while ongoing regulatory and market challenges require careful navigation.
Entry : On market open
Target: 87.15
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
Earnings
Morgan Stanley, can we follow up on great earnings call?Hi guys, we are next looking into Morgan Stanley. Currently they had a fantastic 2024 , with great growth and great beat over their earnings calls.
Fundamental overview :
Morgan Stanley has adopted a bullish stance on U.S. equities, forecasting the S&P 500 to potentially reach 7,400 by 2025. This optimism is based on anticipated solid earnings growth and accommodative monetary policy, which could enhance the firm's equity trading and investment advisory revenues.
Increased Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Activity
The return of Donald Trump to the White House is expected to stimulate a surge in M&A activity, driven by lower borrowing costs and deregulation. Morgan Stanley predicts a 50% increase in M&A deals in 2025 compared to the previous year, which would significantly boost its advisory and underwriting services.
In fixed income, Morgan Stanley identifies securitized credit, particularly U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS), as a promising area. The firm believes that moderating monetary policy, coupled with strong consumer and corporate balance sheets, will create favorable conditions for this sector, potentially enhancing its fixed income revenues.
Technical Overview :
Currently we have surpassed a strong resistance line which has been upgraded to a supprot line because of the strong growth at 2024. Currently this Ascending channel should take us to a 2x price level from 83 level to 166 level.
Entry: 127
Target : 166
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
Carvana - continuation of a strong sell off?Hi guys , we would be taking a look into CARVANA Short position.
Fundamentals :
1. High Debt Levels
Carvana's capital-intensive business model, combined with aggressive expansion, has led to a substantial accumulation of debt. The company has issued high-interest debt to finance operations, acquisitions, and inventory growth. This debt burden poses a risk, especially in a rising interest rate environment, as refinancing could become more expensive or unattainable.
2. Profitability Concerns
Despite significant revenue growth over the years, Carvana has consistently struggled to achieve profitability. Operating losses remain high, and the company’s path to sustainable positive earnings remains uncertain. Elevated operating costs, including vehicle reconditioning, marketing, and logistics, have weighed heavily on margins.
3. Cash Flow Problems
Carvana has a history of negative free cash flow, reflecting its inability to generate sufficient cash from operations to fund its business activities. This reliance on external financing is unsustainable in the long term and could lead to liquidity issues if the company fails to improve its cash flow position.
4. Declining Market Sentiment
Carvana’s stock has been highly volatile, experiencing dramatic price swings due to market concerns over its financial stability and business model. Analysts and investors have expressed skepticism about the company's ability to weather economic downturns, especially as demand for used vehicles normalizes post-pandemic.
5. Macroeconomic Challenges
The broader macroeconomic environment has added pressure to Carvana’s business. Rising interest rates have made vehicle financing more expensive for consumers, potentially dampening demand for used cars. Additionally, inflationary pressures on operational costs and declining vehicle prices further strain Carvana’s already thin margins.
6. Competitive Pressure
Carvana operates in a highly competitive market, facing established players like CarMax and emerging online-only platforms. The intense competition has limited its pricing power, forcing the company to invest heavily in customer acquisition and retention, further straining profitability.
7. Regulatory and Legal Risks
The company has faced legal challenges, including consumer complaints and regulatory scrutiny over its vehicle titling and registration practices. Such issues could lead to reputational damage, fines, or increased compliance costs.
Technical Spectrum:
They reached a good strong upper level, and then failed to deliver and sustain around that area.
Entry: 176$
Target: 130$
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
COSTCO - Time to break above and beyond the All time HighHi guys , today we are going to overview one of the retail giants COSTCO.
Fundamentals :
Revenue Growth and Profitability :
Consistent Revenue Growth: Costco has demonstrated steady revenue growth, driven by an expanding membership base, increased same-store sales, and international expansion.
Profit Margins: While Costco operates with low gross margins due to its focus on low pricing, its operating margins benefit significantly from recurring membership income. This structure ensures financial stability even in competitive environments.
Financial Health:
Balance Sheet Strength: Costco has a strong balance sheet with manageable debt levels and ample liquidity. Its ability to generate robust free cash flow supports both operations and shareholder returns.
Dividend Growth: Costco pays a reliable dividend, which has seen consistent growth over the years. Additionally, the company occasionally issues special dividends, highlighting its commitment to returning value to shareholders
Valuation Metrics:
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Costco often trades at a premium valuation compared to peers due to its consistent performance and strong brand equity.
Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: Reflecting its robust revenue generation capabilities, Costco’s P/S ratio is higher than the retail industry average but supported by predictable growth.
And some potential risks : Thin Margins: Costco’s low-margin strategy leaves little room for error, and rising costs (e.g., labor, logistics) could pressure profitability.
Economic Sensitivity: While generally resilient, Costco could face challenges if economic conditions significantly impact discretionary spending or if competition intensifies.
Foreign Exchange Risk: With international operations, Costco is exposed to currency fluctuations that could affect earnings.
Technical analysis : The company has been running on a very healthy uptrend throughought 2024 and has had 4 green earning seasons which gives a positive bullish trend conversion,with analysists focusing on another green earnings in their Q4 report this gives us the necessary confirmations for a up-trend:
Entry has been made at : 921
Target will be above the ATH : 1030
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
Brief overview ahead of the $AMD earningsToday's NASDAQ:AMD earnings report, due after market close, promises to be intriguing
Historically, the movement after earnings over the last 10 years has averaged around +/-10.2%
Theoretically, NASDAQ:AMD could significantly benefit from the DeepSeek news, given that AMD has integrated the advanced DeepSeek-V3 model into its Instinct MI300X GPUs. However, this development has not yet been reflected in AMD's stock price
A drop in the stock price post-earnings could set up an interesting scenario. The bullish order block between $93-$102 on Chart 1 might offer a prime entry point for a bounce-back
Over the past five years, NASDAQ:AMD 's fundamental ratios shown in Chart 2 have generally looked solid. However, the current P/S ratio of 7.7 could ideally decrease a bit for better valuation
It's also worth noting that other chip stocks like NASDAQ:ASML and $RLCX saw positive movements post-earnings last week, though this doesn't guarantee a similar outcome for NASDAQ:AMD
$HSY: A Potential Bargain for Dividend InvestorsThe chocolate giant NYSE:HSY might be approaching a price bottom ahead of Thursday's earnings
The stock of The Hershey Company ( NYSE:HSY ) has now triggered my favorite technical indicator, a Bollinger Bands and RSI oversold signal on a weekly chart (see Chart 1)
This suggests that we might see a price reversal soon if the company effectively addresses its current challenges
Earnings Expectations and Volatility:
The options market anticipates a price movement of approximately +/-3.8% following Thursday's earnings
Recent Price Pressures:
- Surging Cocoa Prices:
Cocoa prices have skyrocketed (see Chart 2), but I believe this might be a bubble ready to burst as such short-term sharp rises are usually not sustainable
- Declining Demand:
There's been a noticeable decrease in sweets consumption, influenced by the rising trend of weight loss medications. I can't imagine that humanity will be deprived of sweets forever 😅
Fundamental Insights:
Chart 3 highlights key financial metrics for NYSE:HSY :
- Market Capitalization: ~$30 billion
- Cash Reserves: Approximately $600 million
- Debt: $5.6 billion, indicating a manageable financial structure for a company of Hershey's stature to weather further market turbulence
- P/E Ratio: Now at 17, which starts to look appealing
- Dividend Yield: At 3.7%, it's particularly attractive for European investors seeking income
Investment Considerations:
Given that this potential reversal signal appears on a weekly chart, expect significant volatility around the earnings announcement
Also the bottoming process can take several months and a capitulation event after earnings could be possible
However, with these signals, an attempt at a price recovery around earnings seems quite probable
ARM - Great AI, Great Financials,formulating Ascending ChannelHi guys we would be looking into ARM Holdings - some fundamentals below
Arm Holdings plc (ARM) has demonstrated impressive financial performance, driven by its strategic positioning in the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence (AI) sector. The company's energy-efficient chip designs have become integral to AI applications, leading to significant revenue growth and increased market valuation.
In the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, Arm reported a 47% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $928 million for the fourth quarter. This surge was primarily due to record-high royalty revenues, with the latest Armv9 technology contributing around 20% of these royalties.
Analysts have recognized Arm's strong market position. Raymond James initiated coverage with an "overweight" rating and a price target of $160, citing Arm's significant role in generative AI and its robust ecosystem.
Similarly, Wells Fargo set a price target of $155, highlighting the transition to Arm's latest technology as a key revenue driver.
Arm's inclusion in the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index reflects its growing prominence in the semiconductor industry. The company's American depositary receipts have surged approximately 150% since its Nasdaq debut, underscoring investor confidence in its growth trajectory.
Overall, Arm's strategic focus on AI and its innovative chip designs have positioned the company for sustained financial success, making it an attractive consideration for investors seeking exposure to the burgeoning AI market.
Technicals - We have formulated a great Ascending Channel, which is looking to capitalize on great earnings which is due to tomorrow -
Entry: 155
Target: 180 - The Target is just below the strong resistance level which is around 190 mark.
GOOGLE $GOOG | AD DOLLARS & AI POWER, GOOGLE'S EARNINGS Feb4'25GOOGLE NASDAQ:GOOG | AD DOLLARS & AI POWER, GOOGLE'S EARNINGS ALPHABET'S EARNINGS Feb4'25
Google Zones:
Google BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $199.00 - $215.00
Google DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $193.50 - $199.00
Google SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $180.00 - $193.50
Google Trends:
Google Weekly Trend: Bullish
Google Daily Trend: Bullish
Google 4H Trend: Bullish
Google 1H Trend: Bullish
NASDAQ:GOOG earnings are set for Tuesday, Feb 4 (post-market), will the earnings report fuel further upside, or is a pullback on the horizon? All of my timeframes on my indicator show bullish trends. NASDAQ:GOOG has been in a strong uptrend since early December, gaining ~15% since Dec 9. Leading up to earnings, price formed an ascending pattern, breaking out past resistance on Jan 30. My bullish zone projects a ~6% upside, while the bearish zone mirrors this range.
I am linking my previous NASDAQ:GOOG analysis, from nearly a year ago.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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Eternal PainWill Virgin Galactic ever provide share holders with anything but pain?
The board is no help as they continue to issue more shares. However; there is a potential bright future.
Currently the equity value of the company is lower than the liquidation value of the firm. The enormous cash burn is slowing as most of the capex necessary for flights is ready to go. Given their booking backlog, once they start a solid rhythm a lot of cash is going to be generated.
Look at their most recent investor presentation. With conservative estimates when (if) regular flights begin one spaceport will generate $500m per annum in EBIT [ ] With profits and any sort of multiple on earnings the future could be galactic.
My hopium induced reason for owning this since $5.90 is one day in the next 3-5 years this could be a legitimate 100+ bagger. Space is the ultimate growth arena and with SpaceX focused on mars and industrial matters, Blue Origin no where to be found, the moat is large and the industry is wide open.
Good Set up for I am not interested in Buying due to overvaluedGood setup... But i am not gonna buy it here. My buy sentiment is around its monthly support around 550
how it will happen?
let's dua for negative fundamentals which is expected soon. Let's see on 6 October.
A weekly close below the trialngle will lead to my Zone for buy.
A weekly close above the trialngle (if fundamentals are positive) will move it further bullish.
Mega cap earnings watchMega cap earnings get started today. Here's a comparison chart of META, TSLA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG & AMZN. With the ticker Tracker MFI oscillator on the 1 day ext chart 3 month view. Below is the list of dates and times of their earnings release.
META 1/29 4:05pm
Consensus
EPS = 6.68
Revenue = 46.98 B
TSLA 1/29 4:05pm
Consensus
EPS = .75
Revenue = 27.61 B
MSFT 1/29 4:05pm
Consensus
EPS = 3.11
Revenue = 68.75 B
AAPL 1/30 4:30pm
Consensus
EPS = 2.36
Revenue = 124.1 B
GOOG 2/4 4:05pm
Consensus
EPS = 2.12
Revenue = 81.38 B
AMZN 2/6 4pm
Consensus
EPS = 1.52
Revenue = 187.13 B
AAPL earnings next ThursdayApple Q1 earnings are on Thursday 1/30 at 4:30pm. Apple (AAPL) reported earnings of 1.64 per share on revenue of 94.93 billion for Q4 ending September 2024. The consensus earnings estimate was 1.49 per share on revenue of 94.48 billion. The company beat expectations by 0.61% while revenue grew 6.07% on a year-over-year basis.
The company said during its conference call it expects Q1 revenue to grow in the low to mid-single digits, or revenue of approximately 120.77 billion to 128.54 billion with gross margins of 46.0% to 47.0%, which calculates to earnings of approximately 2.19 to 2.47 per share.
This long AAPL trade idea is based off SMA200 support at 221, RSI is oversold and it's printing a bullish reversal hammer this morning. Therefore, it's a great long entry position with low risk & high probability, heading into earnings on next Thursday.
Q1 consensus:
EPS = 2.36
Revenue = 124.1 B
SMA200 = 221
Trade idea:
long = 222
stop = 219
profit = 240
Options data:
1/31 expiry
Put Volume Total 10,866
Call Volume Total 25,128
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.43
Put Open Interest Total 76,428
Call Open Interest Total 126,251
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.61
2/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 3,441
Call Volume Total 11,700
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.29
Put Open Interest Total 224,398
Call Open Interest Total 315,905
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.71
3/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 2,008
Call Volume Total 12,900
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.16
Put Open Interest Total 298,306
Call Open Interest Total 317,092
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.94
XOM - preparation for great earnings!Hi guys we would be looking at XOM, just before their earnings! Let's take a look into the fundamentals
Robust Financial Performance
Exxon Mobil has demonstrated resilience with consistent earnings growth and strong cash flow generation, even amidst fluctuating energy prices. The company’s disciplined capital allocation strategy and cost-management initiatives have positioned it well to maximize shareholder returns.
Dividend Stability and Yield
XOM remains a top choice for income-focused investors, maintaining its status as a Dividend Aristocrat. The company’s strong dividend history reflects its commitment to rewarding shareholders, which further enhances investor confidence.
Favorable Market Conditions
Global energy demand remains on an upward trajectory, fueled by economic recovery and industrial activity. Exxon Mobil's diversified portfolio across oil, natural gas, and chemical sectors allows it to capitalize on these trends, while its focus on high-margin projects strengthens profitability.
Strategic Investments in Growth
Exxon Mobil’s ongoing investments in key growth areas, such as Guyana's offshore assets, low-carbon technologies, and LNG production, position it for long-term growth. These projects are expected to generate substantial returns and bolster the company’s competitive edge in the energy sector.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
Many analysts have revised their price targets for XOM upwards, citing its strong fundamentals, operational efficiency, and capacity to adapt to evolving energy trends. This bullish sentiment reflects the broader market's optimism regarding Exxon Mobil's prospects.
Energy Transition Opportunities
While maintaining its core oil and gas operations, Exxon Mobil has also been actively investing in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies and other low-emission energy solutions. These initiatives align with global sustainability goals and offer new revenue streams for the company.
Technicals are written on the chart we are sitting on the upper support block which gives us an indication that we would move into the resistance level which is where our target is going to be situated
Entry: 110
Target: 123.50
Possible semiconductor $SMH deals on the horizonIf the Semiconductor Index NASDAQ:SMH in chart 1 fails to maintain the bullish order block at 237-246, which currently looks challenging, there's a potential for a countermovement upwards if it reaches the next support level between 214-224
This scenario could present a short term buying opportunity in some semiconductors stocks for those looking to go long
With earnings reports for NASDAQ:ASML , NASDAQ:AMD , and NASDAQ:LRCX due within the next 8 days, these stocks could offer strategic entry points for a possible bounce:
- NASDAQ:ASML : Bullish order block between $564-$600 (Chart 2)
- NASDAQ:AMD : Bullish order block between $93-$102 (Chart 3)
- NASDAQ:LRCX : Bullish order block between $57-$64 (Chart 4)
These levels could serve as good opportunities for short-term investments, provided you monitor the market closely after the earnings announcements
If any of these reach the target areas in the next few days, I will provide an update here
Expensive Going into EarningsA lot of Tesla's future earnings potential is already priced into the stock, particularly with pre-revenue products like Optimus and Robo-taxis. This has led to an expensive stock heading into earnings, with both the P/E and P/S ratios higher than historical averages. While it's true that these ratios aren't at all-time highs, the current PEG ratio raises some concerns. Back in 2022, Tesla's revenue and earnings growth were higher, justifying a higher P/E and P/S multiple. However, with growth now flat year-over-year, the market cap seems to be reflecting expectations of significant future earnings growth beyond the next year or two. One possible reason for this could be Trump's return to office might speed up the rollout of Robo-taxi revenue. Still, this leaves less room for error, and any delay or misstep in achieving the next phase of revenue and earnings growth could put pressure on the stock, especially as Tesla continues to rely on growing its EV sales cash flow engine.
RingCentral | RNG | Long at $35.17RingCentral NYSE:RNG analysis:
The Good:
Revenues grew every from 2017 (~$500 million) to Q3 of 2024 ($2.3 billion) and recently adjusted to a "beat" for 2024 as a whole.
Gross profit in Q3 of 2024 was $1.6 billion and has increased every year since 2019
Price-to-sales: 1.3x (industry average 5.7x)
Rising free cash flow
EBITDA positive at $190 million in Q3 of 2024
From a technical analysis perspective, my historical simple moving average has converged with the price which often leads to a future share price increase. However, it could trade sideways for a while before breaking through.
The Bad:
Competition, especially Microsoft Teams and other similar products in the market reducing or eliminating growth (although, this hasn't happened just yet).
Recent insider selling
Debt: $1.58 billion
At $35.17, NYSE:RNG is in a personal buy zone. If there is a dip in the price, I anticipate the price gap in the low $30's to be filled or in a dire situation, a drop to the mid-$20's.
Targets:
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
$200.00 (if momentum kicks for a long-term outlook)
Hims & Hers - Cheap Health saftyNYSE:HIMS is a platform in the US that takes care of peoples health. They help with everything from skincare to mental or physical treatment. The app provides free licensed providers consultations. Which i think is a gamer breaker in the US, since the cost from going to the doctors is so high, after what i have heard.
The price has broken through two old tops, one in 2021 and one in 2024, and now those tops are used as a bottom. Plus the RSI is turning just a little lower then the SMA. This indicates a bull run.
The Q3 earnings was doubled the expected, and since the price can go a lot over the indicators as seen in 2021 it could go on the rocket ship again
WM Technology | MAPS | Long at $1.00WM Technology NASDAQ:MAPS provides ecommerce and compliance software solutions to retailers and brands in cannabis market in the United States and internationally. After it's de-SPAC in 2020, it soared to $29.50 and now can be found for around $1.00. It's been consolidating at these lows for almost two years, and it may be gaining algorithmic traction for a move soon based on my selected simple moving average (SMA). Often (but not always), when this SMA gets close to the price, there is a pop to the historical SMA. Currently, it is in a personal buy zone at $1.00.
Target #1 = $1.50
Target #2 = $2.00
RAMA STEEL A MULTI BAGGER IN THE MAKINGRama Steel Tubes Limited has demonstrated notable developments recently:
Sales Growth: In Q2 FY25, the company reported a sales volume of 50,921.67 tons, marking a 42.32% year-over-year increase and a 36.28% rise from the previous quarter.
Green Energy Initiatives: Rama Steel Tubes has entered the renewable energy sector by partnering with Onix Renewable Ltd. to supply steel structures and single-axis trackers for solar projects. Additionally, the company incorporated a wholly-owned subsidiary, ONIX IPP Pvt. Ltd., to focus on green energy ventures.
Market Performance: The stock has experienced significant movements, including a 38% surge over three sessions in September 2024, adding approximately ₹500 crore to its market capitalization.
Financial performance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 (Q2 FY25) is as follows:
1)Sales Volume: The company reported a sales volume of 50,921.67 tons in Q2 FY25, a 42.32% increase compared to 35,780.33 tons in Q2 FY24.
2)Revenue: The revenue for Q2 FY25 stood at ₹263.05 crore, up 29.37% from ₹203.33 crore in the same quarter the previous year.
Rama Steel Tubes Limited has been actively reducing its debt levels over recent years, reflecting a strategic move to strengthen its financial health. Here's a detailed overview:
1)Total Debt:
As of March 2024, the company's total debt stood at ₹144 crore, a 25.12% reduction from ₹193 crore in March 2023.
2) Debt-to-Equity Ratio:
The debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 0.43 in March 2024 from 0.77 in March 2023, indicating a significant reduction in leverage.
3)Net Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio:
The company has improved its Net Debt-to-EBITDA ratio over the years, showcasing better debt management relative to earnings.
These metrics highlight Rama Steel Tubes Limited's commitment to reducing debt and enhancing financial stability.
ITS A REAL HIDDEN GEM 💎
$MSFT Iron Condor Trade Idea for the Pre-Earnings NoiseNASDAQ:MSFT Iron Condor, PRE-EARNINGS
1.5:1 Risk:Reward (i.e.: $150:$100)
+1 BUY $435 Call 1/24
-1 SELL $432.5 Call 1/24
-{CURRENT PRICE $423.61}-
-1 SELL $417.5 Put 1/24
+1 $415 Put 1/24
If the trade goes south this one is totally rollable to a $5 spread IC down the road, especially on the day of expiration.
$PCG - Did market just panic dumped the wrong stock?The recent wildfires in California, particularly the Palisades and Eaton Fires in Los Angeles County, have primarily affected Southern California.
This recent wildfire news caused NYSE:PCG to crash alongside NYSE:EIX (which bounced as well).
However, PG&E's service area is predominantly in Northern and Central California. PG&E will not have to pay back the wildfire fund if deemed prudent.
Furthermore, PG&E is a stable utility with monopoly-like dominance in California’s massive market. It benefits from regulated pricing, essential services, wildfire liability caps, and state support for clean energy and infrastructure upgrades. With strong cash flows, improving safety measures, and alignment with decarbonization trends, PG&E offers resilience, growth potential, and a compelling "buy the fake fear" opportunity. Don’t let short-term noise overshadow its solid fundamentals.
So, did market just panic dumped the wrong stock?